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Bulger still not appreciated
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
(Archive)
Updated: July 25, 2007
Quarterbacks are the subject of this week's installment of overrated and underrated players. No position in the league is more celebrated or criticized, so emotions tend to run high when putting together quarterback ratings.
I try to take as much emotion out of the equation as possible by focusing my analysis on five main metrics: Yards per attempt, success percentage, SYPA, bad-decision percentage and weighted bad-decision percentage. These metrics cover just about every positive and negative a quarterback could bring to his team.
As has been the case in each of the previous installments, the rankings are based on how each player's 2006 metrics compare with his reputation. Pro Bowl berths are given a lot of weight in determining the perception of a player.
Overrated Quarterbacks
Philip Rivers
Rivers is a good quarterback, but I am not yet convinced he has reached the level of greatness his Pro Bowl berth would indicate.
His performance faded after about the midway point of the 2006 season. In the first 10 games last year, Rivers' composite passer rating was 99.7. Over the last six games, the rating dropped to 77.6.
It wasn't just his overall performance that suffered. I did a study late last year in an ESPN.com article that showed Rivers had more than a few issues when facing a blitz. In a five-game stretch from weeks 11-16, Rivers had a passer rating of 23.8 on plays when the Chargers' opponent blitzed.
If Rivers had a long history of playing well, I might be able to overlook a late-season slump, but he has played well for only half of one season. I believe he needs to do more before being considered one of the league's great quarterbacks.
Brett Favre
Many of Favre's 2006 metrics were among the worst in the league. His 6.2 YPA put him in the company of Charlie Frye and Jason Campbell. His total of 18 bad decisions was tied for the fourth-most in the league, and his 62 combined interceptions and near interceptions was easily the most in the NFL, even surpassing the much-maligned Rex Grossman. Favre simply isn't anywhere near the quarterback he was even just three years ago.
Others:
Jon Kitna: Kitna gets a ton of credit for his strong leadership, but his 20 bad decisions ranked last in the league, and his 38 bad-decision points ranked next to last. Add in his nine lost fumbles last year and it is clear his turnovers and mistakes more than made up for his superb leadership skills.
Trent Green: Green showed a lot of courage in coming back from a severe concussion last year, but his metrics after he returned were quite poor. His 6.5 YPA tied for 23rd in the league. His 60.4 success percentage was only slightly better than David Garrard's and was worse than Brad Johnson's. His 3.9 bad decision percentage was the 33rd-worst. The metrics indicate Green might not be the savior Dolphins fans are hoping he will be.
Underrated Quarterbacks
Marc Bulger
I know that Bulger made the Pro Bowl last year, but I believe he still doesn't get his due as one of the NFL's best quarterbacks. His 7.5 YPA was the eighth-best in the league and his 92.9 passer rating was seventh-best. Bulger had the fourth-lowest bad-decision percentage and the fifth-lowest weighted bad-decision percentage. He also had the fifth-lowest interception/near interception percentage. That Bulger was able to post these numbers in a new offensive system, and without Mike Martz calling the plays, says a lot for his ability.
J.P. Losman
Losman might be the best deep ball quarterback in the NFL today. His 698 bomb passing yards were the second-most in the league. He also had the fifth-highest YPA at that depth level. It isn't just a high YPA level that makes Losman a great vertical passer. He also had zero bad decisions on his bomb passes. That total wasn't a statistical anomaly either, as Losman's 33 bomb pass throws were the fifth-most in that category. If Jason Peters can keep Losman's blindside protected this year as well as he did late last year, Losman should be able to do even better on long passes in 2007.
Others:
Chad Pennington: The reason Pennington qualifies for this list is that he is a much better vertical passer than people think. He ranked 15th and 12th in bomb and deep-pass YPA last year. Pennington's 9.8 YPA on deep out passes was also the seventh-highest figure in the league. These metrics prove Pennington is able to beat a defense even on the toughest passes a quarterback has to throw.
Tony Romo: Romo was like Rivers in that his end-of-season performance tailed off, but his reputation seemed to take a much bigger hit than Rivers. This shouldn't have been the case, as Romo's end-of-season metrics were still among the best in the NFL. His 8.4 YPA was the highest in that category. Romo also had the second-highest success percentage and the highest SYPA rating.
July 25 Glossary
YPA (Yards Per Attempt): A quick barometer of a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end's efficiency.
Success Percentage: The percentage of plays a player does something successful with the ball. Successful plays include completions (for offensive players), incompletions (for defensive players) and penalty plays that go in the player's favor.
SYPA (Success percentage X Yards Per Attempt): A metric that combines both success percentage and YPA in an effort to measure a player's overall effectiveness.
Bad decisions: A quarterback is charged with a bad decision when he does something with the ball that either leads to, or nearly leads to, a turnover. The most common bad decisions are forcing passes into coverage or staring at receivers.
Weighted bad decision percentage: Bad decisions are given point totals based on the amount of damage they cause. Weighted bad decisions are those point totals expressed as a percentage of total pass attempts.
