Fun with Dallas on Third Down

[Gryphon]

Fun with Dallas on Third Down
from Football Outsiders

I’m working on a sidebar for ESPN The Magazine about how boom-and-bust running backs often leave their teams in third-and-long situations. So I went and did a sort on average yards to go on third down this season. Normally when I say “third down,” I mean “third down and the occasional fourth down.” This time I did just third down because most fourth down opportunities are short-yardage.

Here are the teams with the fewest yards to go on third down this year:

IND 5.0
HOU 5.4
BAL 5.5
NE 5.7

That makes sense. The Colts have a great running game. The Texans and Patriots love to throw short timing routes on first down to get a few yards. The Ravens love to throw those routes if they are in second-and-long.

Here are the teams with the most yards to go on third down this year:

DAL 8.6
SF 8.3
KC 8.0
MIA 7.8

OK, Miami and San Francisco have horrible offenses this year, Kansas City is getting nothing from Larry Johnson, so those make sense. What is Dallas doing here? How is that offense playing so well when they are constantly stuck in third-and-long?

If you have access to the DVOA Premium Database, you can sort 2007 stats by down, so you know the answer. Here are the top third/fourth down offensive DVOA ratings so far this year:

DAL 90.0%
PIT 44.9%
ARI 44.1%
NE 43.5%
NYJ 43.1%

Wait. Here’s passing only:

DAL 133.1%
NYJ 61.6%
NE 61.3%
DEN 56.3%
SEA 53.0%

Wow. That is a serious, serious gap.

Now, I am not saying that Tony Romo is doing it with smoke-and-mirrors. I am not saying that Dallas won’t win the NFC. I am not saying that Dallas won’t still be one of the top three offenses in the league by the end of the season. I am not saying that Dallas will lose to New England in two weeks.

However, that third-down performance is totally and completely unsustainable, and when it comes back to earth, the Cowboys will not look as formidable as they do now. No team has ever put up a third-down passing DVOA over 100%. Only three teams have ever been over 75%: the 1999 Rams (76.4%), the 2004 Vikings (88.7%), and the 2006 Colts (93.1%).

Two more notes:

1) The Colts are 12th on third downs (22.2% DVOA). The “third-down rebound effect” does not exist during the season the same way it exists between seasons, but given the Colts’ history, I think it is safe to say that they are going to be better than this on third downs when the season is over. Which means their offense is underperforming right now. Yikes.

2) Why are the Cowboys in third-and-long so much? Let’s look at rushing on first downs:

Julius Jones: 30 carries, 104 yards
Marion Barber: 22 carries, 202 yards

Seriously, what will it take for the Cowboys to actually let Barber start?

 

[tomson75]

Those third down stats are heavily skewed by the inordinate number of penalties we were slapped with in the first 2-3 games. I doubt this team will need to sustian those numbers, as it seems we've already curbed many of our earlier mistakes.

 

[SMCowboy]

Those third down stats are heavily skewed by the inordinate number of penalties we were slapped with in the first 2-3 games. I doubt this team will need to sustian those numbers, as it seems we've already curbed many of our earlier mistakes.

Exactly, we had a TON of 3rd and 5's become 3rd and 15's the first few games of the season.

 

[YosemiteSam]

It's also due to sputtering out of the gate. The Cowboys aren't going to keep this up. Their offense has shown the ability to roll, and they will figure out how to get it moving earlier in the game.

 

[bobtheflob]

Also we tend to get a lot of yards on our successful plays. We're not a team that gets 4 yards on first down then 3 on second. We're a team that picks up 15+ yards like it's nothing. We just don't see too many 3rd downs when we're rolling.

Romo's stats back that up. He's got lots of yards but a very pedestrian completion percentage. That's because he throws down field so when he does throw completions, the yards come in chunks.

 

[AsthmaField]

Yep. We skip from 1st down to 1st down on a lot of drives. From 2nd down to 1st, too. That keeps us out of a lot of 3rd down situations.

Many of the 3rd that we've been in have been 3rd and long, because of the penalties, like everyone is saying. I say that stops too, pretty much.

 

[theogt]

Romo = Mr. Third Down. It's really odd, but when it's 3rd and 12, you can actually expect us to make it. Just weird.

 

[Doomsday101]

Romo = Mr. Third Down. It's really odd, but when it's 3rd and 12, you can actually expect us to make it. Just weird.

I agree. Although I do hope we throw out that 3rd and 4 play we ran last week aginst the Rams.

 

[Cajuncowboy]

Romo = Mr. Third Down. It's really odd, but when it's 3rd and 12, you can actually expect us to make it. Just weird.

I agree, it's very Staubach-esque.

Staubach was the only QB, Aikman included, who I had 100% confidence that we would either convert or score each time he dropped back no matter the yardage needed.

 

[theogt]

I agree, it's very Staubach-esque.

Staubach was the only QB, Aikman included, who I had 100% confidence that we would either convert or score each time he dropped back no matter the yardage needed.

What I love is when he gets time to stand in the pocket. His play on the run is fascinating, but when he has time to stand there he can pick any defense apart. If he stands clean in the pocket, just as soon as he begins his throwing motion I think to myself, "Bam, that's a 20 yard pass."

Kinda like Peyton. The second he begins to throws it, you know you're in trouble. The only way you can stop him is to keep him from throwing the ball altogether. And with Tony's feet, that's damn near impossible.

 

[5Stars]

What I love is when he gets time to stand in the pocket. His play on the run is fascinating, but when he has time to stand there he can pick any defense apart. If he stands clean in the pocket, just as soon as he begins his throwing motion I think to myself, "Bam, that's a 20 yard pass."

Kinda like Peyton. The second he begins to throws it, you know you're in trouble. The only way you can stop him is to keep him from throwing the ball altogether. And with Tony's feet, that's damn near impossible.

Wait...are you saying that Peyton has Romo's feet, or that Romo throws with his feet...?

You can be so confusing at times! I think you are in the perfect line of work, my friend!!

 

[theogt]

Wait...are you saying that Peyton has Romo's feet, or that Romo throws with his feet...?

You can be so confusing at times! I think you are in the perfect line of work, my friend!!

I was saying that Romo is like Peyton in that if they're throwing the ball, they're making plays. The only way to stop them is to keep them from throwing the ball (i.e., sacking or having them throw it away). But with Romo's feet that's impossible.

 

[5Stars]

I was saying that Romo is like Peyton in that if they're throwing the ball, they're making plays. The only way to stop them is to keep them from throwing the ball (i.e., sacking or having them throw it away). But with Romo's feet that's impossible.

:laugh1:

I know exactely what you were saying...I just felt like poking your ribs!

Also, I agree with you...getting to Romo is going to be hard, and when he does throw he's not looking to the dump pass most of the time, he's looking for the downfield play...