CFZ Fun With Numbers

[Spottswoode]

Wheres the drop off buddy? 12-5, actually won a playoff game. Dak went for 300 yards and 5 TD's in the win. LOL

A year with a few more picks than usually? An outlier? Ridiculous.

His QBR…did you read the post or just spout off.

You are so sensitive that you didn’t stop long enough to realize that I support Dak.

I am not a Dak hater…I think we can win with him. I am also not a Dak apologist and wanted to have a rational discussion about why I feel he hasn’t regained his elite QBR form since his return.

 

[conner01]

Dang good work
I appreciate the work you put into it

 

[zrinkill]

I see a bunch of people could not contain themselves in this thread.

 

[jazzcat22]

I can care less about the past and the stats. I am looking at this upcoming season.
This is a new season, and we will have different play calling and plays that removes much of the Garrett / Linehan / Moore predictability and insane stupid plays at the wrong time stuff.

If the OL can stay healthy, they still have a decent starting 5 OL. Depth is a concern. I don't think losing Schultz was a big deal, and they brought in Cooks. I am concerned over RB. But if Pollard is 100%, that would make me feel better.

So I am looking at this up coming season, not at what happened in the past, and what is probably an outlier of a poor season for Dak as to the INT's. As of course there is that debate at who was at fault that will never go away. So looking for Dak to rebound to his Lower INT%.

 

[Spottswoode]

I can care less about the past and the stats. I am looking at this upcoming season.
This is a new season, and we will have different play calling and plays that removes much of the Garrett / Linehan / Moore predictability and insane stupid plays at the wrong time stuff.

If the OL can stay healthy, they still have a decent starting 5 OL. Depth is a concern. I don't think losing Schultz was a big deal, and they brought in Cooks. I am concerned over RB. But if Pollard is 100%, that would make me feel better.

So I am looking at this up coming season, not at what happened in the past, and what is probably an outlier of a poor season for Dak as to the INT's. As of course there is that debate at who was at fault that will never go away. So looking for Dak to rebound to his Lower INT%.

After this response, I’m done with this post (unless you want to engage further). People on this site (even staff members) are obviously more concerned with being outraged than having an open discussion about how analytics may provide some insights on areas of opportunity. In this case, it was specifically about QBR and efficiency.

And to suggest that reviewing the past, whether it be trends or tendencies, successes or failures, etc. etc. is a useless exercise is an odd position in any area of life, whether it be football or backgammon. To me, that is how things continue to evolve and develop.

I share many of your concerns about OL and depth and Schultz and all the other things you shared. However, if you read the post, surely at some point you realized that was not the focus. I’m fairly certain there are a number of threads where you could have vented about your concerns.

And I’m sure you also realize that the purpose was not to engage in a fault finding mission. I do have Dak discussions on occasion but you won’t find one case where I have engaged in anti Dak discussions or fault finding missions. Like it or not, haters need to accept that he is our QB and no amount of whining and complaining is going to change that reality. Let them be miserable.

I am more interested in accepting the reality and having honest discussions on how we might improve what we have. Those discussions are not going to change the realities either but at least it produces more thoughtful and engaging discussions. If folks don’t want to engage, fine. It doesn’t hurt my feelings one bit.

For some reason, it seems like you started with a mindset that somehow I am your enemy or that I must have some sore of Dak bias, neither of which are true. I am fine with posters like @zrinkill or @Risen Star making snide comments…that’s to be expected. It’s a Schlick and an attention getting exercise for one and likely an overcompensation exercise for the other.

It would have been more relevant if you would have just stopped at “I could care less about the past and stats”. It wouldn’t have bothered me one bit and could have saved you some energy and likely alleviated some angst.

 

[jazzcat22]

After this response, I’m done with this post (unless you want to engage further). People on this site (even staff members) are obviously more concerned with being outraged than having an open discussion about how analytics may provide some insights on areas of opportunity. In this case, it was specifically about QBR and efficiency.

And to suggest that reviewing the past, whether it be trends or tendencies, successes or failures, etc. etc. is a useless exercise is an odd position in any area of life, whether it be football or backgammon. To me, that is how things continue to evolve and develop.

