First-round arguments, Part I

[gimmesix]

Here's a position-by-position look at the reasons for drafting or not drafting a player in the first round:

Quarterback
ARGUMENT FOR
1) Tony Romo showed enough flaws down the stretch to raise questions about whether or not he will prove to be the future at the position.
2) Brad Johnson is at the stage of his career where his skills are degrading and he might not be able to step in adequately for Romo.
3) Matt Baker is a developmental prospect at best, so there is a roster spot up for grabs ... although usually you look for a third-stringer in the later rounds or as a undrafted free agent.
ARGUMENT AGAINST
1) There are only two first-round-caliber quarterbacks and both should be long gone before Dallas picks.
2) If Dallas wants to make it clear the starting job is Romo's, then bringing in a first-rounder does not show confidence in him and could create a quarterback controversy.
3) If Romo proves to be the starter, then using a first-rounder on player who will be a long-term backup is not getting the best value out of the pick this year ... although Dallas might be able to recoup its pick and more in a trade.

Fullback
ARGUMENT FOR
1) Jerry Jones wants a Daryl Johnston-caliber player to add another dimension to this offense.
2) Neither Oliver Hoyte or Lousaka Polite fits that description. Hoyte can be a powerful force when he hits his target as a blocker, but offers no versatility. Polite offers versatility but is only an average player in all aspects.
2) This position is the only one where there is not a starter who is receiving good money to start (unless you count long snapper). It is more open than any other with only two undrafted free agents contending for the spot.
ARGUMENT AGAINST
1) There are no fullbacks worth taking in the first round, and the best one is rated for the most part around Dallas' second-round pick.
2) Even if there was a fullback worth taking in the first round, it would be hard to do because the position generally is not used enough as a weapon to justify it or the money the player would receive as a first-rounder.
2) If Dallas plans to use Jason Witten and Anthony Fasano in tandem quite a bit next season, then a full-time fullback is not required and a player like Oliver Hoyte or a late-round pick can fill that kind of supporting role.

Running back
ARGUMENT FOR
1) Julius Jones will be an unrestricted free agent after this season and has not proved that Dallas should spend big money to keep him.
2) Dallas doesn't know whether Marion Barber III can carry a full load and be the No. 1 back or is best as a role player.
3) Tyson Thompson is a good kick returner, but hasn't shown enough as a running back that Dallas can't upgrade the depth ... but that's usually done in later rounds or UDFA.
4) If Dallas uses its first-rounder on the position, it might can recoup a pick later in the draft for Jones.
ARGUMENT AGAINST
1) The tandem of Jones and Barber was mostly effective last season and a change is not necessarily needed.
2) Waiting to see if Jones warrants a big contract this season might be better than using the top pick on his potential replacement.
3) Getting a pick for Jones doesn't equal the cost of using the first-rounder to replace him.
4) There are only two running backs worth taking in the first round, and both should be gone when Dallas picks.

Wide receiver
ARGUMENT FOR
1) Both starting receivers are in their 30s and showing some signs of wear, particularly Terry Glenn who has a knee condition that won't go away.
2) Patrick Crayton is playing on a one-year tender, will be an unrestricted free agent next season and will likely be looking for a shot at starting somewhere.
3) Sam Hurd and Miles Austin are intriguing, but the reality is the odds are against them developing into more than role players.
4) Receiver is a deep position in the first few rounds and good quality should be available when Dallas picks.
ARGUMENT AGAINST
1) The starters are in place and likely not going anywhere for a few years unless injuries stop them.
2) With Crayton as the third receiver, the rookie would receive negligible playing time, and mostly on special teams if he can play a role there.
3) Receiver is a deep position in the first few rounds and Dallas could wait to pick up one since he won't be expected to start this year.
4) Jones seems to like the depth at receiver, and with the top three in place there is a window for seeing how Hurd and Austin develop (although injuries could close it quick).
5) Since Dallas does like Hurd and Austin, drafting a receiver early means Dallas would have to carry six on its roster this season.

