First Five and a Half vs Last Five and a Half

[percyhoward]

How many of Jones runs the first 5 were on first down and second in long?

What I have noticed is we are passing a lot on first down and setting up 2nd and short, and we have not ran on that down well...poor play calling, bad blocking, a lot of run blitzes...have all factored in.

2nd and less than 6
Jones 2.9 ypr
Barber 4.8 ypr

1st and 10
Jones 4.2 ypr
Barber 5.5 ypr

These are stats for the whole season. You may be right about us having more 2nd and shorts lately. I'd have to check each gamebook to find out. Anyway, Julius runs a lot better on 1st and 10 than on 2nd and short. With Barber, there isn't much difference.

As for us passing more on first down with Romo, we don't...Bledsoe threw on 47% of his 1st down plays. Romo throws on 46% of his.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

As a team, we aren't running as well with Romo as we were with Bledsoe. But it's only Julius whose average has gone down.

Yards per Rush
First 5 games
Jones 4.6
Barber 5.0

Last 5 games
Jones 3.6
Barber 5.1

Since Julius normally isn't in the game on 3rd down, us having fewer 3rd and long rushes wouldn't affect his stats.

Another theory: Barber gets more carries in the 2nd half than in the first, so if teams start out defending the run, then adjust and focus more on stopping the pass in the second half, it would be Barber who most benefitted.

Maybe?

Edit: Now that I've digested it, that may be exactly what ravidubey said.

Can it be that because Romo has been so successful passing on 3rd down that those stats are lower? Were we running more of 3rd down with Drew? curious

 

[theogt]

2nd and less than 6
Jones 2.9 ypr
Barber 4.8 ypr

1st and 10
Jones 4.2 ypr
Barber 5.5 ypr

These are stats for the whole season. You may be right about us having more 2nd and shorts lately. I'd have to check each gamebook to find out. Anyway, Julius runs a lot better on 1st and 10 than on 2nd and short. With Barber, there isn't much difference.

As for us passing more on first down with Romo, we don't...Bledsoe threw on 47% of his 1st down plays. Romo throws on 46% of his.

Well, the problem is these stats don't account for which half they're playing in. Barber's numbers go down significantly when comparing his first half numbers to his second half numbers.

 

[LaTunaNostra]

Owens
w/Romo....38 of 61 62% 509 13.4ypc 5td 30fd

Witten
w/Romo....26 of 37 70% 315 12.1ypc 1td 16fd

Glenn
w/Romo....19 of 28 68% 265 13.9ypc 3td 14fd

Crayton
w/Romo....18 of 22 82% 334 18.6ypc 2td 14fd

That is very very interesting.

 

[percyhoward]

Well, the problem is these stats don't account for which half they're playing in. Barber's numbers go down significantly when comparing his first half numbers to his second half numbers.

Which is what I think is probably the best explanation for the disparity between the two backs' per carry averages. Defenses concentrate more on stopping the run in the first half.

But then that doesn't explain why Barber still has big numbers late in the game, when (in three of the last five) we've had big leads, and the defense knew we were gonna run. This theory also doesn't line up very well with Romo's numbers, which are better in the 2nd half.

Julius may just be worn out.

 

[percyhoward]

Can it be that because Romo has been so successful passing on 3rd down that those stats are lower? Were we running more of 3rd down with Drew? curious

But notice that the only numbers that are lower are JJ's, and on 3rd downs, he's just a spectator.

 

[LowTech]

Excellent information............unbelieveable comparison. Please Tony, don't let this dream ever end.

The first thing I thought of when I saw the decline in our rushing numbers were that teams are playing the run and trying to make Romo beat them...which he is doing. I think we will see our rushing game pick back up now that teams see that idea is not going to work.

 

[LeonDixson]

As a team, we aren't running as well with Romo as we were with Bledsoe. But it's only Julius whose average has gone down.

Yards per Rush
First 5 games
Jones 4.6
Barber 5.0

Last 5 games
Jones 3.6
Barber 5.1

Since Julius normally isn't in the game on 3rd down, us having fewer 3rd and long rushes wouldn't affect his stats.

Another theory: Barber gets more carries in the 2nd half than in the first, so if teams start out defending the run, then adjust and focus more on stopping the pass in the second half, it would be Barber who most benefitted.

Maybe?

Edit: Now that I've digested it, that may be exactly what ravidubey said.

The second half is also when the opposing defense starts to get worn down. That combined with what you and Ravi said accounts for a lot of the difference in the YPA between the two, IMHO.

 

[blindzebra]

2nd and less than 6
Jones 2.9 ypr
Barber 4.8 ypr

1st and 10
Jones 4.2 ypr
Barber 5.5 ypr

These are stats for the whole season. You may be right about us having more 2nd and shorts lately. I'd have to check each gamebook to find out. Anyway, Julius runs a lot better on 1st and 10 than on 2nd and short. With Barber, there isn't much difference.

As for us passing more on first down with Romo, we don't...Bledsoe threw on 47% of his 1st down plays. Romo throws on 46% of his.

Yes, but how many of Bledsoe's first down throws resulted in 2nd and short versus Romo's.

I may be wrong, but I see a lot more second and short with runs getting blown up in the backfield now, then I remember earlier in the season.

 

[percyhoward]

Yes, but how many of Bledsoe's first down throws resulted in 2nd and short versus Romo's.

I may be wrong, but I see a lot more second and short with runs getting blown up in the backfield now, then I remember earlier in the season.

