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Quick reads: It's all about the matchups
Aaron Schatz
FootballOutsiders.com
Why do we feel our DPAR stats give a more accurate list of Sunday's best players than standard yards and touchdowns? One big reason is the opponent adjustments, and Week 4 was a great example of this principle in action.
The top quarterbacks this week included Joey Harrington and Matt Schaub, and the top receivers included Michael Jenkins and Andre Davis. How could these players have such huge days? It helps that Houston and Atlanta are each extremely weak at cornerback once you get past Dunta Robinson and DeAngelo Hall.
Dallas won because Tony Romo is playing well, but Dallas won by four touchdowns because Tony Romo got to play against a terrible St. Louis secondary that couldn't keep up with or tackle Patrick Crayton.
Denver got 131 yards from Travis Henry, most of them in just one half, and 81 yards on just eight carries from backup Selvin Young. The Colts got 136 yards from Joseph Addai and another 80 yards on just 10 carries from backup Kenton Keith. Some of this is related to the fact that both teams have strong offensive lines. But two backups combined for 160 yards because neither defense can stop the run.
Unfortunately, it is hard to apply the opponent adjustments early in the year because we don't know exactly how good or bad these defenses really are yet. Are the Giants the team that gave up tons of points in the first two weeks, or the team that sacked Donovan McNabb roughly once every six seconds?
This week we start including opponent adjustments, but they are still only 40 percent strength compared to what they will be after Week 10. Still, it is enough to move Peyton Manning ahead of Romo for the top spot among this week's quarterbacks. Putting up big numbers against Ron Bartell and Lenny Walls isn't quite like putting up big numbers against Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly.
Here are the best and worst players of Week 4 according to the Football Outsiders DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement) statistics. Click here to learn more about what these numbers mean and how they are computed.
Quarterbacks
RkPlayerTeamCP/ATYDSTDINTTotal DPARPass DPARRush DPAR
1.Peyton ManningIND 20/271933013.412.50.9
Having your top receiver (Marvin Harrison) out with a bruised knee is less of a problem when the Denver defense you're facing throws some funky coverages out there. Champ Bailey on Dallas Clark — who is a tight end in name only — is understandable. But Dre' Bly on Aaron Moorehead? Domonique Foxworth trying to cover Reggie Wayne in a zone? A quarterback of Manning's caliber will rip such mismatches to shreds.
2.Tony RomoDAL 21/333393112.211.11.2
Okay, so the Brett Favre comparisons are a bit premature, but something certainly is going on here. Only Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have more value this season according on DPAR. His pocket presence seems positively prodigal for a quarterback with so few starts in the books. Nice improvisation for a 37-yard run to make the best of a bad snap against the Rams, as well.
3.Brett FavreGB 32/453442011.814.3-2.5
What's more impressive — the records that Favre is breaking with every pass, or the idea that No. 4, and the Green Bay team around him, is off to a 4-0 start? Could we be witnessing a second act worthy of John Elway?
4.Joey HarringtonATL 23/29223208.98.90.0
No, this is not a typo. Harrington was very efficient when throwing to Roddy White and Michael Jenkins — you know, the same no-name receivers renowned more for the passes they couldn't catch from their previous quarterback. If Harrington could play against his own team's secondary every week, who knows what he could do?
5.Matt SchaubHOU28/38317107.78.1-0.3
Actually, Matt Schaub knows. Michael Vick's former understudy — and yes, that notion gets more and more humorous every single day — torched an Atlanta defense which ranks 26th against the pass in our DVOA stats. And he did it with a ridiculously banged-up group of receivers. Of course, it's easier when you're going up against a bunch of cornerbacks that need frequent trips to the "time-out chair."
6.Matt HasselbeckSEA23/31281216.96.90.0
7.Jon KitnaDET20/24247206.36.20.0
1,277 down, 3,773 to go. Tune in next week!
8.Trent EdwardsBUF22/28235116.06.00.0
So, how did the Stanford rookie do in his first start? FO's Mike Tanier: "I was highly, highly impressed by Edwards. Great timing on lots of little hitches and curls, good presence in the pocket. He really sliced some passes into tight spots. I don't want to get carried away or anything, but it was as good a first start as any rookie could hope for."