Tight end
ARGUMENT FOR
1) Best player available is about the best I've got.
2) If Dallas plans to reinstall the two-tight end system as its base, then more are needed since the Cowboys basically have two they can count on right now.
ARGUMENT AGAINST
1) Even if a tight end is the best player available, it would be inconceivable to take one with a Pro Bowler as Dallas' No. 1 tight end and a second-rounder from last year as No. 2.
2) Even if the two-tight end is used a lot, Dallas has its top two and is more in need of depth than another top tight end.
3) There is really only one tight end worth taking in the first round, although Greg Olsen could end up being available when Dallas picks.

Offensive line
ARGUMENT FOR
1) Dallas' line wasn't close to great last season, and only one change has been made to improve it.
2) Flozell Adams' contract runs out after this season and his age should keep Dallas from offering him a long-term deal.
3) Even if the starters are set, the depth is questionable. Dallas could use another tackle to pair with Pat McQuistan, another guard to pair with Cory Proctor and a backup center (if Joe Berger doesn't win that role).
ARGUMENT AGAINST
1) After all the money Dallas paid to Andre Gurode, Leonard Davis and Marc Colombo this off-season, investing in a first-round lineman would add cost to an already expensive unit.
2) The starting positions seem set, so the rookie might be relegated to being a backup. And with Dallas high on McQuistan, the starters for the next few years might already be on the roster.
3) There might not be value among the offensive linemen at Dallas' pick. Joe Staley seems to be climbing and some rate Ben Grubbs and Justin Blalock around Dallas' pick, though.
4) Dallas does not draft linemen in the first round ... although that hasn't worked out particulary well for the Cowboys.

I've got to do some work so I'll do the defensive arguments in another thread.

Please feel free to reasonably add your arguments to mine.

 

[gimmesix]

Defensive end
ARGUMENT FOR
1) None of Dallas' ends has shown himself to be a difference-maker.
2) Wade Phillips' scheme calls for ends who can provide pressure.
ARGUMENT AGAINST
1) Dallas has four players who have shown they can play end at this level, and possibly would not have a roster spot for another. Then, there's also Stephen Bowen to consider for his upside.
2) Phillips' scheme should show what the Cowboys really have in Marcus Spears, Chris Canty, Jay Ratliff and Jason Hatcher. If some of them don't have success in the Phillips 34, Dallas can look to replace them next year.
3) There is only one first-round player who looks like a good fit at 3-4 end, Adam Carriker, so it's a great possibility he won't be around when Dallas picks.

Nose tackle
ARGUMENT FOR
1) Starter Jason Ferguson played very well last year, but is on the wrong side of 30. A new starter will likely be needed in a couple of seasons.
2) Dallas has no true options to rotate with Ferguson, unless Montavious Stanley shows vast improvement.
ARGUMENT AGAINST
1) The rookie would likely be a backup to Ferguson, although he would get playing time giving Ferguson some plays off.
2) The only first-round nose tackle prospect, Alan Branch, isn't likely to fall to the 22nd pick.

Linebacker
ARGUMENT FOR
1) Any way you crunch the numbers, Dallas is short at least one player. Right now, only Bradie James and Akin Ayodele are certain at inside linebacker, although Bobby Carpenter will be tried there (and outside), according to Wade Phillips, and Kevin Burnett could be moved there as well as playing in the nickel.
2) Greg Ellis might not be able to return from his injury, and might be limited if he does, which would mean Dallas needs another true pass rusher.
3) Even if Ellis is at full strength, Dallas needs another true pass rusher to spell him and Ware.
ARGUMENT AGAINST
1) The Cowboys have spent a lot of money and picks on its linebacking corps, and have six players - DeMarcus Ware, Burnett, James, Ayodele, Carpenter, Ellis - who can contend for the starting spots.
2) Dallas might consider Junior Glymph a true pass rusher for this scheme, although that would be a big stretch IMO.
3) The options at pick No. 22 appear to be limited, with Jarvis Moss the most likely player to be there and worth the pick.

Cornerback
ARGUMENT FOR
1) One of Dallas' starters struggled late in the season. And although it was because of a knee injury, Anthony Henry has had some injury troubles in both of his seasons with Dallas and might be wearing out at this point in his career.
2) Dallas' third corner, Aaron Glenn, and two other backups, Jacques Reeves and Nathan Jones, will be unrestricted free agents after this season. So depth could disappear quickly.
3) Although the top three spots are currently filled, a rookie would likely win the fourth corner job and contribute.
4) Most experts have corners valued in the range of Dallas' pick.
ARGUMENT AGAINST
1) Dallas has its starters, and if they remain healthy, they likely will hold their jobs for a couple of years at least.
2) Although the rookie could get playing time, it would be limited on defense with Glenn as the third corner.
3) There appears to be good depth at the position in the draft, so Dallas could get a backup to groom after the first round.

