Evaluating the thinking of the Cowboys recent trades

[KingCorcoran]

Yeah that's the problem here it's not flawed because none of that's happened and you don't know what's going to happen OK Nostradamus how about we wait and see before he make that kind of statement as if it's set in stone it's uh all that's going to happen...

I mean you would think a guy like T Higgins he plays well enough to be a number one on another team, but he didn't want to leave, I think he's comfortable with the situation he got paid well, but he's not making number one money, that would be the guy on the other side and Jamar Chase but they seem to coexist, just fine...Same with Brown and smith over in shegal land..it CAN happen

Higgins got $28.75 million per season and was not a free agent. Pickens can be a free agent if the Cowboys don’t tag him. As it stands now, if they tag him they can’t tag Parsons. This scenario should, but seemingly doesn’t, concern Jerry.

 

[Verdict]

The Pickens deal might turn into an interesting situation. He’s potentially not just a one year rental.

1. Cowboys can resign him if they want to.
2. If he balls out the Cowboys can tag him and let him play on one of the franchise tags.
3. Cowboys can tag and trade him and potentially recoup more they gave for him. With Dak’s tendency to run up stats in meaningless wins he could have a huge year.
4. The draft compensation given up is significant BUT it’s way cheaper that paying market value for a legit #2 receiver. Plus our draft picks used on receivers haven’t turned out so well.

 

[McKDaddy]

My only problem with the Pickens trade is why make that trade if you aren’t “going for it” this year?

The circus requires just enough "new possibilities" to keep ticket sales and viewership flowing. They know they aren't competing for a championship on the field.

 

[fivetwos]

Higgins got $28.75 million per season and was not a free agent. Pickens can be a free agent if the Cowboys don’t tag him. As it stands now, if they tag him they can’t tag Parsons. This scenario should, but seemingly doesn’t, concern Jerry.

Pickens holding out on the tag is the subject of next years episode.

 

[Pentagruel]

The first two trades for Lance and Mingo were obviously and immediately poor deals.

The Lance trade was unsound in theory from the very start. If Shannahan couldn’t make it work with him then that’s a pretty good sign that he won’t come good. But even getting past that, he was at the end of his rookie deal so if he did play well you couldn’t really use him as leverage against Dak since you’d have to re-sign Lance to a sizeable deal too. On top of that, he was a high first round draft pick so he wasn’t even cheap financially. Then in execution it was even worse then in theory because he apparently wasn’t even good enough to be Dak’s backup when he went down for the season. We simply gave SF a 4th round pick and then paid 5.3m for the privilege.

The Mingo deal was somewhat less horrific but to me, just as infuriating, since we just saw how that was working out with Lance. Fourth round picks are fairly premium draft capital and it should not be traded lightly. Then they do it again on another player that had a very minute chance of working out. Generally when a team jettisons a high draft pick within 2 years it’s a pretty good sign that he’s a bust. Maybe Mingo will become a serviceable bit player, though even that I’m skeptical. That’s not worth a 4th round pick to me.

The Pickens deal at least is good enough value for me. You are getting a good player here. However, as has been mentioned, does it make sense in the context of the Cowboys’ current situation? Are they just a player from contending? Are they prepared to give him a big deal if he performs? Is it smart to be paying two WR big money if you do? Context matters. The best case scenario is Pickens plays well and he is willing to take a somewhat reasonable deal. That would still be big money but if it’s good value then you could work around that when rebuilding the rest of the roster. The second best case is he plays so well he nets you a 3rd round compensatory pick and recoups most of what you gave up. At least this deal is defensible, even if in the context of the Cowboys’ situation it’s probably also not a smart deal.

 

[DanTanna]

Pickens was a total malcontent at the Steelers. They were very excited to unload him.

He absolutely WILL be a huge problem when trying to sign him after this season. No ands ifs or butts about it.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Trades in the NFL are much less common than the NBA, MLB AND NHL. The complexities of the NFL salary cap make it much more difficult to make a lot of trades.

In the last three seasons, the Cowboys have made three trades that been interesting to say the least. In two of those trades it remains to be seen how effective they have been for the team’s long term success. I want to look at those trades, the thinking behind them, and if that thinking is going to help the team in the long run.

