ESPN: McShay: Scouting WRs is an Inexact Science

theogt

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I don't recall this ever being posted...so...

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Not easy to separate elite from ordinary

By Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.

Productive NFL wide receivers come in many different sizes, shapes and speeds. Just take a look at the wide receivers who led the NFL in catches last season. Sure, Houston's Andre Johnson fits the mold as the league leader with 103 receptions. After all, the former No. 3 overall pick (2003) checks in at 6-foot-3 and 219 pounds with 4.4 speed. But how do you explain Mike Furrey, a former undrafted free agent in 2000, hauling in the second-most passes (98) in 2006?

Other productive NFL receivers who slipped in recent drafts include Carolina's Steve Smith (third round, 2001), Seattle's Deion Branch (second round, 2002), Arizona's Anquan Boldin (second round, 2003), the N.Y. Jets' Jerricho Cotchery (fourth round, 2004) and New Orleans' Marques Colston (seventh round, 2006). Meanwhile, David Terrell (2001), Ashley Lelie (2002), Charles Rogers (2003) and Reggie Williams (2004) all looked the part as high draft picks coming out of college but haven't come close to matching production for investment.

The bottom line is that evaluating wide receiver talent from the college ranks has become maddening for NFL front offices. In my estimation, there are a couple reasons for this. First off, I would argue that quarterback is the only position with more outside factors to skew collegiate production. Secondly, the ability to "separate" is the most important skill for a wide receiver. Unfortunately, it also can be the trickiest to properly evaluate.

While catching the ball is the ultimate goal, a receiver with great hands is rendered useless if he can't get open. It's not difficult to evaluate a receiver's hands, top-end speed and leaping ability. The challenge when evaluating a wide receiver's separation skills is to sift through those potentially deceptive variables, which include his supporting cast, the offensive system he plays in and the types of defensive coverage and level of competition he faces.

To overcome those roadblocks a scout must first know what he's looking for and then know how to find it. Although there's no exact formula that makes up a receiver's ability to separate, here's a look at some of the key ingredients:

1. Initial burst:
This is the easiest of the four to measure. The best way to spot whether a receiver has good initial burst on game tape is to find the instances when he's working against an upper-echelon cornerback in man-to-man coverage. The ones gifted with this physical skill consistently drive the cornerback off the line of scrimmage, forcing him to open his hips earlier than usual. The first 10 yards of a 40-yard dash (aka 10-yard split) can also help to verify what is seen on film. Anything faster than a 1.50 is considered outstanding for a 10-yard split.

Branch and Colston are prime examples of receivers who didn't run elite times in the 40 but exploded out of the gates with quick 10-yard split times. It's worth mentioning that Aundrae Allison (East Carolina), Steve Breaston (Michigan), Mike Mason (Tennessee State), Robert Meachem (Tennessee), Sidney Rice (South Carolina), Laurent Robinson (Illinois State), Ryne Robinson (Miami-OH) and Steve Smith (USC) were the only receivers at this year's combine to clock 1.50 or faster in the 10-yard split.

2. Recognition/instincts:
I equate recognition skills and instincts to the difference between "book smarts" and "street smarts." Recognition skills can be learned over time, so long as a receiver has the mental capacity and will to comprehend coverages, tendencies and techniques. As far as instincts are concerned, wide receivers either have them or they don't.

Receivers rarely live up to their draft status as rookies because they are so bogged down trying to absorb more complicated NFL schemes -- both offensively and defensively. Once the X's and O's have been digested, then the receiver with good natural instincts can separate himself from the rest. The truly instinctive receivers have the best feel for finding soft spots in zone coverage and they also find subtle and savvy ways to attack the weaknesses of defensive backs in man-to-man coverage.

3. Change-of-direction skills:
NFL scouts will often ask, "Can he shift his weight without gearing down?" Essentially they're looking to find receivers capable of getting in and out of breaks (or cuts) in the least amount of time. As far as combine and pro day workouts are concerned, the best drills to measure change-of-direction skills are the shuttles (20-yard, 60-yard and three-cone).

