ESPN Insider Scouts Pick: Dallas at Chicago

Gryphon

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ESPN Insider Scouts Pick: Dallas at Chicago

Are these the two best teams in the NFC?

Right now, they are, but both teams have major question marks and neither team would be considered an elite AFC team after two weeks.

Chicago's defense and special teams are every bit as good as they were a year ago, which was good enough for a trip to the Super Bowl. The problem with the Bears is behind center. The Bears have more weapons than ever, but having Rex Grossman delivering the ball is a huge concern. Chicago would waltz into the postseason with a true caretaker quarterback, like Brian Griese or Kyle Orton, but Grossman's pension for misreading coverages and turning the ball over could eventually be enough to derail this train. He has only accumulated 254 passing yards in the first two games. Dallas' defense will throw many different looks at Grossman to force him into uncomfortable situations and when things go wrong, Grossman usually costs his team big.

While not as concerning as having a wildly erratic quarterback, the Cowboys have more than their share of questions on the defensive side of the ball. NT Jason Ferguson is lost for the year and his ability to eat space in the middle of the defense will be sorely missed. His backup, Jeremiah Ratliff, was very effective last week, but that was against an awful Dolphins' offensive line. This week he will have to line up against one of the best centers in the league in Olin Kreutz. Chicago will pound RB Cedric Benson between the tackles and test the interior of Dallas' defense. OLB Greg Ellis and star CB Terence Newman have yet to see the field this season because of injuries that very well could hamper them all year long. This will be a big problem for Dallas, because the depth behind Newman is suspect. Chicago will test the Cowboys' cornerbacks on many occasions this week and could be particularly effective off play-action if Benson is able to establish himself as an interior power runner.

What kind of impact can Tommie Harris have in this game?
It could be argued that Harris is the best player on either team. He is the best upfield, one-gap defensive tackle in the game today. He looks as explosive as ever after recovering from last year's serious hamstring injury. The Bears were very wise to bring him along slowly during the preseason. He anticipated snap counts and showed rare quickness in Week 1 as he disrupted the Chargers' offense on a consistent basis and last week against the Chiefs, he had two sacks. Harris is more important to the Bears' defense than any other player, including the great LB Brian Urlacher. Chicago's Cover-2 scheme is predicated on getting penetration against the run and a consistent pass-rush from its defensive linemen. Many teams run a version of the Cover 2, but none have a three-technique tackle in Harris' class, because true upfield defensive tackles are very difficult to find.

As the three technique, he usually lines up on the outside shoulder of the strongside guard and uses his extreme athleticism to beat a far inferior athlete off the snap. The Cowboys do not have anyone on their offensive line who can handle Harris one-on-one with any degree of consistency. The double teams and added attention that he will surely garner only makes Urlacher and the rest of Chicago's defensive players that much better. Dallas will have to be aware of Harris on every snap and he has the potential to completely disrupt a very good Cowboys' offense.

Under any circumstance, should the Cowboys punt to Devin Hester?
Mat McBriar is one of the best punters in the league, but the answer to this question is very easy. NO! Hester's return ability is one of the few things that Chicago has been able to rely on to score points, as he did against the Chiefs last week. By no means is putting the football in his hands a good idea. Not only is he fast, explosive and quick, but he is also tough and fearless as a punt-catcher. He doesn't shy away from contact and runs with conviction, but is so elusive that he rarely takes big shots. His best asset may be his field vision and he seems to see things a few moves ahead of normal speed and he is extremely confident in his immense abilities.

Bears special teams coach Dave Toub has done a fantastic job with Chicago's special teams in all facets. The Bears certainly deserve the special teams edge in this game and that holds true against any opponent they face. Their specialists are solid and reliable. Plus, their coverage teams are very strong and of course, their returner is simply elite. There is absolutely no reason not to concede a little bit of field position with a shorter punt out of bounds instead of letting Hester field it.

Scouts' Edge

The Scouts Inc. Position Advantage QB RB WR OL DL LB DB ST Coach

This game has much more to it than the Scouts Inc. Advantage would lead you to believe. Dallas' offense and Chicago's defense are outstanding, but each team has questions on the other side of the ball.

If Newman is fully healthy, which is unlikely, Dallas might match him up on WR Bernard Berrian. This would favor Newman, but if he isn't 100 percent the Cowboys' defense will play a lot more zone-coverage and will be far less aggressive.

