Football Outsiders Almanac-Great Igor Stat...

[JD_KaPow]

FO has released their annual, and I'm reading the Cowboys section. No big revelations, but a good, balanced write-up, IMO. A few tidbits:

While the Phillips 3-4 hasn’t been designed to get pass pressure from its defensive ends since the days of Patrick Kerney in Atlanta, Dallas defensive ends produced a total of just three sacks all season. Former Chargers lineman Igor Olshansky played in all 16 games and started 14 of them; he produced 4.5 quarterback hurries, three quarterback hits, and no sacks. That’s absurd; a starting defensive end should have the opposing offensive lineman fall down and create free hurries for him five or six times a year....

Even more disconcerting was the play of Jenkins.... After putting up elite numbers in his second season, Jenkins was arguably the worst regular cornerback in the NFL last season. He allowed 10.6 adjusted yards per attempt ... His six defensive pass interference penalties placed him among the league leaders ... He tied for the team lead with eight missed tackles. He said the art in Cowboys Stadium was tacky at best. He forgot to install that new temporary seating before the Super Bowl.... You get the idea.... a swing like Jenkins’ from 2009 to 2010 is just about unprecedented, and in this case the numbers are clearly backed up by what we all saw on the field. All we can say about his 2011 performance is that it’s all but sure to fit somewhere between those two extremes. Jenkins has proven that he’s quite capable of both brilliance and slapstick, and it’s impossible to say which version will show up in 2011....

There was one other factor, though, that had a huge impact on the Cowboys’ win-loss record: luck in close games. The Cowboys were 3-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less, including an incredible 0-6 start to the season in such games. A virtually identical roster went 11-8 in those games from 2007-09, and history suggests that the Cowboys should regress towards a .500 record in such games in 2010....

So the offense is likely to be better, and the team’s overall luck is likely to be better. The defense is what pulls our mean projection down to 8-8. The Cowboys hope that Rob Ryan can design blitzes that bring more pass pressure, but like every other team with a new coordinator, the Cowboys are starting the 2011 season behind....

For a window into this year’s Dallas defense, look at Rob Ryan’s defense last year in Cleveland. The Browns sent the standard four pass rushers just one-third of the time, last in the NFL. They led the league in pass plays where they sent three (19.5 percent) or five (36.7 percent). Ryan’s defense also blitzed (five or more pass rushers) more often than any other defense on first or second down, 49 percent of passes. But Ryan actually blitzed less often on third downs, just 42 percent of passes.

 

[windward]

They pick us to go 8-8 every year.

 

[dwmyers]

They pick us to go 8-8 every year.

Actually, for the 2007 season, they picked us to go 7-9 and have a worse record than Detroit.

I guess we can remember how well that worked out.

D-

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Of course those numbers for Igor were absurd.

That's what when several people were chomping at the bit to banish Spencer, it was mentioned by several folks, to look at the horrible production by the DE's on this team. That's where the real problem with the Cowboy pass rush was in 2010.

A 16-game starter getting 0 sacks and forcing 4.5 hurries?

I don't care if he's a 3-4 end. Those numbers are horrendous.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Kearney played OLB for the Falcons in Wade's 3-4 there.





YR

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Read some of it so far. Much better balanced review than in 2010 (where they were actually 'right' in a sense), with Tanier...a Eagles blowhard...writing our review and just took potshots at us. Of course, they have Tanier lapdog it up for the Eagles.

I'll say this, the stat projections since 1999 say that we'll probably see 4 of the 8 division winners *not* make the playoffs (that's not an FO.com thing, that's historical breakdown of the NFL). However, the tendency is clear...the teams that miss it usually miss it due to an injured QB and usually that QB has an injury history.

So.....

They've the Pats, Steelers, Eagles and Falcons returning to the playoffs. But, Roethlisberger and Vick are easily the most injury prone of all of the QB's starting on a division winner.

Meanwhile there's Peyton, Cassel, Cutler and T-Jackson...who really don't have any injury history.

Kinda going against the grain there.







3JACK

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The more i think about the more i think Olshansky may have been juicing. He is only 29 years old and you look at his physique now compared to what it was 4 years ago in SD and its pretty striking.