The example I always use comes from the 2000 draft, when I had the opportunity to work with Florida WRs Travis Taylor and Darrell Jackson during pre-combine training. Taylor overshadowed Jackson in college because he was bigger and faster. But overlooked by most (myself included) was Jackson's far superior body control and short-area quickness, which could be witnessed when the two worked on route-running drills and shuttle testings. As expected, Taylor (Ravens, No. 10 overall) was drafted significantly higher than Jackson (Seahawks, third round). However, in seven seasons since, Jackson has notched 130 more receptions than his former Gators counterpart.

4. Competitiveness:
I know, it sounds cheesy. But it can't be ignored. The ultimate intangible is a receiver's competitiveness. A player must also have the mental toughness and stamina to outlast his opponent throughout the course of a four-quarter game. This can be the toughest of the four key ingredients to measure because it often fluctuates -- for better and for worse -- once a receiver makes the leap from college to the pros.

Jerry Rice will forever be the ultimate example of this attribute. A relentless approach to the craft -- both in practice and in games -- allowed Rice to overcome below-average speed throughout his brilliant 20-year career.

Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN Insider.
 

Bob Sacamano

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1.) and 2.) is why Sidney Rice will be a very good WR in the pros, he has outstanding initial burst and Spurrier's system is complicated
 

Hostile

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That was a very good article. At WR is where I think 40 time is really over rated. The reason Jerry Rice was the greatest WR to ever live is because he knew how to get separation. Whether it was wrong footing his opponent or just plain faking them out he could always get away. Irvin as we all know was great at the push off without drawing the flag. (Quit yer crying Skins and Eagles fans.) It doesn't matter how fast a WR is if he runs right at the coverage.

Unfortunately there is no way to accurately gauge separation. I tend to focus on hands. If a WR has a great pair of hands a QB will come to rely on him. Provided he works hard. The best recent example is Larry Fitzgerald out of Pittsburgh. I swear, that guy could catch a BB if you got it near his hands. Even if a defender is draped on him he will go get the ball. Owens does that. of course he drops a lot as we found out.

:bang2:

Speed can be a great asset, but it gets too much attention. The CBs are just as fast, if not faster. But if you get a WR who knows how to wrong foot a CB and makes them have to recover, then you have something. Marvin Harrison isn't the biggest or the fastest WR in the NFL. He isn't even close. But watch that guy run a route and it is precise. He is always finding ways to get open and when he does his QB finds him.
 

Zaxor

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Hostile;1436316 said:
That was a very good article. At WR is where I think 40 time is really over rated. The reason Jerry Rice was the greatest WR to ever live is because he knew how to get separation. Whether it was wrong footing his opponent or just plain faking them out he could always get away. Irvin as we all know was great at the push off without drawing the flag. (Quit yer crying Skins and Eagles fans.) It doesn't matter how fast a WR is if he runs right at the coverage.

Unfortunately there is no way to accurately gauge separation. I tend to focus on hands. If a WR has a great pair of hands a QB will come to rely on him. Provided he works hard. The best recent example is Larry Fitzgerald out of Pittsburgh. I swear, that guy could catch a BB if you got it near his hands. Even if a defender is draped on him he will go get the ball. Owens does that. of course he drops a lot as we found out.

:bang2:

Speed can be a great asset, but it gets too much attention. The CBs are just as fast, if not faster. But if you get a WR who knows how to wrong foot a CB and makes them have to recover, then you have something. Marvin Harrison isn't the biggest or the fastest WR in the NFL. He isn't even close. But watch that guy run a route and it is precise. He is always finding ways to get open and when he does his QB finds him.

I agree while speed is important... it isn't close to the most important thing for a WR... see Randal Williams & Anthony Wright for examples...it is hands, hands and hands again...than reading defenses, than route running, than body control...speed is like the icing...without the cake (the rest of the wr package) it is useless
 

Chocolate Lab

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Bob Sacamano;1436280 said:
1.) and 2.) is why Sidney Rice will be a very good WR in the pros, he has outstanding initial burst and Spurrier's system is complicated

Are you sure you want to claim that playing for Spurrier in college helps a WR's chances of making it in the pros?
 

