Free Agent Signing Patterns

[Jumbo075]

The consistent pattern over the last 10-15 years is that the Cowboys telegraph their draft intentions by who they sign in free agency. For example,

• in 2008, the Cowboys signed Marion Barber to a big $45M contract extension AND drafted Felix Jones in the 1st round.
• In 2010, they signed Miles Austin to a big $57M contract AND spent a 1st round pick on Dez Bryant.
• In 2011, they signed Doug Free to a large $32M contract AND drafted Tyron Smith in the 1st round
• In 2012, they signed Brandon Carr to a $50M contract AND drafted Mo Claiborne in the 1st round
• In 2014, they signed Jeremy Mincey to a Free agent deal AND drafted DeMarcus Lawrence
• In 2015, they signed Greg Hardy to a Free agent deal AND drafted Randy Gregory
• In 2016, they signed Alfred Morris AND drafted Ezekiel Elliott in the 1st round.

When the Cowboys focus on a position in Free Agency, more often than not they ALSO focus on the same position in the draft. So what has been the focus of the Cowboys during this Free Agency Season?

1. Defensive Line - DeMarcus Lawrence, David Irving, Brian Price, Kony Ealy
2. Offensive Line - Marcus Martin, Joe Looney, Cameron Fleming, (and maybe a big extension for Zack Martin will happen also.)
3. Wide Receiver - Allen Hurns, Deonte Thompson
4. Linebacker - Joe Thomas

What positions have they NOT focused on?

1. Tight End
2. Defensive Back
3. Running Back
4. Quarterback

Although it may seem counter-intuitive to many pundits and fans, based on the Cowboys habits and patterns, they will most likely focus on the Defensive Line, Offensive Line, Wide Receiver and Linebacker in the upcoming draft. That is because the majority of those free agent contracts are short 1 and 2 year deals. The Cowboys prefer to build through the draft, and use free agents as a BRIDGE to the future, instead of trying to find long-term starters. It's cheaper that way, and you don't get trapped with aging stars like the Cowboys used to do.

So, as much as you may like the signings of Hurns, Ealy, Thompson, and Fleming, keep in mind they may just be 1-2 year rentals in the eyes of the Cowboys. Rather than fill OTHER holes in the draft, the Cowboys free agents are an indication of how they will draft. They almost always double up.

The exception of course is when they resign their own free agents to long-term deals. But you can easily pick out the exceptions because of the length of the contracts. The other exception occurred last year, when the Cowboys picked 4 defensive backs in the draft to retool. But even then, they signed Carroll to a free agent deal, just in case they needed a veteran BRIDGE before the rookies were ready to take over.

 

[jazzcat22]

Good analogy on the FA then the draft. also last year they brought inBlanton as a FA at S.

But I jist can’t see them following that pattern as for selecting an OL or WR in the first round.
Back then we needed depth at those positions as well as better talent. This year looks different as talent wise as to depth.

LB and DT is the main prisoners, as we actually do need bodies there. Especially at LB.

 

[Jumbo075]

Good analogy on the FA then the draft. also last year they brought inBlanton as a FA at S.

But I jist can’t see them following that pattern as for selecting an OL or WR in the first round.
Back then we needed depth at those positions as well as better talent. This year looks different as talent wise as to depth.

LB and DT is the main prisoners, as we actually do need bodies there. Especially at LB.

The thing about tendencies and patterns is that they are never guaranteed. People and teams can break their patterns at any time without warning. But the odds are with you if you bet with the patterns more often than not.

 

[CowboyRoy]

The consistent pattern over the last 10-15 years is that the Cowboys telegraph their draft intentions by who they sign in free agency. For example,

• in 2008, the Cowboys signed Marion Barber to a big $45M contract extension AND drafted Felix Jones in the 1st round.
• In 2010, they signed Miles Austin to a big $57M contract AND spent a 1st round pick on Dez Bryant.
• In 2011, they signed Doug Free to a large $32M contract AND drafted Tyron Smith in the 1st round
• In 2012, they signed Brandon Carr to a $50M contract AND drafted Mo Claiborne in the 1st round
• In 2014, they signed Jeremy Mincey to a Free agent deal AND drafted DeMarcus Lawrence
• In 2015, they signed Greg Hardy to a Free agent deal AND drafted Randy Gregory

When the Cowboys focus on a position in Free Agency, more often than not they ALSO focus on the same position in the draft. So what has been the focus of the Cowboys during this Free Agency Season?