I share many of your concerns about OL and depth and Schultz and all the other things you shared. However, if you read the post, surely at some point you realized that was not the focus. I’m fairly certain there are a number of threads where you could have vented about your concerns.

And I’m sure you also realize that the purpose was not to engage in a fault finding mission. I do have Dak discussions on occasion but you won’t find one case where I have engaged in anti Dak discussions or fault finding missions. Like it or not, haters need to accept that he is our QB and no amount of whining and complaining is going to change that reality. Let them be miserable.

I am more interested in accepting the reality and having honest discussions on how we might improve what we have. Those discussions are not going to change the realities either but at least it produces more thoughtful and engaging discussions. If folks don’t want to engage, fine. It doesn’t hurt my feelings one bit.

For some reason, it seems like you started with a mindset that somehow I am your enemy or that I must have some sore of Dak bias, neither of which are true. I am fine with posters like @zrinkill or @Risen Star making snide comments…that’s to be expected. It’s a Schlick and an attention getting exercise for one and likely an overcompensation exercise for the other.

It would have been more relevant if you would have just stopped at “I could care less about the past and stats”. It wouldn’t have bothered me one bit and could have saved you some energy and likely alleviated some angst.

What are you talking about?
I made a comment in response to all responses. Not to your OP only. I appreciate the effort and we need more post like this.
I did not take your post as anti Dak in anyway.

I was just commenting, I look forward this season, and do not care what past stats are as to the anti Dak people using one season as an agenda.

 

[Spottswoode]

What are you talking about?
I made a comment in response to all responses. Not to your OP only. I appreciate the effort and we need more post like this.
I did not take your post as anti Dak in anyway.

I was just commenting, I look forward this season, and do not care what past stats are as to the anti Dak people using one season as an agenda.

My bad and my apologies. I obviously wrongly assumed that since it was my post and it focused on past stats, your response about your lack of interest in the past and stats was focused on the post. This site has so many insecure and toxic posters that it’s easy to assume negative intent. That is something I will be more aware of moving forward.

I will admit that I have taken a more aggressive approach with those who diminish and ridicule others. Interestingly that has led to my first benching. Who knew that the dismissive tough guys could get so triggered by the word moron that they would report me.

I appreciate your level headed response. It would have been easy to go off when your intent was interpreted wrongly.

 

[jazzcat22]

My bad and my apologies. I obviously wrongly assumed that since it was my post and it focused on past stats, your response about your lack of interest in the past and stats was focused on the post. This site has so many insecure and toxic posters that it’s easy to assume negative intent. That is something I will be more aware of moving forward.

I will admit that I have taken a more aggressive approach with those who diminish and ridicule others. Interestingly that has led to my first benching. Who knew that the dismissive tough guys could get so triggered by the word moron that they would report me.

I appreciate your level headed response. It would have been easy to go off when your intent was interpreted wrongly.

All good.

 

[zrinkill]

I am fine with posters like @zrinkill or @Risen Star making snide comments

You sure know a lot about posters here, when you joined less than 2 months ago ........ or are you someone back with a new username (and IP)?

 

[jazzcat22]

I Want To Play A Game

Let's see if we can put our biases aside for one thread and use our collective wisdom to see if there could be underlying reasons for Dak's performance drop.

Below are some random advanced metrics which I dropped into a spreadsheet, applied a few formulas, and produced the charts.

A brief description of each of the 4 sections:

1. QBR Tier - straight from the ESPN site using their definitions for Elite (blue) and Good (orange). The first 2 rows under each year is the number of QB's in each category for that year. The 3rd row is the QBR for Dak in the appropriate tier color. The 4th row is his overall QBR ranking for that year.
2. Misc. passing stats - self explanatory...I included Dak's QBR for comparison. There may be other useful metrics but these were the ones I chose.
3. Pass distribution by year - self explanatory (QBR included)
4. Pass distribution by position - same data as section 3 but by position v year (QBR included).

