FoxSports FO: Quick reads: It's all about the matchups...2 'boys

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FootballOutsiders.com, Updated 1 day ago STORY TOOLS:


Why do we feel our DPAR stats give a more accurate list of Sunday's best players than standard yards and touchdowns? One big reason is the opponent adjustments, and Week 4 was a great example of this principle in action.

The top quarterbacks this week included Joey Harrington and Matt Schaub, and the top receivers included Michael Jenkins and Andre Davis. How could these players have such huge days? It helps that Houston and Atlanta are each extremely weak at cornerback once you get past Dunta Robinson and DeAngelo Hall.

Dallas won because Tony Romo is playing well, but Dallas won by four touchdowns because Tony Romo got to play against a terrible St. Louis secondary that couldn't keep up with or tackle Patrick Crayton.

Denver got 131 yards from Travis Henry, most of them in just one half, and 81 yards on just eight carries from backup Selvin Young. The Colts got 136 yards from Joseph Addai and another 80 yards on just 10 carries from backup Kenton Keith. Some of this is related to the fact that both teams have strong offensive lines. But two backups combined for 160 yards because neither defense can stop the run.

Unfortunately, it is hard to apply the opponent adjustments early in the year because we don't know exactly how good or bad these defenses really are yet. Are the Giants the team that gave up tons of points in the first two weeks, or the team that sacked Donovan McNabb roughly once every six seconds?

This week we start including opponent adjustments, but they are still only 40 percent strength compared to what they will be after Week 10. Still, it is enough to move Peyton Manning ahead of Romo for the top spot among this week's quarterbacks. Putting up big numbers against Ron Bartell and Lenny Walls isn't quite like putting up big numbers against Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly.

Here are the best and worst players of Week 4 according to the Football Outsiders DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement) statistics. Click here to learn more about what these numbers mean and how they are computed.

Quarterbacks
Rk Player Team CP/AT YDS TD INT Total DPAR Pass DPAR Rush DPAR
1. Peyton Manning IND 20/27 193 3 0 13.4 12.5 0.9
Having your top receiver (Marvin Harrison) out with a bruised knee is less of a problem when the Denver defense you're facing throws some funky coverages out there. Champ Bailey on Dallas Clark — who is a tight end in name only — is understandable. But Dre' Bly on Aaron Moorehead? Domonique Foxworth trying to cover Reggie Wayne in a zone? A quarterback of Manning's caliber will rip such mismatches to shreds.

2. Tony Romo DAL 21/33 339 3 1 12.2 11.1 1.2
Okay, so the Brett Favre comparisons are a bit premature, but something certainly is going on here. Only Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have more value this season according on DPAR. His pocket presence seems positively prodigal for a quarterback with so few starts in the books. Nice improvisation for a 37-yard run to make the best of a bad snap against the Rams, as well.

3. Brett Favre GB 32/45 344 2 0 11.8 14.3 -2.5
What's more impressive — the records that Favre is breaking with every pass, or the idea that No. 4, and the Green Bay team around him, is off to a 4-0 start? Could we be witnessing a second act worthy of John Elway?

4. Joey Harrington ATL 23/29 223 2 0 8.9 8.9 0.0
No, this is not a typo. Harrington was very efficient when throwing to Roddy White and Michael Jenkins — you know, the same no-name receivers renowned more for the passes they couldn't catch from their previous quarterback. If Harrington could play against his own team's secondary every week, who knows what he could do?

5. Matt Schaub HOU 28/38 317 1 0 7.7 8.1 -0.3
Actually, Matt Schaub knows. Michael Vick's former understudy — and yes, that notion gets more and more humorous every single day — torched an Atlanta defense which ranks 26th against the pass in our DVOA stats. And he did it with a ridiculously banged-up group of receivers. Of course, it's easier when you're going up against a bunch of cornerbacks that need frequent trips to the "time-out chair."

6. Matt Hasselbeck SEA 23/31 281 2 1 6.9 6.9 0.0

7. Jon Kitna DET 20/24 247 2 0 6.3 6.2 0.0
1,277 down, 3,773 to go. Tune in next week!

8. Trent Edwards BUF 22/28 235 1 1 6.0 6.0 0.0
So, how did the Stanford rookie do in his first start? FO's Mike Tanier: "I was highly, highly impressed by Edwards. Great timing on lots of little hitches and curls, good presence in the pocket. He really sliced some passes into tight spots. I don't want to get carried away or anything, but it was as good a first start as any rookie could hope for."