He has had no major injuries yet his strength and quickness have plummeted like you see in someone 5 years his elder. Other players from that mid 2000s Chargers team have also fallen off a cliff.

Just makes me wonder.

 

[SaltwaterServr]

The more i think about the more i think Olshansky may have been juicing. He is only 29 years old and you look at his physique now compared to what it was 4 years ago in SD and its pretty striking.

He has had no major injuries yet his strength and quickness have plummeted like you see in someone 5 years his elder. Other players from that mid 2000s Chargers team have also fallen off a cliff.

Just makes me wonder.

You really may be onto something there. Merriman might just have been the unlucky sap, or unintelligent dope, that got caught out of the group.

 

[Temo]

Kearney played OLB for the Falcons in Wade's 3-4 there.

I'm pretty sure Kerney played DE in a 3-4 under Phillips in Atlanta.

 

[kTXe]

What the hell is a 1/2 hurry?

 

[SaltwaterServr]

What the hell is a 1/2 hurry?

Two players converging on the QB, equidistant from contact with said offensive player, that results in similar pressure concluding with a hurried throw by the QB. Or it is the speed at which Wade Phillips meanders down a Chinese buffet line when two empty pans at the end have been pulled and the two new ones with unknown delectables are not yet in place.

 

[JBell]

bu-bu-bu 3-4 DE's main job is to stop the run.

Wait, Igor can't do that either.

 

[SaltwaterServr]

bu-bu-bu 3-4 DE's main job is to stop the run.

Wait, Igor can't do that either.

Pepto Bismol seems to do a better job than he does.

 

[casmith07]

Cut him.

 

[burmafrd]

His totals are pathetic especially for someone as strong as he is supposed to be; by strength alone he should be able to force the pocket in from his side and occasionally get a sack or a pressure. He should get about 3 sacks a year and at least 10 pressures.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I'm pretty sure Kerney played DE in a 3-4 under Phillips in Atlanta.

He played 3-4 OLB.

Particularly I remember the next season when the Falcons moved back to 4-3 and he was playing DE, Jaworski showed why Kearney was a much better 4-3 DE than a 3-4 OLB and showed a play of him at 4-3 DE and a play of him in a 2-point stance as a 3-4 OLB.

One other thing...I like the FO.com guys, but they still don't grasp the concept of the 'gambler's fallacy' when it comes to injuries. Just becuase a team avoid's injuries, doesn't mean that they are due to have a high amount of injuries. It means that they are likely to have about the mean amount of injuries. Another poster has brought this up, but if I flip a coin and land on heads 7 times in a row, the 8th time is still a 50/50 chance of landing on tails...not a greater than 50% chance.

But like I said, I still like reading the book a lot.






YR

 

[Kevinicus]

Read some of it so far. Much better balanced review than in 2010 (where they were actually 'right' in a sense), with Tanier...a Eagles blowhard...writing our review and just took potshots at us. Of course, they have Tanier lapdog it up for the Eagles.

I'll say this, the stat projections since 1999 say that we'll probably see 4 of the 8 division winners *not* make the playoffs (that's not an FO.com thing, that's historical breakdown of the NFL). However, the tendency is clear...the teams that miss it usually miss it due to an injured QB and usually that QB has an injury history.

So.....

They've the Pats, Steelers, Eagles and Falcons returning to the playoffs. But, Roethlisberger and Vick are easily the most injury prone of all of the QB's starting on a division winner.

Meanwhile there's Peyton, Cassel, Cutler and T-Jackson...who really don't have any injury history.

Kinda going against the grain there.







3JACK

Hasselback to Tavaris...that's basically the same as an injury.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

His totals are pathetic especially for someone as strong as he is supposed to be; by strength alone he should be able to force the pocket in from his side and occasionally get a sack or a pressure. He should get about 3 sacks a year and at least 10 pressures.

If the Cowboys had a DE who could do that and you would see the sack numbers increase for everyone on the front 7.

 

[nicomachus]

Just curious if Yakuza or someone else who has a copy wouldn't mind posting the mean wins projections for the NFC East. Thanks.

 

[tupperware]

Do they have statistics about how much he dances compared to the average NFL player? I was disappointed this thread wasn't about that.