Even Considering Drafting Jeanty is Insane

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Here is a hypothetical:

Let’s say the Cowboys were going to draft a WR in the top 10. You are given clairvoyant vision of what this player will become. Jalen Tolbert eventually evolves into CeeDee’s #2, and this WR will never be better than the #3 WR on the team. Was that a wise choice for a top 10 draft pick? What about top 20? What about first round?

In 2024, Darnell Mooney signed a 3y, 39m$ contract to be the #3 WR for the Atlanta Falcons. 13m$ a year. Good number 2’s like Waddle and Smith and Deebo are going for 20-25m$, so a #3 who is also a starter is about right at 13m$.

Saquon Barkley signed for 13.5m$ AAV. Josh Jacobs signed for 12m$ AAV. Derrick Henry signed for 9m$ AAV. Joe Mixon signed for 8.5m$ AAV. Aaron Jones signed for 7m$ AAV. Little bit of backtracking here, but Had the Falcons simply signed one of these guys instead of Mooney and not taken Bijan Robinson, they would have their star RB and the 8th overall pick in the 2023 draft. Now, going back to the previous question, Would you have taken Darnell Mooney 8th overall? Or would you have taken Jalen Carter? Peter Skoronski? Calijah Kancey? This is effectively the question with Ashton Jeanty. Why are you even considering taking a player with the value of a third WR that early in the draft? Think about the dumb teams who do that stuff:

Atlanta with Bijan Robinson. Has Bijan improved Atlanta’s future in any discernible way? They had a dominant run game before he got there. They’re about the same team before he was draft, plus Kirk Cousins. And now he’s already 2 years into his 8 year shelf life. Would they be viewed as a better team right now if Jalen Carter was on their DLine? Peter Skoronski was on their Oline? Of course they would be. A better team now and a better future.

Cleveland with Trent Richardson. A complete bust, but he was also viewed as the next great NFL RB. How would Cleveland’s future change at all had he been a hit? What changes? They win an extra game here or there from big runs maybe, but otherwise they’re exactly the same team, he washes out in 2020 due to RB age, and nothing else changes.

Detroit with Jahmyr Gibbs. He’s playing well for them. But had they not drafted him and just kept 2023 pro bowler and 1000 yard rusher Deandre Swift, let’s say he can produce 75% of what Gibbs can. Combined with David Montgomery and that Oline, that is still a dominant, top 5 rushing attack. But now you also have the 12th overall 2023 draft draft pick back. If you took today’s Detroit Lions, put Deandre Swift and Will McDonald (who was the next DE taken and has 8 sacks so far this year) on that team, they’re better. They’re better now, and they have an extremely bright future with McDonald and Hutchinson terrorizing offenses for the next decade, instead of Gibbs wearing down by 2027-2028.

New York Giants with Saquon Barkley. How did Saquon Barkley improve the NYG better than Josh Allen would have? They took Daniel Jones the very next draft so it’s not as if they weren’t in position to take a QB. But let’s keep this a Dallas parallel and stick to lineman. The next Dlineman taken was Bradley Chubb. The next Olineman taken was Quenton Nelson. Vita Vea went 12th. Daron Payne went 13th. Kolton Miller went 15. Frank Ragnow went 20. Teams in the teens were out drafting the team that drafted 2nd because they made the worst value mistake a team can make.

And now, Dallas Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliot. Over the last 8 years, what has the Dallas Cowboys accomplished that wouldn’t have been possible without Zeke? 1st seed in 2016? You won the 1st seed by 2 games and had the tie breaker on the #2 seed. You very plausibly still get it with a lesser RB picked up in FA. Zeke had pro bowl years after that, but 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020…. 1 playoff season there, and it was the only season he averaged over 4.5 ypc. He became more a workhorse than a star back. A guy you run into the ground more than a guy who runs the defense into the ground. And he’s probably the best result on this list for the drafting team. But are you in a better place right now than if you had taken the next lineman off the board… franchise LT Ronnie Stanley and moved him to RT? You would have had the best tackle combo in the nfl until Tyron left, and you’d still have him in his prime today. Or maybe you felt your line was fine and went for the next D lineman. Deforest Buckner is a DT with 65 career sacks, and playing well again this year. You would have been better on his rookie contract, better today, and way better for the future. You don’t need to burn a pick on Mazi if you have Buckner. The next guy is Sheldon Rankins, another DT… but he can play 3-tech or NT. A vary valuable player. Unlike Zeke, he’s not a star, but he’s still making 12m$ a season 8 years after his draft because he’s an above average player at an incredibly important platoon.

Jeanty would be out of the league in 8 years, and you’d be fortunate to get more than a few dominant seasons out of him. Giants got 1 out of Saquon. Dallas got 3 out of Zeke and that was a huge success. Lions may never get one out of Gibbs if they keep using him in a committee. Bijan may finish with around 1200 yards this year… is that a dominant season with a 17 game schedule? 8th overall dominant?