9. Steve McNair BAL 35/53 307 1 1 4.8 5.1 -0.3

10. Daunte Culpepper OAK 5/12 75 2 0 4.6 1.7 2.9
Two passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns from Culpepper, and one really bad Trent Green performance later, it would seem that the Raiders got the best of the Dolphins in the Daunte Culpepper sweepstakes. And when the Raiders have you one-up in a personnel matter, you've got problems beyond an 0-4 start.

11. Jeff Garcia TB 15/25 176 0 0 4.4 2.8 1.6

12. Kurt Warner ARI 14/21 132 1 0 4.4 4.4 0.0
People may not understand what Ken Whisenhunt is doing with the Warner/Leinart switcheroo (heck, we don't, either), but Arizona's win over the seemingly dominant Steelers seems to validate the idea so far. Next week, Warner gets to throw some dirt on his old franchise, as he faces the moribund Rams.

13. Matt Leinart ARI 7/14 93 0 0 4.1 3.1 1.0
Of course, the balancing act that Whisenhunt faces is throwing Warner out there long enough to get whatever wins he can get out of the veteran, while keeping Leinart's head up until Warner turns back into a snap-fumbling pumpkin.

14. Derek Anderson CLE 10/18 204 2 1 4.0 4.3 -0.4

15. Chad Pennington NYJ 32/39 290 1 2 3.4 3.3 0.1

16. Jay Cutler DEN 13/21 131 1 1 2.4 1.0 1.3

17. Gus Frerotte STL 3/6 29 0 0 1.4 1.4 0.0
Great quote from Frerotte after the loss to Dallas, as yet another observer suggested that the veteran backup get more snaps in place of a battered and ineffective Marc Bulger: "Why can't they (Rams coaches) see what we see?" Scott Linehan, you appear to be losing your team.

18. Damon Huard KC 17/29 284 2 2 0.8 0.8 0.0
Huard saved his job for another week, though he should send a thank you card to Chargers defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell.

19. Kelly Holcomb MIN 21/39 259 1 1 0.3 1.1 -0.8

20. Eli Manning NYG 14/26 135 1 1 0.2 0.2 0.0

21. Marc Bulger STL 11/24 118 0 1 -1.3 -1.3 0.0
See "Frerotte, Gus" and "Holt, Torry".

22. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 17/32 244 2 2 -2.2 -3.9 1.7

23. Philip Rivers SD 21/42 211 0 2 -3.0 -3.0 0.0
Through all of the rightful indictments of his atrocious record as a head coach, the one thing Norv Turner had going for him was a reputation as a developer of young quarterbacks. Now that Rivers seems to be regressing mightily, that seems to be gone as well.

24. David Carr CAR 19/41 153 1 1 -3.0 -3.9 0.9
It didn't work in Houston, and it isn't working in Carolina. At a certain point, we're going to have to put a moratorium on sentences that begin with "David Carr could succeed if only he had a team with a _________."

25. Trent Green MIA 14/25 158 1 2 -4.1 -4.1 0.0
If not for Ronnie Brown and Miami's special teams, the Dolphins wouldn't have been in this game at all. Miami's line gave Green enough time most of the game, and Oakland's defense doesn't seem to have the same spark they had last year, but Green was horrible. He held on to the ball far too long, several of his passes were tipped at the line (which is what happens when you throw over the middle late) and he threw inexplicably into stacked coverages time after time.

26. Brian Griese CHI 35/52 286 2 3 -4.6 -4.6 0.0
FO's Sean McCormick: "There is no Rex Grossman. There is no Brian Griese. There is only 'Chicago quarterback.'"

27. Donovan McNabb PHI 15/31 138 0 0 -10.5 -8.3 -2.2
Huge game the week before: Check. Franchise running back/all-purpose yards guy out with an injury: Check. A replacement left tackle who put on one of the worst performances at his position in recent memory: Check. The coaching staff leaving said left tackle in the game to give up six sacks to Osi Unemyiora of the Giants: Check. Sometimes, we should be allowed to attribute a quarterback's horrific stats to everyone but him.