Here are the last 3 trades we have made:

• 2023 - Acquired QB Trey Lance from the 49ers for a 4th round pick. Lance had two years left in his rookie contract.
• 2024 - Acquired WR Jonathan Mingo and a 7th round pick from the panthers for a 4th round pick. Mingo has two more years on his rookie deal.
• 2025 - Acquired WR George Pickens and a 2027 6th round pick from the stealers in exchange for a 2026 3rd round pick and a 2027 5th round pick. Pickens is in the final year of his rookie contract.

Evaluations of those trades:

• The Lance trade: An absolute train wreck. Did not help the team in the short or long term. Gave up a 2024 4th round pick and ended up playing Lance in one regular season game over two seasons. Even after the 2024 season was lost, the team chose to play Cooper Rush at QB after Dak was hurt and both QBs were gone in 2025. Lance was paid $5.3 million his last year here. Which was only $700k less than what the ravens paid Derrick Henry in 2024. Lance was released last spring.
• The Mingo trade: Still too early…BUT…as it stands right now, we gave up a 4th round pick for a backup WR. Even if he ends up being the 3rd WR, is that a smart use of a 4th round pick? No. In fairness, if Mingo eventually develops into a #2 WR, maybe it can be considered a good trade.
• The Pickens trade: Obviously remains to be seen. Pickens is a real talent and he will certainly help this team NOW. But he’s on the last year of his rookie deal. Do we think we can afford two high paid WRs? Will this FO pony up?

My only problem with the Pickens trade is why make that trade if you aren’t “going for it” this year? If he ends up not re-signing here, he becomes a one year rental in exchange for 3rd and 5th round picks of the future.

We have to hope for the best with Mingo and Pickens. But as we say all the time, “Hope is not a strategy”.

The Cowboys are going for it this year with the Pickens move.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Pickens was a total malcontent at the Steelers. They were very excited to unload him.

Yeah and it’s weird. Because from what I’ve seen he isn’t a bad guy. He wants the football like most receivers. Not sure what made him any different.

 

[Flamma]

Here are the last 3 trades we have made:

• 2023 - Acquired QB Trey Lance from the 49ers for a 4th round pick. Lance had two years left in his rookie contract.
• 2024 - Acquired WR Jonathan Mingo and a 7th round pick from the panthers for a 4th round pick. Mingo has two more years on his rookie deal.
• 2025 - Acquired WR George Pickens and a 2027 6th round pick from the stealers in exchange for a 2026 3rd round pick and a 2027 5th round pick. Pickens is in the final year of his rookie contract.

Let me give you my dopey opinion. My opinions are based on the belief this organization wants to be .500 or better every year. The reason for these trades is all based on that.

Trey Lance. Similar to acquiring Milton, Jerry is trying to backdoor his way into another franchise QB. No need to be really bad. No need to use picks to trade up.

Jonathan Mingo. I have no idea what the mindset was here. Just use the 4th round pick on a WR. My guess is that they thought he was really good, but the Panthers QB sucked.

Pickens. Same reason they traded for Cooper. To make the team better this year. Even if they give him a contract next year, his acquisition was never meant to be anything more than making the team competitive. I can't remember the last time this team made moves to actually be contenders. Do you remember? The 2006 area? Think of the 2016 Cowboys. The Jerry Jones of old would have tried to get what's needed to get over the top. He did nothing. As if it never happened.

 

[jblaze2004]

Trades in the NFL are much less common than the NBA, MLB AND NHL. The complexities of the NFL salary cap make it much more difficult to make a lot of trades.

In the last three seasons, the Cowboys have made three trades that been interesting to say the least. In two of those trades it remains to be seen how effective they have been for the team’s long term success. I want to look at those trades, the thinking behind them, and if that thinking is going to help the team in the long run.

Here are the last 3 trades we have made:

• 2023 - Acquired QB Trey Lance from the 49ers for a 4th round pick. Lance had two years left in his rookie contract.
• 2024 - Acquired WR Jonathan Mingo and a 7th round pick from the panthers for a 4th round pick. Mingo has two more years on his rookie deal.
• 2025 - Acquired WR George Pickens and a 2027 6th round pick from the stealers in exchange for a 2026 3rd round pick and a 2027 5th round pick. Pickens is in the final year of his rookie contract.