There is no value in taking a running back anywhere earlier than… 25th? The monetary value is terrible, the return on investment is terrible, the team improvement is limited, and the lifespan is the worst in professional sports. Bad front offices do this. Cleveland, NYG, Minnesota with AP (HoFer… they had the exact same problems with him that they did without, aside from the Favre year). Lions are looking great right now, but that pick does nothing to help their longevity.


QB.

Oline.

Dline.

WR if you have those covered

CB if you have those covered

LB if you run a 3-4

——————————

RB or TE is a complete waste of draft value before the second round. Why would you take a guy who has the monetary value of a #3 WR with a draft pick people are using on their franchise QBs? Their franchise LT’s? Their 15 year Dlineman? A guy who is wholly dependent on the quality of the Oline to even function properly? It’s actually crazy.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Carolina with Christian McCaffrey. A few great seasons, made little difference overall, ended up trading him for pennies on the dollar. RBs are like a new car, the moment you drive them off the lot, they greatly depreciate in value.

 

[KingintheNorth]

Never underestimate Jerry searching for easy answers (aka he is lazy).


Jeanty is a name. Jeanty sells jerseys. On top of that, he’s from Frisco.

 

[Rayman70]

Devin Neal instead please. Mid round pick and the guy will play for 10 years.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Here is a hypothetical:

Let’s say the Cowboys were going to draft a WR in the top 10. You are given clairvoyant vision of what this player will become. Jalen Tolbert eventually evolves into CeeDee’s #2, and this WR will never be better than the #3 WR on the team. Was that a wise choice for a top 10 draft pick? What about top 20? What about first round?

In 2024, Darnell Mooney signed a 3y, 39m$ contract to be the #3 WR for the Atlanta Falcons. 13m$ a year. Good number 2’s like Waddle and Smith and Deebo are going for 20-25m$, so a #3 who is also a starter is about right at 13m$.

Saquon Barkley signed for 13.5m$ AAV. Josh Jacobs signed for 12m$ AAV. Derrick Henry signed for 9m$ AAV. Joe Mixon signed for 8.5m$ AAV. Aaron Jones signed for 7m$ AAV. Little bit of backtracking here, but Had the Falcons simply signed one of these guys instead of Mooney and not taken Bijan Robinson, they would have their star RB and the 8th overall pick in the 2023 draft. Now, going back to the previous question, Would you have taken Darnell Mooney 8th overall? Or would you have taken Jalen Carter? Peter Skoronski? Calijah Kancey? This is effectively the question with Ashton Jeanty. Why are you even considering taking a player with the value of a third WR that early in the draft? Think about the dumb teams who do that stuff:

Atlanta with Bijan Robinson. Has Bijan improved Atlanta’s future in any discernible way? They had a dominant run game before he got there. They’re about the same team before he was draft, plus Kirk Cousins. And now he’s already 2 years into his 8 year shelf life. Would they be viewed as a better team right now if Jalen Carter was on their DLine? Peter Skoronski was on their Oline? Of course they would be. A better team now and a better future.

Cleveland with Trent Richardson. A complete bust, but he was also viewed as the next great NFL RB. How would Cleveland’s future change at all had he been a hit? What changes? They win an extra game here or there from big runs maybe, but otherwise they’re exactly the same team, he washes out in 2020 due to RB age, and nothing else changes.

Detroit with Jahmyr Gibbs. He’s playing well for them. But had they not drafted him and just kept 2023 pro bowler and 1000 yard rusher Deandre Swift, let’s say he can produce 75% of what Gibbs can. Combined with David Montgomery and that Oline, that is still a dominant, top 5 rushing attack. But now you also have the 12th overall 2023 draft draft pick back. If you took today’s Detroit Lions, put Deandre Swift and Will McDonald (who was the next DE taken and has 8 sacks so far this year) on that team, they’re better. They’re better now, and they have an extremely bright future with McDonald and Hutchinson terrorizing offenses for the next decade, instead of Gibbs wearing down by 2027-2028.

New York Giants with Saquon Barkley. How did Saquon Barkley improve the NYG better than Josh Allen would have? They took Daniel Jones the very next draft so it’s not as if they weren’t in position to take a QB. But let’s keep this a Dallas parallel and stick to lineman. The next Dlineman taken was Bradley Chubb. The next Olineman taken was Quenton Nelson. Vita Vea went 12th. Daron Payne went 13th. Kolton Miller went 15. Frank Ragnow went 20. Teams in the teens were out drafting the team that drafted 2nd because they made the worst value mistake a team can make.