I suppose you can always go to the play-by-play and start counting. Still you have to consider that Barber's numbers aren't affected by this.

 

[StanleySpadowski]

I'd guess without looking up the numbers that ypc and ypg are down slightly but attempts are up with Romo because Dallas has been ahead more.

Teams are loading up to stop the run when they know that Dallas is just trying to kill the clock.

But the major difference is the quality of the rush defenses faced. Houston, Philadelphia and Tennessee are all in the bottom 1/3 of the league in yards per attempt allowed, all allowing 4.2, 4.4, 4.5 respectively.

Jacksonville's solid and Washington's a wash because it was on both "halves".


The second half had Carolina at 3.9, Tampa at 4.0, Arizona at 4.2 and Indianapolis at 4.9.


Slightly better against the run than the first half with the exception of Indianapolis who sold out to shut down 1/2 of the Cowboys offense leaving the air game exposed.

 

[percyhoward]

The second half is also when the opposing defense starts to get worn down. That combined with what you and Ravi said accounts for a lot of the difference in the YPA between the two, IMHO.

Problem there is that Julius' worst quarter is the fourth, so tired defenses aren't helping him like they're supposedly helping the other RB.

 

[percyhoward]

I'd guess without looking up the numbers that ypc and ypg are down slightly but attempts are up with Romo because Dallas has been ahead more.

Teams are loading up to stop the run when they know that Dallas is just trying to kill the clock.

I'll look up the rankings of each rush defense also..

Nope, I thought of that too.

Average ranking of opposing run defenses in the first 5 games was 18th.

For the last five games it's 19th.

 

[StanleySpadowski]

Nope, I thought of that too.

Average ranking of opposing run defenses in the first 5 games was 18th.

For the last five games it's 19th.

I'm a much bigger proponent of yards per attempt than yards per game when ranking defenses. The per game averages reflect too much on a team's offense or lack thereof.

 

[sacowboysfan513]

The "w/Romo" ranking is where Dallas would rank if the numbers with Romo were doubled to include the whole season. "Combined" is the Cowboys' actual current league ranking.

League Rankings...w/Bledsoe w/Romo Combined
Total yards/Game.........6th....1st....4th
Passing Yards/Game....16th....2nd....6th
Avg. Gain/Pass Play.....19th....1st....3rd
Pct. Had Intercepted..28th...19th...24th
Pct. QB Sacks Allowed 18th...13th...17th
Rushing Yards/Game......3rd....9th....5th
Avg. Gain/Rush............8th...26th...16th
First Downs/Game.........5th....1st....2nd
Avg. Gain/Off. Play......12th....1st....6th
3rd Down Efficiency......3rd....2nd....2nd
Points/Game................4th....4th....2nd
Time of Possession........3rd....1st....1st
Turnover Margin.........13th....5th....5th

According to the rushing stats, its obvious that Bledsoe knew how to hand the ball off much more effectively than Romo.

 

[JD_KaPow]

When I looked over the stats in the OP, the first thing I said was, "Bledsoe only lost one fumble?"

Sure enough, he did, and the Cowboys have only lost 4 fumbles on the season, tied with San Diego and Baltimore for fewest in the NFL. (San Diego's listed with only 3 at ESPN, but I saw four looking through the box scores).

In fact, the Cowboys have only put the ball on the ground 8 times all season, with half of them recovered by each team (about what you'd expect). Those 8 fumbles are fewer than the lost fumbles for 18 other teams, and are less than half the league average of lost fumbles. That's awfully impressive. The Chargers and Ravens, by comparison, have fumbled 12 and 10 times, respectively - they've just been a bit luckier in recovering their own fumbles.

Another example of the good things the players are doing (and good coaching, too, I think).

 

[percyhoward]

I'd guess without looking up the numbers that ypc and ypg are down slightly but attempts are up with Romo because Dallas has been ahead more.

Teams are loading up to stop the run when they know that Dallas is just trying to kill the clock.

But the major difference is the quality of the rush defenses faced. Houston, Philadelphia and Tennessee are all in the bottom 1/3 of the league in yards per attempt allowed, all allowing 4.2, 4.4, 4.5 respectively.

Jacksonville's solid and Washington's a wash because it was on both "halves".


The second half had Carolina at 3.9, Tampa at 4.0, Arizona at 4.2 and Indianapolis at 4.9.


Slightly better against the run than the first half with the exception of Indianapolis who sold out to shut down 1/2 of the Cowboys offense leaving the air game exposed.

You're right about yards per rush being a much better measure of a run defense. If we have indeed faced tougher run D's in the previous 5 games, and that's the reason for JJ's lower numbers, it sems like Barber's numbers should be suffering too. They aren't.

If the secret is us running all over tired defenses, then why doesn't JJ have his highest ypr in the 4th quarter, instead of his lowest?

 

[theogt]

Problem there is that Julius' worst quarter is the fourth, so tired defenses aren't helping him like they're supposedly helping the other RB.

Tired defenses are facing a tired Jones. Jones never gets the opportunity to rest the first half and play the 2nd half.

 

[theogt]

Here's an interesting stat that confirms something I've thought for awhile, which is that Julius always seems to excel more when he gets more carries. This would explain his numbers dropping now that his carries are dropping.

Yards/Carry on Carries 1-10: 3.7

Yards/Carry on Carries 11-20: 4.6

 

[vicjagger]

Percy,

Excellent! A gem of a post. Great research. That was very intersting to read, even if I'm a little late.

percyhoward