Expectations for a 1st Round Rookie Corner

[Nation]

Football Outsiders has their 2012 almanac out (must buy for any hardcore football fan) and one thing I found interesting was their look at 1st Round Cornerbacks. They looked at two categories, Success Rate and Adjusted Yards Per Pass.

Success Rate is the percentage of time the opponent didn't have a successful play throwing at the corner. So an incomplete pass, interception, 3rd down completion that doesn't pick up a 1st down, etc.

• Last year Jenkins was our best corner in this category with a 56% success rate that was good for 26th in the league.
• Newman was our worst at 43% success rate that was "good" for 73rd in the league

Adjusted Yards Per Pass is their measure of yards gained on plays on which this defender was the listed target, adjusted for the quality of the receiver covered.

• Jenkins was again our best with a 7.2 YPA that was good for 35th.
• Newman was again our worst with a 10.0 YPA that was 76th.

Between 2005 and 2011, 26 cornerbacks were drafted in the first round. The best of those as a rookie was Joe Haden, who finished 14th and 13th respectively in the two stats. And he is a clear outlier of the group, with almost all of the players being better than 2011 Newman but not a whole even being on par with 2011 Jenkins. I think he will be a very good player for our team for many years, but in 2012 Claiborne could have a great season for a rookie and that may be no better than the guy he was drafted to replace.

 

[Cowboys&LakersFan]

Well I don't expect him to play like an All Pro corner off the bat. It'll certainly take some time, but eventually I think you'll see him play at a high level.

 

[Nation]

I think he'll be great in time, but that doesn't mean that he'll even be good in 2012.

Here's where some of the upper-echelon players came in for 2011:
Revis: 62%, 5.5
Grimes: 66%, 5.0
Samuel: 66%, 4.8
Ike Taylor: 61%, 5.4
Finnegan: 61%, 5.0

 

[JBS]

I think he'll be great in time, but that doesn't mean that he'll even be good in 2012.

Here's where some of the upper-echelon players came in for 2011:
Revis: 62%, 5.5
Grimes: 66%, 5.0
Samuel: 66%, 4.8
Ike Taylor: 61%, 5.4
Finnegan: 61%, 5.0

Carr?

 

[JBS]

Eagles are going to miss Asante big time.

Wow! Falcons got some corners

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Good post. He may not be all-world right off the bat.

 

[Tabascocat]

I suspect like Patrick Peterson. Start out a little confused and slow but get the feel for it more as the season progresses. He has not seen the game at this speed yet, will take some adjustments from him.

 

[JBS]

Good post. He may not be all-world right off the bat.

Those offensive ranks are based on points in your sig, correct?

Good thing we signed BC! Hopefully he helps

 

[Nation]

Carr?

55% and 6.2

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I would be interested to see what it was for top 10 picks. The 20th pick isn't in the same category as the 6th pick.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Carlos Rogers
Pacman Jones
Joe Haden
Patrick Peterson

Leodis Mckelvin was selected 11th

I think that is a better context for expectations.

 

[Nation]

I would be interested to see what it was for top 10 picks. The 20th pick isn't in the same category as the 6th pick.

Averages:

Picks 1-10: 51%, 7.4 AdjYd
Picks 11-20: 45%, 8.7 AdjYd
Picks 21-32: 52%, 7.3 AdjYd

 

[Hoofbite]

I'm not sure you can set expectations based on other players have done.

Highly picked corners go to garbage teams, traditionally.

Kind of like WRs. How can you set expectations for one player who is drafted to a team that has a good QB based on the production of another player who was drafted to a team that didn't have a QB?

Why look at teams that were overall pretty crappy to set expectations for a player who has some guys around him?

I think post is a pretty good example.

Averages:

Picks 1-10: 51%, 7.4 AdjYd
Picks 11-20: 45%, 8.7 AdjYd
Picks 21-32: 52%, 7.3 AdjYd

Were the guys picked in the 20s as good as the guys picked in in the top 10?

Doubtful anyone would buy that. The guys in the 20s though didn't have to be as good in order to put up numbers on par with the guys in the top 10 because they had other players around them carrying some of the load.

Another aspect I'd like to point to is that Claiborn doesn't have to be forced into any role right off the bat. Usually a team picking a CB in the top half of the round has some serious holes there. Dallas has Carr who is a good player and they have Jenkins who is a solid player. It's not like Dallas has to line Claiborn up across from the opponents #1 WR every week. If the other CBs matchup better, you might see Claiborn guarding someone else.

I don't think many teams taking a CB in the 1st round have had that luxury. Surely not in the top 10. Any team picking one that high likely stuck him out there and told him to sink or swim. If Morris has a rough start to a game, Dallas doesn't have to watch him sink that week, they can shift him over to another WR.


Lastly, I think Dallas is in a position to where he doesn't need to be outstanding from the get-go. There are plenty of players on the defense who can make plays and force decisions. Every little bit the pass rush helps out the DBs will likely be returned with every little bit that the DBs help out the pass rush.


I expect some stumbles along the way but I also expect him to be able to matchup with just about anyone in the NFL and stay with them when he makes the right decision. I think he has all the physical skills in the world but the mental aspect will likely be the part that gives him trouble at first, like most rookies.

 

[NorTex]

As long as Mo grabs half a dozen INTs or more, it's all good in my book.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Averages:

Picks 1-10: 51%, 7.4 AdjYd
Picks 11-20: 45%, 8.7 AdjYd
Picks 21-32: 52%, 7.3 AdjYd

That an interesting dynamic.

I give credence to Hoof's notion that later round draft pick are going to better overall teams and not under so much pressure. It also makes sense that the better talent at the top of the draft would do better. We were a middling team last year though.

i am trying to get away from the notion of expectations. It's been thrown around a lot concerning this team. I prefer to look at it as this giving me hope for his success.

 

[Nation]

I think it is a sample size issue as much as anything else from draft lot. Regardless I still expect Claiborne to be a great player, but I don't expect him to be that in 2012.

 

[gmoney112]

And guess who Joe Haden's DB coach was??


Jerome Henderson.


Yeahhhh buddy.

 

[Vinnie2u]

I just hope the kid Can turn around and make a play on the ball like he did in college.. Please keep Campo away from camp..

 

[ferrispata]

I think we will see flashes of brilliance followed by rookie mistakes. Which I am fine with. He could have a couple interception day and then he could have some screw-ups for sure. He will get there though. Can't wait for training camp and the season.

 

[Shinywalrus]

If we can get 90% of Haden's rookie season, I'd be pretty happy indeed.