And now, Dallas Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliot. Over the last 8 years, what has the Dallas Cowboys accomplished that wouldn’t have been possible without Zeke? 1st seed in 2016? You won the 1st seed by 2 games and had the tie breaker on the #2 seed. You very plausibly still get it with a lesser RB picked up in FA. Zeke had pro bowl years after that, but 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020…. 1 playoff season there, and it was the only season he averaged over 4.5 ypc. He became more a workhorse than a star back. A guy you run into the ground more than a guy who runs the defense into the ground. And he’s probably the best result on this list for the drafting team. But are you in a better place right now than if you had taken the next lineman off the board… franchise LT Ronnie Stanley and moved him to RT? You would have had the best tackle combo in the nfl until Tyron left, and you’d still have him in his prime today. Or maybe you felt your line was fine and went for the next D lineman. Deforest Buckner is a DT with 65 career sacks, and playing well again this year. You would have been better on his rookie contract, better today, and way better for the future. You don’t need to burn a pick on Mazi if you have Buckner. The next guy is Sheldon Rankins, another DT… but he can play 3-tech or NT. A vary valuable player. Unlike Zeke, he’s not a star, but he’s still making 12m$ a season 8 years after his draft because he’s an above average player at an incredibly important platoon.

Jeanty would be out of the league in 8 years, and you’d be fortunate to get more than a few dominant seasons out of him. Giants got 1 out of Saquon. Dallas got 3 out of Zeke and that was a huge success. Lions may never get one out of Gibbs if they keep using him in a committee. Bijan may finish with around 1200 yards this year… is that a dominant season with a 17 game schedule? 8th overall dominant?

There is no value in taking a running back anywhere earlier than… 25th? The monetary value is terrible, the return on investment is terrible, the team improvement is limited, and the lifespan is the worst in professional sports. Bad front offices do this. Cleveland, NYG, Minnesota with AP (HoFer… they had the exact same problems with him that they did without, aside from the Favre year). Lions are looking great right now, but that pick does nothing to help their longevity.


QB.

Oline.

Dline.

WR if you have those covered

CB if you have those covered

LB if you run a 3-4

——————————

RB or TE is a complete waste of draft value before the second round. Why would you take a guy who has the monetary value of a #3 WR with a draft pick people are using on their franchise QBs? Their franchise LT’s? Their 15 year Dlineman? A guy who is wholly dependent on the quality of the Oline to even function properly? It’s actually crazy.

This analysis has a huge blind spot and I don’t advocate for taking a RB Top 10, but for the sake of argument:

The value of taking a RB high is that no other position is easier to transition into and provide immediate returns than RB.

You get instant returns on a relative bargain of an AAV. Let’s say the middle of the first round (pick #16). Last year, pick #16 (Byron Murphy) signed a rookie contract worth $16.1M/4-years, for an AAV of ~$4M.

That’s nothing; an absolute steal.

Now imagine getting a game changing RB on a rookie deal for 3-4 years at that value?

That just makes dollars and sense as they say.

 

[cristglo]

If you make a trade down and pick up other picks Yeah He is worth it.

 

[darthseinfeld]

This analysis has a huge blind spot and I don’t advocate for taking a RB Top 10, but for the sake of argument:

The value of taking a RB high is that no other position is easier to transition into and provide immediate returns than RB.

You get instant returns on a relative bargain of an AAV. Let’s say the middle of the first round (pick #16). Last year, pick #16 (Byron Murphy) signed a rookie contract worth $16.1M/4-years, for an AAV of ~$4M.

That’s nothing; an absolute steal.

Now imagine getting a game changing RB on a rookie deal for 3-4 years at that value?

That just makes dollars and sense as they say.

I think a HB could be good value if you are picking them past the top 20. You can get those immediate returns at a bargin price. With Jeanty, you are taking him in a place where you should be looking for a guy that could be playing at a 30m AAV value or so. And will still be a foundation peice when he is making that money. That was the folly of Elliott over Ramsey, Staley and Buckner

You look at a guy Josh Jacobs in 2019, you pass on Hollywood Brown, and Montez Sweat. Both very good players, but you dont feel like you have lost as much in the long term

 

[darthseinfeld]

Here is a hypothetical:

Let’s say the Cowboys were going to draft a WR in the top 10. You are given clairvoyant vision of what this player will become. Jalen Tolbert eventually evolves into CeeDee’s #2, and this WR will never be better than the #3 WR on the team. Was that a wise choice for a top 10 draft pick? What about top 20? What about first round?

In 2024, Darnell Mooney signed a 3y, 39m$ contract to be the #3 WR for the Atlanta Falcons. 13m$ a year. Good number 2’s like Waddle and Smith and Deebo are going for 20-25m$, so a #3 who is also a starter is about right at 13m$.