1. Defensive Line - DeMarcus Lawrence, David Irving, Brian Price, Kony Ealy
2. Offensive Line - Marcus Martin, Joe Looney, Cameron Fleming, (and maybe a big extension for Zack Martin will happen also.)
3. Wide Receiver - Allen Hurns, Deonte Thompson
4. Linebacker - Joe Thomas

What positions have they NOT focused on?

1. Tight End
2. Defensive Back
3. Running Back
4. Quarterback

Although it may seem counter-intuitive to many pundits and fans, based on the Cowboys habits and patterns, they will most likely focus on the Defensive Line, Offensive Line, Wide Receiver and Linebacker in the upcoming draft. That is because the majority of those free agent contracts are short 1 and 2 year deals. The Cowboys prefer to build through the draft, and use free agents as a BRIDGE to the future, instead of trying to find long-term starters. It's cheaper that way, and you don't get trapped with aging stars like the Cowboys used to do.

So, as much as you may like the signings of Hurns, Ealy, Thompson, and Fleming, keep in mind they may just be 1-2 year rentals in the eyes of the Cowboys. Rather than fill OTHER holes in the draft, the Cowboys free agents are an indication of how they will draft. They almost always double up.

The exception of course is when they resign their own free agents to long-term deals. But you can easily pick out the exceptions because of the length of the contracts. The other exception occurred last year, when the Cowboys picked 4 defensive backs in the draft to retool. But even then, they signed Carroll to a free agent deal, just in case they needed a veteran BRIDGE before the rookies were ready to take over.

Very true. All good points. To me, they need a lber more than anything. I see them addressing WR in rounds 2-5. If one of those incredible DT's are there I see them going there. If not I see them plucking stub lber.

Now where they have gone askew is then they all fall in love with some offensive toy. I could see them pulling someting foolish and taking a WR at #1.

 

[cern]

I think the majority of the signings/picks in your post is that at those times the cowboys thought they were just a position away from being contenders. they thought a major problem at cb would be cured by carr/mo. they thought hardy/Gregory would put them over the top on the d-line. they thought free/smith would give them a great oline. and that Austin/dez would help forget Galloway and roy Williams. other than the o-line, most of their thinking failed. I think this year's draft will be all over the place due to the needs at so many positions. wr, ss, lb, dt. the list is long.

 

[jazzcat22]

The thing about tendencies and patterns is that they are never guaranteed. People and teams can break their patterns at any time without warning. But the odds are with you if you bet with the patterns more often than not.

Creatures of habit. We all our rather we try to be or not. Takes a lot to break out of that at times.

But in each of those years, we needed depth at each of those positions. We had nothing behind any of those players.
But now we do, or at least on paper.

 

[buybuydandavis]

But I jist can’t see them following that pattern as for selecting an OL or WR in the first round.
...
LB and DT is the main prisoners, as we actually do need bodies there. Especially at LB.

I see it for WR. Draft WR high, move on from Dez, get better for the future, and we clear cap for other positions from cap casualties later in the year.

DT is interesting. We go there as our 2nd option.

I don't see LB unless some great guy drops in our lap. We have our 3 down players in Smith and Lee. The third part time LB has always been a cheapout.

 

[jrumann59]

I see it for WR. Draft WR high, move on from Dez, get better for the future, and we clear cap for other positions from cap casualties later in the year.

DT is interesting. We go there as our 2nd option.

I don't see LB unless some great guy drops in our lap. We have our 3 down players in Smith and Lee. The third part time LB has always been a cheapout.

