Examining the Pass Defense

[Bay10]

I expected so much more from Lawerance and Crawford this year. Crawford got that DeMarco money, Damn shame.

 

[cowboys2233]

- Nice to prevent TD passes, but not really a big thing when it comes to creating an elite pass defense.

Don't know what to make of this bullet point. This makes no sense - any team defense considered would have to rank very highly in the "points against" category. As such, an elite pass defense would have to rank very highly when it comes to preventing TDs, given that is the way in which teams score the majority of their points. Does your data not show an extremely strong correlation between highly ranked pass defenses and a low number of passing TDs against?

 

[big dog cowboy]

Get Romo and Dez on the field and the offense will be greatly improved. That will make a big impact on our defense.

 

[xwalker]

This has been proven to be a myth. Few years back, we were like 29th in rush attempts and 20 something in rush offense yet Romo was top 3 QB when passing from play action.

You can be a lousy running team that doesn't run much yet still be effective a play action team.

There was a blog article after 2013 that said Romo was a top rank QB in play action. I'll have to assume that they were correct because I don't have the play action stats.

The problem with that is that while they didn't have a lot of rushing attempts, they were highly ranked in terms of rushing effectiveness. In 2013 they ranked 31st in rushing attempts but 8th in yards per carry. If you're 8th in ypc, then you have a very good ability to run, they just were not running a high percentage of the time, in part because Romo liked to audible from run to pass. Defenses are still going to respect the running game of a team that is 8th in ypc even if they don't run as often as other teams.

 

[jnday]

As many of you may already know, nearly 80% of the games in the NFL are dictated by who wins the passing game battle. It's not about throwing up gaudy yardage in the passing game, it's about effectiveness and efficiency of the passing game.

Obviously, the Cowboys have not had much of an issue with throwing the ball on offense when Romo is the starter. However, the Cowboys continually struggle to defend the pass and that prevents the team from reaching the promise land.

For me, I wanted to look more into what exactly constitutes an elite pass defense. I'm trying to put aside theory as well as overly simplistic analysis like 'a lower QB rating.' I wanted to look more precisely as to what are the common threads of an elite pass defense.

First, I defined an elite pass defense as any team that ranked in the top-4 in Football Outsiders' Pass Defense ranking. This considered various measurements along with adjusting it for strength of schedule.

I then looked at a bunch of various statistics and put them in a table. Here's a link to that table:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iFKLB5mubDG8DrnbU0Q06W209eYlORhfXeO0-CToJ-M/edit?usp=sharing

After compiling the data, I started to see one trend...there is a difference in the game from 2012 to present day versus 2011 and prior. So I split the data into 3 year ranges (2009-2011 and 2012-2014).

Here's some ideas I have seen:


- Since 2012, in order to become an elite pass defense you need to make more INT's. Prior to 2012, the league was slightly more about sacking the QB and keeping the completion % lower. I think this makes sense because it appears that QB's across the league are throwing shorter pass patterns and throwing the ball more often. So the completion % goes up, the sack rates go down and there are more opportunities to get an interception.


- If you're in a 4-3 a higher percentage of the interceptions on an elite pass defense will come from the corners than they would in a 3-4. I was a little surprised by this.


- It does appear that in post-2011, safety play and being able to make picks from the safety position is much more important. Even in the 4-3 where you may not get as many INT's from your safeties as you would in a 3-4...it is pretty apparent that your safeties had better be good enough in coverage and that puts the corners in a better position to make plays.


- If you look at the defensive rankings of the elite pass defenses against the #1 WR, #2 WR, #3 WR, TE and RB....the trend now (post-2011) is that you better be in the top-9 in defending the #1 WR and at least 2 of the 3 (#3 WR, TE or RB).

My thinking on this is that the #1 WR is too dangerous of a threat to not be able to defend and not being able to defend the #3 WR or TE or RB allows the QB to have too easy of a time making shorter, but productive throws.


- It's nice to defend the run, but it's really not that critical in defending the pass.


- Being able to cause fumbles has no real bearing on pass defense. You have to make picks these days.


- Nice to prevent TD passes, but not really a big thing when it comes to creating an elite pass defense.


- Starting field position is starting to become much more relevant to the elite pass defenses. Perhaps this is a sign of tackling (poor special teams tackling could lead to worst starting field position) or perhaps this indicates a lack of depth (poor special teams due to lack of depth at the DB position). Perhaps this is due to it becoming very difficult to stop today's offenses and essentially you need to get INT's and you need more opportunities to get INT's.



For the Cowboys, we are pretty much the opposite of these elite pass defenses and their characteristics. We only have 2 interceptions all year long and 1 of those was from Sean Lee (the other from Wilcox). Last season the Cowboys only had 4 interceptions from their CB's. They did have 5 interceptions from Wilcox and Church. It appears that the number you're looking for from your safeties is at least 6 and it's usually better to have them split evenly because it's a sign that both guys are threats in the passing game.