Hostile

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Chocolate Lab;1436368 said:
Are you sure you want to claim that playing for Spurrier in college helps a WR's chances of making it in the pros?
I was going to ask the same thing. It is one of the reasons why I have very little interest in Rice.
 

Doomsday101

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I agree speed does not make a great WR, the ability to run crisp routs and a good burst coming out of the break to gain separation. I will say I think it is important to have at least 1 WR who can stretch a defense ala Harper, not the best rout runner or greatest hands but you had to respect his ability to stretch a defense.
 

Bob Sacamano

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Chocolate Lab;1436368 said:
Are you sure you want to claim that playing for Spurrier in college helps a WR's chances of making it in the pros?

it has nothing to do w/ Spurrier

read #2 on the list, Rice showed the ability to pick up Spurrier's offense
 

joseephuss

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Zaxor;1436357 said:
I agree while speed is important... it isn't close to the most important thing for a WR... see Randal Williams & Anthony Wright for examples...it is hands, hands and hands again...than reading defenses, than route running, than body control...speed is like the icing...without the cake (the rest of the wr package) it is useless

Alexander Wright. :)

Great points.
 

tyke1doe

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Hostile;1436316 said:
That was a very good article. At WR is where I think 40 time is really over rated. The reason Jerry Rice was the greatest WR to ever live is because he knew how to get separation. Whether it was wrong footing his opponent or just plain faking them out he could always get away. Irvin as we all know was great at the push off without drawing the flag. (Quit yer crying Skins and Eagles fans.) It doesn't matter how fast a WR is if he runs right at the coverage.

Unfortunately there is no way to accurately gauge separation. I tend to focus on hands. If a WR has a great pair of hands a QB will come to rely on him. Provided he works hard. The best recent example is Larry Fitzgerald out of Pittsburgh. I swear, that guy could catch a BB if you got it near his hands. Even if a defender is draped on him he will go get the ball. Owens does that. of course he drops a lot as we found out.

:bang2:

Speed can be a great asset, but it gets too much attention. The CBs are just as fast, if not faster. But if you get a WR who knows how to wrong foot a CB and makes them have to recover, then you have something. Marvin Harrison isn't the biggest or the fastest WR in the NFL. He isn't even close. But watch that guy run a route and it is precise. He is always finding ways to get open and when he does his QB finds him.


Good post.

As high on Ted Ginn Jr. as I am, I would say there's a draw back to having speed. I think speed guys get lazy with their technique. They're so used to beating guys by sheer speed that they may not focus as much on technique.

Really, when you think about it, how many of the truly great receivers had sub-4.4 or even 4.3 speed?
 

ZeroClub

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A couple of random thoughts.

Having a future Hall of Fame QB (or two) throwing to you doesn't hurt a WR's chances.

Playing in a West Coast, Air-Coryell, or otherwise pass-intensive offense helps too.

Rice was a perfect player in part because he was a great player who played in a near perfect situation.

---

Raw speed, in and of itself, isn't enough. In some cases, raw speed isn't even required.

All things being equal, though, I'd guess that the WR's raw speed tends to help his teammates' production. When the opposition is afraid of a very fast WR getting behind the defense, things tend to open up for others.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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Bob Sacamano;1436399 said:
it has nothing to do w/ Spurrier

read #2 on the list, Rice showed the ability to pick up Spurrier's offense

you wnat me to list the florida WRs drafted in recent years and their career stats or are you just going to stop with this nonsense?
 

Bob Sacamano

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FuzzyLumpkins;1436674 said:
you wnat me to list the florida WRs drafted in recent years and their career stats or are you just going to stop with this nonsense?

