Football Outsiders: Dallas has 92 percent chance of making the playoffs

[AdamJT13]

Don't ask me how accurate their formula is, but Football Outsiders has simulated 50,000 NFL seasons based on information after four games, and right now, they say we have a 92 percent chance of making the playoffs.


http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php

They say we have a 78.7 percent chance of winning the division (with a 49.8 percent chance of getting a first-round bye) and a 13.3 percent chance of being the wild card. By seed number, it's 28.5 percent that we'll get the No. 1 seed, 21.3 percent for No. 2, 17.1 percent for No. 3, 11.6 percent for No. 4, 8.5 percent for No. 5 and 4.8 percent for No. 6.

They have the Packers with the best chance of getting the No. 1 seed in the NFC, mostly because their division is so bad.

 

[superpunk]

They have the Packers with the best chance of getting the No. 1 seed in the NFC, mostly because their division is so bad.

Yeah. Whereas every team in our division grades out in the top 16 of their team efficiency rankings.

 

[TheSkaven]

If this team gets to 5-0, with the Giants likely at 3-2, Commanders at 2-2 and Eagles at 1-3, it is going to be awful difficult for teams to catch up. I guess I'd give the Giants an outside chance.

 

[sago1]

I hadn't thought about what kind of seed we'd have if the Packers continue to play well. Cowboys need to play very well every game and hopefully playing in GB in January won't be necessary. Since this could happen, I'm really going to be rooting for any team that plays the Packers to beat them. Same goes w/o saying for whoever plays Cleveland.

 

[dogunwo]

I may be wrong but I think its only a matter of time before that thing in Green Bay bottoms out.

 

[BBQ101]

I may be wrong but I think its only a matter of time before that thing in Green Bay bottoms out.

Green Bay has a good young defense. Favre is playing very well. I think they will roll for a while.

But I agree I think they will bottom out...I just think it will be the playoffs when it happens. We may be fighting for home field with these guys the whole regular season.

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[03EBZ06]

Packers are dead last in rushing game, averaging paltry 54 yards per game, and that will eventually catch up with them. Their defense isn't as good as many make them out to be either, they are middle of the pack defense, nothing special.

 

[kevwun]

I think it's only a matter of time before Favre turns back in to an interception machine. As Emmitt would say, it's hard for a leopard to change it's stripes.

 

[BBQ101]

I think it's only a matter of time before Favre turns back in to an interception machine. As Emmitt would say, it's hard for a leopard to change it's stripes.

Classic. That always is good for a chuckle.


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[BBQ101]

Packers are dead last in rushing game, averaging paltry 54 yards per game, and that will eventually catch up with them. Their defense isn't as good as many make them out to be either, they are middle of the pack defense, nothing special.

The problem is the NFC as a whole is not that good. They do have problems rushing the ball, but they wont face enough good teams for it to make a difference until the hit the playoffs. Thats when it will come back to haunt them.

As to their defense, they played at the giants the week after we did. The Giants only scored 13. Maybe its because we roughed up Manning a bit, but I think alot had to do with their defense. I think it is better than middle of the pack...especially in the NFC.

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[theogt]

I think it's only a matter of time before Favre turns back in to an interception machine. As Emmitt would say, it's hard for a leopard to change it's stripes.

I don't know. That's a pretty good golf club, they got up there in Wisconsin.

 

[utrunner07]

Maybe its because we roughed up Manning a bit, but I think alot had to do with their defense.
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and took out jacobs

 

[Doomsday101]

The problem is the NFC as a whole is not that good. They do have problems rushing the ball, but they wont face enough good teams for it to make a difference until the hit the playoffs. Thats when it will come back to haunt them.

As to their defense, they played at the giants the week after we did. The Giants only scored 13. Maybe its because we roughed up Manning a bit, but I think alot had to do with their defense. I think it is better than middle of the pack...especially in the NFC.

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I'm looking forward to getting rid of the lable that the NFC is not as good. Dallas and Green Bay are both perfect on the season just as The Colts and Pats are. As for the rest of the AFC no other teams are standing out as great teams. Steelers just lost to an improving Cards team. In past season I would have agreed that the AFC was stronger but I think that gap is closing quickly right now. SD looks like crap as does KC, Den and Balt. so who are the the power houses of the AFC except for Indy and NE?

 

[big dog cowboy]

Interesting numbers.

But I'd give us a 100% chance to beating Buffalo Monday night.

 

[BBQ101]

I'm looking forward to getting rid of the lable that the NFC is not as good. Dallas and Green Bay are both perfect on the season just as The Colts and Pats are. As for the rest of the AFC no other teams are standing out as great teams. Steelers just lost to an improving Cards team. In past season I would have agreed that the AFC was stronger but I think that gap is closing quickly right now. SD looks like crap as does KC, Den and Balt. so who are the the power houses of the AFC except for Indy and NE?

Me too, but that probably wont change for a bit. AFC has won 8 of the last 10 superbowls, including the last 4 straight. NFC needs to start changing that, and I think the Cowboys have a good chance of starting the correction.

Truthfully, I think the two conferences are pretty even talent wise. You have two or three dominant teams in each conference and then another 4 or so teams that have some sort of chance, and then the scrub teams.

The AFC West just may be that crapiest division in the league as well. Although the NFC West and South are not ready to concede to them just yet.

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[onetrickpony]

I may be wrong but I think its only a matter of time before that thing in Green Bay bottoms out.

Green Bay is this season's New Orleans. They are playing over their heads on emotion. Only time will tell how long this wave will carry them.

 

[JD_KaPow]

If this team gets to 5-0, with the Giants likely at 3-2, Commanders at 2-2 and Eagles at 1-3, it is going to be awful difficult for teams to catch up. I guess I'd give the Giants an outside chance.

I don't understand this at all. We play 5 division games in the last 9. Those are the meaningful games, and the tough ones. There's plenty of opportunity for NFCE teams to catch up.

I kinda wish we had early games against the Eagles, in particular. I still think they'll get their act together and be very tough later in the season.

 

[peplaw06]

The Tuna made a good point the other day re: Green Bay. The Packers can't run the ball. Therefore, when the weather gets cold and the winds start howling in Lambeau, they're going to have problems. I expect them to struggle the last 3-4 games or so at home.

All that said, I think Green Bay loses this week to Chicago.

 

[Idgit]

I don't know. That's a pretty good golf club, they got up there in Wisconsin.

Wow. I was going to type this almost verbatim.

 

[BBQ101]

I don't understand this at all. We play 5 division games in the last 9. Those are the meaningful games, and the tough ones. There's plenty of opportunity for NFCE teams to catch up.

I kinda wish we had early games against the Eagles, in particular. I still think they'll get their act together and be very tough later in the season.

I think the Eagles have a really good chance to completely self distruct this season. McNabb can no longer do what he did best (avoid the rush and make a play) and now must somehow become a good pocket passer (is he suddenly going to become accurate?). Also, that offense looks totaly anemic withough Westbrook who is getting older and more prone to injury, especially since he is their focal point. That offense was pethetic against the Giants when Westbrook was out.

Still, you have a point, The eagles have played against teams that are a combined 11 and 4. They still have plenty of time to put someting together.

Having 5 divisional games in the last 9 is huge though. We should control our own destiny though, and we hopefully can get healthy by that time.

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