CFZ Fun With Numbers

[Spottswoode]

I Want To Play A Game

Let's see if we can put our biases aside for one thread and use our collective wisdom to see if there could be underlying reasons for Dak's performance drop.

Below are some random advanced metrics which I dropped into a spreadsheet, applied a few formulas, and produced the charts.

A brief description of each of the 4 sections:

1. QBR Tier - straight from the ESPN site using their definitions for Elite (blue) and Good (orange). The first 2 rows under each year is the number of QB's in each category for that year. The 3rd row is the QBR for Dak in the appropriate tier color. The 4th row is his overall QBR ranking for that year.
2. Misc. passing stats - self explanatory...I included Dak's QBR for comparison. There may be other useful metrics but these were the ones I chose.
3. Pass distribution by year - self explanatory (QBR included)
4. Pass distribution by position - same data as section 3 but by position v year (QBR included).

A few additional caveats:

• I used QBR as the primary metric to compare statistical results. If you don't like QBR, screw you...do your own spreadsheet.
• I did not include stats for 2020 as the sample size was too small due to injury. FYI, prior to the 2020 injury, Dak was above 70 in QBR.
• For ease of comparison, I took the 12 games played in 2022 and extrapolated to 16 games. IMO, 12 games is a large enough sample size to extrapolate.
• I am not including my thoughts (for now) as I don't want to bias others opinions.
• I lied, I am going to include 1 thought to establish a baseline. Prior to the injury, Dak was a top 4 NFL QB relative to QBR in 3 of 4 years. Post injury, he has not regained his form. Again, if you don't like QBR, kick rocks.

The mission, should you choose to accept it:

• Putting personal biases aside, is it possible to identify possible underlying reasons for Dak's drop in performance using basic advanced passing stats. If folks see something that warrants a deeper dive on the rushing side, I may pull that data at a later date.
• For those who are Cowboys historians, feel free to consider things that happened during the years (coaching, scheme, sucky players, etc. etc.) that might partially explain performance.

Final Thought:

For anyone not paying attention, yes, I did just create a post that included a reference to SAW and MISSION IMPOSSIBLE.​

​

DAMN IT FEELS GOOD TO BE A GANGSTA​

​

​

QBR Tier	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
Elite 60+	8	12	14	13	11	11	13
Good 55-60	6	6	4	5	6	5	4
QBR Dak	57.9	60.5	NA	71.9	55.2	69.9	77.6
NFL Rank	#12	#11	NA	#4	#17	#4	#3
Year	Team Record	QBR Dak	% Drives TD Pass	% Drives Any Score	% Drives Int	TD Balance R v P %	% Passes Dropped	% Passes Bad	% Passes On Tgt	Pocket Time	% Pocket Pressure	% Sacks
2016	13-3	77.6	5.0%	43.9%	0.9%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-
2017	9-7	69.9	4.5%	36.3%	2.7%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-
2018	10-6	55.2	4.2%	37.9%	1.5%	37%	4.3%	17.3%	NA	2.4	29.1%	9.6%
2019	8-8	71.9	5.0%	44.6%	1.8%	38%	6.2%	14.8%	77.6%	2.6	18.8%	3.7%
2020	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2021	12-5	60.5	6.2%	43.8%	1.7%	29%	6.9%	14.9%	77.8%	2.4	19.2%	4.8%
2022	12-5	57.9	5.8%	41.5%	3.8%	44%	6.4%	17.3%	76.3%	2.5	20.0%	4.8%
PASS DIST BY YEAR
Year	QBR Dak	Pos	% Targets	% Rec	Catch %	% TD's
2022	57.9	WR	70%	67%	60%	66%
		TE	18%	20%	69%	26%
		RB	12%	14%	73%	9%
2021	60.5	WR	66%	62%	66%	64%
		TE	14%	15%	74%	28%
		RB	20%	22%	78%	8%
2019	71.9	WR	62%	58%	63%	67%
		TE	22%	24%	75%	23%
		RB	16%	18%	76%	10%
2018	55.2	WR	61%	56%	64%	68%
		TE	18%	19%	74%	18%
		RB	21%	24%	80%	14%
2017	69.9	WR	65%	60%	59%	59%
		TE	20%	23%	70%	27%
		RB	15%	17%	74%	14%
2016	77.6	WR	61%	58%	65%	80%
		TE	23%	25%	72%	16%
		RB	16%	17%	73%	4%
PASS DIST BY POSITION
Year	QBR Dak	Pos	% Tgts	% Rec	% Catch	% TD's
2022	57.9	WR	70%	67%	60%	66%
2021	60.5	WR	66%	62%	66%	64%
2019	71.9	WR	62%	58%	63%	67%
2018	55.2	WR	61%	56%	64%	68%
2017	69.9	WR	65%	60%	59%	59%
2016	77.6	WR	61%	58%	65%	80%
Year	QBR Dak	Pos	% Tgts	% Rec	Ctch %	% TD's
2022	57.9	TE	18%	20%	69%	26%
2021	60.5	TE	14%	15%	74%	28%
2019	71.9	TE	22%	24%	75%	23%
2018	55.2	TE	18%	19%	74%	18%
2017	69.9	TE	20%	23%	70%	27%
2016	77.6	TE	23%	25%	72%	16%
Year	QBR Dak	Pos	% Tgts	% Rec	Ctch %	% TD's
2022	57.9	RB	12%	14%	73%	9%
2021	60.5	RB	20%	22%	78%	8%
2019	71.9	RB	16%	18%	76%	10%
2018	55.2	RB	21%	24%	80%	14%
2017	69.9	RB	15%	17%	74%	14%
2016	77.6	RB	16%	17%	73%	4%