9.Steve McNairBAL35/53307114.85.1-0.3
10.Daunte CulpepperOAK5/1275204.61.72.9
Two passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns from Culpepper, and one really bad Trent Green performance later, it would seem that the Raiders got the best of the Dolphins in the Daunte Culpepper sweepstakes. And when the Raiders have you one-up in a personnel matter, you've got problems beyond an 0-4 start.
11.Jeff GarciaTB15/25176004.42.81.6
12.Kurt WarnerARI14/21132104.44.40.0
People may not understand what Ken Whisenhunt is doing with the Warner/Leinart switcheroo (heck, we don't, either), but Arizona's win over the seemingly dominant Steelers seems to validate the idea so far. Next week, Warner gets to throw some dirt on his old franchise, as he faces the moribund Rams.
13.Matt LeinartARI7/1493004.13.11.0
Of course, the balancing act that Whisenhunt faces is throwing Warner out there long enough to get whatever wins he can get out of the veteran, while keeping Leinart's head up until Warner turns back into a snap-fumbling pumpkin.
14.Derek AndersonCLE10/18204214.04.3-0.4
15.Chad PenningtonNYJ32/39290123.43.30.1
16.Jay CutlerDEN13/21131112.41.01.3
17.Gus FrerotteSTL3/629001.41.40.0
Great quote from Frerotte after the loss to Dallas, as yet another observer suggested that the veteran backup get more snaps in place of a battered and ineffective Marc Bulger: "Why can't they (Rams coaches) see what we see?" Scott Linehan, you appear to be losing your team.
18.Damon HuardKC17/29284220.80.80.0
Huard saved his job for another week, though he should send a thank you card to Chargers defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell.
19.Kelly HolcombMIN21/39259110.31.1-0.8
20.Eli ManningNYG14/26135110.20.20.0
21.Marc BulgerSTL11/2411801-1.3-1.30.0
See "Frerotte, Gus" and "Holt, Torry".
22.Ben RoethlisbergerPIT17/3224422-2.2-3.91.7
23.Philip RiversSD21/4221102-3.0-3.00.0
Through all of the rightful indictments of his atrocious record as a head coach, the one thing Norv Turner had going for him was a reputation as a developer of young quarterbacks. Now that Rivers seems to be regressing mightily, that seems to be gone as well.
24.David CarrCAR19/4115311-3.0-3.90.9
It didn't work in Houston, and it isn't working in Carolina. At a certain point, we're going to have to put a moratorium on sentences that begin with "David Carr could succeed if only he had a team with a _________."
25.Trent GreenMIA14/2515812-4.1-4.10.0
If not for Ronnie Brown and Miami's special teams, the Dolphins wouldn't have been in this game at all. Miami's line gave Green enough time most of the game, and Oakland's defense doesn't seem to have the same spark they had last year, but Green was horrible. He held on to the ball far too long, several of his passes were tipped at the line (which is what happens when you throw over the middle late) and he threw inexplicably into stacked coverages time after time.
26.Brian GrieseCHI35/5228623-4.6-4.60.0
FO's Sean McCormick: "There is no Rex Grossman. There is no Brian Griese. There is only 'Chicago quarterback.'"
27.Donovan McNabbPHI15/3113800-10.5-8.3-2.2
Huge game the week before: Check. Franchise running back/all-purpose yards guy out with an injury: Check. A replacement left tackle who put on one of the worst performances at his position in recent memory: Check. The coaching staff leaving said left tackle in the game to give up six sacks to Osi Unemyiora of the Giants: Check. Sometimes, we should be allowed to attribute a quarterback's horrific stats to everyone but him.
28.Trent DilferSF12/3312802-12.3-12.30.0
Dilfer didn't have to face these linebackers when he was running Seattle's scout team from 2001-2004. The bigger story for the 49ers isn't Alex Smith's shoulder injury — he wasn't playing well anyway — but the offensive line, which was the worst in Week 4 until the Eagles took the field on Sunday night.
