ESPN Garber: Patriots simply undergoing a market correction

WoodysGirl

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FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- Bill Belichick, the dour face of the New England Patriots, winced ever so slightly.


The overriding question, concerning the team's less-than-scintillating run defense, had just come wafting out of the Thursday morning news conference crowd.



"Yeah," the head coach said in characteristic monotone, "we're done with the Ravens game. We're on to Pittsburgh."


And so, the discourse moved safely to the Steelers' consistently sound defense and, particularly, the omnipresence of safety Troy Polamalu.



The Patriots, as the sports world well knows, have won all 12 of their games, matching just five other teams in the history of the NFL and putting them within four wins of an unprecedented 16-0 season.



The 9-3 Steelers -- the most formidable challenge remaining on the schedule -- visit Gillette Stadium on Sunday. How important is it to the Patriots to go undefeated?



"It's not what motivates us," linebacker Mike Vrabel said. "We're trying just like everybody else to get ourselves in a position for the playoffs. Obviously, the more games you win, the better opportunity you have to get the home-field advantage.



"We won our division, we have to just keep trying to check off goals."



After defeating the Washington Commanders 52-7 on Oct. 28, the Patriots' only viable opponent appeared to be history. They were 8-0 and beating teams by nearly three touchdowns per game. Quarterback Tom Brady was producing passing numbers never before seen.



And then, as they say on Wall Street, there was a market correction.



New England escaped with a 24-20 victory in Indianapolis and, after a blowout at Buffalo, wriggled past Philadelphia (31-28) and Baltimore (27-24) the last two weeks.



After throwing at least three touchdown passes in each of the season's first 10 games, Brady managed just three in the past two. And while he is still on pace to break Peyton Manning's touchdown pass and passer rating records of 49 and 121.1 set in 2004 -- Brady is projected to throw 54 TDs and his rating is 123.4 -- the combination of the Eagles' and Ravens' clever and physical defenses and deteriorating weather in the Northeast has brought the Patriots' offense back to the field.




With the last four December games to be played in typically blustery, wind-chilled Foxborough (three) and East Rutherford, N.J. (against the Giants in the season finale), there could be more statistical shrinkage.



The surprisingly narrow Monday night win in Baltimore revealed some stress fractures in the defense that had been obscured by New England's run-up-the-score offense.



Although the Patriots downplayed the season's loss of outside linebacker Rosevelt Colvin to a foot injury before the Ravens game, it drastically affects their flexibility and ability to pressure the passer.



New England opened in a 4-3, using Jarvis Green in the starting front line, but with Ravens running back Willis McGahee finding creases to run, the Patriots shifted into a 3-4, subtracting Green and adding Junior Seau.




[+] EnlargeJoe Robbins/Getty Images

Rodney Harrison the Patriots defense have looked vulnerable against the run.

In that configuration, the four Patriots linebackers averaged more than 12 years of experience. Outside of wide receiver Randy Moss, Adalius Thomas may be the league's most important offseason free-agent acquisition. He is a relatively spry 30, but is flanked by Vrabel (32), Tedy Bruschi (34) and Seau (38). Throw in safety Rodney Harrison, who turns 35 next week, and you have an aging defense that sometimes looked a step slow against the Ravens.



"We can't allow teams to come in and say, 'You know what, this is mano a mano, and we're going to knock you in the face and run the ball,'" Harrison told reporters after the game. "And that's what they did.



"I felt like this was the first time all year that we got bullied."


McGahee carried 30 times for 138 yards and the Ravens averaged 4.5 yards per carry. And this was no drive-by aberration. Of the league's 15 teams with a .500 record or better, a dozen have allowed a lower average per carry on defense than the Patriots' fleshy 4.1.


Officially, the Patriots are ranked sixth against the run, but that is more due to teams falling behind early and abandoning the ground game. The Patriots have the league's second-fewest run attempts against them (22.5 per game) and the second-best time of possession (33 minutes, 4 seconds).


Coincidentally, the Patriots will get an up-close-and-personal look Sunday at the team ahead of them in both categories: the Steelers.

With games also remaining against the Dolphins, Jets and Giants, this is the one they fear. Remember, this is the same Steelers outfit that ended the longest winning streak in pro football history (21 New England victories from early in the 2003 regular season, through Super Bowl XXXVIII and six games into the 2004 season).


With the much-discussed "blueprint" laid out by the Eagles and Ravens on both sides of the ball and a short week of preparation for the Patriots, an upset could happen.


Certainly, Steelers second-year safety Anthony Smith thinks so. The big discussion in the Patriots locker room Thursday was Smith's bold guarantee of victory.


"We heard about it," Brady said. "Coach always says we do our talking on Sundays. I'm glad they feel that way. I hope they feel that way. We'll see who comes out ahead on Sunday."


Belichick, whose quotes always seem to be in lockstep with Brady, added, "I would expect when Pittsburgh walks out there, they're going to expect a win. I can't imagine they would approach it any differently.

"We expect to win, they expect to win. Both teams will play hard [and] we'll see who's better on Sunday. I don't know what else there is."


Greg Garber is a senior writer for ESPN.com.

LINK
 

kingwhicker

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They're going to get a major league correction Sunday. I think the Stealers roll them.
 

Doomsday101

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kingwhicker;1817120 said:
They're going to get a major league correction Sunday. I think the Stealers roll them.

It would not come as a suprise should that happen. Thing with Pitt is which team shows up? These guys will look good 1 week and then turned around and lost to the lowly Jets
 

joseephuss

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I just don't think Pittsburgh is that good. Of course it is difficult to tell because they really have not been tested. Their schedule has been weak.