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

I always appreciate the statistical elements to arguments like this.

I think the only takeaway is that, last year, he was throwing more to worse players than in the past. The lack of threats at WR allowed teams to dedicate coverage to underneath stuff and Pollard so those easy targets just weren't there. It's the inverse of 2019. That shouldn't be surprising to anyone.

 

[Maxmadden]

No but, thanks for the effort

 

[Spottswoode]

I always appreciate the statistical elements to arguments like this.

I think the only takeaway is that, last year, he was throwing more to worse players than in the past. The lack of threats at WR allowed teams to dedicate coverage to underneath stuff and Pollard so those easy targets just weren't there. It's the inverse of 2019. That shouldn't be surprising to anyone.

I agree but it is interesting that last year both his WR target % and WR reception % were the highest of his career. I don’t know if he was forcing the ball to them, didn’t have confidence in his RB’s & TE’s, or if it was something else.

Another thing I found interesting was his 2 best QBR years were 2016 & 2019, both above 70 which is elite of the elites.
His distribution totals those years were almost identical (62, 22, 16 vs 61, 23, 16).

Also, his 3 highest QBR years all had TE targets above 20%.
Last year he had the lowest RB targets of his career and his 2nd lowest QBR.

Maybe he is most effective when he spreads the ball around.

 

[Spottswoode]

No but, thanks for the effort

Thanks for the comment. It’s always great to hear from the gallery.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

The fact Dak threw less to RBs last year despite the WR/TE issues AND Pollard having his breakout year is really surprising

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

I agree but it is interesting that last year both his WR target % and WR reception % were the highest of his career. I don’t know if he was forcing the ball to them, didn’t have confidence in his RB’s & TE’s, or if it was something else.

Another thing I found interesting was his 2 best QBR years were 2016 & 2019, both above 70 which is elite of the elites.
His distribution totals those years were almost identical (62, 22, 16 vs 61, 23, 16).

Also, his 3 highest QBR years all had TE targets above 20%.
Last year he had the lowest RB targets of his career and his 2nd lowest QBR.

Maybe he is most effective when he spreads the ball around.

The years he was most effective was when he had his most effective wideouts. The distribution to RBs and TEs is a product of coverage going to WRs downfield.

 

[DandyDon52]

his 2 best years were when te was 22-23%

 

[Spottswoode]

The years he was most effective was when he had his most effective wideouts. The distribution to RBs and TEs is a product of coverage going to WRs downfield.