This is horrible draft for #1 wr prospects only a couple are expected to be true #1s the rest may be 2 or 3s

 

[coult44]

The consistent pattern over the last 10-15 years is that the Cowboys telegraph their draft intentions by who they sign in free agency. For example,

• in 2008, the Cowboys signed Marion Barber to a big $45M contract extension AND drafted Felix Jones in the 1st round.
• In 2010, they signed Miles Austin to a big $57M contract AND spent a 1st round pick on Dez Bryant.
• In 2011, they signed Doug Free to a large $32M contract AND drafted Tyron Smith in the 1st round
• In 2012, they signed Brandon Carr to a $50M contract AND drafted Mo Claiborne in the 1st round
• In 2014, they signed Jeremy Mincey to a Free agent deal AND drafted DeMarcus Lawrence
• In 2015, they signed Greg Hardy to a Free agent deal AND drafted Randy Gregory
• In 2016, they signed Alfred Morris AND drafted Ezekiel Elliott in the 1st round.

When the Cowboys focus on a position in Free Agency, more often than not they ALSO focus on the same position in the draft. So what has been the focus of the Cowboys during this Free Agency Season?

1. Defensive Line - DeMarcus Lawrence, David Irving, Brian Price, Kony Ealy
2. Offensive Line - Marcus Martin, Joe Looney, Cameron Fleming, (and maybe a big extension for Zack Martin will happen also.)
3. Wide Receiver - Allen Hurns, Deonte Thompson
4. Linebacker - Joe Thomas

What positions have they NOT focused on?

1. Tight End
2. Defensive Back
3. Running Back
4. Quarterback

Although it may seem counter-intuitive to many pundits and fans, based on the Cowboys habits and patterns, they will most likely focus on the Defensive Line, Offensive Line, Wide Receiver and Linebacker in the upcoming draft. That is because the majority of those free agent contracts are short 1 and 2 year deals. The Cowboys prefer to build through the draft, and use free agents as a BRIDGE to the future, instead of trying to find long-term starters. It's cheaper that way, and you don't get trapped with aging stars like the Cowboys used to do.

So, as much as you may like the signings of Hurns, Ealy, Thompson, and Fleming, keep in mind they may just be 1-2 year rentals in the eyes of the Cowboys. Rather than fill OTHER holes in the draft, the Cowboys free agents are an indication of how they will draft. They almost always double up.

The exception of course is when they resign their own free agents to long-term deals. But you can easily pick out the exceptions because of the length of the contracts. The other exception occurred last year, when the Cowboys picked 4 defensive backs in the draft to retool. But even then, they signed Carroll to a free agent deal, just in case they needed a veteran BRIDGE before the rookies were ready to take over.

I feel “smarter” than I was before I read this. This is the kind of stuff that made me join CZ 11-12 years ago. Very good post with facts, finds, and football IQ. Than you sir.

 

[Keithfansince5]

Ridley or Vea and I am happy.

 

[Carter]

Cowboys have added depths to holes on Need positions at O-Line, D-Line and WR.

The only still very weak links are Safety and Linebacker. They only replaced Wilbur with Joe Thomas so far but Need a Starter Replacement for Hitchens.

So right now id say they target either Safety Derwin James or one of the 1st Round LBs.

 

[Verdict]

Good analogy on the FA then the draft. also last year they brought inBlanton as a FA at S.

But I jist can’t see them following that pattern as for selecting an OL or WR in the first round.
Back then we needed depth at those positions as well as better talent. This year looks different as talent wise as to depth.

LB and DT is the main prisoners, as we actually do need bodies there. Especially at LB.

I think OL is in play in the first. I think the Cowboys are keeping their options open to move on from Dez, Martin, Lawrence and Irving. I think the team would like to keep Martin and Lawrence. But at some point cap hit becomes a factor.

 

[Verdict]

What would you guys think about if the Cowboys took the top rated OT at #19 and the Cowboys made Martin available for a first and a third (obviously the first round pick is after #19.). Any difference in opinion if you made it a second and a third.

 

[buybuydandavis]

This is horrible draft for #1 wr prospects only a couple are expected to be true #1s the rest may be 2 or 3s

That's my understanding too. It is what it is. Good chance we take Ridley if he falls to us.

 

[Hadenough]

I know a lot of people want to see us draft Ridley but I really think most important position needs are. LB, DT, S, WR
The trenches are where these games are won and the Cowboys must be able to get pressure up the middle and defend the middle of the field better.