Evaluations of those trades:

• The Lance trade: An absolute train wreck. Did not help the team in the short or long term. Gave up a 2024 4th round pick and ended up playing Lance in one regular season game over two seasons. Even after the 2024 season was lost, the team chose to play Cooper Rush at QB after Dak was hurt and both QBs were gone in 2025. Lance was paid $5.3 million his last year here. Which was only $700k less than what the ravens paid Derrick Henry in 2024. Lance was released last spring.
• The Mingo trade: Still too early…BUT…as it stands right now, we gave up a 4th round pick for a backup WR. Even if he ends up being the 3rd WR, is that a smart use of a 4th round pick? No. In fairness, if Mingo eventually develops into a #2 WR, maybe it can be considered a good trade.
• The Pickens trade: Obviously remains to be seen. Pickens is a real talent and he will certainly help this team NOW. But he’s on the last year of his rookie deal. Do we think we can afford two high paid WRs? Will this FO pony up?

My only problem with the Pickens trade is why make that trade if you aren’t “going for it” this year? If he ends up not re-signing here, he becomes a one year rental in exchange for 3rd and 5th round picks of the future.

We have to hope for the best with Mingo and Pickens. But as we say all the time, “Hope is not a strategy”.

When you have a terrible GM you get terrible trades. Trading a 4th for Lance and then not playing him when Dak went down was just dumb in my opinion. We traded a 4th down draft pick for a clip board holder basically. He wasn't even a second QB unless Dak went down.

The trade for Mingo could be ok IF we believed he could be a nice number 2 or even a number 3 WR. But then we trade for Pickens who SHOULD help us this year but will we resign him? And Mingo at best can be a 3rd WR if we resign Pickens. Or Hopefully WR 2 if Pickens move on. I don't think we will get much return on the MIngo trade. Tolbert has to be trade bait this year right? Tolbert has shown waaayyyy more than Mingo ever has. I bet we can't even get a 4th for him. Too bad there aren't 2 Jerry Jones in the NFL lol.

 

[MarkP88]

As usual, there's no team building strategy at work. It's just throwing spaghetti at the wall.

 

[Bobhaze]

The Cowboys are going for it this year with the Pickens move.

If we are “going for it”, why haven’t we addressed the D more? Why the foot dragging on Parsons? Help me understand.

 

[Bobhaze]

The first two trades for Lance and Mingo were obviously and immediately poor deals.

The Lance trade was unsound in theory from the very start. If Shannahan couldn’t make it work with him then that’s a pretty good sign that he won’t come good. But even getting past that, he was at the end of his rookie deal so if he did play well you couldn’t really use him as leverage against Dak since you’d have to re-sign Lance to a sizeable deal too. On top of that, he was a high first round draft pick so he wasn’t even cheap financially. Then in execution it was even worse then in theory because he apparently wasn’t even good enough to be Dak’s backup when he went down for the season. We simply gave SF a 4th round pick and then paid 5.3m for the privilege.

The Mingo deal was somewhat less horrific but to me, just as infuriating, since we just saw how that was working out with Lance. Fourth round picks are fairly premium draft capital and it should not be traded lightly. Then they do it again on another player that had a very minute chance of working out. Generally when a team jettisons a high draft pick within 2 years it’s a pretty good sign that he’s a bust. Maybe Mingo will become a serviceable bit player, though even that I’m skeptical. That’s not worth a 4th round pick to me.

The Pickens deal at least is good enough value for me. You are getting a good player here. However, as has been mentioned, does it make sense in the context of the Cowboys’ current situation? Are they just a player from contending? Are they prepared to give him a big deal if he performs? Is it smart to be paying two WR big money if you do? Context matters. The best case scenario is Pickens plays well and he is willing to take a somewhat reasonable deal. That would still be big money but if it’s good value then you could work around that when rebuilding the rest of the roster. The second best case is he plays so well he nets you a 3rd round compensatory pick and recoups most of what you gave up. At least this deal is defensible, even if in the context of the Cowboys’ situation it’s probably also not a smart deal.

Great post! Great points!

 

[CWR]

That would be a pretty poor one year ROI unless he propels us deep into the playoffs.
Best case scenario is he puts up solid #2 WR stats and in turn we re-sign him to a long term #2 WR contract.
Obviously, it would help the team if he puts up monster numbers this year, but can the Cowboys pay both him and CD #1 WR money?