2016 receivers (highest QBR of career)

Cole Beasley - 6 starts, 75 receptions
Dez Bryant - 13 starts, 50 receptions
Terrance Williams - 15 starts, 44 receptions
Brice Butler - 3 starts, 16 receptions

2019 receivers (2nd highest QBR of career)

Amari Cooper - 16 starts, 79 receptions
Michael Gallup - 12 starts, 66 receptions
Randall Cobb - 6 starts, 55 receptions
Tavon Austin - 0 starts, 13 receptions

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

2016 receivers (highest QBR of career)

Cole Beasley - 6 starts, 75 receptions
Dez Bryant - 13 starts, 50 receptions
Terrance Williams - 15 starts, 44 receptions
Brice Butler - 3 starts, 16 receptions

2019 receivers (2nd highest QBR of career)

Amari Cooper - 16 starts, 79 receptions
Michael Gallup - 12 starts, 66 receptions
Randall Cobb - 6 starts, 55 receptions
Tavon Austin - 0 starts, 13 receptions

Fwiw, the 2019 group also lead the league in drops.

 

[Spottswoode]

2017 WR’s (3rd best QBR of career)
Bryant - 69
Williams - 53
Beasley - 36

2018 WR’s (worst QBR of career)
Beasley - 65
Cooper - 53
Gallup - 33

 

[Spottswoode]

Fwiw, the 2019 group also lead the league in drops.

But interestingly, the % drops have continued to get worse since 2019. Both 2021 & 2022 were worse than 2019 from a % standpoint.

 

[Spottswoode]

his 2 best years were when te was 22-23%

Another interesting observation is the worst QBR of his career (2018) was the year Witten decided he wanted to be Dandy Don.

2017 - 69.9 (#4 in QBR… with Witten)​

2018 - 55.2 (#17 in QBR… without Witten)​

2019 - 71.9 (#4 in QBR…with Witten)​

​

The only years Dak hasn’t had an elite QBR are the years he didn’t have Witten.

I’m wondering if he needs a possession type security blanket at TE to maximize his effectiveness..

 

[CowboyRoy]

I Want To Play A Game

Let's see if we can put our biases aside for one thread and use our collective wisdom to see if there could be underlying reasons for Dak's performance drop.

Below are some random advanced metrics which I dropped into a spreadsheet, applied a few formulas, and produced the charts.

A brief description of each of the 4 sections:

1. QBR Tier - straight from the ESPN site using their definitions for Elite (blue) and Good (orange). The first 2 rows under each year is the number of QB's in each category for that year. The 3rd row is the QBR for Dak in the appropriate tier color. The 4th row is his overall QBR ranking for that year.
2. Misc. passing stats - self explanatory...I included Dak's QBR for comparison. There may be other useful metrics but these were the ones I chose.
3. Pass distribution by year - self explanatory (QBR included)
4. Pass distribution by position - same data as section 3 but by position v year (QBR included).

A few additional caveats:

• I used QBR as the primary metric to compare statistical results. If you don't like QBR, screw you...do your own spreadsheet.
• I did not include stats for 2020 as the sample size was too small due to injury. FYI, prior to the 2020 injury, Dak was above 70 in QBR.
• For ease of comparison, I took the 12 games played in 2022 and extrapolated to 16 games. IMO, 12 games is a large enough sample size to extrapolate.
• I am not including my thoughts (for now) as I don't want to bias others opinions.
• I lied, I am going to include 1 thought to establish a baseline. Prior to the injury, Dak was a top 4 NFL QB relative to QBR in 3 of 4 years. Post injury, he has not regained his form. Again, if you don't like QBR, kick rocks.

The mission, should you choose to accept it:

• Putting personal biases aside, is it possible to identify possible underlying reasons for Dak's drop in performance using basic advanced passing stats. If folks see something that warrants a deeper dive on the rushing side, I may pull that data at a later date.
• For those who are Cowboys historians, feel free to consider things that happened during the years (coaching, scheme, sucky players, etc. etc.) that might partially explain performance.