Five most valuable running backs
RkPlayerTeamRush YDSRush TDRec YDSRec TDTotal DPARRush DPARRec DPAR
1.Joseph AddaiIND13611009.49.5-0.2
"Insert running back A into team B for guaranteed results." This used to be the case with the Broncos, and now it seems to be working for the Colts too. Kenton Keith was seventh in DPAR this week, and last year the guy was in Saskatchewan.
2.Ronnie BrownMIA13417307.14.92.2
Great running back, terrible team around him. Brown had 207 total yards against the Raiders. The rest of the offense? 71.
3.Willis McGaheeBAL10403206.15.40.8
The Ravens gained 14 more first downs than the Browns and entered Cleveland territory on just about every drive. But because the Browns put up 24 points in the first half, Baltimore had to play catch-up, and McGahee's 14 carries for 104 yards are little more than a "what-if?"
4.Justin FargasOAK1790005.95.90.0
Wait, wasn't Miami's run defense supposed to be great this year? They were gashed by LaMont Jordan until Jordan got hurt, and then Snuggly Bear — a man with 56 carries for 301 yards in five seasons before this game — came in and looked like the second coming of Jim Brown.
5.LaDainian TomlinsonSD13212205.67.1-1.5
LT finally broke the 100-yard barrier in 2007, but he must be wondering what sort if Bizarro World he's living in. Frequent miscommunications with his quarterback have led to some slapstick pass plays for a combination that used to be automatic. Sometimes, these things (Norv) are hard to explain (Norv). Other times (Norv), the answer's clear (Norv) and you just have to work through it (Norv). Perhaps a few more audibles? 6-10: Selvin Young, Kenton Keith, Correll Buckhalter, Larry Johnson, Adrian L. Peterson.
Least valuable running back
RkPlayerTeamRush YDSRush TDRec YDSRec TDTotal DPARRush DPARRec DPAR
1.Cedric BensonCHI500240-5.2-3.2-2.0
It's not a fluke. Whether the quarterback is Grossman or Griese, you can expect Big Ced to ... erm, not show up. Benson isn't just in last place this week — he's also in last place among running backs for the season to date.
Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
RkPlayerTeamRECATTYDSAVGTDTotal DPAR
1.Patrick CraytonDAL7818426.329.3
The proper response to this game was, "Wow, Lenny Walls is still in the league?"
2.Dwayne BoweKC81016420.516.9
The proper response to this game was, "Wow, Ted Cottrell is still in the league?"
3.Santonio HolmesPIT6912821.326.4
The moral of the story, yet again: Do not write off highly-drafted wide receivers with slow starts in their rookie seasons.
4.Andre DavisHOU5711723.414.8
Don't be shocked if he keeps this up. Davis always had nice numbers in Cleveland and was considered a fantasy sleeper a couple years ago in New England until he was hit by the injury bug.
5.Michael JenkinsATL666410.724.3
Like we said, sometimes you just need the right quarterback. We just never thought the right quarterback would be named Joey Harrington. 6-10: Jerry Porter, Deion Branch, Kevin Walter, Jerheme Urban, Dallas Clark. We expected Clark to be higher, but he actually caught only six of the 11 passes thrown to him.
Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
RkPlayerTeamRECATTYDSAVGTDTotal DPAR
1.Torry HoltSTL5125611.20-2.4
In Pro Football Prospectus 2007, we detailed a number of reasons that we believed the Rams were going to have severe trouble winning more than a handful of games this season: their absurd luck with injuries and starter games lost, regression to the mean on third downs, a defense that was still miles away from even league average, and the notion of following up career years by Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson. Still, we didn't think that things would be this bad for Holt and his partner in crime, Isaac Bruce. Through four games, the Rams are 22nd in the league in passing yards. For a team that's been playing from behind since the start of the preseason, that's unreal.
How PAR works
Each week, it is easy to figure out which players had the most value in fantasy football. But what about the question of which players had the most value in actual, real life NFL football? It isn't enough to add up yards and touchdowns.
A running back who piles up a ton of two-yard carries isn't really helping his team win, and he's not really responsible for a touchdown if the quarterback completed 90 yards worth of passes to get the team down to the one-yard line.
A wide receiver who has five catches that each gain a first down is helping his team more than a receiver who catches one touchdown but lets the defense bat away four different incomplete passes on third down.