This year we are 27th against #1 WR, 9th against #2 WR, 32nd against #3 WR, 5th against TE's and 24th against RB's.

Last season we were 14th against #1 WR, 29th against #2 WR, 3rd against #3 WR, 11th against TE and 12th against the RB's.


So, looking at that we have a major drop-off in defending #1 WR's and we improved against the #2 WR's. But, those can work together because if your #1 WR is working well, then there's little reason to throw to the #2 WR and vice versa. The Cowboys essentially improved defending the #2 WR which does not greatly reflect an elite pass defense.

I think it's pretty obvious we miss Scandrick in that regard as well as when we see that the defense is the worst in the league in defending the #3 WR (or 'other WR').

It's nice to see the team defend the TE better. To me, this points to Wilcox not being the problem. He was often covering the TE's last season and did a solid job (11th). This season they've given B. Jones more responsibility while Wilcox is the #2 in command and they are now ranked 5th in defending the TE's.

The RB's are often the linebacker and SS responsibility. The team has been without Ro. McClain and he did have some TE responsibility last year. Of course, the gaffe against Spiller in the Saints game probably hurt the defense's ranking against the RB tremendously.


To me, this will be an interesting game to watch if Church is indeed out. I would assume that would move Jones to FS and Wilcox to SS. I think they are far more capable interception makers of the ball with far more range and that may help the corners quite a bit. And with McClain getting his sea legs back, perhaps the defense will start to defend the RB's better.






YR

Nice post. I think the pass rush is going to keep improving since more talent has been added and I have a good feeling about the direction that the Dline is going. With the exception of Jones, I think the DBs need many upgrades. As a unit, it seems like they gave the worst hands of any unit in the league. I bet that a simple game if pitch and catch is a big struggle for this group. Sean Lee has better instincts and hands than all of the DBs combined.

 

[jnday]

As many of you may already know, nearly 80% of the games in the NFL are dictated by who wins the passing game battle. It's not about throwing up gaudy yardage in the passing game, it's about effectiveness and efficiency of the passing game.

Obviously, the Cowboys have not had much of an issue with throwing the ball on offense when Romo is the starter. However, the Cowboys continually struggle to defend the pass and that prevents the team from reaching the promise land.

For me, I wanted to look more into what exactly constitutes an elite pass defense. I'm trying to put aside theory as well as overly simplistic analysis like 'a lower QB rating.' I wanted to look more precisely as to what are the common threads of an elite pass defense.

First, I defined an elite pass defense as any team that ranked in the top-4 in Football Outsiders' Pass Defense ranking. This considered various measurements along with adjusting it for strength of schedule.

I then looked at a bunch of various statistics and put them in a table. Here's a link to that table:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iFKLB5mubDG8DrnbU0Q06W209eYlORhfXeO0-CToJ-M/edit?usp=sharing

After compiling the data, I started to see one trend...there is a difference in the game from 2012 to present day versus 2011 and prior. So I split the data into 3 year ranges (2009-2011 and 2012-2014).

Here's some ideas I have seen:


- Since 2012, in order to become an elite pass defense you need to make more INT's. Prior to 2012, the league was slightly more about sacking the QB and keeping the completion % lower. I think this makes sense because it appears that QB's across the league are throwing shorter pass patterns and throwing the ball more often. So the completion % goes up, the sack rates go down and there are more opportunities to get an interception.


- If you're in a 4-3 a higher percentage of the interceptions on an elite pass defense will come from the corners than they would in a 3-4. I was a little surprised by this.


- It does appear that in post-2011, safety play and being able to make picks from the safety position is much more important. Even in the 4-3 where you may not get as many INT's from your safeties as you would in a 3-4...it is pretty apparent that your safeties had better be good enough in coverage and that puts the corners in a better position to make plays.


- If you look at the defensive rankings of the elite pass defenses against the #1 WR, #2 WR, #3 WR, TE and RB....the trend now (post-2011) is that you better be in the top-9 in defending the #1 WR and at least 2 of the 3 (#3 WR, TE or RB).

My thinking on this is that the #1 WR is too dangerous of a threat to not be able to defend and not being able to defend the #3 WR or TE or RB allows the QB to have too easy of a time making shorter, but productive throws.


- It's nice to defend the run, but it's really not that critical in defending the pass.


- Being able to cause fumbles has no real bearing on pass defense. You have to make picks these days.


- Nice to prevent TD passes, but not really a big thing when it comes to creating an elite pass defense.