Final Thought:

For anyone not paying attention, yes, I did just create a post that included a reference to SAW and MISSION IMPOSSIBLE.​

​

DAMN IT FEELS GOOD TO BE A GANGSTA​

​

​

QBR Tier	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
Elite 60+	8	12	14	13	11	11	13
Good 55-60	6	6	4	5	6	5	4
QBR Dak	57.9	60.5	NA	71.9	55.2	69.9	77.6
NFL Rank	#12	#11	NA	#4	#17	#4	#3
Year	Team Record	QBR Dak	% Drives TD Pass	% Drives Any Score	% Drives Int	TD Balance R v P %	% Passes Dropped	% Passes Bad	% Passes On Tgt	Pocket Time	% Pocket Pressure	% Sacks
2016	13-3	77.6	5.0%	43.9%	0.9%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-
2017	9-7	69.9	4.5%	36.3%	2.7%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-
2018	10-6	55.2	4.2%	37.9%	1.5%	37%	4.3%	17.3%	NA	2.4	29.1%	9.6%
2019	8-8	71.9	5.0%	44.6%	1.8%	38%	6.2%	14.8%	77.6%	2.6	18.8%	3.7%
2020	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2021	12-5	60.5	6.2%	43.8%	1.7%	29%	6.9%	14.9%	77.8%	2.4	19.2%	4.8%
2022	12-5	57.9	5.8%	41.5%	3.8%	44%	6.4%	17.3%	76.3%	2.5	20.0%	4.8%
PASS DIST BY YEAR
Year	QBR Dak	Pos	% Targets	% Rec	Catch %	% TD's
2022	57.9	WR	70%	67%	60%	66%
		TE	18%	20%	69%	26%
		RB	12%	14%	73%	9%
2021	60.5	WR	66%	62%	66%	64%
		TE	14%	15%	74%	28%
		RB	20%	22%	78%	8%
2019	71.9	WR	62%	58%	63%	67%
		TE	22%	24%	75%	23%
		RB	16%	18%	76%	10%
2018	55.2	WR	61%	56%	64%	68%
		TE	18%	19%	74%	18%
		RB	21%	24%	80%	14%
2017	69.9	WR	65%	60%	59%	59%
		TE	20%	23%	70%	27%
		RB	15%	17%	74%	14%
2016	77.6	WR	61%	58%	65%	80%
		TE	23%	25%	72%	16%
		RB	16%	17%	73%	4%
PASS DIST BY POSITION
Year	QBR Dak	Pos	% Tgts	% Rec	% Catch	% TD's
2022	57.9	WR	70%	67%	60%	66%
2021	60.5	WR	66%	62%	66%	64%
2019	71.9	WR	62%	58%	63%	67%
2018	55.2	WR	61%	56%	64%	68%
2017	69.9	WR	65%	60%	59%	59%
2016	77.6	WR	61%	58%	65%	80%
Year	QBR Dak	Pos	% Tgts	% Rec	Ctch %	% TD's
2022	57.9	TE	18%	20%	69%	26%
2021	60.5	TE	14%	15%	74%	28%
2019	71.9	TE	22%	24%	75%	23%
2018	55.2	TE	18%	19%	74%	18%
2017	69.9	TE	20%	23%	70%	27%
2016	77.6	TE	23%	25%	72%	16%
Year	QBR Dak	Pos	% Tgts	% Rec	Ctch %	% TD's
2022	57.9	RB	12%	14%	73%	9%
2021	60.5	RB	20%	22%	78%	8%
2019	71.9	RB	16%	18%	76%	10%
2018	55.2	RB	21%	24%	80%	14%
2017	69.9	RB	15%	17%	74%	14%
2016	77.6	RB	16%	17%	73%	4%

Dak' performance hasnt dropped. Just one year to the next. Some are a little better than others.

Yah and you used QBR because Dak is much higher in QB rating.

Your agenda is showing.

BWAAAAA and you didnt use his 2020 stats because they were incredible during that period. Cowboys broke the NFL record for offense when Dak was the QB for those 4 or 5 games. LOL

 

[Risen Star]

I hate lazy posts like this.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I Want To Play A Game

Let's see if we can put our biases aside for one thread and use our collective wisdom to see if there could be underlying reasons for Dak's performance drop.

Below are some random advanced metrics which I dropped into a spreadsheet, applied a few formulas, and produced the charts.