And if your defense picks off the other quarterback when he's backed up against his own end zone, how much credit the offense really deserve for the ensuing touchdown drive that might go all of eight yards?
At FootballOutsiders.com, we've developed a system called Points Above Replacement (PAR) that gives us a pretty good idea of which players did the most to help their teams win or lose.
The success of every single NFL play is judged based on yardage gained towards both a touchdown and a first down. Then each play gets compared to the NFL average on similar plays, based on down, distance, and other variables. Players are judged not based on how many yards they get, but on how important those yards are in the context of the game. Once we have enough data for the season, we also adjust for the quality of the opposing defense.
Each player's performance is then translated into an approximate number of actual points that such success (or failure) is worth when compared to a generic bench scrub (also called a "replacement player," or, by his parents, "Billy Joe"). Each Monday, we use the PAR system to take a look at the best and worst quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers of the week (Monday Night Football excluded, of course).
Among the advantages of this system:
Gives value for first downs, which are never discussed by conventional statistics even though they are the most important part of sustaining drives.
Does not punish players on offenses that are always in bad field position because of poor defense, nor does it punish quarterbacks who are always stuck in third-and-long because of a poor running game.
Players receive bonuses when they play well against good defenses, and they don't get rated as world-beaters when they shred the Cincinnati Bengals.
Quarterbacks get credit if they can run, and get penalized for sacks if they can't recognize or avoid a pass rush. Running backs get credit if they gain yards out of the backfield. Judges players not only on receptions but on all passes, because the blame for incomplete passes should fall on both the quarterback and the receiver.
Punishes players not only for turnovers, but for all fumbles, because research shows that jumping on a loose ball is entirely random. (We all know that the officials just award the ball to whichever team is pointing more strenuously.) Different fumbles have different penalties depending on how often that type of fumble is recovered by the defense.
Five-yard gain on third-and-10? Worthless!
Actual points! Easy to understand!
The system cannot yet split the responsibility for a play between 11 players on the field, so be aware that a player's rating will be influenced by the talents of his teammates and the offensive system in which he plays. (This is especially true for a quarterback and his receivers, and for a running back and his offensive line.) An even longer explanation of these numbers can be found here.
article
FootballOutsiders.com
Why do we feel our DPAR stats give a more accurate list of Sunday's best players than standard yards and touchdowns? One big reason is the opponent adjustments, and Week 4 was a great example of this principle in action.
The top quarterbacks this week included Joey Harrington and Matt Schaub, and the top receivers included Michael Jenkins and Andre Davis. How could these players have such huge days? It helps that Houston and Atlanta are each extremely weak at cornerback once you get past Dunta Robinson and DeAngelo Hall.
Dallas won because Tony Romo is playing well, but Dallas won by four touchdowns because Tony Romo got to play against a terrible St. Louis secondary that couldn't keep up with or tackle Patrick Crayton.
Denver got 131 yards from Travis Henry, most of them in just one half, and 81 yards on just eight carries from backup Selvin Young. The Colts got 136 yards from Joseph Addai and another 80 yards on just 10 carries from backup Kenton Keith. Some of this is related to the fact that both teams have strong offensive lines. But two backups combined for 160 yards because neither defense can stop the run.
Unfortunately, it is hard to apply the opponent adjustments early in the year because we don't know exactly how good or bad these defenses really are yet. Are the Giants the team that gave up tons of points in the first two weeks, or the team that sacked Donovan McNabb roughly once every six seconds?
This week we start including opponent adjustments, but they are still only 40 percent strength compared to what they will be after Week 10. Still, it is enough to move Peyton Manning ahead of Romo for the top spot among this week's quarterbacks. Putting up big numbers against Ron Bartell and Lenny Walls isn't quite like putting up big numbers against Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly.
Here are the best and worst players of Week 4 according to the Football Outsiders DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement) statistics. Click here to learn more about what these numbers mean and how they are computed.
Quarterbacks
RkPlayerTeamCP/ATYDSTDINTTotal DPARPass DPARRush DPAR
1.Peyton ManningIND 20/271933013.412.50.9
Having your top receiver (Marvin Harrison) out with a bruised knee is less of a problem when the Denver defense you're facing throws some funky coverages out there. Champ Bailey on Dallas Clark — who is a tight end in name only — is understandable. But Dre' Bly on Aaron Moorehead? Domonique Foxworth trying to cover Reggie Wayne in a zone? A quarterback of Manning's caliber will rip such mismatches to shreds.