Saquon Barkley signed for 13.5m$ AAV. Josh Jacobs signed for 12m$ AAV. Derrick Henry signed for 9m$ AAV. Joe Mixon signed for 8.5m$ AAV. Aaron Jones signed for 7m$ AAV. Little bit of backtracking here, but Had the Falcons simply signed one of these guys instead of Mooney and not taken Bijan Robinson, they would have their star RB and the 8th overall pick in the 2023 draft. Now, going back to the previous question, Would you have taken Darnell Mooney 8th overall? Or would you have taken Jalen Carter? Peter Skoronski? Calijah Kancey? This is effectively the question with Ashton Jeanty. Why are you even considering taking a player with the value of a third WR that early in the draft? Think about the dumb teams who do that stuff:

Atlanta with Bijan Robinson. Has Bijan improved Atlanta’s future in any discernible way? They had a dominant run game before he got there. They’re about the same team before he was draft, plus Kirk Cousins. And now he’s already 2 years into his 8 year shelf life. Would they be viewed as a better team right now if Jalen Carter was on their DLine? Peter Skoronski was on their Oline? Of course they would be. A better team now and a better future.

Cleveland with Trent Richardson. A complete bust, but he was also viewed as the next great NFL RB. How would Cleveland’s future change at all had he been a hit? What changes? They win an extra game here or there from big runs maybe, but otherwise they’re exactly the same team, he washes out in 2020 due to RB age, and nothing else changes.

Detroit with Jahmyr Gibbs. He’s playing well for them. But had they not drafted him and just kept 2023 pro bowler and 1000 yard rusher Deandre Swift, let’s say he can produce 75% of what Gibbs can. Combined with David Montgomery and that Oline, that is still a dominant, top 5 rushing attack. But now you also have the 12th overall 2023 draft draft pick back. If you took today’s Detroit Lions, put Deandre Swift and Will McDonald (who was the next DE taken and has 8 sacks so far this year) on that team, they’re better. They’re better now, and they have an extremely bright future with McDonald and Hutchinson terrorizing offenses for the next decade, instead of Gibbs wearing down by 2027-2028.

New York Giants with Saquon Barkley. How did Saquon Barkley improve the NYG better than Josh Allen would have? They took Daniel Jones the very next draft so it’s not as if they weren’t in position to take a QB. But let’s keep this a Dallas parallel and stick to lineman. The next Dlineman taken was Bradley Chubb. The next Olineman taken was Quenton Nelson. Vita Vea went 12th. Daron Payne went 13th. Kolton Miller went 15. Frank Ragnow went 20. Teams in the teens were out drafting the team that drafted 2nd because they made the worst value mistake a team can make.

And now, Dallas Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliot. Over the last 8 years, what has the Dallas Cowboys accomplished that wouldn’t have been possible without Zeke? 1st seed in 2016? You won the 1st seed by 2 games and had the tie breaker on the #2 seed. You very plausibly still get it with a lesser RB picked up in FA. Zeke had pro bowl years after that, but 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020…. 1 playoff season there, and it was the only season he averaged over 4.5 ypc. He became more a workhorse than a star back. A guy you run into the ground more than a guy who runs the defense into the ground. And he’s probably the best result on this list for the drafting team. But are you in a better place right now than if you had taken the next lineman off the board… franchise LT Ronnie Stanley and moved him to RT? You would have had the best tackle combo in the nfl until Tyron left, and you’d still have him in his prime today. Or maybe you felt your line was fine and went for the next D lineman. Deforest Buckner is a DT with 65 career sacks, and playing well again this year. You would have been better on his rookie contract, better today, and way better for the future. You don’t need to burn a pick on Mazi if you have Buckner. The next guy is Sheldon Rankins, another DT… but he can play 3-tech or NT. A vary valuable player. Unlike Zeke, he’s not a star, but he’s still making 12m$ a season 8 years after his draft because he’s an above average player at an incredibly important platoon.

Jeanty would be out of the league in 8 years, and you’d be fortunate to get more than a few dominant seasons out of him. Giants got 1 out of Saquon. Dallas got 3 out of Zeke and that was a huge success. Lions may never get one out of Gibbs if they keep using him in a committee. Bijan may finish with around 1200 yards this year… is that a dominant season with a 17 game schedule? 8th overall dominant?

There is no value in taking a running back anywhere earlier than… 25th? The monetary value is terrible, the return on investment is terrible, the team improvement is limited, and the lifespan is the worst in professional sports. Bad front offices do this. Cleveland, NYG, Minnesota with AP (HoFer… they had the exact same problems with him that they did without, aside from the Favre year). Lions are looking great right now, but that pick does nothing to help their longevity.


QB.

Oline.

Dline.

WR if you have those covered

CB if you have those covered

LB if you run a 3-4

——————————

RB or TE is a complete waste of draft value before the second round. Why would you take a guy who has the monetary value of a #3 WR with a draft pick people are using on their franchise QBs? Their franchise LT’s? Their 15 year Dlineman? A guy who is wholly dependent on the quality of the Oline to even function properly? It’s actually crazy.