A brief description of each of the 4 sections:

1. QBR Tier - straight from the ESPN site using their definitions for Elite (blue) and Good (orange). The first 2 rows under each year is the number of QB's in each category for that year. The 3rd row is the QBR for Dak in the appropriate tier color. The 4th row is his overall QBR ranking for that year.
2. Misc. passing stats - self explanatory...I included Dak's QBR for comparison. There may be other useful metrics but these were the ones I chose.
3. Pass distribution by year - self explanatory (QBR included)
4. Pass distribution by position - same data as section 3 but by position v year (QBR included).

A few additional caveats:

• I used QBR as the primary metric to compare statistical results. If you don't like QBR, screw you...do your own spreadsheet.
• I did not include stats for 2020 as the sample size was too small due to injury. FYI, prior to the 2020 injury, Dak was above 70 in QBR.
• For ease of comparison, I took the 12 games played in 2022 and extrapolated to 16 games. IMO, 12 games is a large enough sample size to extrapolate.
• I am not including my thoughts (for now) as I don't want to bias others opinions.
• I lied, I am going to include 1 thought to establish a baseline. Prior to the injury, Dak was a top 4 NFL QB relative to QBR in 3 of 4 years. Post injury, he has not regained his form. Again, if you don't like QBR, kick rocks.

The mission, should you choose to accept it:

• Putting personal biases aside, is it possible to identify possible underlying reasons for Dak's drop in performance using basic advanced passing stats. If folks see something that warrants a deeper dive on the rushing side, I may pull that data at a later date.
• For those who are Cowboys historians, feel free to consider things that happened during the years (coaching, scheme, sucky players, etc. etc.) that might partially explain performance.

Final Thought:

For anyone not paying attention, yes, I did just create a post that included a reference to SAW and MISSION IMPOSSIBLE.​

​

DAMN IT FEELS GOOD TO BE A GANGSTA​

​

​

QBR Tier	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
Elite 60+	8	12	14	13	11	11	13
Good 55-60	6	6	4	5	6	5	4
QBR Dak	57.9	60.5	NA	71.9	55.2	69.9	77.6
NFL Rank	#12	#11	NA	#4	#17	#4	#3
Year	Team Record	QBR Dak	% Drives TD Pass	% Drives Any Score	% Drives Int	TD Balance R v P %	% Passes Dropped	% Passes Bad	% Passes On Tgt	Pocket Time	% Pocket Pressure	% Sacks
2016	13-3	77.6	5.0%	43.9%	0.9%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-
2017	9-7	69.9	4.5%	36.3%	2.7%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-
2018	10-6	55.2	4.2%	37.9%	1.5%	37%	4.3%	17.3%	NA	2.4	29.1%	9.6%
2019	8-8	71.9	5.0%	44.6%	1.8%	38%	6.2%	14.8%	77.6%	2.6	18.8%	3.7%
2020	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2021	12-5	60.5	6.2%	43.8%	1.7%	29%	6.9%	14.9%	77.8%	2.4	19.2%	4.8%
2022	12-5	57.9	5.8%	41.5%	3.8%	44%	6.4%	17.3%	76.3%	2.5	20.0%	4.8%
PASS DIST BY YEAR
Year	QBR Dak	Pos	% Targets	% Rec	Catch %	% TD's
2022	57.9	WR	70%	67%	60%	66%
		TE	18%	20%	69%	26%
		RB	12%	14%	73%	9%
2021	60.5	WR	66%	62%	66%	64%
		TE	14%	15%	74%	28%
		RB	20%	22%	78%	8%
2019	71.9	WR	62%	58%	63%	67%
		TE	22%	24%	75%	23%
		RB	16%	18%	76%	10%
2018	55.2	WR	61%	56%	64%	68%
		TE	18%	19%	74%	18%
		RB	21%	24%	80%	14%
2017	69.9	WR	65%	60%	59%	59%
		TE	20%	23%	70%	27%
		RB	15%	17%	74%	14%
2016	77.6	WR	61%	58%	65%	80%
		TE	23%	25%	72%	16%
		RB	16%	17%	73%	4%
PASS DIST BY POSITION
Year	QBR Dak	Pos	% Tgts	% Rec	% Catch	% TD's
2022	57.9	WR	70%	67%	60%	66%
2021	60.5	WR	66%	62%	66%	64%
2019	71.9	WR	62%	58%	63%	67%
2018	55.2	WR	61%	56%	64%	68%
2017	69.9	WR	65%	60%	59%	59%
2016	77.6	WR	61%	58%	65%	80%
Year	QBR Dak	Pos	% Tgts	% Rec	Ctch %	% TD's
2022	57.9	TE	18%	20%	69%	26%
2021	60.5	TE	14%	15%	74%	28%
2019	71.9	TE	22%	24%	75%	23%
2018	55.2	TE	18%	19%	74%	18%
2017	69.9	TE	20%	23%	70%	27%
2016	77.6	TE	23%	25%	72%	16%
Year	QBR Dak	Pos	% Tgts	% Rec	Ctch %	% TD's
2022	57.9	RB	12%	14%	73%	9%
2021	60.5	RB	20%	22%	78%	8%
2019	71.9	RB	16%	18%	76%	10%
2018	55.2	RB	21%	24%	80%	14%
2017	69.9	RB	15%	17%	74%	14%
2016	77.6	RB	16%	17%	73%	4%