2.Tony RomoDAL 21/333393112.211.11.2
Okay, so the Brett Favre comparisons are a bit premature, but something certainly is going on here. Only Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have more value this season according on DPAR. His pocket presence seems positively prodigal for a quarterback with so few starts in the books. Nice improvisation for a 37-yard run to make the best of a bad snap against the Rams, as well.
3.Brett FavreGB 32/453442011.814.3-2.5
What's more impressive — the records that Favre is breaking with every pass, or the idea that No. 4, and the Green Bay team around him, is off to a 4-0 start? Could we be witnessing a second act worthy of John Elway?
4.Joey HarringtonATL 23/29223208.98.90.0
No, this is not a typo. Harrington was very efficient when throwing to Roddy White and Michael Jenkins — you know, the same no-name receivers renowned more for the passes they couldn't catch from their previous quarterback. If Harrington could play against his own team's secondary every week, who knows what he could do?
5.Matt SchaubHOU28/38317107.78.1-0.3
Actually, Matt Schaub knows. Michael Vick's former understudy — and yes, that notion gets more and more humorous every single day — torched an Atlanta defense which ranks 26th against the pass in our DVOA stats. And he did it with a ridiculously banged-up group of receivers. Of course, it's easier when you're going up against a bunch of cornerbacks that need frequent trips to the "time-out chair."
6.Matt HasselbeckSEA23/31281216.96.90.0
7.Jon KitnaDET20/24247206.36.20.0
1,277 down, 3,773 to go. Tune in next week!
8.Trent EdwardsBUF22/28235116.06.00.0
So, how did the Stanford rookie do in his first start? FO's Mike Tanier: "I was highly, highly impressed by Edwards. Great timing on lots of little hitches and curls, good presence in the pocket. He really sliced some passes into tight spots. I don't want to get carried away or anything, but it was as good a first start as any rookie could hope for."
9.Steve McNairBAL35/53307114.85.1-0.3
10.Daunte CulpepperOAK5/1275204.61.72.9
Two passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns from Culpepper, and one really bad Trent Green performance later, it would seem that the Raiders got the best of the Dolphins in the Daunte Culpepper sweepstakes. And when the Raiders have you one-up in a personnel matter, you've got problems beyond an 0-4 start.
11.Jeff GarciaTB15/25176004.42.81.6
12.Kurt WarnerARI14/21132104.44.40.0
People may not understand what Ken Whisenhunt is doing with the Warner/Leinart switcheroo (heck, we don't, either), but Arizona's win over the seemingly dominant Steelers seems to validate the idea so far. Next week, Warner gets to throw some dirt on his old franchise, as he faces the moribund Rams.
13.Matt LeinartARI7/1493004.13.11.0
Of course, the balancing act that Whisenhunt faces is throwing Warner out there long enough to get whatever wins he can get out of the veteran, while keeping Leinart's head up until Warner turns back into a snap-fumbling pumpkin.
14.Derek AndersonCLE10/18204214.04.3-0.4
15.Chad PenningtonNYJ32/39290123.43.30.1
16.Jay CutlerDEN13/21131112.41.01.3
17.Gus FrerotteSTL3/629001.41.40.0
Great quote from Frerotte after the loss to Dallas, as yet another observer suggested that the veteran backup get more snaps in place of a battered and ineffective Marc Bulger: "Why can't they (Rams coaches) see what we see?" Scott Linehan, you appear to be losing your team.
18.Damon HuardKC17/29284220.80.80.0
Huard saved his job for another week, though he should send a thank you card to Chargers defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell.
19.Kelly HolcombMIN21/39259110.31.1-0.8
20.Eli ManningNYG14/26135110.20.20.0
21.Marc BulgerSTL11/2411801-1.3-1.30.0
See "Frerotte, Gus" and "Holt, Torry".