Here is a hypothetical:

Let’s say the Cowboys were going to draft a WR in the top 10. You are given clairvoyant vision of what this player will become. Jalen Tolbert eventually evolves into CeeDee’s #2, and this WR will never be better than the #3 WR on the team. Was that a wise choice for a top 10 draft pick? What about top 20? What about first round?

In 2024, Darnell Mooney signed a 3y, 39m$ contract to be the #3 WR for the Atlanta Falcons. 13m$ a year. Good number 2’s like Waddle and Smith and Deebo are going for 20-25m$, so a #3 who is also a starter is about right at 13m$.

Saquon Barkley signed for 13.5m$ AAV. Josh Jacobs signed for 12m$ AAV. Derrick Henry signed for 9m$ AAV. Joe Mixon signed for 8.5m$ AAV. Aaron Jones signed for 7m$ AAV. Little bit of backtracking here, but Had the Falcons simply signed one of these guys instead of Mooney and not taken Bijan Robinson, they would have their star RB and the 8th overall pick in the 2023 draft. Now, going back to the previous question, Would you have taken Darnell Mooney 8th overall? Or would you have taken Jalen Carter? Peter Skoronski? Calijah Kancey? This is effectively the question with Ashton Jeanty. Why are you even considering taking a player with the value of a third WR that early in the draft? Think about the dumb teams who do that stuff:

Atlanta with Bijan Robinson. Has Bijan improved Atlanta’s future in any discernible way? They had a dominant run game before he got there. They’re about the same team before he was draft, plus Kirk Cousins. And now he’s already 2 years into his 8 year shelf life. Would they be viewed as a better team right now if Jalen Carter was on their DLine? Peter Skoronski was on their Oline? Of course they would be. A better team now and a better future.

Cleveland with Trent Richardson. A complete bust, but he was also viewed as the next great NFL RB. How would Cleveland’s future change at all had he been a hit? What changes? They win an extra game here or there from big runs maybe, but otherwise they’re exactly the same team, he washes out in 2020 due to RB age, and nothing else changes.

Detroit with Jahmyr Gibbs. He’s playing well for them. But had they not drafted him and just kept 2023 pro bowler and 1000 yard rusher Deandre Swift, let’s say he can produce 75% of what Gibbs can. Combined with David Montgomery and that Oline, that is still a dominant, top 5 rushing attack. But now you also have the 12th overall 2023 draft draft pick back. If you took today’s Detroit Lions, put Deandre Swift and Will McDonald (who was the next DE taken and has 8 sacks so far this year) on that team, they’re better. They’re better now, and they have an extremely bright future with McDonald and Hutchinson terrorizing offenses for the next decade, instead of Gibbs wearing down by 2027-2028.

New York Giants with Saquon Barkley. How did Saquon Barkley improve the NYG better than Josh Allen would have? They took Daniel Jones the very next draft so it’s not as if they weren’t in position to take a QB. But let’s keep this a Dallas parallel and stick to lineman. The next Dlineman taken was Bradley Chubb. The next Olineman taken was Quenton Nelson. Vita Vea went 12th. Daron Payne went 13th. Kolton Miller went 15. Frank Ragnow went 20. Teams in the teens were out drafting the team that drafted 2nd because they made the worst value mistake a team can make.

And now, Dallas Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliot. Over the last 8 years, what has the Dallas Cowboys accomplished that wouldn’t have been possible without Zeke? 1st seed in 2016? You won the 1st seed by 2 games and had the tie breaker on the #2 seed. You very plausibly still get it with a lesser RB picked up in FA. Zeke had pro bowl years after that, but 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020…. 1 playoff season there, and it was the only season he averaged over 4.5 ypc. He became more a workhorse than a star back. A guy you run into the ground more than a guy who runs the defense into the ground. And he’s probably the best result on this list for the drafting team. But are you in a better place right now than if you had taken the next lineman off the board… franchise LT Ronnie Stanley and moved him to RT? You would have had the best tackle combo in the nfl until Tyron left, and you’d still have him in his prime today. Or maybe you felt your line was fine and went for the next D lineman. Deforest Buckner is a DT with 65 career sacks, and playing well again this year. You would have been better on his rookie contract, better today, and way better for the future. You don’t need to burn a pick on Mazi if you have Buckner. The next guy is Sheldon Rankins, another DT… but he can play 3-tech or NT. A vary valuable player. Unlike Zeke, he’s not a star, but he’s still making 12m$ a season 8 years after his draft because he’s an above average player at an incredibly important platoon.

