JD_KaPow
jimnabby
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http://www.footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2017/nfc-divisional-round-playoff-preview-2017
Spoiler alert: they pick the Cowboys. The summary pasted below, but I highly recommend reading the whole thing.
OUTLOOK
Missing Jordy Nelson is a problem, but the other reasons for Green Bay's offensive improvement should still hold: more creative play calling, an improved running game, and spectacular throws from Rodgers. It's hard to imagine that the Cowboys will be able to keep the Packers offense as bottled up as they did back in Week 6. But their offense isn't exactly chopped liver. Even during this period when the Packers have been red-hot, the Cowboys have kept their offense on schedule and kept the chains moving at roughly the same rate. The big difference has been turnovers, as the Packers' only turnover since Week 12 came on a botched handoff while the Cowboys turned the ball over six times in Weeks 12-16. (Forget Week 17, which was stupid.)
The Packers aren't likely to suddenly start turning the ball over as frequently as they did back in Week 6, but the Cowboys can still use all that pass coverage to keep the Packers from too many big yardage gains. Their run defense will make it difficult for the Packers to run their way into advantageous down-and-distance situations. You can't hold Aaron Rodgers down, but this offense is good enough to outscore him given the holes on the Packers defense. It's going to be very hard to stop Ezekiel Elliott all day long, and it's going to be hard to cover all the Cowboys receivers well unless you can have constant success blitzing Dak Prescott mercilessly. And while that strategy would probably have some success, it probably wouldn't have enough success.
All year long, the Dallas Cowboys have been powered by their fabulous offense, but both teams in this game have a fabulous offense. This week, the Cowboys are the favorite to move on to the NFC Championship Game because they have the better defense, not the better offense. And a week of rest and home-field advantage certainly don't hurt.
Spoiler alert: they pick the Cowboys. The summary pasted below, but I highly recommend reading the whole thing.
OUTLOOK
Missing Jordy Nelson is a problem, but the other reasons for Green Bay's offensive improvement should still hold: more creative play calling, an improved running game, and spectacular throws from Rodgers. It's hard to imagine that the Cowboys will be able to keep the Packers offense as bottled up as they did back in Week 6. But their offense isn't exactly chopped liver. Even during this period when the Packers have been red-hot, the Cowboys have kept their offense on schedule and kept the chains moving at roughly the same rate. The big difference has been turnovers, as the Packers' only turnover since Week 12 came on a botched handoff while the Cowboys turned the ball over six times in Weeks 12-16. (Forget Week 17, which was stupid.)
The Packers aren't likely to suddenly start turning the ball over as frequently as they did back in Week 6, but the Cowboys can still use all that pass coverage to keep the Packers from too many big yardage gains. Their run defense will make it difficult for the Packers to run their way into advantageous down-and-distance situations. You can't hold Aaron Rodgers down, but this offense is good enough to outscore him given the holes on the Packers defense. It's going to be very hard to stop Ezekiel Elliott all day long, and it's going to be hard to cover all the Cowboys receivers well unless you can have constant success blitzing Dak Prescott mercilessly. And while that strategy would probably have some success, it probably wouldn't have enough success.
All year long, the Dallas Cowboys have been powered by their fabulous offense, but both teams in this game have a fabulous offense. This week, the Cowboys are the favorite to move on to the NFC Championship Game because they have the better defense, not the better offense. And a week of rest and home-field advantage certainly don't hurt.
