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http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...-williams-sleeper-rb-prospects-2015-nfl-draft
Using Football Outsiders' size-speed model to project NFL running backs
Speed Score results from the 2015 NFL scouting combine suggest that this is a good year for running back prospects, but by no means a historic one. One of this year's top prospects impressed, one did not. We now have a surprising sleeper with the top Speed Score of this year's combine, and another player so slow he pretty much disqualified himself from being considered draftable.
Let's take a look at this year's results:
Introduced on ESPN Insider back in 2008, Speed Score is Football Outsiders' metric for evaluating running back prospects. It's built on the simple idea that because smaller backs tend to run faster than larger backs, we should be more impressed by a 4.5-second 40-yard dash from a 220-pound back than the same clock reading from a 170-pound back. As such, Speed Score incorporates a back's official time in the 40-yard dash with his weight to produce a measure of his speed given his size using the formula (Weight * 200)/(40 time^4). The average running back who makes it to the NFL will have a Speed Score around 100, with most running back prospects falling between 85 and 110. And since there are more running backs in the prospect pool each year than there are spaces in the NFL, there are more running backs each year under 100 than over 100.
Obviously, Speed Score is not a perfect measurement. It doesn't account for a back's agility, or his ability to read holes, or his receiving ability. Nonetheless, it has been a good guide as to which running backs are likely to have more or less success in the NFL based on their draft positions.
Any excitement over this year's Speed Scores is at least somewhat dimmed by the fact that two of Scouts Inc.'s top four prospects did not run the 40 at the combine. So unfortunately, we don't have a Speed Score for either Todd Gurley of Georgia or Tevin Coleman of Indiana. But we do have scores for the other two backs expected to go early: Melvin Gordon of Wisconsin and Ameer Abdullah of Nebraska.
Gordon puts up a solid number
Gordon ran his 40 in 4.52 seconds at 215 pounds, for a Speed Score of 103.0. That ended up as the fifth-highest score in this year's class, though it certainly doesn't match the average score of a first-round running back over the past decade, which is around 110.
Abdullah's size-speed combo a disappointment
The same can't be said of Abdullah, who ran his 40 in 4.60 seconds. At 205 pounds, he's one of the smaller backs in this year's draft. That leads to a Speed Score of just 91.6, which pegs Abdullah as a lower-round pick. However, I will note that what Abdullah doesn't have in terms of straight-line speed, he makes up for in agility. Abdullah's short shuttle time of 3.95 seconds was the best among halfbacks at this year's combine, and his three-cone time of 6.79 seconds was near the top (and compares well to Gordon's time of 7.04 seconds). Other researchers have suggested that a Speed Score that incorporated these drills would be a better predictor of NFL success, and such a system would certainly rate Abdullah as a better prospect.
FSU's Williams could be the RB class' top sleeper
The best Speed Score of the 2015 combine belongs to a sleeper prospect, Karlos Williams of Florida State. Williams ran a 4.48 40 at 230 pounds, and his Speed Score of 114.2 was the only one above 110 at this year's combine. Williams is a favorite of Football Outsiders scouting writer Matt Waldman, who covered Williams in this piece, and he's the brother of Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Vince Williams. Karlos is a former five-star recruit who played safety originally, then gradually transitioned to running back in his 2013 junior season, averaging 8.0 yards per carry (730 yards and 11 touchdowns on only 91 carries). However, he disappointed a bit with only 4.6 yards per carry as a full-time running back in 2014, and has had some off-the-field issues that teams will need to consider.
NIU's Johnson and MSU's Langford are also worth a look
Other top Speed Scores this season belonged to Northern Iowa's David Johnson (109.3, Scouts Inc.'s No. 12 RB prospect) and Michigan State's Jeremy Langford (109.0, Scouts Inc.'s No. 9 RB prospect). Speed Scores the past couple years have actually backed the movement away from drafting running backs in the first round. Remember how I noted that the average Speed Score of a first-round back is around 110? Only two backs at last year's combine topped a Speed Score of 110 (Damien Williams and Jerick McKinnon), and Karlos Williams was the only player to do it this year.
Bad news for CSU's Hart
On the bottom of this year's list is Dee Hart of Colorado State, who ran the 40 at just 4.80 seconds despite weighing less than 200 pounds, for a Speed Score of 75.0. Hart is only the third pure halfback since 2009 with a Speed Score below 80.0; Robbie Rouse of Fresno State and Ray Graham of Pitt are the other two, both from the 2013 combine, and both went undrafted. (Dexter McCluster also put up a Speed Score of 75.0 back in 2010, but he's a wide receiver/halfback hybrid, and at 165 pounds, he was more than 30 pounds lighter than Hart.)