Wins over Buffalo, San Francisco, Baltimore, Miami and Cincinnati(twice) are not that impressive. Dallas played the Bills and Dolphins and those are two of the least impressive wins on their schedule as well.

Wins against Cleveland(twice) and Seattle are better. They got one against Cleveland in the very first game of the season when the Browns were trying to figure out what kind of team they were. They ended up changing QBs. The second win against the Browns was impressive, but it still was a very close game. The Steelers beat the Seahawks when Seattle was struggling. Seattle is a different team now.

The Steelers lost to the Cardinals, the Broncos and the Jets. That is poor.

The Steelers in my opinion are an over rated team at this point. I don't think they give the Patriots a game. If any team gets rolled in this match up it will be Pittsburgh.
 

Maikeru-sama

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Pittsburgh is playing on the road and they have not been that great on the road.

I am with Nate Newton, I don't think the Patriots have slid. Like him, I think it is extremely hard for a team like New England (and the Cowboys) to get up each and every week and play teams that are going to be giving them their best shot, especially the inferior ones.

I think New England wins this one.
 

Doomsday101

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mickgreen58;1817152 said:
Pittsburgh is playing on the road and they have not been that great on the road.

I am with Nate Newton, I don't think the Patriots have slid. Like him, I think it is extremely hard for a team like New England (and the Cowboys) to get up each and every week and play teams that are going to be giving them their best shot, especially the inferior ones.

I think New England wins this one.

I agree in that if I was going to bet money on this game I would go with the Pats. However I would not be shocked by Pitt winning due to the fact that they have a very good pass rush and a good power running game 2 things that have been giving the Pats fits lately. If it is a blow out then I agree it will be the Pats on top but I think Pitt is capable of making this a close game.
 

Maikeru-sama

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Doomsday101;1817160 said:
I agree in that if I was going to bet money on this game I would go with the Pats. However I would not be shocked by Pitt winning due to the fact that they have a very good pass rush and a good power running game 2 things that have been giving the Pats fits lately. If it is a blow out then I agree it will be the Pats on top but I think Pitt is capable of making this a close game.

I agree, I would not be surprised either.

I just wonder how good the Steelers really are. They lost to the Jets and I just don't see how any team that thinks of themselves as an Elite team could lose to the Jets, they are horrible.

But I guess it is all about matchups I suppose.

Should be interesting to see how much pressure they get on Brady.

Anybody know what the weather is going to be like up there?
 

Doomsday101

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mickgreen58;1817162 said:
I agree, I would not be surprised either.

I just wonder how good the Steelers really are. They lost to the Jets and I just don't see how any team that thinks of themselves as an Elite team could lose to the Jets, they are horrible.

But I guess it is all about matchups I suppose.

Should be interesting to see how much pressure they get on Brady.

Anybody know what the weather is going to be like up there?

How good is Philly? Or the Ravens? Both teams were able to apply the pressure and cause problems for the Pats. I think in the end if the Steelers can put the heat on Brady and control the clock via the running game with some occasional big shot by Big Ben then Pitt could pull the upset. As for the big picture of how good are the Steelers I don't think they are as good as many think they are but I do think they present certain matchups problem for NE. Will it be enough to beat NE we will see
 

kramskoi

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losses to Denver, Arizona and the Jets are puzzling, if not disturbing...of the top 5 teams in total DVOA...Pittsburgh has the weaker offense by far:


Top offenses through week 13:
  1. NE (47.0%)
  2. DAL (31.0%)
  3. IND (25.6%)
  4. GB (21.7%)
  5. CIN (16.4%)
14. Pit (3.3%)*****

What carries them, however, is their league leading defense:
  1. PIT (-24.1%) *****
  2. BAL (-14.4%)
  3. TEN (-11.5%)
  4. SEA (-11.1%)
  5. KC (-10.8%)
That's a pretty big gap between them and Baltimore so they have a chance at NE...they'll need to keep big Ben out of those nasty third and long situations though.
 

CanadianCowboysFan

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Funny, when we barely escape games like Buffalo, we are branded a fraud. When the Patriots do it, it is just a market correction.
 

dbair1967

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the X Factor....does the 3rd team show up to bail the Pats out again?

actually the third team might be confused in this game...over the years the third team has normally been Pro-Stealer....

David
 

Maxmadden

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dbair1967;1817284 said:
the X Factor....does the 3rd team show up to bail the Pats out again?

actually the third team might be confused in this game...over the years the third team has normally been Pro-Stealer....

David

Nice~
 

CanadianCowboysFan

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mickgreen58;1817162 said:
I agree, I would not be surprised either.

I just wonder how good the Steelers really are. They lost to the Jets and I just don't see how any team that thinks of themselves as an Elite team could lose to the Jets, they are horrible.

But I guess it is all about matchups I suppose.

Should be interesting to see how much pressure they get on Brady.

Anybody know what the weather is going to be like up there?

We were elite in 1993 and 1995 and lost to the Commanders. It happens.
 

big dog cowboy

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NE beats Putsburgh by at least 10. I'm still not buying the Stealers.
 

Chocolate Lab

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Unfortunately, I think that stupid nobody DB guaranteeing a Steeler win really hurt their chances.
 

dbair1967

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Chocolate Lab;1817529 said:
Unfortunately, I think that stupid nobody DB guaranteeing a Steeler win really hurt their chances.

I dont see how it makes any difference whatsoever

David
 

jobberone

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Don't have a clue as to who will win but I'm pulling for the Steelers and that's a real wierd feeling for me.
 
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