But Ill play and it has nothing to do with your stats here.

The play of the offense or the drop in the offense can be directly related to the play of the Oline. And from 2016 to 2022 the Oline has slowly gotten worse and worse. The running game has also gotten worse and worse. Zeke has been less and less effective. Its not rocket science, its common sense football 101.

Last year you can add the lack of receiving threats and injuries to guys l like Gallup and Shultz.

Replacing Cooper with Brown is way too big of a drop off.

 

[DandyDon52]

Another interesting observation is the worst QBR of his career (2018) was the year Witten decided he wanted to be Dandy Don.

2017 - 69.9 (#4 in QBR… with Witten)​

2018 - 55.2 (#17 in QBR… without Witten)​

2019 - 71.9 (#4 in QBR…with Witten)​

​

The only years Dak hasn’t had an elite QBR are the years he didn’t have Witten.

I’m wondering if he needs a possession type security blanket at TE to maximize his effectiveness..

I think he does, which is why shultz may be missed, have to wait and see how other te's do.
TE's usually go to empty spot, stop, so it is a easy target for dak

 

[CowboyRoy]

What is wrong with you...I have no agenda with Dak and I challenge you to find one post, just one, where I have taken a position on Dak. You can’t because it doesn’t exist. Your paranoia is showing.

And his performance has dropped since he returned from injury. If you can’t see that from the statistics, I don’t know what to say.

I did not include 2020 because he played less than 1/3rd of the season, so there is not enough data to extrapolate for the entire season. I also stated that he had an elite QBR for the 5 games he did play in 2020.

I’m also guessing you just spouted off without even knowing what QBR is. If you knew, you would understand that it caps at 100 and anything above 60 is considered elite.

All of this was pointed out at the top but you seem to be so sensitive that you immediately think someone is attacking Dak.

I HAVE NO AGENDA. I AM MORE INTERESTED IN UNDERSTANDING THE WHY AND NOT GETTING INTO PISSING CONTESTS WITH SENSITIVE KARENS.

to see if there could be underlying reasons for Dak's performance drop.

Your entire thread is about Dak playing poorly. LOL

 

[CowboyRoy]

But his pocket time, his pressure %, and his sack % has seen little change.

I should have known better than to try to have an adult conversation using actual data. If you could be a little more rational and tamp down your paranoia, you might find that the tone of the board might improve. Or you could just continue to be a sensitive jerk.

Wheres the drop off buddy? 12-5, actually won a playoff game. Dak went for 300 yards and 5 TD's in the win. LOL

A year with a few more picks than usually? An outlier? Ridiculous.

 

[WhizKid]

Here is all we need to know. There have been plenty of worse QBs to get to and to even win a SB. It is well within Dak's ability to do the same.

This isn't a pro-dak comment or an anti-dak comment.

As long as the defense is on point and Dak has folks to throw to, we'll be in the conversation. Then it's about chance, risk, opportunity, luck, and some other ambiguous stuff to push us over the top.

I know you're trying to have an "adult" conversation with a bunch of glass half empty and half full folks, but how many Dak threads does it take to realize this is virtually impossible on this board? Lol