Hart wasn't a highly regarded prospect, by any means -- Scouts Inc.'s running back rankings have him 23rd in this year's class -- but his 40 performance should scare away any team that was thinking of using even a late-round pick on him.
2015 Speed Scores
Player/School..........................................Weight............40YD.................Speed
Karlos Williams/Florida St.........................230................4.48...................114.2
David Johnson/Northern Iowa..................224................4.50...................109.3
Jeremy Langford/Michigan St. .................208................4.42...................109.0
Javorius Allen/USC...................................221................4.53...................105.0
Melvin Gordon/Wisconsin..........................215................4.52...................103.0
Matt Jones/Florida.....................................231................4.61...................102.3
Jay Ajayi/Boise St. ....................................221................4.57...................101.3
Cameron Artis-Payne/Auburn...................212................4.53...................100.7
T.J. Yeldon/Alabama.................................226................4.61...................100.1
Michael Dyer/Louisville..............................218................4.58....................99.1
Malcolm Brown/Texas...............................224................4.62....................98.3
Duke Johnson/Miami.................................207................4.54....................97.4
Mike Davis/South Carolina........................217................4.61....................96.1
Trey Williams/Texas A&M.........................195................4.49....................96.0
John Crockett/North Dakota St. ...............217................4.62....................95.3
Thomas Rawls/Central Michigan..............215................4.65....................92.0
Ameer Abdullah/Nebraska........................205................4.60....................91.6
Josh Robinson/Mississippi St. ..................217................4.70....................88.9
Gus Johnson/Stephen F. Austin................215................4.70...................88.1
Braylon Heard/Kentucky...........................198.................4.63...................86.2
Marcus Murphy/Missouri...........................193.................4.61...................85.5
B.J. Catalon/TCU......................................186................4.57....................85.3
Kenny Hilliard/LSU....................................226................4.83....................83.1
Jahwan Edwards/Ball St. .........................220................4.80....................82.9
Dee Hart/Colorado St. .............................199................4.80....................75.0
Did not run 40: Dominique Brown, David Cobb, Tevin Coleman, Todd Gurley, Terrence Magee.
Using Football Outsiders' size-speed model to project NFL running backs
Speed Score results from the 2015 NFL scouting combine suggest that this is a good year for running back prospects, but by no means a historic one. One of this year's top prospects impressed, one did not. We now have a surprising sleeper with the top Speed Score of this year's combine, and another player so slow he pretty much disqualified himself from being considered draftable.
Let's take a look at this year's results:
Introduced on ESPN Insider back in 2008, Speed Score is Football Outsiders' metric for evaluating running back prospects. It's built on the simple idea that because smaller backs tend to run faster than larger backs, we should be more impressed by a 4.5-second 40-yard dash from a 220-pound back than the same clock reading from a 170-pound back. As such, Speed Score incorporates a back's official time in the 40-yard dash with his weight to produce a measure of his speed given his size using the formula (Weight * 200)/(40 time^4). The average running back who makes it to the NFL will have a Speed Score around 100, with most running back prospects falling between 85 and 110. And since there are more running backs in the prospect pool each year than there are spaces in the NFL, there are more running backs each year under 100 than over 100.
Obviously, Speed Score is not a perfect measurement. It doesn't account for a back's agility, or his ability to read holes, or his receiving ability. Nonetheless, it has been a good guide as to which running backs are likely to have more or less success in the NFL based on their draft positions.
Any excitement over this year's Speed Scores is at least somewhat dimmed by the fact that two of Scouts Inc.'s top four prospects did not run the 40 at the combine. So unfortunately, we don't have a Speed Score for either Todd Gurley of Georgia or Tevin Coleman of Indiana. But we do have scores for the other two backs expected to go early: Melvin Gordon of Wisconsin and Ameer Abdullah of Nebraska.
Gordon puts up a solid number
Gordon ran his 40 in 4.52 seconds at 215 pounds, for a Speed Score of 103.0. That ended up as the fifth-highest score in this year's class, though it certainly doesn't match the average score of a first-round running back over the past decade, which is around 110.