The Bears' offense has already turned the ball over six times this season and if that trend continues, their defense and special teams will not be able to bail them out against Dallas' outstanding offense. We don't trust Grossman to make good decisions in a game under the national spotlight, so we take the Cowboys on the road. This has all the makings of an outstanding football game.

Prediction: Cowboys 21, Bears 17
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superpunk

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Gryphon;1658911 said:
If Newman is fully healthy, which is unlikely, Dallas might match him up on WR Bernard Berrian.

You've got to wonder if eventually, in all their hours of "study", Scouts Inc. will realize that we (and almost every team in the NFL) do not match up our corners.
 

DallasEast

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Gryphon;1658911 said:
While not as concerning as having a wildly erratic quarterback, the Cowboys have more than their share of questions on the defensive side of the ball. NT Jason Ferguson is lost for the year and his ability to eat space in the middle of the defense will be sorely missed. His backup, Jeremiah Ratliff, was very effective last week, but that was against an awful Dolphins' offensive line. This week he will have to line up against one of the best centers in the league in Olin Kreutz.
Ratliff will probably be a liability against the run. Kreutz is the real deal and if Ratliff can battle him for four quarters, Ratliff will disrupt their rushing attack up the middle. I just don't see Ratliff winning those battles very often in that matchup.

What I do see is Ratliff's pass rushing ability beating Kreutz enough to put pressure on Grossman right up the middle. That's his real strength at nose tackle. If he can get in Grossman face on five or ten snaps, old Rex's confidence in his pocket will collapse and he'll make that one or two bad throws that usually end up going the opposite direction.
 

CowboyMike

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superpunk;1658924 said:
You've got to wonder if eventually, in all their hours of "study", Scouts Inc. will realize that we (and almost every team in the NFL) do not match up our corners.

We have when we needed to. Why do you think we've pretty much always shut down Steve Smith when we play Carolina? We match up Newman on him and he shuts him down.

Newman always gives Smith fits. lol. But Barrian isn't a Steve smith. We'll play our D, not let the offense dictate us like in the past.
 

Gryphon

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CrazyCowboy;1658923 said:
I like that score.........mine is 31 to 10 Cowboys!

In two simular situations in Chicago's history facing a 2-0 team in Chicago, they were blown out:

1996 vs Minn. score 41 to 14
2000 vs NYG score 42 to 7

Hopefully the Cowboys can do the same Sunday Night.

GO BOYS!
 

superpunk

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CowboyMike;1658927 said:
We have when we needed to. Why do you think we've pretty much always shut down Steve Smith when we play Carolina? We match up Newman on him and he shuts him down.

Newman always gives Smith fits. lol. But Barrian isn't a Steve smith. We'll play our D, not let the offense dictate us like in the past.

The only times we did that was against S. Moss and Smith, who Henry is helpless against. These are rare instances. Berrian is fast (not quick, like Smith and Moss), but we still play sides, and he's not worth switching Newman around for. Very few teams will play that way, but you still get outlets and fans thinking that is the norm.
 

CowboyMike

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superpunk;1658933 said:
The only times we did that was against S. Moss and Smith, who Henry is helpless against. These are rare instances. Berrian is fast (not quick, like Smith and Moss), but we still play sides, and he's not worth switching Newman around for. Very few teams will play that way, but you still get outlets and fans thinking that is the norm.

That's what I was trying to say. Yeah, we do that when we need to, but not all the time.

That's why I said "But Berrian isn't Steve Smith. So we'll just stick to our regular D."
 

DallasEast

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Gryphon;1658929 said:
In two simular situations in Chicago's history facing a 2-0 team in Chicago, they were blown out:

1996 vs Minn. score 41 to 14
2000 vs NYG score 42 to 7

Hopely the Cowboys can do the same Sunday Night.

GO BOYS!

In '96, it was the Bears' 12th ranked defense and 21st ranked offense versus the Vikings' 16th ranked defense and 12th ranked offense.

In 2000, it was the Bears' 16th ranked defense and 23rd ranked offense versus the Giants' 5th ranked defense and 13th ranked offense.

Through the first two games this season, it'll be the Bears' 5th ranked defense and 30th ranked offense versus the Cowboys' 26th ranked defense and 4th ranked offense.

Statistically, the shared advantage of the '96 Vikings, '00 Giants and this season's Cowboys will be an offense which is better than the Bears. OTOH, our defense is trailing far behind the '00 Giants' (which was better than the Bears that season) and the '96 Vikings (which was only slightly worse than the Bears).