22.Ben RoethlisbergerPIT17/3224422-2.2-3.91.7
23.Philip RiversSD21/4221102-3.0-3.00.0
Through all of the rightful indictments of his atrocious record as a head coach, the one thing Norv Turner had going for him was a reputation as a developer of young quarterbacks. Now that Rivers seems to be regressing mightily, that seems to be gone as well.
24.David CarrCAR19/4115311-3.0-3.90.9
It didn't work in Houston, and it isn't working in Carolina. At a certain point, we're going to have to put a moratorium on sentences that begin with "David Carr could succeed if only he had a team with a _________."
25.Trent GreenMIA14/2515812-4.1-4.10.0
If not for Ronnie Brown and Miami's special teams, the Dolphins wouldn't have been in this game at all. Miami's line gave Green enough time most of the game, and Oakland's defense doesn't seem to have the same spark they had last year, but Green was horrible. He held on to the ball far too long, several of his passes were tipped at the line (which is what happens when you throw over the middle late) and he threw inexplicably into stacked coverages time after time.
26.Brian GrieseCHI35/5228623-4.6-4.60.0
FO's Sean McCormick: "There is no Rex Grossman. There is no Brian Griese. There is only 'Chicago quarterback.'"
27.Donovan McNabbPHI15/3113800-10.5-8.3-2.2
Huge game the week before: Check. Franchise running back/all-purpose yards guy out with an injury: Check. A replacement left tackle who put on one of the worst performances at his position in recent memory: Check. The coaching staff leaving said left tackle in the game to give up six sacks to Osi Unemyiora of the Giants: Check. Sometimes, we should be allowed to attribute a quarterback's horrific stats to everyone but him.
28.Trent DilferSF12/3312802-12.3-12.30.0
Dilfer didn't have to face these linebackers when he was running Seattle's scout team from 2001-2004. The bigger story for the 49ers isn't Alex Smith's shoulder injury — he wasn't playing well anyway — but the offensive line, which was the worst in Week 4 until the Eagles took the field on Sunday night.
Five most valuable running backs
RkPlayerTeamRush YDSRush TDRec YDSRec TDTotal DPARRush DPARRec DPAR
1.Joseph AddaiIND13611009.49.5-0.2
"Insert running back A into team B for guaranteed results." This used to be the case with the Broncos, and now it seems to be working for the Colts too. Kenton Keith was seventh in DPAR this week, and last year the guy was in Saskatchewan.
2.Ronnie BrownMIA13417307.14.92.2
Great running back, terrible team around him. Brown had 207 total yards against the Raiders. The rest of the offense? 71.
3.Willis McGaheeBAL10403206.15.40.8
The Ravens gained 14 more first downs than the Browns and entered Cleveland territory on just about every drive. But because the Browns put up 24 points in the first half, Baltimore had to play catch-up, and McGahee's 14 carries for 104 yards are little more than a "what-if?"
4.Justin FargasOAK1790005.95.90.0
Wait, wasn't Miami's run defense supposed to be great this year? They were gashed by LaMont Jordan until Jordan got hurt, and then Snuggly Bear — a man with 56 carries for 301 yards in five seasons before this game — came in and looked like the second coming of Jim Brown.
5.LaDainian TomlinsonSD13212205.67.1-1.5
LT finally broke the 100-yard barrier in 2007, but he must be wondering what sort if Bizarro World he's living in. Frequent miscommunications with his quarterback have led to some slapstick pass plays for a combination that used to be automatic. Sometimes, these things (Norv) are hard to explain (Norv). Other times (Norv), the answer's clear (Norv) and you just have to work through it (Norv). Perhaps a few more audibles? 6-10: Selvin Young, Kenton Keith, Correll Buckhalter, Larry Johnson, Adrian L. Peterson.
Least valuable running back
RkPlayerTeamRush YDSRush TDRec YDSRec TDTotal DPARRush DPARRec DPAR
1.Cedric BensonCHI500240-5.2-3.2-2.0
It's not a fluke. Whether the quarterback is Grossman or Griese, you can expect Big Ced to ... erm, not show up. Benson isn't just in last place this week — he's also in last place among running backs for the season to date.
Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
RkPlayerTeamRECATTYDSAVGTDTotal DPAR
1.Patrick CraytonDAL7818426.329.3
The proper response to this game was, "Wow, Lenny Walls is still in the league?"