Abdullah's size-speed combo a disappointment
The same can't be said of Abdullah, who ran his 40 in 4.60 seconds. At 205 pounds, he's one of the smaller backs in this year's draft. That leads to a Speed Score of just 91.6, which pegs Abdullah as a lower-round pick. However, I will note that what Abdullah doesn't have in terms of straight-line speed, he makes up for in agility. Abdullah's short shuttle time of 3.95 seconds was the best among halfbacks at this year's combine, and his three-cone time of 6.79 seconds was near the top (and compares well to Gordon's time of 7.04 seconds). Other researchers have suggested that a Speed Score that incorporated these drills would be a better predictor of NFL success, and such a system would certainly rate Abdullah as a better prospect.
FSU's Williams could be the RB class' top sleeper
The best Speed Score of the 2015 combine belongs to a sleeper prospect, Karlos Williams of Florida State. Williams ran a 4.48 40 at 230 pounds, and his Speed Score of 114.2 was the only one above 110 at this year's combine. Williams is a favorite of Football Outsiders scouting writer Matt Waldman, who covered Williams in this piece, and he's the brother of Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Vince Williams. Karlos is a former five-star recruit who played safety originally, then gradually transitioned to running back in his 2013 junior season, averaging 8.0 yards per carry (730 yards and 11 touchdowns on only 91 carries). However, he disappointed a bit with only 4.6 yards per carry as a full-time running back in 2014, and has had some off-the-field issues that teams will need to consider.
NIU's Johnson and MSU's Langford are also worth a look
Other top Speed Scores this season belonged to Northern Iowa's David Johnson (109.3, Scouts Inc.'s No. 12 RB prospect) and Michigan State's Jeremy Langford (109.0, Scouts Inc.'s No. 9 RB prospect). Speed Scores the past couple years have actually backed the movement away from drafting running backs in the first round. Remember how I noted that the average Speed Score of a first-round back is around 110? Only two backs at last year's combine topped a Speed Score of 110 (Damien Williams and Jerick McKinnon), and Karlos Williams was the only player to do it this year.
Bad news for CSU's Hart
On the bottom of this year's list is Dee Hart of Colorado State, who ran the 40 at just 4.80 seconds despite weighing less than 200 pounds, for a Speed Score of 75.0. Hart is only the third pure halfback since 2009 with a Speed Score below 80.0; Robbie Rouse of Fresno State and Ray Graham of Pitt are the other two, both from the 2013 combine, and both went undrafted. (Dexter McCluster also put up a Speed Score of 75.0 back in 2010, but he's a wide receiver/halfback hybrid, and at 165 pounds, he was more than 30 pounds lighter than Hart.)
Hart wasn't a highly regarded prospect, by any means -- Scouts Inc.'s running back rankings have him 23rd in this year's class -- but his 40 performance should scare away any team that was thinking of using even a late-round pick on him.
2015 Speed Scores
Player/School..........................................Weight............40YD.................Speed
Karlos Williams/Florida St.........................230................4.48...................114.2
David Johnson/Northern Iowa..................224................4.50...................109.3
Jeremy Langford/Michigan St. .................208................4.42...................109.0
Javorius Allen/USC...................................221................4.53...................105.0
Melvin Gordon/Wisconsin..........................215................4.52...................103.0
Matt Jones/Florida.....................................231................4.61...................102.3
Jay Ajayi/Boise St. ....................................221................4.57...................101.3
Cameron Artis-Payne/Auburn...................212................4.53...................100.7
T.J. Yeldon/Alabama.................................226................4.61...................100.1
Michael Dyer/Louisville..............................218................4.58....................99.1
Malcolm Brown/Texas...............................224................4.62....................98.3
Duke Johnson/Miami.................................207................4.54....................97.4
Mike Davis/South Carolina........................217................4.61....................96.1
Trey Williams/Texas A&M.........................195................4.49....................96.0
John Crockett/North Dakota St. ...............217................4.62....................95.3
Thomas Rawls/Central Michigan..............215................4.65....................92.0
Ameer Abdullah/Nebraska........................205................4.60....................91.6
Josh Robinson/Mississippi St. ..................217................4.70....................88.9
Gus Johnson/Stephen F. Austin................215................4.70...................88.1
Braylon Heard/Kentucky...........................198.................4.63...................86.2
Marcus Murphy/Missouri...........................193.................4.61...................85.5
B.J. Catalon/TCU......................................186................4.57....................85.3
Kenny Hilliard/LSU....................................226................4.83....................83.1
Jahwan Edwards/Ball St. .........................220................4.80....................82.9
Dee Hart/Colorado St. .............................199................4.80....................75.0
Did not run 40: Dominique Brown, David Cobb, Tevin Coleman, Todd Gurley, Terrence Magee.
