News: Football Outsiders' SackSEER: Evaluating Potential Edge Rushers In 2016 Draft

[CCBoy]

Football Outsiders' SackSEER: Evaluating Potential Edge Rushers In 2016 Draft


http://www.dallascowboys.com/news/2016/04/08/cowboys’-annual-dallas-day-workout-included-nearly-40-draft-prospects

A few years back, the fine folks at Football Outsiders introduced us to SackSEER, a regression-based formula developed to predict the NFL success of edge rushers selected in the NFL Draft.

The current formula ( it seems to change on an almost yearly basis) is based on five metrics:

• an explosion index combining forty-yard dash, vertical jump and broad jump results
• a prospect's three-cone drill results
• adjusted sacks per game in college (with some playing time adjustments)
• passes defensed per college game played
• number of medical redshirts the player either received or for which he was eligible

Additionally, the formula incorporates an edge rusher's projected draft position (per NFL Draft Scout). This is a very interesting addition as the formula now includes a scouting element, where previously it was almost exclusively a stat-based metric.

On Tuesday, Football Outsiders published their SackSEER numbers for college edge rushers in the 2016 NFL Draft class. SackSEER is not the be-all and end-all of statistical analysis, and FO themselves have argued that it is more accurate at identifying busts than it is at singling out potential stars, but it is definitely worth a detailed look. Which is exactly what we'll do today.

If you're not familiar with SackSEER, here's a brief outline of how it works: Using the metrics outlined above, the SackSEER formula projects each prospect's total sacks through five NFL seasons. Although there are always outliers in the individual projections, when accumulating all the individual numbers, FO have found that the formula projects sack production about three times more accurately than simply going by a player's draft position within the first two rounds.

...***large snip***...

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Kevin Dodd...9%...ouch

 

[StarBoyz83]

It sucks we get a 4th round pick and none of the edge rushers really stick out.

 

[DFWJC]

Was hoping Kaufusi would fall to the early 4th.
Not happening. Pipe dream

 

[btcutter]

Better measuring stick should be TFL which includes sacks and not just sacks alone I believe.

 

[Cowboy06]

It sucks we get a 4th round pick and none of the edge rushers really stick out.

players and positions fall each year without any real reason. There may be a run on QBs or WRs in round 2 or 3 and that would push down some pass rushers to round 4. Yet, overall I agree with you 100%

 

[CCBoy]

It sucks we get a 4th round pick and none of the edge rushers really stick out.

Wonder where the calculated index would have stood upon Minnesota walk-on and future Hall of Famer, John Randle...he was too slow, too small, and too unexciting, except he wouldn't stop hustling and hitting people at the professional levels

 

[BigStar]

[Joey Bosa, Ohio State
SackSEER Projection: 26.8 Sacks through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 87.8%

SackSEER expects Joey Bosa to have a strong NFL career, but the system feels he is somewhat overrated as a possible No. 1 overall selection.

With 26 sacks in three years, Bosa had good production at Ohio State. Although Bosa's sack total dropped off in his junior season, it's not uncommon for a strong edge-rusher prospect to record fewer sacks after a successful year, due to increased double-teams. Bosa also had an impressive 6.89-second 3-cone time, which is the second-best among all of the edge rushers at this year's NFL combine.

However, Bosa's explosion numbers were a little below average: he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.86 seconds, had a vertical leap of 33 inches, and had a 10-foot broad jump. Edge rushers with those types of explosion numbers have certainly been successful before, but none have ever been drafted in the top five. It adds up to Bosa being a below-average "top-five prospect."

"The slowest edge rusher drafted in the top five since 1998 was Chris Long, who ran a 4.75 40-yard dash, which is a tenth of a second faster than Bosa's. Additionally, Bosa's passes defensed rate is firmly average for a drafted edge rusher; he is a far cry from players such as Julius Peppers or Ezekiel Ansah, who were as good at knocking down passes as they were at knocking down quarterbacks. Overall, SackSEER projects Bosa to be a solid, but not spectacular player."]

Thanks for the interesting topic and information CC; not set in stone but good info like you said. I'm starting to come down to anyone but Bosa camp. Will be a good player, but not a good pick at 4 and moving Lawrence to RE.

 

[BigStar]

Wonder where the calculated index would have stood upon Minnesota walk-on and future Hall of Famer, John Randle...he was too slow, too small, and too unexciting, except he wouldn't stop hustling and hitting people at the professional levels

Also true, some guys "make it work" and are just good football players despite measurements. Montana is probably the biggest one I can think of off the top of my head. Wilson has to stay in the pocket more while also learn to throw deep down the field w/o improvisation involved. They are not even close in terms of ability yet, but using him as a decent modern example and the WCO type of O they run in the passing game in SEA.

 

[JD_KaPow]

For what it's worth, SackSEER hated DeMarcus Lawrence and very much liked Randy Gregory.

 

[CCBoy]

Also true, some guys "make it work" and are just good football players despite measurements. Montana is probably the biggest one I can think of off the top of my head. Wilson has to stay in the pocket more while also learn to throw deep down the field w/o improvisation involved. They are not even close in terms of ability yet, but using him as a decent modern example and the WCO type of O they run in the passing game in SEA.

When San Francisco won the NFC Championship game back in 1994, they still had a very good team. Many here, will tell you that the Cowboys lost due to Jimmy Johnson leaving and Barry Switzer being a bumbling idiot...just not true.

 

[CCBoy]

For what it's worth, SackSEER hated DeMarcus Lawrence and very much liked Randy Gregory.

Neither of those two horses have run the race yet...to be Kentucky Derby favorites.

 

[BigStar]

When San Francisco won the NFC Championship game back in 1994, they still had a very good team. Many here, will tell you that the Cowboys lost due to Jimmy Johnson leaving and Barry Switzer being a bumbling idiot...just not true.

It was a hard fought game and we put ourselves in that hole to need to catch up. That can't all be on Switzer. Then the controversial Deion-Irvin PI no call where Irvin was mugged, Emmitt's ineffectiveness that game, etc.

 

[CCBoy]

It was a hard fought game and we put ourselves in that hole to need to catch up. That can't all be on Switzer. Then the controversial Deion-Irvin PI no call where Irvin was mugged, Emmitt's ineffectiveness that game, etc.

Sir, calling it as one really sees things is a pedigree of ethics. Good memory.

 

[speedkilz88]

It was a hard fought game and we put ourselves in that hole to need to catch up. That can't all be on Switzer. Then the controversial Deion-Irvin PI no call where Irvin was mugged, Emmitt's ineffectiveness that game, etc.

Undisciplined teams turn the ball over more. That is how they got into that hole. Switzer also blew any chance at a come back when he bumped the ref after a no call PI on Deion.

 

[BigStar]

Undisciplined teams turn the ball over more. That is how they got into that hole. Switzer also blew any chance at a come back when he bumped the ref after a no call PI on Deion.

Aikman was the one to throw the first pick/commit TO that was returned for a TD? I get your point but we could have started stronger...

 

[CCBoy]

Aikman was the one to throw the first pick/commit TO that was returned for a TD? I get your point but we could have started stronger...

lol, and any team going three Lombardis in a row, has not ever happened in the NFL. The Cowboys still did three in four years. Almost four...

 

[SHAMSzy]

Ogbah at 34 would be nice

 

[reddyuta]

No Offense but this Sackseer is total ********.