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Saints' defense must step up
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Archive
After reviewing the game tapes and metrics for the Bears and Saints, I believe there are two keys to this game.
1. Can the Saints force Rex Grossman into making bad decisions?
The likeliest way to beat Chicago this season was to hope Grossman would lose the game. He had five games with three or more interceptions, and Chicago was 2-3 in those games, with one of the wins being the miracle comeback against Arizona.
What are the Saints' chances of forcing Grossman into one of these games? I did a metric analysis of Grossman's season and found that he has been doing a much better job of managing his risks of late.
The metric I used to measure his performance is the bad decision metric. During the first eight games of this season, Grossman totaled 15 bad decisions. To put that number in perspective, consider that the highest bad decision total for the 2005 season was 28 by Brett Favre.
The Miami game in Week 9 seemed to be a turning point for Grossman, as he tallied only two more bad decisions over the next six games of the season (the last two games were meaningless for Chicago, so I excluded them).
Grossman's improved decision making isn't the only bad news for the Saints on this front. The New Orleans defense only forced nine bad decisions this season:
The low number is compounded by the type of bad decisions it tended to generate. Eight of Grossman's 17 bad decisions came when he faced a heavy pass rush and got rid of the ball to avoid a sack. The Saints were only able to compile two of these types of bad decisions this year, so they don't look to have the kind of defense that will force Grossman into one of his bad days.
2. Can the Saints' deep passing game find the coverage holes in the Bears' Cover 2 scheme?
One of the benefits of the Cover 2 scheme is that it is very good at stopping the long pass because the two safeties play deep. The Bears are so good at running this scheme; they were able to post the following metric stat line against the deep pass, despite playing backup safeties for much of the year:
Deep Coverage
Depth Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen P-Yds YPA
Deep 48 11 314 1 5 2 32 7.2
To illustrate how low that YPA is on deep passes, consider that seven yards would be an acceptable number in the short pass category.
The Cover 2 scheme does have two weaknesses the Saints' passing attack could exploit. The middle linebacker in a Cover 2 defense has a very large area he is responsible for, so offenses often take advantage of this by running deep in and seam patterns to that area.
Secondly, cornerbacks in this scheme are supposed to follow a receiver downfield for about 5-10 yards, then pass the receiver off to the safety, and there is usually a lag time before the safety can get over. The best way to take advantage of that delay is by having a receiver run a corner route.
The good news for the Saints is they were very adept at executing these three routes:
Passing Saints
Route Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen P-Yds YPA
Deep In 18 13 234 0 0 1 5 13.3
Seam 20 10 251 5 3 0 0 12.6
Corner 10 6 183 1 0 0 0 18.3
Total 48 29 668 6 3 1 5 14.0
Here are the Bears' metrics against these routes:
Chicago Holes
Route Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen P-Yds YPA
Deep In 19 11 160 0 4 0 0 8.4
Seam 11 5 135 0 1 0 0 12.3
Corner 8 3 77 0 0 0 0 9.6
Total 38 19 372 0 5 0 0 9.8
Chicago's metrics are still good, but not nearly as good as its metrics against other types of deep passes. The Saints might need to turn this game into a shootout and these metrics indicate they might be quite capable of doing that.
KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His latest book, "Scientific Football 2006," is available for order at his Web site, http://thefootballscientist.com. Here's a 37-page sample of the new book.
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Archive
After reviewing the game tapes and metrics for the Bears and Saints, I believe there are two keys to this game.
1. Can the Saints force Rex Grossman into making bad decisions?
The likeliest way to beat Chicago this season was to hope Grossman would lose the game. He had five games with three or more interceptions, and Chicago was 2-3 in those games, with one of the wins being the miracle comeback against Arizona.
What are the Saints' chances of forcing Grossman into one of these games? I did a metric analysis of Grossman's season and found that he has been doing a much better job of managing his risks of late.
The metric I used to measure his performance is the bad decision metric. During the first eight games of this season, Grossman totaled 15 bad decisions. To put that number in perspective, consider that the highest bad decision total for the 2005 season was 28 by Brett Favre.
The Miami game in Week 9 seemed to be a turning point for Grossman, as he tallied only two more bad decisions over the next six games of the season (the last two games were meaningless for Chicago, so I excluded them).
Grossman's improved decision making isn't the only bad news for the Saints on this front. The New Orleans defense only forced nine bad decisions this season:
The low number is compounded by the type of bad decisions it tended to generate. Eight of Grossman's 17 bad decisions came when he faced a heavy pass rush and got rid of the ball to avoid a sack. The Saints were only able to compile two of these types of bad decisions this year, so they don't look to have the kind of defense that will force Grossman into one of his bad days.
2. Can the Saints' deep passing game find the coverage holes in the Bears' Cover 2 scheme?
One of the benefits of the Cover 2 scheme is that it is very good at stopping the long pass because the two safeties play deep. The Bears are so good at running this scheme; they were able to post the following metric stat line against the deep pass, despite playing backup safeties for much of the year:
Deep Coverage
Depth Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen P-Yds YPA
Deep 48 11 314 1 5 2 32 7.2
To illustrate how low that YPA is on deep passes, consider that seven yards would be an acceptable number in the short pass category.
The Cover 2 scheme does have two weaknesses the Saints' passing attack could exploit. The middle linebacker in a Cover 2 defense has a very large area he is responsible for, so offenses often take advantage of this by running deep in and seam patterns to that area.
Secondly, cornerbacks in this scheme are supposed to follow a receiver downfield for about 5-10 yards, then pass the receiver off to the safety, and there is usually a lag time before the safety can get over. The best way to take advantage of that delay is by having a receiver run a corner route.
The good news for the Saints is they were very adept at executing these three routes:
Passing Saints
Route Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen P-Yds YPA
Deep In 18 13 234 0 0 1 5 13.3
Seam 20 10 251 5 3 0 0 12.6
Corner 10 6 183 1 0 0 0 18.3
Total 48 29 668 6 3 1 5 14.0
Here are the Bears' metrics against these routes:
Chicago Holes
Route Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen P-Yds YPA
Deep In 19 11 160 0 4 0 0 8.4
Seam 11 5 135 0 1 0 0 12.3
Corner 8 3 77 0 0 0 0 9.6
Total 38 19 372 0 5 0 0 9.8
Chicago's metrics are still good, but not nearly as good as its metrics against other types of deep passes. The Saints might need to turn this game into a shootout and these metrics indicate they might be quite capable of doing that.
KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His latest book, "Scientific Football 2006," is available for order at his Web site, http://thefootballscientist.com. Here's a 37-page sample of the new book.