I believe they can, but will they is the question.

 

[ArtClink]

I'm not interested in other teams. With Lance no team was going to give up more than a later day 3 pick based on his work . A reckless gamble by the Cowboys to try and prove 31 other teams wrong. Mingo we agree on. With Pickens the Cowboys have little leverage.

This.

 

[jazzcat22]

Higgins has been a good citizen with Bengals. Can't say the same with Pickens so far.

What has Pickens done here?
He has been nothing but a good teammate at TC.

 

[maryquality]

Bob, you must have a doctorate in psychology to try and evaluate anything our FO is thinking!! I never know what these clowns are thinking!!! I'm afraid if I try, they may have to put me in an asylum because my mind will explode!! I will never understand their logic, or lack thereof.

 

[jazzcat22]

I think fans tend to overthink things too much about all of this.
I know many are against whatever the team does and based on the FO history I can't blame them.
As most is hindsight anyway. I best watch saying that though.

Lance was a good trade and idea at the time. Jerry blew that one by not allowing MM to play him when Dak went down. Or at least give him some opportunities.

Mingo, same thing. We need to see him this year, and from TC it seems he has done well.

Pickens was a great trade. We will get a 3rd round comp pick if he is not here, not sure why some saying a 4th. I guess to make it seem worse. If Pickens doesn't ball out to get that 3rd, then the problems lies elsewhere. Look what he did in Pittsburgh with the bad QB's he had there.

I will wait until after the season to see what happens. Jerry said, and yes he says a lot of crap. They traded for Pickens with the idea to sign him long term.

And who do you think they could have drafted that would be any better for a 4th or 5th round pick.
I mean, come on, the same fans are saying tap the brakes on Blue or whoever, they were a 5th round pick, or another player was a 4th round, tap the brakes. Yet they claim they could have got a great player with those picks. Come on man.

Tolbert was a 3rd round pick, and how many are now saying he won't make the team over a 5th or 6th or UDFA WR.

 

[blueblood70]

Let me give you my dopey opinion. My opinions are based on the belief this organization wants to be .500 or better every year. The reason for these trades is all based on that.

Trey Lance. Similar to acquiring Milton, Jerry is trying to backdoor his way into another franchise QB. No need to be really bad. No need to use picks to trade up.

Jonathan Mingo. I have no idea what the mindset was here. Just use the 4th round pick on a WR. My guess is that they thought he was really good, but the Panthers QB sucked.

Pickens. Same reason they traded for Cooper. To make the team better this year. Even if they give him a contract next year, his acquisition was never meant to be anything more than making the team competitive. I can't remember the last time this team made moves to actually be contenders. Do you remember? The 2006 area? Think of the 2016 Cowboys. The Jerry Jones of old would have tried to get what's needed to get over the top. He did nothing. As if it never happened.

Back door you mean like Tom Brady and guys like Brock Purdy Oh I don't know UDFA a Hall of Famer in Kurt warner.. I do realize that it takes a lot of luck to hit on a franchise quarterback sometimes the ones taken in the top 10 seldom work out I know they can and they have but it's equal that you find in quarterbacks after the 4th round or undrafted that's what he's doing..

We're sitting here off the top of my head Brett Favre very similar You get a guy that Atlanta no longer wanted and Green Bay turned him into a Hall of Fame Super Bowl winning caliber quarterback by making a trade like that.. Absolutely no one knew when they're making these deals if they're gonna workout or not but you just keep making them whether they seem bad to you or not There are lots of proof that it can work.

Teams out there that can't even use the front door and find a starting quarterback let alone a backup quarterback so we could stop the nonsense at sometimes getting on Jerry being critical when you don't see what he's trying to do as if it doesn't pertain to the rest of the league....

 

[sunalsorises]

The Lance trade never made sense. At best, Lance lives up to his draft position and Dallas trades him away for a higher pick, I guess. There was no way he was ever going to start so an adequate backup could have been found for a lot cheaper if Dallas had kept the draft pick and used it on a QB.

Micah Parsons almost must be signed this year if the Pickens trade is going to work out, unless Dallas wins the Super Bowl this year. I don't see how both players get a new contract next year with the way Jerry negotiates.

I'm not sure Mingo becomes better than what could have been drafted at receiver with the 4th round pick. Maybe worth the gamble to at least try, though.