Four stats that will determine if this team is better or not

[Bobhaze]

Point differential is my favorite stat...

It can be a good indicator.

 

[gtb1943]

We may have been dead last in starting position too, any improvement would be appreciated

and we brought back the ST coach that was responsible

 

[Bobhaze]

There's only one stat. Wins and losses when it matters most.

Right - but before chalking up a win, we should also know if you’re ahead at the half it means you have a 75% chance of winning…I care about that one too.

Or the stat that shows if you’re ahead going into the 4th qtr, you have a 90% chance of winning is worth being aware of.

The last two seasons, we’ve been behind going into the 4th qtr 21 of 34 games, going 2-18-1 in those games.

I understand “there’s only one stat that matters”. But to get to the win you better not make it a consistent habit of falling behind or you end up 14-19-1 after two years like we have.

 

[JBS]

If we score first, have the lead at halftime, have the lead going into the 4q, and we have the leader after 4q, I would say we are pretty good shape

 

[Xizor]

Which is why it is more important to receive the KO.
I remover a few years back. Many fans would go ballistic we did not start on defense. Knowing our defense sucked and would give up a score.

It is not all that important to receive the 2nd half KO.

Now if our Defesne becomes like the 85 Beads or the 2000 Ravens then yeah, maybe think that way.
But right now we have one of the best offenses in the NFL.
So improve on getting a TD opening drive.

Yeah there was a two to three year trend where they started doing this to get the ball in the second half but seemed last year that trend started to fade a bit more.

 

[Xizor]

If we are truly a better, more competitive team in 2026, here are 4 simple statistical areas where we MUST show improvement. These hidden stats are often the difference between good teams, mediocre teams, and bad teams.

1. Score first. (Teams that score first in the NFL win 64% of the time)
2. Have the lead at halftime. (Teams leading at half win 75% of the time)
3. Have the lead going into 4th quarter. (Teams lead going into 4th qtr win 90% of time)
4. Getting defensive stops after scoring; OR not allowing opening drive points in either half. (Not allowing a score after we score OR not allowing a score to start both halves)

WHY is this important? Look at how we played the last two seasons in the above 4 areas:

• Scoring first- In 2024 and ‘25, the Cowboys had a collective record of 14-19-1. We scored first in only 16 of those 34 games. That MUST improve.
• Being ahead at half - In 2024, we trailed at the half 10 times, losing 9 of those games. In 2025, we also trailed at the half 10 times, losing 8, winning 1 (in OT) and tying the other. So in the last 34 games, we have trailed at the half 20 times, losing 17 of them and tie in one, and winning 2. Ouch!
• Leading going into the 4th qtr - In 2024 the Cowboys trailed at the end of the 3rd qtr 11 times, losing 10 of those games, and got outscored 82-28 in 3rd qtrs. In 2025 we also trailed 10 games after 3 qtrs, going 1-8-1 in those games. In the last 34 games, we have trailed going into the 4th qtr 21 times, going 2-18-1 in those games. Wow.
• We must improve defensively by not allowing the opponent to score on their first possessions at the beginning of the game and after halftime. Our defense allowed the opponent to score on their opening drive of the game and the first drive of the 2nd half nearly 60% of the time. Cut that down to about 20-25% and we are vastly improved.

So it’s pretty clear if we improve in the above four areas, this team will be vastly better than the two year record of 14-19-1. If not, another non-playoff year.

We will start learning about this team for real in about a week. Everything leading up to it is either hope or hype. The first game is only approximately 6% of the season so it will take a few games to see new patterns.

92 Cowboys score first 10 out of 16 games so definitely on to something. 2025 Seahawks scored first 11 times including playoffs first.

 

[Blackrain]

If we are truly a better, more competitive team in 2026, here are 4 simple statistical areas where we MUST show improvement. These hidden stats are often the difference between good teams, mediocre teams, and bad teams.

1. Score first. (Teams that score first in the NFL win 64% of the time)
2. Have the lead at halftime. (Teams leading at half win 75% of the time)
3. Have the lead going into 4th quarter. (Teams lead going into 4th qtr win 90% of time)
4. Getting defensive stops after scoring; OR not allowing opening drive points in either half. (Not allowing a score after we score OR not allowing a score to start both halves)

WHY is this important? Look at how we played the last two seasons in the above 4 areas:

• Scoring first- In 2024 and ‘25, the Cowboys had a collective record of 14-19-1. We scored first in only 16 of those 34 games. That MUST improve.
• Being ahead at half - In 2024, we trailed at the half 10 times, losing 9 of those games. In 2025, we also trailed at the half 10 times, losing 8, winning 1 (in OT) and tying the other. So in the last 34 games, we have trailed at the half 20 times, losing 17 of them and tie in one, and winning 2. Ouch!
• Leading going into the 4th qtr - In 2024 the Cowboys trailed at the end of the 3rd qtr 11 times, losing 10 of those games, and got outscored 82-28 in 3rd qtrs. In 2025 we also trailed 10 games after 3 qtrs, going 1-8-1 in those games. In the last 34 games, we have trailed going into the 4th qtr 21 times, going 2-18-1 in those games. Wow.
• We must improve defensively by not allowing the opponent to score on their first possessions at the beginning of the game and after halftime. Our defense allowed the opponent to score on their opening drive of the game and the first drive of the 2nd half nearly 60% of the time. Cut that down to about 20-25% and we are vastly improved.