- Starting field position is starting to become much more relevant to the elite pass defenses. Perhaps this is a sign of tackling (poor special teams tackling could lead to worst starting field position) or perhaps this indicates a lack of depth (poor special teams due to lack of depth at the DB position). Perhaps this is due to it becoming very difficult to stop today's offenses and essentially you need to get INT's and you need more opportunities to get INT's.



For the Cowboys, we are pretty much the opposite of these elite pass defenses and their characteristics. We only have 2 interceptions all year long and 1 of those was from Sean Lee (the other from Wilcox). Last season the Cowboys only had 4 interceptions from their CB's. They did have 5 interceptions from Wilcox and Church. It appears that the number you're looking for from your safeties is at least 6 and it's usually better to have them split evenly because it's a sign that both guys are threats in the passing game.


This year we are 27th against #1 WR, 9th against #2 WR, 32nd against #3 WR, 5th against TE's and 24th against RB's.

Last season we were 14th against #1 WR, 29th against #2 WR, 3rd against #3 WR, 11th against TE and 12th against the RB's.


So, looking at that we have a major drop-off in defending #1 WR's and we improved against the #2 WR's. But, those can work together because if your #1 WR is working well, then there's little reason to throw to the #2 WR and vice versa. The Cowboys essentially improved defending the #2 WR which does not greatly reflect an elite pass defense.

I think it's pretty obvious we miss Scandrick in that regard as well as when we see that the defense is the worst in the league in defending the #3 WR (or 'other WR').

It's nice to see the team defend the TE better. To me, this points to Wilcox not being the problem. He was often covering the TE's last season and did a solid job (11th). This season they've given B. Jones more responsibility while Wilcox is the #2 in command and they are now ranked 5th in defending the TE's.

The RB's are often the linebacker and SS responsibility. The team has been without Ro. McClain and he did have some TE responsibility last year. Of course, the gaffe against Spiller in the Saints game probably hurt the defense's ranking against the RB tremendously.


To me, this will be an interesting game to watch if Church is indeed out. I would assume that would move Jones to FS and Wilcox to SS. I think they are far more capable interception makers of the ball with far more range and that may help the corners quite a bit. And with McClain getting his sea legs back, perhaps the defense will start to defend the RB's better.






YR

Nice post. I think the pass rush is going to keep improving since more talent has been added and I have a good feeling about the direction that the Dline is going. With the exception of Jones, I think the DBs need many upgrades. As a unit, it seems like they gave the worst hands of any unit in the league. I bet that a simple game if pitch and catch is a big struggle for this group. Sean Lee has better instincts and hands than all of the DBs combined.

 

[Zman5]

There was a blog article after 2013 that said Romo was a top rank QB in play action. I'll have to assume that they were correct because I don't have the play action stats.

The problem with that is that while they didn't have a lot of rushing attempts, they were highly ranked in terms of rushing effectiveness. In 2013 they ranked 31st in rushing attempts but 8th in yards per carry. If you're 8th in ypc, then you have a very good ability to run, they just were not running a high percentage of the time, in part because Romo liked to audible from run to pass. Defenses are still going to respect the running game of a team that is 8th in ypc even if they don't run as often as other teams.

The following article is what I was refering to where it states you don't need a effective run game to run play action succesffully. Article it refering to 2012 season.


http://www.dallascowboys.com/news/2013/07/02/rtn-winning-play-calling-illusion-offensive-balance


But doesn’t the run set up the pass?

Last year, I implored the Cowboys to run more play-action passes. The offense attempted way fewer play-action passes than any team in the league, but like most squads, they were really effective when using it. Romo actually recorded a 109.1 passer rating on play-action passes, compared to just 88.3 on straight dropbacks.

Each time I mentioned using play-action, I received e-mails, comments, and tweets telling me that play-action is useless without an efficient running game. And in all likelihood, that’s why the Cowboys didn’t show much play-action; if you can’t run, will defenders still really bite up on run fakes?

Actually, yes they will. Defenders tend to play situations as opposed to past efficiency. And if you think about it, that makes sense. Do you really believe that a linebacker cares (or even knows) that the Cowboys might be averaging only 4.0 YPC instead of the league average of 4.25 YPC? When he sees Romo show run-action on third-and-one, he’s going to fly up toward the line, regardless of the Cowboys’ past rushing efficiency.

That’s evident in the numbers, too. Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, and Tony Romo were all among the most effective play-action passers in the NFL last year. Every one played on a team that ranked near the bottom of the league in rushing efficiency.
As a whole, NFL quarterbacks don’t find more success on play-action passes if they have efficient running games. As Scott Kacsmar points out, “The strongest correlation is between play-action passing and all passes, which again goes back to the importance of the quarterback and overall passing game. The correlation of play-action passes to non-play-action passes is the weakest of them all, which speaks to how effective this type of play is regardless of how bad your quarterback or running game is.”

It’s fun to think that an effective running game can set up the passing game. But it doesn’t seem to be true.