FO: QB Performance by Route

[JD_KaPow]

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-dvoa-routes-quarterbacks

Not sure what to make of it, and in many cases we're talking about small numbers, and of course a lot depends on the people on the receiving end.

• Dak was pretty good at outs, slants and screens.
• He was excellent at go/fly routes, drags, and freakin' amazing at posts (small numbers).
• He was terrific when the play was broken, but there weren't actually that many of those (I don't think they count scrambles, so I should say that he didn't throw many passes on broken plays).
• He was disastrously bad at digs and fades.

On digs: "Dak Prescott saw his dig attempts drop between 2017 and 2018, which makes sense as he had a negative DVOA on them two years ago. Perhaps they didn't drop enough, however, as Prescott joined Blake Bortles as the only quarterbacks to put up significant negative DYAR on the route in 2018. If you take out Cole Beasley (say, by letting him go to Buffalo) Prescott drops to -75 DYAR on the route. Dez Bryant and Jason Witten were Prescott's best two dig targets in 2017, so some dropoff last season probably would have been expected, but eesh." (No, I'm not exactly sure how they distinguish digs from drags.)

On fades: "Two years ago, Dak Prescott threw 17 fades to Dez Bryant, and managed a total of 4 DYAR on the route. With Bryant gone, Prescott never found someone he was comfortable with -- Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper combined for 11 fades from Prescott, with only one completion between them. Each player had at least -20 DYAR on the route, but Prescott and the Cowboys kept throwing it. Cut it out, just a little bit, guys."

 

[Sydla]

The fade might be one of my least favorite plays in football. And not because Dak stinks at it. Because I just think it's a low percentage play.

 

[JD_KaPow]

The fade might be one of my least favorite plays in football. And not because Dak stinks at it. Because I just think it's a low percentage play.

You're not wrong:

There were 431 fade targets in the NFL last season; they produced the lowest DVOA of any of the routes we're looking at today. It should also be noted that "back-shoulder fades" are a separate category in our database. The back-shoulder fade is notably more effective (2.6% DVOA on 180 targets). These stats are for the more general form of the route.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

The fade might be one of my least favorite plays in football. And not because Dak stinks at it. Because I just think it's a low percentage play.

THANK YOU!!!
Hopefully Dak being sub-par at fades means it'll fade from our playbook. Such a low % chance of success play, that also is high risk.

 

[HungryLion]

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-dvoa-routes-quarterbacks

Not sure what to make of it, and in many cases we're talking about small numbers, and of course a lot depends on the people on the receiving end.

• Dak was pretty good at outs, slants and screens.
• He was excellent at go/fly routes, drags, and freakin' amazing at posts (small numbers).
• He was terrific when the play was broken, but there weren't actually that many of those (I don't think they count scrambles, so I should say that he didn't throw many passes on broken plays).
• He was disastrously bad at digs and fades.

On digs: "Dak Prescott saw his dig attempts drop between 2017 and 2018, which makes sense as he had a negative DVOA on them two years ago. Perhaps they didn't drop enough, however, as Prescott joined Blake Bortles as the only quarterbacks to put up significant negative DYAR on the route in 2018. If you take out Cole Beasley (say, by letting him go to Buffalo) Prescott drops to -75 DYAR on the route. Dez Bryant and Jason Witten were Prescott's best two dig targets in 2017, so some dropoff last season probably would have been expected, but eesh." (No, I'm not exactly sure how they distinguish digs from drags.)

On fades: "Two years ago, Dak Prescott threw 17 fades to Dez Bryant, and managed a total of 4 DYAR on the route. With Bryant gone, Prescott never found someone he was comfortable with -- Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper combined for 11 fades from Prescott, with only one completion between them. Each player had at least -20 DYAR on the route, but Prescott and the Cowboys kept throwing it. Cut it out, just a little bit, guys."

Cool information. Hopefully Kellen maximizes the routes that Dak is good at throwing.

 

[HungryLion]

The fade might be one of my least favorite plays in football. And not because Dak stinks at it. Because I just think it's a low percentage play.

I feel like the coaches got spoiled by Romo and Dez.

Romo was a savvy veteran by the time Dez was a cowboy. Dez was just a physical FREAK at jump balls/contested catches.

So Romo and Dez being so good at them. Spoiled the coaches and they have been slow to adjust after having QB/receivers that aren’t nearly as good.

They really need to minimize their use as much as possible.