Football Outsiders DVOA: We're number... 14?

[Chocolate Lab]

http://footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2008/week-15-dvoa-ratings

I haven't checked FO's DVOA rankings in a while, so I thought I see where they had us. Unless I'm reading the above link wrong, and I don't think I am, we're #14, behind such powerhouses as the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers.

What am I missing? Because I don't remember these rankings being so goofy before.

BTW, guess who the #1 and #2 teams are? That's right, Philly and Baltimore. And the Giants are 4 and the Steelers 5. So as of today, we're playing four of the top five teams in the NFL in our final four games. This December schedule truly has been and continues to be brutal.

 

[joseephuss]

Philly is the best team even when they lose games according to DVOA. That is why stats are nice, but there is not be all, end all stat that can best described what actually happens on the field.

Aikman's efficiency ratings have Dallas rated 14th in offense(8th according to the NFL) and 10th in defense(7th by NFL standards).

http://troyaikman.wordpress.com/category/aikman-efficiency-ratings/

 

[theogt]

It might have something to do with our offensive efficiency for those 3 games with Brad Johnson. It was absolutely abysmal, like off the charts bad.

But they've consistently stated that their formulas can't figure out why Tony is so good so consistently, and they've referred to his 3rd down ability as "luck."

Oh, and they stated about a month ago that there was zero chance we make the playoffs.

 

[Shinywalrus]

Their stats don't adjust out circumstances and personnel in a way that makes them very useful, and they vastly favor West Coast offenses and Cover 2 defenses.

Philly and Tampa Bay are ALWAYS around their top 10, regardless of how they're doing, as a result.

They do recognize, indirectly, the manner in which their system and statistics may ignore fundamental changes in personnel or injury circumstances, by including a variance statistic for their primary efficiency score. If you look at this, you can see how different most of the actual games' DVOA score has been from the calculated average.

In Dallas' case, the DVOA is more volatile than any other team in the league with the exception of Oakland. While that might ordinarily mean that we're just more boom-and-busty, here, I suspect here that it's pointing pretty clearly to a streak of games where we vastly underperformed our average level of performance.

I think if you adjusted out those games, we'd probably be in the top 6 or 7, which given that our offense hasn't been clicking as much as of late, seems about right for a statistical model.

 

[InmanRoshi]

They admit their models are biased towards the Eagles, have been for years. They haven't quite figured out why the Eagles arent as good on the field as their statistical models say they should be.

 

[theebs]

these wonderful stats are right in line with KC joyners stats that tell him Demarcus ware is a pretender and only gets sack when games are over and not at important times.

Football outsiders are useless. Its all fodder for bloggers.

 

[kramskoi]

It might have something to do with our offensive efficiency for those 3 games with Brad Johnson. It was absolutely abysmal, like off the charts bad.

But they've consistently stated that their formulas can't figure out why Tony is so good so consistently, and they've referred to his 3rd down ability as "luck."

Oh, and they stated about a month ago that there was zero chance we make the playoffs.

precisely...but i lifted this off FO:


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I'm not sure why they won't discuss it (well, I have my ideas on why), but the numbers are roughly as follows (not acccounting for how eliminating those 3 games would change everyone else's averages too, but we do what we can):

Dallas DVOA, minus the Brad Johnson Experience:
Total DVOA: 21.82%
Offense DVOA: 20.99%
Defense DVOA: -5.61%
ST DVOA: -4.75%

That would put Dallas 6th, behind PIT and ahead of CAR, which sounds just about right for the season (of course, they would seem to be on the upswing now). Surprisingly the Offense number would top the NFL, while they'd be 9th in Defense.
========================================================

So without the BJ experience, it seems the Cowboys would be among the six best teams in the league.

 

[kramskoi]

It might have something to do with our offensive efficiency for those 3 games with Brad Johnson. It was absolutely abysmal, like off the charts bad.

But they've consistently stated that their formulas can't figure out why Tony is so good so consistently, and they've referred to his 3rd down ability as "luck."

Oh, and they stated about a month ago that there was zero chance we make the playoffs.

Dallas once again leads the league on third down and Romo does have a lot to do with it. But just think what happens if the o-line can clean up the pre-snap penalities and keep the offense out of 1st/2nd and 20's...the Cowboys stop themselves as much as opposing defenses do.

If rankings are your thing then Dallas, beating both Baltimore and Philadelphia, will probably rise to their rightful place in the final computations, though it still won't account for the BJ experience...oh, and they will have made the playoffs, much to the consternation of FO.

 

[Temo]

Dallas once again leads the league on third down and Romo does have a lot to do with it. But just think what happens if the o-line can clean up the pre-snap penalities and keep the offense out of 1st/2nd and 20's...the Cowboys stop themselves as much as opposing defenses do.

If rankings are your thing then Dallas, beating both Baltimore and Philadelphia, will probably rise to their rightful place in the final computations, though it still won't account for the BJ experience...oh, and they will have made the playoffs, much to the consternation of FO.

Despite what you may think, FO (for all their faults) does not hate Dallas and would not be perturbed to see Dallas make the playoffs.

 

[Shinywalrus]

Despite what you may think, FO (for all their faults) does not hate Dallas and would not be perturbed to see Dallas make the playoffs.

It will just give them one less "right prediction" to cherry pick out of all the wrong ones and put on the front cover of PFP 2009, so probably not consternation, but mild disappointment, I'd say.

FO at least has the right idea - that simple stats are incredibly misleading - the problem is that their own stats don't work very well. If you look over time, simple YPA and PPY on both sides of the ball tend to be as instructive and explanatory as any of the "advanced stats" they construct. More power to them, though.

 

[kramskoi]

Despite what you may think, FO (for all their faults) does not hate Dallas and would not be perturbed to see Dallas make the playoffs.

i don't think they hate Dallas AT ALL and i'm quite enamored with their rating system. I think it's the best statistical football engine in football...coldhardfootballfacts.com may take issue with it but i'm just poking a little fun at them that's all...their premium database is particularly informative.