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FootballOutsiders.com, Updated 10 hours ago
Separating the performance of a group of receivers from the quarterback, offensive line and scheme inextricably attached to it is a difficult task. For every wide-open completion between Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison, how can we give credit to Manning for his laser, rocket arm and ignore the artistry of Harrison's routes?
While Football Outsiders is known for trafficking in statistics and data, the solution here is to watch as much as possible and notice the subtleties of how receivers play. Do they run out their routes every time, even if they're the third or fourth option? Are they unable to adapt when they get bumped on the line? Do they block well? Do they sell their routes well enough to create space? And, of course, after getting open and shouting the quarterback's name as loud as possible like you did when you were eight, do NFL receivers do what they're paid to do: catch the ball?
Taking all these things into account and combining them with the statistical toolbox we employ, we've ranked the receiving corps of all 32 NFL teams, accounting for both their wide receivers and tight ends. Remember that we're grading the performance and talent of a group of receivers, not a team's passing attack.
While we'll be taking previous performance into account, players aren't static; some of the players who played well in 2006 may not have a job come 2008. While that can be due to age (see: Smith, Rod), some players who seemed promising can be out of a job as soon as they seemed to have one; ask Zach Hilton or Doug Gabriel about their 2006 seasons sometime. We'll be accounting for age and normal development trends in determining how these receiver groups sort out for 2007. The numbers in parentheses represent our ranks for each team a year ago.
For an explanation on the tools used to determine the rankings, check out the sidebar.
After all that, who's No. 1 at receiver? Surprisingly, it's the same team that we ranked No. 1 last year.
1. Dallas (1)
After six weeks of Drew Bledsoe, the Cowboys' receivers were struggling. While Terry Glenn had a very respectable 16.8 percent DVOA, Terrell Owens was at a woeful -7.7 percent, and Patrick Crayton (the likely third or fourth target on most plays) had only been thrown 12 passes in six weeks because Bledsoe couldn't stay upright long enough to find him. Even Jason Witten's 17.0 percent DVOA had him at a mediocre 13th amongst tight ends.
By the end of the year, Glenn's DVOA had improved to 20.4 percent, while Owens got all the way up to 12.2 percent. Crayton got 36 more attempts in the final 10 games and was the best third receiver in football. Witten's DVOA went up to 19.1 percent, seventh amongst all tight ends. The point: Having an even competent quarterback can be the difference between a group of receivers struggling, or being amongst the league's elite. While Owens and Glenn are getting up there in age, both have yet to show an appreciable level of decline in their metrics, and Owens will likely see an improved catch rate after healing his finger injury. Crayton remains one of the unsung threats in the league, and Witten, the best tight end in a division full of them. A team's top four receivers will see 65-70 percent of all the throws made by a quarterback over the course of a season; one through four, no one's better than the Cowboys.
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7033282
Separating the performance of a group of receivers from the quarterback, offensive line and scheme inextricably attached to it is a difficult task. For every wide-open completion between Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison, how can we give credit to Manning for his laser, rocket arm and ignore the artistry of Harrison's routes?
While Football Outsiders is known for trafficking in statistics and data, the solution here is to watch as much as possible and notice the subtleties of how receivers play. Do they run out their routes every time, even if they're the third or fourth option? Are they unable to adapt when they get bumped on the line? Do they block well? Do they sell their routes well enough to create space? And, of course, after getting open and shouting the quarterback's name as loud as possible like you did when you were eight, do NFL receivers do what they're paid to do: catch the ball?
Taking all these things into account and combining them with the statistical toolbox we employ, we've ranked the receiving corps of all 32 NFL teams, accounting for both their wide receivers and tight ends. Remember that we're grading the performance and talent of a group of receivers, not a team's passing attack.
While we'll be taking previous performance into account, players aren't static; some of the players who played well in 2006 may not have a job come 2008. While that can be due to age (see: Smith, Rod), some players who seemed promising can be out of a job as soon as they seemed to have one; ask Zach Hilton or Doug Gabriel about their 2006 seasons sometime. We'll be accounting for age and normal development trends in determining how these receiver groups sort out for 2007. The numbers in parentheses represent our ranks for each team a year ago.
For an explanation on the tools used to determine the rankings, check out the sidebar.
After all that, who's No. 1 at receiver? Surprisingly, it's the same team that we ranked No. 1 last year.
1. Dallas (1)
After six weeks of Drew Bledsoe, the Cowboys' receivers were struggling. While Terry Glenn had a very respectable 16.8 percent DVOA, Terrell Owens was at a woeful -7.7 percent, and Patrick Crayton (the likely third or fourth target on most plays) had only been thrown 12 passes in six weeks because Bledsoe couldn't stay upright long enough to find him. Even Jason Witten's 17.0 percent DVOA had him at a mediocre 13th amongst tight ends.
By the end of the year, Glenn's DVOA had improved to 20.4 percent, while Owens got all the way up to 12.2 percent. Crayton got 36 more attempts in the final 10 games and was the best third receiver in football. Witten's DVOA went up to 19.1 percent, seventh amongst all tight ends. The point: Having an even competent quarterback can be the difference between a group of receivers struggling, or being amongst the league's elite. While Owens and Glenn are getting up there in age, both have yet to show an appreciable level of decline in their metrics, and Owens will likely see an improved catch rate after healing his finger injury. Crayton remains one of the unsung threats in the league, and Witten, the best tight end in a division full of them. A team's top four receivers will see 65-70 percent of all the throws made by a quarterback over the course of a season; one through four, no one's better than the Cowboys.
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7033282