Jeanty would be out of the league in 8 years, and you’d be fortunate to get more than a few dominant seasons out of him. Giants got 1 out of Saquon. Dallas got 3 out of Zeke and that was a huge success. Lions may never get one out of Gibbs if they keep using him in a committee. Bijan may finish with around 1200 yards this year… is that a dominant season with a 17 game schedule? 8th overall dominant?

There is no value in taking a running back anywhere earlier than… 25th? The monetary value is terrible, the return on investment is terrible, the team improvement is limited, and the lifespan is the worst in professional sports. Bad front offices do this. Cleveland, NYG, Minnesota with AP (HoFer… they had the exact same problems with him that they did without, aside from the Favre year). Lions are looking great right now, but that pick does nothing to help their longevity.


QB.

Oline.

Dline.

WR if you have those covered

CB if you have those covered

LB if you run a 3-4

——————————

RB or TE is a complete waste of draft value before the second round. Why would you take a guy who has the monetary value of a #3 WR with a draft pick people are using on their franchise QBs? Their franchise LT’s? Their 15 year Dlineman? A guy who is wholly dependent on the quality of the Oline to even function properly? It’s actually crazy.

Go back and look at how many recent Super Bowl winners had 1,000 yard. Rushers. Pretty crazy actually. I think Blount with NE was the last one

 

[cnuball21]

Most fans understand this…roster building and positional value matters so much.

 

[JeffInDC]

TRENCHES FIRST!!!!!

 

[McKDaddy]

I wholeheartedly agree with your overall assessment. I disagree somewhat with Gibbs because for every generality there are exceptions. But that is a different discussion.

I personally think the OL can be ok without the draft. So, for me, the #1 target should be DL. Particularly interior if available. Then any other defensive positions particularly that strengthen the middle of your D. After that, WR.

Of course this all depends on relative talent. I'm not suggesting passing on a really good WR for a "body" at DT. But I would also trade down if the WR isn't exceptional & still target DL (with multiple picks if necessary). More darts theory. I can find WR's & RB's later in the draft and certainly in FA.

They are the positions you can add when you have a roster that is already otherwise competitive.

 

[baltcowboy]

Jeanty teamed up with CeeDee makes the Cowboys offense lethal. The kid can have the same effect that CMC has for the 49ers and Saquon has for the Eagles. The Cowboys have much better talent than those other examples you used. If Garrett decided to let Zeke run against Green Bay in the playoff game I think that history would have looked on the Zeke pick differently. I am for picking the best player and Jeanty as of right now is a top 5 player in this draft.

 

[RS12]

Jeanty combine numbers will either make him a top 10 pick or make him available in the 20s. I got a feeling he times real well because to the naked eye he looks football fast.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

This analysis has a huge blind spot and I don’t advocate for taking a RB Top 10, but for the sake of argument:

The value of taking a RB high is that no other position is easier to transition into and provide immediate returns than RB.

You get instant returns on a relative bargain of an AAV. Let’s say the middle of the first round (pick #16). Last year, pick #16 (Byron Murphy) signed a rookie contract worth $16.1M/4-years, for an AAV of ~$4M.

That’s nothing; an absolute steal.

Now imagine getting a game changing RB on a rookie deal for 3-4 years at that value?

That just makes dollars and sense as they say.

The counter to that is you can get that value much later. Jonathan Taylor was a second round pick. Derrick Henry was a second round pick. Josh Jacobs was taken at 24. Alvin Kamara was a third round pick. Joe Mixon was a second round pick. Aaron Jones was a fifth round pick. Tony Pollard was a 4th round pick. Deandre Swift was a second round pick. Ekeler was undrafted. Chase Brown round 5. Nick Chubb second round. That’s the vast majority of the top 15 running backs. Tight End is the same story.

Now do a more valuable position: defensive tackle. Aaron Donald 13th overall. Deforest Buckner 7th. Jalen Carter 9th overall. Dexter Lawrence 17th. Jeffrey Simmons 19th. Ndamukong Suh 2nd. Fletcher Cox 12th. Derrick Brown 7th. Ed Oliver 9th. Quinnen Williams 3rd overall. Leonard Williams 6th. Christian Wilkins 13th. Cameron Heyward 31st. Chris Jones 37th, Christian Barmore 38th. Nearly every great DT of the past 10 years was a top 40 pick, and most were top 20.

Positional value is the most important aspect with premium picks. No one takes kickers that high, no one takes punters that high. No one but draft geniuses Vegas and Atlanta would take a TE that high. And no one should be taking RB’s that high. A team with a phenomenal running back is going to lose to a team with better lines every time.