Spurrier's offense is a complex one for WRs to learn, the article mentions in point #2 that one of the ways for a WR to succeed, is their ability to digest the Xs and Os, so w/ that, Rice managed to successfully digest Spurrier's playbook

plus his 10-yard dash time, 1.5, is very good

btw, Darrell Jackson has gone on to have a very productive career, Rice can too
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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Bob Sacamano;1436748 said:
Spurrier's offense is a complex one for WRs to learn, the article mentions in point #2 that one of the ways for a WR to succeed, is their ability to digest the Xs and Os, so w/ that, Rice managed to successfully digest Spurrier's playbook

plus his 10-yard dash time, 1.5, is very good

btw, Darrell Jackson has gone on to have a very productive career, Rice can too

Wella ll those other WRs that flopped in the NFL from Spurrier teams also understood his offense and it didnt help them but hey you just keep going this type of stuff is always good for a laugh.
 

hendog

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Aundrea Allison from ECU is someone I'd be interested in.
 

bayarealightning

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As a kid, I watched "old man" Charlie Joiner consistantly beat even the best of CBs. I learned early that precise route running will get you the separation that a WR needs. WRs generally do not run in a straight line and then cut into their patern. They usually run stems to disguise the route they are running. The WR who can sell a DB that he is running pattern A while really running pattern B is the guy that you want. I believe that in college, WRs can get away with using talent/speed alone and they do not learn the little things that make a successful WR. In the NFL, everyone has talent. They have to hone their craft to be the best.

An example is Ashlie Lelie. The kid has all of the physical tools that you would want in a WR, but he doesn't get it. Denver brought in Javon Walker last year and he did not want to compete. He thought it was his right to be the #1 receiver when Rod Smith no longer could carry that moniker. The article talks about the short shuttles as a way of guaging that talent. However, I would want to see what the kid did in games and how consistant his routes were. So judging outside of film, I would look for talent in the #1 & 3 catagories. Just one man's opinion.
 

Bob Sacamano

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FuzzyLumpkins;1436751 said:
Wella ll those other WRs that flopped in the NFL from Spurrier teams also understood his offense and it didnt help them but hey you just keep going this type of stuff is always good for a laugh.

not everything follows a pattern Fuzzy, I wish you could understand that

Aundray Bruce :lmao2:
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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Bob Sacamano;1436799 said:
not everything follows a pattern Fuzzy, I wish you could understand that

Aundray Bruce :lmao2:

it was an error summer. i went through over 200 players and as i have stated repeatedly several times i was not familiar with a lot of the players from the eighties.

thats what was so stupid about you and Alex's diatribe that night. i specifically stated that i wasnt sureabout a lot of the players from the eighties right fron the outset and in comes Alex trying to slam me on those very things and you following him around like that dog from looney toons with your smileys. oh you guys sure got me good there. :rolleyes:

the difference between you and i is that i will freely admit it when there is a glaring error however you still keep up with the spurrier nonsense.

If you want to feel better about yourself because you know about linemen from the 80s then go for it. thats quite an accomplishment there.
 

Bob Sacamano

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FuzzyLumpkins;1436811 said:
the difference between you and i is that i will freely admit it when there is a glaring error however you still keep up with the spurrier nonsense.

what Spurrier nonsense? that I don't look at Rice's pro potential from the system he was apart of in college? why don't you try evaluating a prospect by actually looking at the prospect

that's the problem w/ you, you hang onto the littlest detail that has nothing to do w/ NFL success or failure, like 1st round receivers have busted 49% of the time, that stat is useless
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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Bob Sacamano;1436826 said:
what Spurrier nonsense? that I don't look at Rice's pro potential from the system he was apart of in college? why don't you try evaluating a prospect by actually looking at the prospect

that's the problem w/ you, you hang onto the littlest detail that has nothing to do w/ NFL success or failure, like 1st round receivers have busted 49% of the time, that stat is useless

Of all the WRs that have been drafted out of a Spurrier program you can only mention one that was worth a flip. Many were highly touted and first day draft picks. Past performance is the best predictor of future success.

The past performance of Spurriers wideouts has been absolutely horrible.
 
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