LINK
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
(Archive)
Updated: July 25, 2007
Quarterbacks are the subject of this week's installment of overrated and underrated players. No position in the league is more celebrated or criticized, so emotions tend to run high when putting together quarterback ratings.
I try to take as much emotion out of the equation as possible by focusing my analysis on five main metrics: Yards per attempt, success percentage, SYPA, bad-decision percentage and weighted bad-decision percentage. These metrics cover just about every positive and negative a quarterback could bring to his team.
As has been the case in each of the previous installments, the rankings are based on how each player's 2006 metrics compare with his reputation. Pro Bowl berths are given a lot of weight in determining the perception of a player.
Overrated Quarterbacks
Philip Rivers
Rivers is a good quarterback, but I am not yet convinced he has reached the level of greatness his Pro Bowl berth would indicate.
His performance faded after about the midway point of the 2006 season. In the first 10 games last year, Rivers' composite passer rating was 99.7. Over the last six games, the rating dropped to 77.6.
It wasn't just his overall performance that suffered. I did a study late last year in an ESPN.com article that showed Rivers had more than a few issues when facing a blitz. In a five-game stretch from weeks 11-16, Rivers had a passer rating of 23.8 on plays when the Chargers' opponent blitzed.
If Rivers had a long history of playing well, I might be able to overlook a late-season slump, but he has played well for only half of one season. I believe he needs to do more before being considered one of the league's great quarterbacks.
Brett Favre
Many of Favre's 2006 metrics were among the worst in the league. His 6.2 YPA put him in the company of Charlie Frye and Jason Campbell. His total of 18 bad decisions was tied for the fourth-most in the league, and his 62 combined interceptions and near interceptions was easily the most in the NFL, even surpassing the much-maligned Rex Grossman. Favre simply isn't anywhere near the quarterback he was even just three years ago.
Others:
Jon Kitna: Kitna gets a ton of credit for his strong leadership, but his 20 bad decisions ranked last in the league, and his 38 bad-decision points ranked next to last. Add in his nine lost fumbles last year and it is clear his turnovers and mistakes more than made up for his superb leadership skills.
Trent Green: Green showed a lot of courage in coming back from a severe concussion last year, but his metrics after he returned were quite poor. His 6.5 YPA tied for 23rd in the league. His 60.4 success percentage was only slightly better than David Garrard's and was worse than Brad Johnson's. His 3.9 bad decision percentage was the 33rd-worst. The metrics indicate Green might not be the savior Dolphins fans are hoping he will be.
Underrated Quarterbacks
Marc Bulger
I know that Bulger made the Pro Bowl last year, but I believe he still doesn't get his due as one of the NFL's best quarterbacks. His 7.5 YPA was the eighth-best in the league and his 92.9 passer rating was seventh-best. Bulger had the fourth-lowest bad-decision percentage and the fifth-lowest weighted bad-decision percentage. He also had the fifth-lowest interception/near interception percentage. That Bulger was able to post these numbers in a new offensive system, and without Mike Martz calling the plays, says a lot for his ability.
J.P. Losman
Losman might be the best deep ball quarterback in the NFL today. His 698 bomb passing yards were the second-most in the league. He also had the fifth-highest YPA at that depth level. It isn't just a high YPA level that makes Losman a great vertical passer. He also had zero bad decisions on his bomb passes. That total wasn't a statistical anomaly either, as Losman's 33 bomb pass throws were the fifth-most in that category. If Jason Peters can keep Losman's blindside protected this year as well as he did late last year, Losman should be able to do even better on long passes in 2007.
Others:
Chad Pennington: The reason Pennington qualifies for this list is that he is a much better vertical passer than people think. He ranked 15th and 12th in bomb and deep-pass YPA last year. Pennington's 9.8 YPA on deep out passes was also the seventh-highest figure in the league. These metrics prove Pennington is able to beat a defense even on the toughest passes a quarterback has to throw.
Tony Romo: Romo was like Rivers in that his end-of-season performance tailed off, but his reputation seemed to take a much bigger hit than Rivers. This shouldn't have been the case, as Romo's end-of-season metrics were still among the best in the NFL. His 8.4 YPA was the highest in that category. Romo also had the second-highest success percentage and the highest SYPA rating.
July 25 Glossary
YPA (Yards Per Attempt): A quick barometer of a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end's efficiency.
Success Percentage: The percentage of plays a player does something successful with the ball. Successful plays include completions (for offensive players), incompletions (for defensive players) and penalty plays that go in the player's favor.
SYPA (Success percentage X Yards Per Attempt): A metric that combines both success percentage and YPA in an effort to measure a player's overall effectiveness.
Bad decisions: A quarterback is charged with a bad decision when he does something with the ball that either leads to, or nearly leads to, a turnover. The most common bad decisions are forcing passes into coverage or staring at receivers.
Weighted bad decision percentage: Bad decisions are given point totals based on the amount of damage they cause. Weighted bad decisions are those point totals expressed as a percentage of total pass attempts.
LINK