Safety
ARGUMENT FOR
1) Ken Hamlin was brought in on a one-year contract, and might not be the center fielder Dallas needs anyway.
2) Pat Watkins didn't offer enough proof that he's the answer at free safety in his rookie season. So who will start is not concrete.
3) Dallas could move Hamlin to backup at strong safety if a rookie was brought in, and neither Keith Davis nor Abram Elam have shown that he needs to be kept, so there is room on the roster.
ARGUMENT AGAINST
1) Hamlin was brought in to start or least compete with Watkins, whom Jerry Jones said is the future, for the starting job, so Dallas might be content with what it's got.
2) Both of the top free safeties, Laron Landry and Reggie Nelson, could be gone when Dallas picks, and character concerns about Brandon Meriweather will probably keep the Cowboys from using a first-rounder on him.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

You kind of have to look ath the prospect available in the first. I mean if a guy like Levi Brown or Marshawn Lynch falls to us you kind of have to draft them. Pretty much what would make this draft is if one of Branch, Hall, Willis, Lynch or Brown falls to us. Doubt one of them will but if they do it would be sweet.

Im also a bit confused as to why you say we are one short on the linebackers. We have our starters set i guess youre talking in terms of backups but with Glymph and Burnett here im still a bit confused especially if Ellis returns to form.

As for the fullbacks im very interested to see how Hoyte is working on his receiving skills this offseason. hes by far the best blocker weve had at the position since Johnston.

 

[Chrissyboy]

Great analysis. Thanks for posting.

I can understand the LB situation - only 6 definite keepers on the roster (assuming Ellis' fit return) and Junior Glymph who had some good moments.

I still wouldn't choose one in the 1st round though.

 

[mmillman]

"ARGUMENT AGAINST
1) The starters are in place and likely not going anywhere for a few years unless injuries stop them.
2) With Crayton as the third receiver, the rookie would receive negligible playing time, and mostly on special teams if he can play a role there.
3) Receiver is a deep position in the first few rounds and Dallas could wait to pick up one since he won't be expected to start this year.
4) Jones seems to like the depth at receiver, and with the top three in place there is a window for seeing how Hurd and Austin develop (although injuries could close it quick).
5) Since Dallas does like Hurd and Austin, drafting a receiver early means Dallas would have to carry six on its roster this season."

Dallas will not have the same WR's for a few years. Next year they will be 35 and 36. That is ancient by NFL standards and T.O. could erupt at any time. They can't wait to find a number 1 WR after the fact. Rookie wr's aren't going to help Romo or the team. Draft a number 1 put him in three and four WR sets let him learn the NFL game then he can step in when either Glenn or T.O. retire, get injured or can't produce.

 

[gimmesix]

Im also a bit confused as to why you say we are one short on the linebackers. We have our starters set i guess youre talking in terms of backups but with Glymph and Burnett here im still a bit confused especially if Ellis returns to form..

Yes, I'm talking total numbers on the linebackers. For this defense, you'd like to carry eight.

I believe we currently have seven linebackers, and really six that we know we can play — Ware, Ayodele, James, Ellis, Burnett and Carpenter — and Junior Glymph.

 

[gimmesix]

Dallas will not have the same WR's for a few years. Next year they will be 35 and 36. That is ancient by NFL standards and T.O. could erupt at any time. They can't wait to find a number 1 WR after the fact. Rookie wr's aren't going to help Romo or the team. Draft a number 1 put him in three and four WR sets let him learn the NFL game then he can step in when either Glenn or T.O. retire, get injured or can't produce.

I'm not arguing age on that point, but contract. Assuming that Glenn and Owens stay healthy and productive, they will be the starters for the next couple of years at least.

Like you said, though, they are getting "ancient" and could go downhill at any time. That's my first argument for bringing in a first-round receiver.