 

[joshjwp]

If they pick a WR in RD1 I'm gonna lose it. We need LB, 1 Tech DT, FS in that order IMO. There are even other positions we need more that WR (like TE, LG, RB). I don't even think any of the receivers in this draft are impressive enough to take in the 1st RD.

 

[Alexander]

This is horrible draft for #1 wr prospects only a couple are expected to be true #1s the rest may be 2 or 3s

Which is why they need to de-prioritize it. At least for the first round. If they want another receiver, spend #50 or later on it because that is where the value is. Keep Bryant. His money is a sunk cost. Free agency is over, the cap room is practically inconsequential now. Cut him after the season is over.

 

[Bowdown27]

I see it for WR. Draft WR high, move on from Dez, get better for the future, and we clear cap for other positions from cap casualties later in the year.

DT is interesting. We go there as our 2nd option.

I don't see LB unless some great guy drops in our lap. We have our 3 down players in Smith and Lee. The third part time LB has always been a cheapout.

I honestly agree. I’d rather defense. But it seems we’re going wideout. Unless it’s to throw everyone off. Which it seems unlikely

 

[Silver N Blue]

The consistent pattern over the last 10-15 years is that the Cowboys telegraph their draft intentions by who they sign in free agency. For example,

• in 2008, the Cowboys signed Marion Barber to a big $45M contract extension AND drafted Felix Jones in the 1st round.
• In 2010, they signed Miles Austin to a big $57M contract AND spent a 1st round pick on Dez Bryant.
• In 2011, they signed Doug Free to a large $32M contract AND drafted Tyron Smith in the 1st round
• In 2012, they signed Brandon Carr to a $50M contract AND drafted Mo Claiborne in the 1st round
• In 2014, they signed Jeremy Mincey to a Free agent deal AND drafted DeMarcus Lawrence
• In 2015, they signed Greg Hardy to a Free agent deal AND drafted Randy Gregory
• In 2016, they signed Alfred Morris AND drafted Ezekiel Elliott in the 1st round.

When the Cowboys focus on a position in Free Agency, more often than not they ALSO focus on the same position in the draft. So what has been the focus of the Cowboys during this Free Agency Season?

1. Defensive Line - DeMarcus Lawrence, David Irving, Brian Price, Kony Ealy
2. Offensive Line - Marcus Martin, Joe Looney, Cameron Fleming, (and maybe a big extension for Zack Martin will happen also.)
3. Wide Receiver - Allen Hurns, Deonte Thompson
4. Linebacker - Joe Thomas

What positions have they NOT focused on?

1. Tight End
2. Defensive Back
3. Running Back
4. Quarterback

Although it may seem counter-intuitive to many pundits and fans, based on the Cowboys habits and patterns, they will most likely focus on the Defensive Line, Offensive Line, Wide Receiver and Linebacker in the upcoming draft. That is because the majority of those free agent contracts are short 1 and 2 year deals. The Cowboys prefer to build through the draft, and use free agents as a BRIDGE to the future, instead of trying to find long-term starters. It's cheaper that way, and you don't get trapped with aging stars like the Cowboys used to do.

So, as much as you may like the signings of Hurns, Ealy, Thompson, and Fleming, keep in mind they may just be 1-2 year rentals in the eyes of the Cowboys. Rather than fill OTHER holes in the draft, the Cowboys free agents are an indication of how they will draft. They almost always double up.

The exception of course is when they resign their own free agents to long-term deals. But you can easily pick out the exceptions because of the length of the contracts. The other exception occurred last year, when the Cowboys picked 4 defensive backs in the draft to retool. But even then, they signed Carroll to a free agent deal, just in case they needed a veteran BRIDGE before the rookies were ready to take over.

Good post

 

[jrumann59]

That's my understanding too. It is what it is. Good chance we take Ridley if he falls to us.

It would be dumb to draft Ridley or any WR in 1st this draft, Ridley by most experts is a high end #2 and if you believe many on these boards that is all the Dallas WR corp is full of #2s and #3s