You brought up how cheap his position is, but that’s more of a point to take a DT instead. Getting a 30m$ player on a rookie deal heavily outweighs getting a 10-15m$ player on a rookie deal. Furthermore, what is the value in keeping that player? Ask yourself this: Aaron Donald, when in his career did Dallas ever have the opportunity to acquire him? Like a serious opportunity. Now do Fletcher Cox. Now do Quinnen Williams or Dexter Lawrence or project the next time you may pry Jalen Carter from Philly or Jeffrey Simmons from Tennessee. These guys are rarely ever anvailablr other than at the top of the draft. Bidding war for Ndamukong Suh when he went to Miami for a record deal, bidding war for Christian Wilkins when he went to Las Vegas. Thats about it. Now do the same with the top RBs. Could you have ever gotten Saquon if you really wanted him? Derrick Henry? Joe Mixon? Josh Jacobs? CMC? Aaron Jones? Austin Ekeler? Deandre Swift?

If you don’t draft DT high, you’ll never fix DT. But you could go out and get a strong run game any time you want.

More valuable position, Better rookie contract ROI, rarer talent, and substantially longer tenure

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Go back and look at how many recent Super Bowl winners had 1,000 yard. Rushers. Pretty crazy actually. I think Blount with NE was the last one

Now go back and look at how many had all-pro DT’s

Chris Jones

Chris Jones

Aaron Donald

Vita Vea

Chris Jones

Fletcher Cox

Vince Wilfork


Pretty much every year since Blount

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Jeanty teamed up with CeeDee makes the Cowboys offense lethal. The kid can have the same effect that CMC has for the 49ers and Saquon has for the Eagles. The Cowboys have much better talent than those other examples you used. If Garrett decided to let Zeke run against Green Bay in the playoff game I think that history would have looked on the Zeke pick differently. I am for picking the best player and Jeanty as of right now is a top 5 player in this draft.

The issue is Saquon Barkley. Do you genuinely believe your line is closer to Philly’s or NYG’s? What about when Zack leaves? What if you cut Steele? What if Guyton doesn’t evolve year 2? So many maybes there; the two examples you list were guys who went to lesser situations and then got moved to SF and Philly who were investing in lines. Zeke went to a team we already knew had a top 3 line in football, this just isn’t that situation.

 

[baltcowboy]

The issue is Saquon Barkley. Do you genuinely believe your line is closer to Philly’s or NYG’s? What about when Zack leaves? What if you cut Steele? What if Guyton doesn’t evolve year 2? So many maybes there; the two examples you list were guys who went to lesser situations and then got moved to SF and Philly who were investing in lines. Zeke went to a team we already knew had a top 3 line in football, this just isn’t that situation.

Going into the offseason the Cowboys where a better team then the Eagles. So yeah a Jeanty type player would make our line look better than it is. Dak is a better quarterback than Hurts so Jeanty would not be keyed on. The Cowboys offensive line was hot garbage in the early 90s until Emmitt came along. One player in the draft can change things like Parsons did for the Cowboys in 2021.

 

[Cowboyny]

The issue is Saquon Barkley. Do you genuinely believe your line is closer to Philly’s or NYG’s? What about when Zack leaves? What if you cut Steele? What if Guyton doesn’t evolve year 2? So many maybes there; the two examples you list were guys who went to lesser situations and then got moved to SF and Philly who were investing in lines. Zeke went to a team we already knew had a top 3 line in football, this just isn’t that situation.

Argument against, if you have a strong OL or strong rushing scheme, drafting a high rb could pay huge dividends. We saw Zeke get drafted when we had an elite line and he lead us to the #1 seed with a rookie QB and a below average defense. Cleary, Cowboys do not have an elite OL or scheme.

The counter-argument Jeanty plays with a poor OL at Boise, he can make an average line look far more better then they actually are.

I am not opposed to taking a 1st rd rb if he is the best player on your board. They had Dalvin Cook rated higher then Taco and drafted for need.

What happens if he becomes the next Sanders, LT or Peterson, you would make the same mistake the Packers did when they passed on Barry?

 

[Landryhat73]

The bust factor for DTs is relatively low as well. It seems the highly rated players usually perform well in the league.

 

[rambo2]

Here is a hypothetical:

Let’s say the Cowboys were going to draft a WR in the top 10. You are given clairvoyant vision of what this player will become. Jalen Tolbert eventually evolves into CeeDee’s #2, and this WR will never be better than the #3 WR on the team. Was that a wise choice for a top 10 draft pick? What about top 20? What about first round?

In 2024, Darnell Mooney signed a 3y, 39m$ contract to be the #3 WR for the Atlanta Falcons. 13m$ a year. Good number 2’s like Waddle and Smith and Deebo are going for 20-25m$, so a #3 who is also a starter is about right at 13m$.