2.Dwayne BoweKC81016420.516.9
The proper response to this game was, "Wow, Ted Cottrell is still in the league?"
3.Santonio HolmesPIT6912821.326.4
The moral of the story, yet again: Do not write off highly-drafted wide receivers with slow starts in their rookie seasons.
4.Andre DavisHOU5711723.414.8
Don't be shocked if he keeps this up. Davis always had nice numbers in Cleveland and was considered a fantasy sleeper a couple years ago in New England until he was hit by the injury bug.
5.Michael JenkinsATL666410.724.3
Like we said, sometimes you just need the right quarterback. We just never thought the right quarterback would be named Joey Harrington. 6-10: Jerry Porter, Deion Branch, Kevin Walter, Jerheme Urban, Dallas Clark. We expected Clark to be higher, but he actually caught only six of the 11 passes thrown to him.
Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
RkPlayerTeamRECATTYDSAVGTDTotal DPAR
1.Torry HoltSTL5125611.20-2.4
In Pro Football Prospectus 2007, we detailed a number of reasons that we believed the Rams were going to have severe trouble winning more than a handful of games this season: their absurd luck with injuries and starter games lost, regression to the mean on third downs, a defense that was still miles away from even league average, and the notion of following up career years by Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson. Still, we didn't think that things would be this bad for Holt and his partner in crime, Isaac Bruce. Through four games, the Rams are 22nd in the league in passing yards. For a team that's been playing from behind since the start of the preseason, that's unreal.
How PAR works
Each week, it is easy to figure out which players had the most value in fantasy football. But what about the question of which players had the most value in actual, real life NFL football? It isn't enough to add up yards and touchdowns.
A running back who piles up a ton of two-yard carries isn't really helping his team win, and he's not really responsible for a touchdown if the quarterback completed 90 yards worth of passes to get the team down to the one-yard line.
A wide receiver who has five catches that each gain a first down is helping his team more than a receiver who catches one touchdown but lets the defense bat away four different incomplete passes on third down.
And if your defense picks off the other quarterback when he's backed up against his own end zone, how much credit the offense really deserve for the ensuing touchdown drive that might go all of eight yards?
At FootballOutsiders.com, we've developed a system called Points Above Replacement (PAR) that gives us a pretty good idea of which players did the most to help their teams win or lose.
The success of every single NFL play is judged based on yardage gained towards both a touchdown and a first down. Then each play gets compared to the NFL average on similar plays, based on down, distance, and other variables. Players are judged not based on how many yards they get, but on how important those yards are in the context of the game. Once we have enough data for the season, we also adjust for the quality of the opposing defense.
Each player's performance is then translated into an approximate number of actual points that such success (or failure) is worth when compared to a generic bench scrub (also called a "replacement player," or, by his parents, "Billy Joe"). Each Monday, we use the PAR system to take a look at the best and worst quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers of the week (Monday Night Football excluded, of course).
Among the advantages of this system:
Gives value for first downs, which are never discussed by conventional statistics even though they are the most important part of sustaining drives.
Does not punish players on offenses that are always in bad field position because of poor defense, nor does it punish quarterbacks who are always stuck in third-and-long because of a poor running game.
Players receive bonuses when they play well against good defenses, and they don't get rated as world-beaters when they shred the Cincinnati Bengals.
Quarterbacks get credit if they can run, and get penalized for sacks if they can't recognize or avoid a pass rush. Running backs get credit if they gain yards out of the backfield. Judges players not only on receptions but on all passes, because the blame for incomplete passes should fall on both the quarterback and the receiver.
Punishes players not only for turnovers, but for all fumbles, because research shows that jumping on a loose ball is entirely random. (We all know that the officials just award the ball to whichever team is pointing more strenuously.) Different fumbles have different penalties depending on how often that type of fumble is recovered by the defense.
Five-yard gain on third-and-10? Worthless!
Actual points! Easy to understand!
The system cannot yet split the responsibility for a play between 11 players on the field, so be aware that a player's rating will be influenced by the talents of his teammates and the offensive system in which he plays. (This is especially true for a quarterback and his receivers, and for a running back and his offensive line.) An even longer explanation of these numbers can be found here.
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