FO Draft Toys

JD_KaPow

JD_KaPow

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Football Outsiders has a few different systems for evaluating prospects. Basically, they look at traits (physical, college productivity, scout's views in the form of draft projections) that have historically correlated with NFL success. I wouldn't take it all that seriously, but it's fun to look at and I like that it's objective. It also gives you some hints about what things to focus on or discount. Like, say, pass rushers who have one big year when they're a senior tend to flame out (*cough* Taco *cough*).

SackSEER
This is the one for pass rushers. As noted above, the system hated Taco and saw him as a bust. You can also point to plenty of guys it was wrong about, of course.

This year, the system likes Jaelan Phillips a lot (I don't think it knows about the concussions). It sees Paye, Rousseau and especially Tryon as overrated. It likes Basham and Ossai as second-day guys. It flags Elerson Smith as a sleeper.

Playmaker Score
This is the one for wide receivers. It loves loves loves DeVonta Smith and it also likes Chase slightly better than anyone from last year (Cee Dee was the #1 guy last year, but it was close with Jeudy. Last year, they had Jefferson a bit ahead of Ruggs as well). It doesn't like Waddle all that much and it hates Toney. The sleeper it flags is D'Wayne Eskridge.

QBASE
This is the one for QBs. Their order is Lawrence-Wilson-Lance-Fields-Jones.
 
:laugh: I thought "FO" meant Front Office draft toys and I was totally stoked to see a pic of Jerry playing with Surtain and Pitts action figures!
 
JD_KaPow said:
Football Outsiders has a few different systems for evaluating prospects. Basically, they look at traits (physical, college productivity, scout's views in the form of draft projections) that have historically correlated with NFL success. I wouldn't take it all that seriously, but it's fun to look at and I like that it's objective. It also gives you some hints about what things to focus on or discount. Like, say, pass rushers who have one big year when they're a senior tend to flame out (*cough* Taco *cough*).

SackSEER
This is the one for pass rushers. As noted above, the system hated Taco and saw him as a bust. You can also point to plenty of guys it was wrong about, of course.

This year, the system likes Jaelan Phillips a lot (I don't think it knows about the concussions). It sees Paye, Rousseau and especially Tryon as overrated. It likes Basham and Ossai as second-day guys. It flags Elerson Smith as a sleeper.

Playmaker Score
This is the one for wide receivers. It loves loves loves DeVonta Smith and it also likes Chase slightly better than anyone from last year (Cee Dee was the #1 guy last year, but it was close with Jeudy. Last year, they had Jefferson a bit ahead of Ruggs as well). It doesn't like Waddle all that much and it hates Toney. The sleeper it flags is D'Wayne Eskridge.

QBASE
This is the one for QBs. Their order is Lawrence-Wilson-Lance-Fields-Jones.
Click to expand...

that's cool, and I agree with their SackSEER assessments. I think Phillips is a true beast about to explode on the NFL scene. Basham and Ossai are definitely on my radar in rds 2-3. I wouldn't even sniff Paye, unless I'm the eagles, then I trade all my picks for him. The other 2 may end up being fine, or maybe busts. Tyron I think will be at least ok.
 
visionary said:
CBs are not impact players (except in the mind of delusional football fans) and so that ranking is not done because it is a waste

:muttley:
Click to expand...

Bill Bellichick doesn't know what he's doing?
 
JD_KaPow said:
Football Outsiders has a few different systems for evaluating prospects. Basically, they look at traits (physical, college productivity, scout's views in the form of draft projections) that have historically correlated with NFL success. I wouldn't take it all that seriously, but it's fun to look at and I like that it's objective. It also gives you some hints about what things to focus on or discount. Like, say, pass rushers who have one big year when they're a senior tend to flame out (*cough* Taco *cough*).

SackSEER
This is the one for pass rushers. As noted above, the system hated Taco and saw him as a bust. You can also point to plenty of guys it was wrong about, of course.

This year, the system likes Jaelan Phillips a lot (I don't think it knows about the concussions). It sees Paye, Rousseau and especially Tryon as overrated. It likes Basham and Ossai as second-day guys. It flags Elerson Smith as a sleeper.

