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Burden's on Burress to ignite Giants' passing game
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
(Archive)
Updated: January 9, 2008
Two of the playoff matchups this weekend feature teams that faced each other during the regular season. I took a closer metric look at each of these earlier matchups in conjunction with some season-long metrics to help determine some of the keys to these two games.
N.Y. Giants at Dallas
The passing matchup that will draw the most attention is whichever Giants cornerback is facing Terrell Owens, but the metrics from earlier in the season say that the Plaxico Burress-Anthony Henry matchup is one worth watching. In Week 1, Burress toasted Henry with four catches in four attempts for 101 yards and a touchdown. In Week 10, however, Burress had only one short pass thrown to him against Henry, and it fell incomplete.
The pressure might not be as strong on Burress if Amani Toomer had an easier matchup, but Toomer is going to draw Terence Newman. Because Toomer was 0-for-3 against Newman in their only matchup this season, Burress' ability to step up looks to be crucial if the Giants' passing game is to get going.
Another major question is whether the Giants' defense can slow the Cowboys' running game. Dallas totaled 224 rushing yards in its first two meetings, and given the possibility that Owens will be slowed by injury, the Cowboys might lean on their ground attack a lot more than usual this week.
Dallas Offensive Line
Player POA runs Yds YPA
Flozell Adams 9 57 6.3
Leonard Davis 19 69 3.6
Andre Gurode 21 63 3.0
Kyle Kosier 20 79 4.0
Marc Colombo 14 63 4.5
The metrics say that one key for New York's run defense is to prevent the Dallas runners from bouncing a play outside of its initial hole. Cowboys running backs did this type of bounce-out 13 times and gained a total of 75 yards on those runs, or 5.7 yards per attempt. Contrast that to the 3.6 YPA Dallas runners gained when the Giants didn't let them bounce the play outside, and it is clear that containment has to be a key for New York.
Another reason the Giants will want to keep runners to the inside is because they have had plenty of success against Dallas center Andre Gurode. Gurode was easily the least successful of the Cowboys' offensive linemen in the run-blocking metrics against New York, as the list to the right indicates.
Ten of the 21 runs behind Gurode gained 2 or fewer yards, so the low YPA is quite indicative of his overall performance. Expect Kyle Kosier and Leonard Davis to give Gurode a lot of help if the Cowboys can't bounce the runs to the outside.
San Diego at Indianapolis
The one thing that struck me in looking at the first matchup between these teams is that the Colts' passing attack struggled in large part due to injuries to their wide receiver/tight end corps. Anthony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark and Marvin Harrison were all inactive for that Week 10 game, and Aaron Moorehead, Bryan Fletcher and Craphonso Thorpe ended up replacing them.
To put those personnel changes into perspective, just consider the season-long YPA totals for the three replacements: 2.7, 5.1 and 3.5. Any YPA total under six will typically get a wide receiver booted off the team and a tight end relegated to blocking duties, yet that is what Peyton Manning had at his disposal. That Manning was able to get 21 points against the Chargers' defense with that group of downfield threats is simply amazing.
On the plus side for the Colts, Gonzalez has shown that he is not merely a capable replacement for Harrison, but is instead proving that he could be on his way to becoming an elite receiver. Gonzalez posted 10.8 YPA this season, which is actually 1 yard higher than Reggie Wayne's YPA total. This isn't to say that Gonzalez is in Wayne's neighborhood yet, since he had only 58 pass attempts to Wayne's 157, but he is in the same receiving zip code.
The bad news for San Diego is that this game may actually turn out to be a reverse of the earlier game injury-wise. The Chargers are quite likely to be without the services of TE Antonio Gates. Even if he does play, he is likely to be slowed by a toe injury.
If Gates is out, Norv Turner's passing game will have to get by with a combination of Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson and Buster Davis. Chambers is doing quite well this year (8.6 YPA), but that is the only good news.
Jackson has not played well this season. His 7.4 YPA is OK, but if the Week 5 game against Denver (four catches, 84 yards) were taken out of his metrics, Jackson's YPA would drop to a less-than-adequate 6.6. Davis' numbers aren't even that good (6.4 YPA). If Indianapolis turns this game into a shootout, it is quite unlikely the Chargers will be able to keep up.
KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His core passing metrics can be found in the ESPN Fantasy Football Magazine, which is on newsstands now. A free sample of his latest release ("Scientific Football 2007") is available at his Web site.
