KC Joyner: Hello again. I know the big talk today is the NBA Finals but I'm still ready to talk some football!
Will (Ashburn, VA): Is Stuart Schweigert good enough to start (and play well) at FS for the skins this year? I remember he was a ball hawk at Purdue but didn't do much memorable in Oakland except show up trying to run down LT on more than one occasion (but who on the Raiders D didn't?).
KC Joyner: There are doubts about Schweigert's ability to deliver a big hit, so if Washington wants him to do that, they've got the wrong guy. If they want him to be a ballhawk, he'll be a very good fit for them.
Aaron: Hey KC. What are the boys going to do at wideout? If TO goes down, that offense is going to struggle. How much faith are they really putting in those young recievers?
KC Joyner: Aaron, Crayton had some really good numbers last year (a 9.4 YPA is nothing to sneeze at) and they do have Witten as a pseudo WR. That means they really go three deep, so I think they would be OK even if one were to go down with an injury.
Derek - Lincoln: Do you see any more big names being victims to June 1st cuts?
KC Joyner: Well, since it is past June 1, I'd say not! Seriously, though, there probably won't be that many more big name moves made this offseason.
Luis (SB, CA): KCJ, 2 questions about the recent release of top RB's in the league: 1) How do you put Marshawn Lynch at 10 over guys like MJD and Willie Parker? 2)How can guys that haven't played a snap in the league be ranked?
KC Joyner: Luis, I think both questions can be answered the same way: it was a matter of valuing potential over performance. I tend to lean much more towards the latter but most scouts have an eye towards the former because that's a lot of what their job requires them to do. They have to be able to project how talent will perform and that's what the Scouts Inc. people did in this one.
Scott - San Diego, CA: KC - Is this year the Changers go all the way? Their team is loaded and they have the second easiest schedule in the league so a 1 or 2 seed is not out of the question.
KC Joyner: I think it will come down to what it came down to last year: injuries. They are arguably the most talented roster in the league but if LT and Rivers get hurt at the wrong time, they could be sitting home on Super Sunday again.
Lane (Kukuihaele, HI): Has the Matt Ryan contract made it difficult for teams to sign their draft picks?
KC Joyner: I don't think it has quite as much as it has in years past when the top pick was a QB and got a big contract. It's not as easy to make the argument that because a potential franchise QB got the big payday that a great DL or OL deserves just as big of a contract.
Broad Street Brian (Philly): Great article this week K.C. As you did your research, did you find any pairing of a starting CB and nickel corner that far exceeded the metrics of the two starters? (same team of course)
KC Joyner: Good question. One team that fit that profile would have been NE. Hobbs had terrible metrics and Samuel had OK coverage metrics but the best YPA number in that secondary belonged to Gay. I still find it hard to believe they let him go.
Steve (Rochester, NY): In 2000 the first kicker (Sebastian Janikowski) was selected before the first quarterback (Chad Pennington). Has that ever happened before?
KC Joyner: Great question. I don't think it has but I'm honestly not 100% certain.
Dee (Greenville, NC): I'm curious. Do you run metrics on DE/DTs ability to shed blockers and disrupt running plays? I'd be interested in seeing who are the best interior d-lineman in the league.
KC Joyner: The run metrics do track how well defensive players defeat blocks in general. I didn't run them on the entire league last year but I did do a study on under tackles that showed Haynesworth is probably the best in the league, although Kevin Williams numbers were quite comparable (and in a couple of cases, a bit better).
Greg ( Charlotte): Does Gamble, Lucas, and Marshall stack up with the best CB trio's in the league? Who are the best trios??
KC Joyner: Greg, that sounds like a very good idea for a future column! Having said that, Gamble's low YPA probably would keep that trio from topping the league. My guess is that they would still end up in the top half of the league and maybe the top 10.
Steve (Rochester, NY): I like the Raiders signing of DE Greg Spires. Do you have an evaluation of him? How does he compare to Chris Clemons, the guy he is replacing?
KC Joyner: They would both be used as situational pass rush guys, so that's the prism I'd view them through. I don't have the numbers right in front of me but if memory serves me correct, most of Clemons sacks last year were one on one sacks. Spires didn't do as well there, so I think it could be a downgrade.
Chris (Detroit): Ok, serious Lions question. Should I even watch them play this year? How many wins do they get?