So it’s pretty clear if we improve in the above four areas, this team will be vastly better than the two year record of 14-19-1. If not, another non-playoff year.

We will start learning about this team for real in about a week. Everything leading up to it is either hope or hype. The first game is only approximately 6% of the season so it will take a few games to see new patterns.

Great post bullet but I'm going to add one more thing.

We need to be one of the least penalized teams in the league rather than our current status of the most penalized in the last 10 years.

If we are one of the least penalized teams I will know the coaches have actually made a difference and there is discipline and accountability and that's where everything starts.

All starts with the coaching if they can't get this tremendous group of talent we have fast-tracked on the same page and playing together we are not going to be successful.

Penalties will tell if this coaching staff is ready for prime time or not in my opinion.

 

[dupree89]

If we score first, have the lead at halftime, have the lead going into the 4q, and we have the leader after 4q, I would say we are pretty good shape

yep. All thats left after that is Jerry's post game presser.

 

[Xizor]

Great post bullet but I'm going to add one more thing.

We need to be one of the least penalized teams in the league rather than our current status of the most penalized in the last 10 years.

If we are one of the least penalized teams I will know the coaches have actually made a difference and there is discipline and accountability and that's where everything starts.

All starts with the coaching if they can't get this tremendous group of talent we have fast-tracked on the same page and playing together we are not going to be successful.

Penalties will tell if this coaching staff is ready for prime time or not in my opinion.

Yep 100 percent and silly turn overs.

 

[Cowboys5217]

Good stuff, Bob.

I think QB sacks are going to be critical this year more than anything other than turnovers generated.

 

[Blackrain]

Yep 100 percent and silly turn overs.

You can't continue to have pre-snap penalties shoot yourself in the foot and turn the ball over.

It becomes way too much to overcome
teams are too close in talent to be making these same stupid mistakes year after year.

I definitely believe when we have coaching staff capable of cleaning up the penalty problem that staff will be able to build a successful team

 

[pitt33]

Ah.....one of the many benefits of having a nasty D.

Seahawks #1 last season in lowest points scored against per game.

Most important statistic in all of football.

Those teams always have great postseasons.

 

[pitt33]

It can be a good indicator.

Didn’t Dallas have that in ‘23 and got smoked by GB?

 

[McKDaddy]

Penalties will determine as much as anything. Presnap penalties that stall drives or extend drives for the other team have really undermined this team for so long.

 

[ghst187]

Updated stat: teams that are ahead at the end of the fourth quarter have won every game until W Mich lost yesterday….lol

 

[rambo2]

If we are truly a better, more competitive team in 2026, here are 4 simple statistical areas where we MUST show improvement. These hidden stats are often the difference between good teams, mediocre teams, and bad teams.

1. Score first. (Teams that score first in the NFL win 64% of the time)
2. Have the lead at halftime. (Teams leading at half win 75% of the time)
3. Have the lead going into 4th quarter. (Teams lead going into 4th qtr win 90% of time)
4. Getting defensive stops after scoring; OR not allowing opening drive points in either half. (Not allowing a score after we score OR not allowing a score to start both halves)

WHY is this important? Look at how we played the last two seasons in the above 4 areas:

• Scoring first- In 2024 and ‘25, the Cowboys had a collective record of 14-19-1. We scored first in only 16 of those 34 games. That MUST improve.
• Being ahead at half - In 2024, we trailed at the half 10 times, losing 9 of those games. In 2025, we also trailed at the half 10 times, losing 8, winning 1 (in OT) and tying the other. So in the last 34 games, we have trailed at the half 20 times, losing 17 of them and tie in one, and winning 2. Ouch!
• Leading going into the 4th qtr - In 2024 the Cowboys trailed at the end of the 3rd qtr 11 times, losing 10 of those games, and got outscored 82-28 in 3rd qtrs. In 2025 we also trailed 10 games after 3 qtrs, going 1-8-1 in those games. In the last 34 games, we have trailed going into the 4th qtr 21 times, going 2-18-1 in those games. Wow.
• We must improve defensively by not allowing the opponent to score on their first possessions at the beginning of the game and after halftime. Our defense allowed the opponent to score on their opening drive of the game and the first drive of the 2nd half nearly 60% of the time. Cut that down to about 20-25% and we are vastly improved.

So it’s pretty clear if we improve in the above four areas, this team will be vastly better than the two year record of 14-19-1. If not, another non-playoff year.

We will start learning about this team for real in about a week. Everything leading up to it is either hope or hype. The first game is only approximately 6% of the season so it will take a few games to see new patterns.

The biggest stat is if they are ahead at the end of the game.