LINK
By KC JoynerESPN Insider
(Archive)
Updated: January 9, 2008
Two of the playoff matchups this weekend feature teams that faced each other during the regular season. I took a closer metric look at each of these earlier matchups in conjunction with some season-long metrics to help determine some of the keys to these two games.
N.Y. Giants at Dallas
The passing matchup that will draw the most attention is whichever Giants cornerback is facing Terrell Owens, but the metrics from earlier in the season say that the Plaxico Burress-Anthony Henry matchup is one worth watching. In Week 1, Burress toasted Henry with four catches in four attempts for 101 yards and a touchdown. In Week 10, however, Burress had only one short pass thrown to him against Henry, and it fell incomplete.
The pressure might not be as strong on Burress if Amani Toomer had an easier matchup, but Toomer is going to draw Terence Newman. Because Toomer was 0-for-3 against Newman in their only matchup this season, Burress' ability to step up looks to be crucial if the Giants' passing game is to get going.
Another major question is whether the Giants' defense can slow the Cowboys' running game. Dallas totaled 224 rushing yards in its first two meetings, and given the possibility that Owens will be slowed by injury, the Cowboys might lean on their ground attack a lot more than usual this week.
Dallas Offensive Line
Player POA runs Yds YPA
Flozell Adams 9 57 6.3
Leonard Davis 19 69 3.6
Andre Gurode 21 63 3.0
Kyle Kosier 20 79 4.0
Marc Colombo 14 63 4.5
The metrics say that one key for New York's run defense is to prevent the Dallas runners from bouncing a play outside of its initial hole. Cowboys running backs did this type of bounce-out 13 times and gained a total of 75 yards on those runs, or 5.7 yards per attempt. Contrast that to the 3.6 YPA Dallas runners gained when the Giants didn't let them bounce the play outside, and it is clear that containment has to be a key for New York.
Another reason the Giants will want to keep runners to the inside is because they have had plenty of success against Dallas center Andre Gurode. Gurode was easily the least successful of the Cowboys' offensive linemen in the run-blocking metrics against New York, as the list to the right indicates.
Ten of the 21 runs behind Gurode gained 2 or fewer yards, so the low YPA is quite indicative of his overall performance. Expect Kyle Kosier and Leonard Davis to give Gurode a lot of help if the Cowboys can't bounce the runs to the outside.
San Diego at Indianapolis
The one thing that struck me in looking at the first matchup between these teams is that the Colts' passing attack struggled in large part due to injuries to their wide receiver/tight end corps. Anthony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark and Marvin Harrison were all inactive for that Week 10 game, and Aaron Moorehead, Bryan Fletcher and Craphonso Thorpe ended up replacing them.
To put those personnel changes into perspective, just consider the season-long YPA totals for the three replacements: 2.7, 5.1 and 3.5. Any YPA total under six will typically get a wide receiver booted off the team and a tight end relegated to blocking duties, yet that is what Peyton Manning had at his disposal. That Manning was able to get 21 points against the Chargers' defense with that group of downfield threats is simply amazing.
On the plus side for the Colts, Gonzalez has shown that he is not merely a capable replacement for Harrison, but is instead proving that he could be on his way to becoming an elite receiver. Gonzalez posted 10.8 YPA this season, which is actually 1 yard higher than Reggie Wayne's YPA total. This isn't to say that Gonzalez is in Wayne's neighborhood yet, since he had only 58 pass attempts to Wayne's 157, but he is in the same receiving zip code.
The bad news for San Diego is that this game may actually turn out to be a reverse of the earlier game injury-wise. The Chargers are quite likely to be without the services of TE Antonio Gates. Even if he does play, he is likely to be slowed by a toe injury.
If Gates is out, Norv Turner's passing game will have to get by with a combination of Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson and Buster Davis. Chambers is doing quite well this year (8.6 YPA), but that is the only good news.
Jackson has not played well this season. His 7.4 YPA is OK, but if the Week 5 game against Denver (four catches, 84 yards) were taken out of his metrics, Jackson's YPA would drop to a less-than-adequate 6.6. Davis' numbers aren't even that good (6.4 YPA). If Indianapolis turns this game into a shootout, it is quite unlikely the Chargers will be able to keep up.
KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His core passing metrics can be found in the ESPN Fantasy Football Magazine, which is on newsstands now. A free sample of his latest release ("Scientific Football 2007") is available at his Web site.
LINK
