Football Outsiders' playoff simulation

[AdamJT13]

Football Outsiders used their current weighted DVOA statistics to simulate the playoffs 20,000 times. Weighted DVOA takes into account the results of every play of every game and takes into account the strength of the opponents, with extra weight given to recent games over games earlier in the season.

According to their simulations, the team with the best chance to win this weekend out of the four games being played is ... the Dallas Cowboys -- at 73.7 percent. They also say we have the best chance to make it to the Super Bowl, at 43.7 percent. The Patriots have the best chance of winning the Super Bowl, though, at 28.0 percent. We're second at 17.0 percent.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php

Here are their current winning percentages, based on 20,000 simulations --

This week's games (percentages might not add up to 100 because of rounding) --
DAL 73.7%
NYG 26.2%

GB 67.6%
SEA 32.3%

NE 61.9%
JAC 38.0%

IND 61.1%
SD 38.8%

Chances of reaching the Super Bowl --
DAL 43.7%
NE 41.5%
JAC 23.1%
GB 29.5%
IND 20.6%
SD 14.5%
SEA 13.6%
NYG 13.0%

Chances of winning the Super Bowl --
NE 28.0%
DAL 17.0%
JAC 13.8%
GB 12.1%
IND 11.1%
SD 8.6%
SEA 5.3%
NYG 3.7%


Of course, this doesn't mean we'll definitely win, or that we'll win easily. But it probably means that if we play up to our normal performance, we have a very good chance of winning Sunday (and beyond).

And in case you're wondering, their simulations went 3-1 last week, missing only the Giants-Bucs game.

 

[CowboyBlog]

Football Outsiders used their current weighted DVOA statistics to simulate the playoffs 20,000 times. Weighted DVOA takes into account the results of every play of every game and takes into account the strength of the opponents, with extra weight given to recent games over games earlier in the season.

According to their simulations, the team with the best chance to win this weekend out of the four games being played is ... the Dallas Cowboys -- at 73.7 percent. They also say we have the best chance to make it to the Super Bowl, at 43.7 percent. The Patriots have the best chance of winning the Super Bowl, though, at 28.0 percent. We're second at 17.0 percent.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php

Here are their current winning percentages, based on 20,000 simulations --

This week's games (percentages might not add up to 100 because of rounding) --
DAL 73.7%
NYG 26.2%

GB 67.6%
SEA 32.3%

NE 61.9%
JAC 38.0%

IND 61.1%
SD 38.8%

Chances of reaching the Super Bowl --
DAL 43.7%
NE 41.5%
JAC 23.1%
GB 29.5%
IND 20.6%
SD 14.5%
SEA 13.6%
NYG 13.0%

Chances of winning the Super Bowl --
NE 28.0%
DAL 17.0%
JAC 13.8%
GB 12.1%
IND 11.1%
SD 8.6%
SEA 5.3%
NYG 3.7%


Of course, this doesn't mean we'll definitely win, or that we'll win easily. But it probably means that if we play up to our normal performance, we have a very good chance of winning Sunday (and beyond).

And in case you're wondering, their simulations went 3-1 last week, missing only the Giants-Bucs game.

How can we have a better chance of reaching the superbowl, but New England has a better chance of winning the superbowl? I'm not a mathmatician and I didn't stay at a holiday inn express last night, but I dont think that is possible.

Where are the math guys?

 

[Cowboy from New York]

How can we have a better chance of reaching the superbowl, but New England has a better chance of winning the superbowl? I'm not a mathmatician and I didn't stay at a holiday inn express last night, but I dont think that is possible.

Where are the math guys?

I would imagine its due to the fact that the Pats in all likelyhood will have to play the defending champions first to get to the SB.

 

[ctalker]

Interesting stuff, wonder if they take into account injuries. guess the extra weight to recent games could factor this into the equation.

 

[Eddie]

Chances of reaching the Super Bowl --
DAL 43.7%
GB 29.5%
SEA 13.6%
NYG 13.0%

Someone check my math, but this doesn't equal 100%.

Some sportswriter slept through remedial math.

 

[superpunk]

Chances of reaching the Super Bowl --
DAL 43.7%
GB 29.5%
SEA 13.6%
NYG 13.0%

Someone check my math, but this doesn't equal 100%.

Some sportswriter slept through remedial math.

Adam even bolded it for you.

(percentages might not add up to 100 because of rounding) --

 

[Bryan8284]

Chances of reaching the Super Bowl --
DAL 43.7%
GB 29.5%
SEA 13.6%
NYG 13.0%

Someone check my math, but this doesn't equal 100%.

Some sportswriter slept through remedial math.

It's 99.8%. Lost two tenths in rounding.

 

[ndanger]

Chances of reaching the Super Bowl --
DAL 43.7%
GB 29.5%
SEA 13.6%
NYG 13.0%

Someone check my math, but this doesn't equal 100%.

Some sportswriter slept through remedial math.

Some forum poster slept through reading comprehension.

 

[jdnoyes]

How can we have a better chance of reaching the superbowl, but New England has a better chance of winning the superbowl? I'm not a mathmatician and I didn't stay at a holiday inn express last night, but I dont think that is possible.

Where are the math guys?

I would say it means we have an easier road to get there than New England does (according to the simulation), but if they get there and face Dallas they have a pretty good shot to win.

 

[Eddie]

It's 99.8%. Lost two tenths in rounding.

My bad. Fat fingered error on my calculator.

 

[adbutcher]

Some forum poster slept through reading comprehension.

:laugh2:

 

[AdamJT13]

How can we have a better chance of reaching the superbowl, but New England has a better chance of winning the superbowl? I'm not a mathmatician and I didn't stay at a holiday inn express last night, but I dont think that is possible.

Where are the math guys?

They're saying that if the Patriots make it to the Super Bowl, they have a 67.5 percent chance of beating the NFC representative. But if we make it, we have only a 38.9 percent chance of beating the AFC representative. The Patriots just have tougher competition to beat to get there (Jaguars, then Colts or Chargers) than we do (Giants, then Packers or Seahawks).

 

[Rampage]

My bad. Fat fingered error on my calculator.

you should know better when entering the great presence such as an adam stat thread. SHAME ON YOU! sarcasm off

 

[Brad0Walker]

Its possible, that percentage is pretty much saying that we will probably make it but, if we have to play new england, we will surely lose.

 

[Dave_in-NC]

Dayum, no need to play the games. I could have saved my self a wad of cash this weekend.

 

[sonnyboy]

Its possible, that percentage is pretty much saying that we will probably make it but, if we have to play new england, we will surely lose.

Not surely lose, most likely lose.
Love this thread.
Starting to think something was wrong with me considering the level of confidence I have in this giants game as I read forecast after forecast of our demise.

 

[burmafrd]

If we and the Pats both make it to the SB, it will really hinge on who is healthier with their Key players. That is where we are in trouble since TO will not be 100% even that far down the road. However, if TG comes back stronger then many think, that will balance out. I like our chances against NE; by the time we play them, that old LB core will be dragging big time. And TG and TO both threats to go deep will mean that Witten will often be 1 on 1, as will crayton- and I like those odds. The big factor in that game will be how much pressure we can get on Brady.

 

[Idgit]

This thread explains so much.

 

[jterrell]

To me that all makes a ton of sense.

It isn't a guarantee by any means but it is suggesting taking these teams at their season's average performance considering all real stat-related factors then Dallas is far superior.

I didn't need anything more than the two double digit wins to know that but it is interesting to see is extrapolated out as such.