 

[rambo2]

Updated stat: teams that are ahead at the end of the fourth quarter have won every game until W Mich lost yesterday….lol

That's a good one.

 

[kskboys]

Right - but before chalking up a win, we should also know if you’re ahead at the half it means you have a 75% chance of winning…I care about that one too.

Or the stat that shows if you’re ahead going into the 4th qtr, you have a 90% chance of winning is worth being aware of.

The last two seasons, we’ve been behind going into the 4th qtr 21 of 34 games, going 2-18-1 in those games.

I understand “there’s only one stat that matters”. But to get to the win you better not make it a consistent habit of falling behind or you end up 14-19-1 after two years like we have.

Your stats are much better.

 

[maryquality]

Updated stat: teams that are ahead at the end of the fourth quarter have won every game until W Mich lost yesterday….lol

Wasn't that wild?? Never seen such craziness!!

 

[Kwyn]

If we are truly a better, more competitive team in 2026, here are 4 simple statistical areas where we MUST show improvement. These hidden stats are often the difference between good teams, mediocre teams, and bad teams.

1. Score first. (Teams that score first in the NFL win 64% of the time)
2. Have the lead at halftime. (Teams leading at half win 75% of the time)
3. Have the lead going into 4th quarter. (Teams lead going into 4th qtr win 90% of time)
4. Getting defensive stops after scoring; OR not allowing opening drive points in either half. (Not allowing a score after we score OR not allowing a score to start both halves)

WHY is this important? Look at how we played the last two seasons in the above 4 areas:

• Scoring first- In 2024 and ‘25, the Cowboys had a collective record of 14-19-1. We scored first in only 16 of those 34 games. That MUST improve.
• Being ahead at half - In 2024, we trailed at the half 10 times, losing 9 of those games. In 2025, we also trailed at the half 10 times, losing 8, winning 1 (in OT) and tying the other. So in the last 34 games, we have trailed at the half 20 times, losing 17 of them and tie in one, and winning 2. Ouch!
• Leading going into the 4th qtr - In 2024 the Cowboys trailed at the end of the 3rd qtr 11 times, losing 10 of those games, and got outscored 82-28 in 3rd qtrs. In 2025 we also trailed 10 games after 3 qtrs, going 1-8-1 in those games. In the last 34 games, we have trailed going into the 4th qtr 21 times, going 2-18-1 in those games. Wow.
• We must improve defensively by not allowing the opponent to score on their first possessions at the beginning of the game and after halftime. Our defense allowed the opponent to score on their opening drive of the game and the first drive of the 2nd half nearly 60% of the time. Cut that down to about 20-25% and we are vastly improved.

So it’s pretty clear if we improve in the above four areas, this team will be vastly better than the two year record of 14-19-1. If not, another non-playoff year.

We will start learning about this team for real in about a week. Everything leading up to it is either hope or hype. The first game is only approximately 6% of the season so it will take a few games to see new patterns.

Great post Bob. Always enjoy your threads.

Your arguments show why raw stat totals like yards or points don’t tell the whole story. Momentum, clock control and play calling flexibility are all governed more by *when* you score and *how* you score.

A stat that I really started paying attention to last year was red zone touchdown efficiency. It is just what it sounds like, and I think it may be the root behind some of the “must improve” needs in your first three bullets.

The reality is that in the first half, if you’re trading field goals for touchdowns, you can find yourself with halftime scores like 17-9 or 14-6 and then your chasing, you have to open up the offense, you run less and eat up less of the clock.

Look at how the league stacks up when it comes to converting these trips into seven points instead of three, using the top team, us, and the bottom of the barrel.

• Elite: The Eagles led league at 70.2% TD conversion rate. That gets you out in front early, or at least keeps pace if the defense is struggling.
• Average (The Cowboys): We landed dead csnter in 2025 at 56.9% (16th). Being average is a major reason why we struggled to hold onto leads or have a cushion going into the fourth quarter.
• Bad: The Saints were dead last at 44.4%.

When you look at our 2024 season, we were in the gutter. We were second to last at 46%. we couldn’t score first and trailed at halftime way too often.

Last year was an improvement, but it just made us average. Leaving that many points on the table inside the 20-yard line is why we couldn't put teams away, or had a bigger mountain to climb, which shows in those brutal fourth quarter numbers you showed.

Bottom line, while having a weapon like Aubrey is great when we’re at the 35, we dont want to be running him out there when we are at the 10. If we want to be a contender, the best way to solve the problems you mentioned is to get our red zone TD percentage in the 65% range.

Yes, that’s only 5 TDs instead of FGs and a net 20 point improvement over last year but we lost two games by 4 points or less. In both of them, Aubrey kicked a FG in the red zone. A TD might have made a difference. It would have had us tied with the Eagles late in a game we lost and it would have beat Carolina.

Season	2024	2025
RZ TD %	46%	56.9%
Rank	31st	16th
RZ Trips	50	65
RZ TDs	23	37
Field Goals	18	17
4th down fail/Turkovers	9	11