KC Joyner: Chris, I know what you're going through. I grew up in Michigan and suffered through my share of disappointing Lions seasons. My answer was to start watching AFC games and finding other teams to pull for, so maybe that's an option. On the win question, Detroit again ends up around 8 or so.
Lane (Kukuihaele, HI): 1978 Steve Little taken with 15th overall pick. Doug Williams taken with 17th overall.
KC Joyner: Top notch and quick research done by Lane! If I remember correctly, the Cardinals thought Little would be a good P/K combination, although that never worked out.
Gill (Boston, MA): KC - prior to last season, did you think Bly and Bailey were the best CB Duo in the leauge...Bailey was great in '06, but I was never sold on Bly? Why does everyone think he's that great?
KC Joyner: I thought Bly was that good because he had some really good YPA years in Detroit. His 2006 season was a bit of a downer for them but they had also switched to the cover-two that he doesn't fit well in, so the thought of moving him to a man coverage team like Denver seemed like a great fit. That's why it was surprising to see him fall off.
Gill (Boston, MA): The best CB Duo, if Pac's reinstated is hands down, Newman and Pac...being the #1 Cowboy fan around, I think either Henry's gonna get hurt or moved to FS...Looks like Hamlin should sign something quick...
KC Joyner: Gill, if the Boys keep Henry at CB they could make a case for the #1 trio if Jones comes back to his 5-6 YPA coverage range.
kl (philly): does that make clemons a good pick up for the eagles???
KC Joyner: I like Clemons for the Eagles a lot. He's got the pass rushing skill they needed and he performs better when used sporadically like Philly is certain to use him.
Bryce Spencer (Farmington, UT): Which team will be the biggest disappointment in the NFL this upcoming season?
KC Joyner: I'm betting it will be the Pats. It's not that they won't have a very good season, as I do think they will still win the AFC East and get deep into the playoffs, but even if they were to go 12-4 and lose in the AFC Championship, they would be seen as not having done nearly as well as they did this past year. Their bar is set incredibly high and I just don't see them going over it.
kl (philly: sheppard+brown+samuel?
KC Joyner: It wouldn't be the top trio in the league YPA wise but if Sheppard and Samuel could both tap into their best ballhawking tendencies in one season, this group could put up 20 ints between them.
Ryan, Spain: KC, love your work...cerebral stuff. Anyway, do you see S. Holmes having a breakout year for PGH, and will Mendenhall make that line better?
KC Joyner: First time we've had a post from Spain in the TFS chat, so welcome! I do think Holmes has a breakout season. His YPA totals have been off the charts (double digits last year), so all he needs is a bit of volume to become one of the best around.
Dave (Dallas): KC - I see the Bills corners did pretty well in your metrics. How do you account for the fact the the Bills had one of the worst passing defenses in the league last year (Ranked 29th in Passing yards per game) with corners playing that well?
KC Joyner: They did have a number of injuries at LB and S positions, so that's part of it. They also never really got their nickel CB position fixed, either.
Steve (Rochester, NY): I brought up Janikowski so I guess I'll ask the question. Couldn't the Raiders find a much cheaper alternative? He completed only 72% of his FG's last year and even if you back out attempts of over 50 yards his completion percentage only goes to 80%. I love the Raiders but this experiment is over especially when you see guys like Nick Folk going to the pro bowl.
KC Joyner: Steve, I've been an FSU follower for a long time and can remember the impact Janikowski had for them. That's what Oakland expected him to bring to them but it really hasn't happened. I know value physical talent above all else but I agree that it's time to give up on the Janikowski experience and find not only a cheaper option, but a more consistent one as well.
Bobby (Toledo, OH): GB over/under wins, 9.5 what you taking?
KC Joyner: Under, but not by much. I see 8 wins here.
Robert - Vegas: Did Al Davis get diagnosed with a terminal disease this offseason? With the money he's throwing around to the questionable players on that roster (Hall, G. Wilson, Walker - even Russell & McFadden), if they don't break 6 wins and Kiffin gets the boot, it could set them back for another 5 years, due to cap issues, new coaching and maybe even losing Ryan to another team. The gamble is if they hit .500 and Kiffin stays, they could be contenders in 09. Your thoughts?
