Feb 25: 12 Mock Drafts__probabilites

[DFWJC]

I looked at 12 Mock Drafts.

There were 36 different players that went on or before pick 18.

Here are the probabilities that key players WILL be there at 18:

0%
Joeckel, Moore, Milliner, J Jones, S Lotuelei

8%
B Werner, E Fisher, C Warmack, D Jordan, B Mingo

17%
G Smith

33%
S Richardson, C Patterson

42%
L Johnson, K Vaccarro,

50%
E Ansah, X Rhodes

58%
S Floyd, J Hankins

67%
M Te'o, K Allen, J Cooper,

75%
A Oglestree, M Barkley,

83%
DJ Fluker, J Williams

92%
J Jenkins, Z Ertz, D Hopkins, E Lacy, M Glennon, J Banks, T Eifert, T Williams, J Hunter

100%
K Short, S Montgomery, D Jones, S Williams, T Austin, E Reid, S Trufont, K Minter, L Warford, etc



Note: if someone could fix the spelling in the title I'd appreciate it

 

[Shinywalrus]

Interesting!

I think that the probability of a fall by Moore, Warmack, Richardson or Vaccaro is probably higher than the mocks estimate. Lotulelei's new injury concerns, too, probably make that probability higher.

I'm less convinced on Ogletree or Floyd at those probability levels. Floyd's gone for sure, and Ogletree higher than that probability.

But again, very interesting!

 

[Future]

This could change quite a bit, depending on the health of Lotuleilei's heart

 

[RS12]

0%
Joeckel, Moore, Milliner, J Jones, S Lotuelei

Dont agree. I think he is falling and a good chance he is there.

 

[DFWJC]

Dont agree. I think he is falling and a good chance he is there.

Some of these mocks are precombine. I put a date on the thread b/c ina few weeks we know it will change.

All 12 Mocks had Demontre Moore in the top 13.
His average postion was 6th.

 

[xwalker]

I looked at 12 Mock Drafts.

There were 36 different players that went on or before pick 18.

Here are the probabilities that key players WILL be there at 18:

0%
Joeckel, Moore, Milliner, J Jones, S Lotuelei

8%
B Werner, E Fisher, C Warmack, D Jordan, B Mingo

17%
G Smith

33%
S Richardson, C Patterson

42%
L Johnson, K Vaccarro,

50%
E Ansah, X Rhodes

58%
S Floyd, J Hankins

67%
M Te'o, K Allen, J Cooper,

75%
A Oglestree, M Barkley,

83%
DJ Fluker, J Williams

92%
J Jenkins, Z Ertz, D Hopkins, E Lacy, M Glennon, J Banks, T Eifert, T Williams, J Hunter

100%
K Short, S Montgomery, D Jones, S Williams, T Austin, E Reid, S Trufont, K Minter, L Warford, etc
Note: if someone could fix the spelling in the title I'd appreciate it

Good work!

Who created the 12 mocks?

 

[DFWJC]

Good work!

Who created the 12 mocks?

1. Kiper
2. McShay
3. Rang
4. Brugler
5. Brooks
6. Brandt (he's odd at times...ex. no Cooper in the 1st rd)
7. Davis
8. Breerer
9. SB Nation
10. Drafttech
11. DraftScout
12. GBN