28. Trent Dilfer SF 12/33 128 0 2 -12.3 -12.3 0.0
Dilfer didn't have to face these linebackers when he was running Seattle's scout team from 2001-2004. The bigger story for the 49ers isn't Alex Smith's shoulder injury — he wasn't playing well anyway — but the offensive line, which was the worst in Week 4 until the Eagles took the field on Sunday night.

Five most valuable running backs
Rk Player Team Rush YDS Rush TD Rec YDS Rec TD Total DPAR Rush DPAR Rec DPAR

1. Joseph Addai IND 136 1 10 0 9.4 9.5 -0.2
"Insert running back A into team B for guaranteed results." This used to be the case with the Broncos, and now it seems to be working for the Colts too. Kenton Keith was seventh in DPAR this week, and last year the guy was in Saskatchewan.

2. Ronnie Brown MIA 134 1 73 0 7.1 4.9 2.2
Great running back, terrible team around him. Brown had 207 total yards against the Raiders. The rest of the offense? 71.

3. Willis McGahee BAL 104 0 32 0 6.1 5.4 0.8
The Ravens gained 14 more first downs than the Browns and entered Cleveland territory on just about every drive. But because the Browns put up 24 points in the first half, Baltimore had to play catch-up, and McGahee's 14 carries for 104 yards are little more than a "what-if?"

4. Justin Fargas OAK 179 0 0 0 5.9 5.9 0.0
Wait, wasn't Miami's run defense supposed to be great this year? They were gashed by LaMont Jordan until Jordan got hurt, and then Snuggly Bear — a man with 56 carries for 301 yards in five seasons before this game — came in and looked like the second coming of Jim Brown.

5. LaDainian Tomlinson SD 132 1 22 0 5.6 7.1 -1.5
LT finally broke the 100-yard barrier in 2007, but he must be wondering what sort if Bizarro World he's living in. Frequent miscommunications with his quarterback have led to some slapstick pass plays for a combination that used to be automatic. Sometimes, these things (Norv) are hard to explain (Norv). Other times (Norv), the answer's clear (Norv) and you just have to work through it (Norv). Perhaps a few more audibles?

6-10: Selvin Young, Kenton Keith, Correll Buckhalter, Larry Johnson, Adrian L. Peterson.

Least valuable running back
Rk Player Team Rush YDS Rush TD Rec YDS Rec TD Total DPAR Rush DPAR Rec DPAR
1. Cedric Benson CHI 50 0 24 0 -5.2 -3.2 -2.0
It's not a fluke. Whether the quarterback is Grossman or Griese, you can expect Big Ced to ... erm, not show up. Benson isn't just in last place this week — he's also in last place among running backs for the season to date.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk Player Team REC ATT YDS AVG TD Total DPAR
1. Patrick Crayton DAL 7 8 184 26.3 2 9.3
The proper response to this game was, "Wow, Lenny Walls is still in the league?"

2. Dwayne Bowe KC 8 10 164 20.5 1 6.9
The proper response to this game was, "Wow, Ted Cottrell is still in the league?"

3. Santonio Holmes PIT 6 9 128 21.3 2 6.4
The moral of the story, yet again: Do not write off highly-drafted wide receivers with slow starts in their rookie seasons.

4. Andre Davis HOU 5 7 117 23.4 1 4.8
Don't be shocked if he keeps this up. Davis always had nice numbers in Cleveland and was considered a fantasy sleeper a couple years ago in New England until he was hit by the injury bug.

5. Michael Jenkins ATL 6 6 64 10.7 2 4.3
Like we said, sometimes you just need the right quarterback. We just never thought the right quarterback would be named Joey Harrington.

6-10: Jerry Porter, Deion Branch, Kevin Walter, Jerheme Urban, Dallas Clark. We expected Clark to be higher, but he actually caught only six of the 11 passes thrown to him.

Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk Player Team REC ATT YDS AVG TD Total DPAR
1. Torry Holt STL 5 12 56 11.2 0 -2.4
In Pro Football Prospectus 2007, we detailed a number of reasons that we believed the Rams were going to have severe trouble winning more than a handful of games this season: their absurd luck with injuries and starter games lost, regression to the mean on third downs, a defense that was still miles away from even league average, and the notion of following up career years by Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson. Still, we didn't think that things would be this bad for Holt and his partner in crime, Isaac Bruce. Through four games, the Rams are 22nd in the league in passing yards. For a team that's been playing from behind since the start of the preseason, that's unreal.
 
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