KC Joyner: If I had to guess, Robert, I'd say that Al is simply trying to get Oakland in line to make one last run. I actually get most of the moves he's made but the Russell one doesn't make much sense if that's what he's trying to do. In the old days, Oakland would find a vet QB and build around that (Blanda, Plunkett, Gannon) but they don't have that guy right now and Russell looks like a 3-4 year project.
Kelvin (Dayton): Should Eagles fans be worried about their offensive line production? They didn't do much to shore up a line that gave up more than 10 sacks in 1 game.
KC Joyner: Kelvin, there should be a bit of worry but that one game was Winston Justice's fault, not the whole O line.
Jacob (balto): Who are you starting, Fabian Washington or S Rolle?
KC Joyner: It all depends on Rolle's health. Washington was a 9+ YPA guy last year and when Rolle is on, he's a 7-8 guy.
Mitch (Gainesville, FL): How do you think the Jaguars passing game will fare next season? Is Jerry Porter good enough to be the #1 WR they've been missing?
KC Joyner: Porter posted double digits in both the deep and bomb categories last year, so he certainly won't hurt the Jags. What they've lacked most, however, is consistency in both performance and ability to show up and play ever Sunday. Even if Porter's numbers drop a bit but he's still there every week, I think that would have a profound impact on the Jags.
steve (NY): do you hate the jets?
KC Joyner: I don't hate them but I do question some of their personnel moves. Pennington outdoes Clemens in just about every conceivable metric last year and they still are thinking of starting Clemens? I just don't get it.
Jon, NJ: KC, I read these chats every week- it seems like there is always very little Colts talk (correct me if I'm wrong). What are your expectations for their defense this year? Better than last year?
KC Joyner: Jon, I honestly rarely get any Colts questions, so do me a favor and join us for a few chats this year, will ya?! Regarding their D, I would point out that Indy's forced bad decision percentage was among the best in the NFL in 2007. That is one of the primary indicators of a quality defense so I'm expecting them to be at least as good this year, and probably a bit better.
Justin (Denver): Assuming Marshall at 1 and Stokely at 3, can the Broncos expect anything from Darrell Jackson for their #2 receiver spot?
KC Joyner: Jackson had a simply horrible 5.2 YPA last year. Some of that was obviously due to the 49ers general offensive ineptitude but some of it also seemed to come from Jackson not adjusting well to a different style of offense. Denver doesn't run the Seattle system, either, so I'm not very high on his doing well in 08.
Steve (Rochester, NY): I'll ask a Colts question. Is Dallas Clark simply a product of the Colts offense? How good would he be playing for a lesser team?
KC Joyner: The thing about Clark is that everyone raves about how well he does as a WR and his numbers over the years have been only OK in that role. He has historically done better when lining up as a TE, so I actually think he would post better numbers for a team that would use him more in that role.
Ryan (America's Finest City): Staying on the Broncos, now that Culter knows why he lost so much weight and why he was exhausted all the time do you see a breaking-out season this year for him?
KC Joyner: Ryan, the key for Cutler is going to be is he can bring his bad decision percentages into line. He has posted 5+% bad decision percentages in each of the last two years. The only way to offset that high of a bdec% is to post a YPA of over 9 (as Big Ben did in his Super Bowl year). Denver's O isn't likely to do that, so he really needs to reign his mistakes down to the 4% range. It means only taking away maybe five bad plays, so it certainly isn't an impossible or unreasonable task.
JKlipp (Milwaukee, WI): Oh great scientologist... Packer's D ranks where in the league? Strengths? Weaknesses?
KC Joyner: Packers + weakness = Al Harris. He was a huge coverage liability last year (9.7 YPA) and was the primary reason for their playoff departure.
Bobby (Toledo, OH): Gradkowski will be gone, who is the next TB QB to go?
KC Joyner: Is Plummer still on their roster? If so, that's the next to go.
Bobby (Toledo, OH): KC can you write this down for me, Aaron Rouse starts this year in GB and makes the Pro Bowl.
KC Joyner: Are you sure you want to be on the record for that one?
Botz (Saint Paul, MN): NFC North...If it is the Packers and Vikes that are expected to duke it out, what will be key for both teams?
KC Joyner: Botz, the key will be if GB's O line can pass block against the Vikes D line. The Pack's O line is not very good and Minnesota has the best D line the NFL has seen in maybe 20 years, so this has all the makings of a mismatch. Well, I'm gonna hit the road now. Hope to see you all here next week!
The guy's name who asked the question.