Playmaker Score
This is the one for wide receivers. It loves loves loves DeVonta Smith and it also likes Chase slightly better than anyone from last year (Cee Dee was the #1 guy last year, but it was close with Jeudy. Last year, they had Jefferson a bit ahead of Ruggs as well). It doesn't like Waddle all that much and it hates Toney. The sleeper it flags is D'Wayne Eskridge.

QBASE
This is the one for QBs. Their order is Lawrence-Wilson-Lance-Fields-Jones.
Click to expand...
So this system does not penalize Phillips for concussions but knocks Rousseau for lack of experience?

If not there's no way to call him overrated. The few games he has played in he has been the real deal....its just been a very small sample size to invest a high pick on.
 
visionary said:
can you show me a verbatim direct quote from Bellichick that CB are more impactful than Front 7?
Click to expand...

Can you show me a verbatim direct quote from Belichick that DL are more impactful than front 7?
 
JBS said:
Can you show me a verbatim direct quote from Belichick that DL are more impactful than front 7?
Click to expand...

you are the one that made that claim about Bellichick, not me. Now show me or admit you made it up

I can see the backtrack skid marks from here
 
visionary said:
you are the one that made that claim about Bellichick, not me. Now show me or admit you made it up

I can see the backtrack skid marks from here
Click to expand...

Nobody is backtracking on anything. Go read my original post again
 
fivetwos said:
So this system does not penalize Phillips for concussions but knocks Rousseau for lack of experience?

If not there's no way to call him overrated. The few games he has played in he has been the real deal....its just been a very small sample size to invest a high pick on.
Click to expand...
I think you just agreed: given the information available, the risk is high at the projected draft spot.
 
JD_KaPow said:
Football Outsiders has a few different systems for evaluating prospects. Basically, they look at traits (physical, college productivity, scout's views in the form of draft projections) that have historically correlated with NFL success. I wouldn't take it all that seriously, but it's fun to look at and I like that it's objective. It also gives you some hints about what things to focus on or discount. Like, say, pass rushers who have one big year when they're a senior tend to flame out (*cough* Taco *cough*).

SackSEER
This is the one for pass rushers. As noted above, the system hated Taco and saw him as a bust. You can also point to plenty of guys it was wrong about, of course.

This year, the system likes Jaelan Phillips a lot (I don't think it knows about the concussions). It sees Paye, Rousseau and especially Tryon as overrated. It likes Basham and Ossai as second-day guys. It flags Elerson Smith as a sleeper.

Playmaker Score
This is the one for wide receivers. It loves loves loves DeVonta Smith and it also likes Chase slightly better than anyone from last year (Cee Dee was the #1 guy last year, but it was close with Jeudy. Last year, they had Jefferson a bit ahead of Ruggs as well). It doesn't like Waddle all that much and it hates Toney. The sleeper it flags is D'Wayne Eskridge.

QBASE
This is the one for QBs. Their order is Lawrence-Wilson-Lance-Fields-Jones.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the info
 
JD_KaPow said:
Football Outsiders has a few different systems for evaluating prospects. Basically, they look at traits (physical, college productivity, scout's views in the form of draft projections) that have historically correlated with NFL success. I wouldn't take it all that seriously, but it's fun to look at and I like that it's objective. It also gives you some hints about what things to focus on or discount. Like, say, pass rushers who have one big year when they're a senior tend to flame out (*cough* Taco *cough*).

SackSEER
This is the one for pass rushers. As noted above, the system hated Taco and saw him as a bust. You can also point to plenty of guys it was wrong about, of course.

This year, the system likes Jaelan Phillips a lot (I don't think it knows about the concussions). It sees Paye, Rousseau and especially Tryon as overrated. It likes Basham and Ossai as second-day guys. It flags Elerson Smith as a sleeper.

Playmaker Score
This is the one for wide receivers. It loves loves loves DeVonta Smith and it also likes Chase slightly better than anyone from last year (Cee Dee was the #1 guy last year, but it was close with Jeudy. Last year, they had Jefferson a bit ahead of Ruggs as well). It doesn't like Waddle all that much and it hates Toney. The sleeper it flags is D'Wayne Eskridge.

QBASE
This is the one for QBs. Their order is Lawrence-Wilson-Lance-Fields-Jones.
Click to expand...
FO has always had quality stuff. SackSeer has typically been a pretty solid predictor
 
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