Saquon Barkley signed for 13.5m$ AAV. Josh Jacobs signed for 12m$ AAV. Derrick Henry signed for 9m$ AAV. Joe Mixon signed for 8.5m$ AAV. Aaron Jones signed for 7m$ AAV. Little bit of backtracking here, but Had the Falcons simply signed one of these guys instead of Mooney and not taken Bijan Robinson, they would have their star RB and the 8th overall pick in the 2023 draft. Now, going back to the previous question, Would you have taken Darnell Mooney 8th overall? Or would you have taken Jalen Carter? Peter Skoronski? Calijah Kancey? This is effectively the question with Ashton Jeanty. Why are you even considering taking a player with the value of a third WR that early in the draft? Think about the dumb teams who do that stuff:

Atlanta with Bijan Robinson. Has Bijan improved Atlanta’s future in any discernible way? They had a dominant run game before he got there. They’re about the same team before he was draft, plus Kirk Cousins. And now he’s already 2 years into his 8 year shelf life. Would they be viewed as a better team right now if Jalen Carter was on their DLine? Peter Skoronski was on their Oline? Of course they would be. A better team now and a better future.

Cleveland with Trent Richardson. A complete bust, but he was also viewed as the next great NFL RB. How would Cleveland’s future change at all had he been a hit? What changes? They win an extra game here or there from big runs maybe, but otherwise they’re exactly the same team, he washes out in 2020 due to RB age, and nothing else changes.

Detroit with Jahmyr Gibbs. He’s playing well for them. But had they not drafted him and just kept 2023 pro bowler and 1000 yard rusher Deandre Swift, let’s say he can produce 75% of what Gibbs can. Combined with David Montgomery and that Oline, that is still a dominant, top 5 rushing attack. But now you also have the 12th overall 2023 draft draft pick back. If you took today’s Detroit Lions, put Deandre Swift and Will McDonald (who was the next DE taken and has 8 sacks so far this year) on that team, they’re better. They’re better now, and they have an extremely bright future with McDonald and Hutchinson terrorizing offenses for the next decade, instead of Gibbs wearing down by 2027-2028.

New York Giants with Saquon Barkley. How did Saquon Barkley improve the NYG better than Josh Allen would have? They took Daniel Jones the very next draft so it’s not as if they weren’t in position to take a QB. But let’s keep this a Dallas parallel and stick to lineman. The next Dlineman taken was Bradley Chubb. The next Olineman taken was Quenton Nelson. Vita Vea went 12th. Daron Payne went 13th. Kolton Miller went 15. Frank Ragnow went 20. Teams in the teens were out drafting the team that drafted 2nd because they made the worst value mistake a team can make.

And now, Dallas Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliot. Over the last 8 years, what has the Dallas Cowboys accomplished that wouldn’t have been possible without Zeke? 1st seed in 2016? You won the 1st seed by 2 games and had the tie breaker on the #2 seed. You very plausibly still get it with a lesser RB picked up in FA. Zeke had pro bowl years after that, but 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020…. 1 playoff season there, and it was the only season he averaged over 4.5 ypc. He became more a workhorse than a star back. A guy you run into the ground more than a guy who runs the defense into the ground. And he’s probably the best result on this list for the drafting team. But are you in a better place right now than if you had taken the next lineman off the board… franchise LT Ronnie Stanley and moved him to RT? You would have had the best tackle combo in the nfl until Tyron left, and you’d still have him in his prime today. Or maybe you felt your line was fine and went for the next D lineman. Deforest Buckner is a DT with 65 career sacks, and playing well again this year. You would have been better on his rookie contract, better today, and way better for the future. You don’t need to burn a pick on Mazi if you have Buckner. The next guy is Sheldon Rankins, another DT… but he can play 3-tech or NT. A vary valuable player. Unlike Zeke, he’s not a star, but he’s still making 12m$ a season 8 years after his draft because he’s an above average player at an incredibly important platoon.

Jeanty would be out of the league in 8 years, and you’d be fortunate to get more than a few dominant seasons out of him. Giants got 1 out of Saquon. Dallas got 3 out of Zeke and that was a huge success. Lions may never get one out of Gibbs if they keep using him in a committee. Bijan may finish with around 1200 yards this year… is that a dominant season with a 17 game schedule? 8th overall dominant?

There is no value in taking a running back anywhere earlier than… 25th? The monetary value is terrible, the return on investment is terrible, the team improvement is limited, and the lifespan is the worst in professional sports. Bad front offices do this. Cleveland, NYG, Minnesota with AP (HoFer… they had the exact same problems with him that they did without, aside from the Favre year). Lions are looking great right now, but that pick does nothing to help their longevity.


QB.

Oline.

Dline.

WR if you have those covered

CB if you have those covered

LB if you run a 3-4

——————————

RB or TE is a complete waste of draft value before the second round. Why would you take a guy who has the monetary value of a #3 WR with a draft pick people are using on their franchise QBs? Their franchise LT’s? Their 15 year Dlineman? A guy who is wholly dependent on the quality of the Oline to even function properly? It’s actually crazy.

Eagles with Barkley. I think the deal is that Jeanty could very well be the bpa when Dallas is on the board.