If Phillips can make the necessary adjustments to have his defense play like a 15th ranked squad or better against the Bears' offense, I can see a similar blowout happening Sunday night; but if it's the 26th ranked defense of the past two weeks, it will be a close contest from start to finish, imo.
 

vicjagger

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DallasEast;1658948 said:
If Phillips can make the necessary adjustments to have his defense play like a 15th ranked squad or better against the Bears' offense, I can see a similar blowout happening Sunday night; but if it's the 26th ranked defense of the past two weeks, it will be a close contest from start to finish, imo.

He did it week one to week two. After week 1 the 'Boys were 31st at 438/game. In week 2, they gave up over 100 yards less (334), which is about equal to the 20th ranked team. Let's hope this week they keep improving and give up less than 300 yards and 20 points.
 

lspain1

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Once again, the first job of the defense is to stop the run....and this is against a team that will be determined to establish the run. I believe the Bears will stay with the run and punt rather than throw the ball in bad situations. When they pass it will likely be way downfield (another form of punt if something bad happens). They will count on their defense and special teams to win. We will see a LOT of Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson (Bear's version).
 

zrinkill

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I think people are seriously underestimating Dallas ...... I think "da" Bears have a lot of problems and are nowhere bear the defensive juggernaut they were last year.

Dallas 38
Bears 17
 

Chocolate Lab

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What kind of impact can Tommie Harris have in this game?
It could be argued that Harris is the best player on either team. He is the best upfield, one-gap defensive tackle in the game today. He looks as explosive as ever after recovering from last year's serious hamstring injury.
It hasn't been talked about much, but I noticed that Harris has been held out of practice some this week because of a hamstring. Is this just the Bears being cautious from last year's injury? Or did he tweak it again? Wonder if that could be a factor.

He's definitely our biggest threat. He could give Davis fits, and he might be extra fired up playing against the hometown team with his family watching.

We need Romo to come through this week, because they'll try to stop the run like they did the first couple weeks to Johnson and L.T. But unlike for many years now, I think our QB can do it.
 

theanimal23

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Special Teams and field position decides this game. You give the Bears a short field (turnovers/Hester), they win. If not, we will win. The matchup of our O vs their D will be a wash. But their O, IMO is worse than our D. Grossman is that bad. If they had any other decent QB, I'd mark them down as the winner. Thats not the case.

Boys 24 Bears 16
 

WarDaddy

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If we can start to garner any form of inside pressure at all, Ware will start to get his sacks. We might not see Ware achieve much at all until Tank gets to play and that is assuming Tank can provide a consistant rush along with Ratliff. If we can stay above .500 until November, I can really see us as strong contenders for the Super Bowl and winning this game on the road will go a long way toward helping that cause...
 

Deep_Freeze

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In this game, I do believe we have to get a good start to get ahead and make them play from behind so that they can't pound us in the middle as much. We have to make Grossman try to beat us, and get pressure on him so that he can't do that.

We need a big game from Romo, spreading the ball around and such. They are so strong against the run, that we need to loosen them up with the pass.
 

dfense

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Odds Grossman will fumble an exchange from center 1:1. Odds he throws at least one pick 3:1. Odds he starts sweating when he sees Ware salivating 10:1.
 

Colo

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Gryphon;1658911 said:
As the three technique, he usually lines up on the outside shoulder of the strongside guard and uses his extreme athleticism to beat a far inferior athlete off the snap. The Cowboys do not have anyone on their offensive line who can handle Harris one-on-one with any degree of consistency.

Leonard_Davis.jpg

Time for big D to earn that money.
 

slick325

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The Bears have played against the top two running backs in the league in their first two games. Kudos to them for shutting down two great backs. However, Dallas' offense is much different than the offenses the Bears faced in SD and KC.

SD and KC rely on two people (not including their QB's) to be their primary offense. LT and Gates in SD, LJ and Gonzales in KC. The one thing missing from both teams is a truly effective WR. Defensing these teams is not an easy task because of how skilled their backs and TE's are. But, as a DC you can play safeties in the box and a safety over your LB essentially doubling the TE. Thanks to T.O. you would not be wise to do so against Dallas.

T.O. adds a different dimension to this game that the Bears haven't had to worry about since the Super Bowl. A deep threat that can't be left one on one too often. Dallas' two headed running game and Pro Bowl TE are a viable threat as well, so the Bears have many things to be concerned about facing this offense as opposed to focusing on two players all game.
 
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