A few additional caveats:

• I used QBR as the primary metric to compare statistical results. If you don't like QBR, screw you...do your own spreadsheet.
• I did not include stats for 2020 as the sample size was too small due to injury. FYI, prior to the 2020 injury, Dak was above 70 in QBR.
• For ease of comparison, I took the 12 games played in 2022 and extrapolated to 16 games. IMO, 12 games is a large enough sample size to extrapolate.
• I am not including my thoughts (for now) as I don't want to bias others opinions.
• I lied, I am going to include 1 thought to establish a baseline. Prior to the injury, Dak was a top 4 NFL QB relative to QBR in 3 of 4 years. Post injury, he has not regained his form. Again, if you don't like QBR, kick rocks.

The mission, should you choose to accept it:

• Putting personal biases aside, is it possible to identify possible underlying reasons for Dak's drop in performance using basic advanced passing stats. If folks see something that warrants a deeper dive on the rushing side, I may pull that data at a later date.
• For those who are Cowboys historians, feel free to consider things that happened during the years (coaching, scheme, sucky players, etc. etc.) that might partially explain performance.

Final Thought:

For anyone not paying attention, yes, I did just create a post that included a reference to SAW and MISSION IMPOSSIBLE.​

​

DAMN IT FEELS GOOD TO BE A GANGSTA​

​

​

QBR Tier	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
Elite 60+	8	12	14	13	11	11	13
Good 55-60	6	6	4	5	6	5	4
QBR Dak	57.9	60.5	NA	71.9	55.2	69.9	77.6
NFL Rank	#12	#11	NA	#4	#17	#4	#3
Year	Team Record	QBR Dak	% Drives TD Pass	% Drives Any Score	% Drives Int	TD Balance R v P %	% Passes Dropped	% Passes Bad	% Passes On Tgt	Pocket Time	% Pocket Pressure	% Sacks
2016	13-3	77.6	5.0%	43.9%	0.9%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-
2017	9-7	69.9	4.5%	36.3%	2.7%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-
2018	10-6	55.2	4.2%	37.9%	1.5%	37%	4.3%	17.3%	NA	2.4	29.1%	9.6%
2019	8-8	71.9	5.0%	44.6%	1.8%	38%	6.2%	14.8%	77.6%	2.6	18.8%	3.7%
2020	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2021	12-5	60.5	6.2%	43.8%	1.7%	29%	6.9%	14.9%	77.8%	2.4	19.2%	4.8%
2022	12-5	57.9	5.8%	41.5%	3.8%	44%	6.4%	17.3%	76.3%	2.5	20.0%	4.8%
PASS DIST BY YEAR
Year	QBR Dak	Pos	% Targets	% Rec	Catch %	% TD's
2022	57.9	WR	70%	67%	60%	66%
		TE	18%	20%	69%	26%
		RB	12%	14%	73%	9%
2021	60.5	WR	66%	62%	66%	64%
		TE	14%	15%	74%	28%
		RB	20%	22%	78%	8%
2019	71.9	WR	62%	58%	63%	67%
		TE	22%	24%	75%	23%
		RB	16%	18%	76%	10%
2018	55.2	WR	61%	56%	64%	68%
		TE	18%	19%	74%	18%
		RB	21%	24%	80%	14%
2017	69.9	WR	65%	60%	59%	59%
		TE	20%	23%	70%	27%
		RB	15%	17%	74%	14%
2016	77.6	WR	61%	58%	65%	80%
		TE	23%	25%	72%	16%
		RB	16%	17%	73%	4%
PASS DIST BY POSITION
Year	QBR Dak	Pos	% Tgts	% Rec	% Catch	% TD's
2022	57.9	WR	70%	67%	60%	66%
2021	60.5	WR	66%	62%	66%	64%
2019	71.9	WR	62%	58%	63%	67%
2018	55.2	WR	61%	56%	64%	68%
2017	69.9	WR	65%	60%	59%	59%
2016	77.6	WR	61%	58%	65%	80%
Year	QBR Dak	Pos	% Tgts	% Rec	Ctch %	% TD's
2022	57.9	TE	18%	20%	69%	26%
2021	60.5	TE	14%	15%	74%	28%
2019	71.9	TE	22%	24%	75%	23%
2018	55.2	TE	18%	19%	74%	18%
2017	69.9	TE	20%	23%	70%	27%
2016	77.6	TE	23%	25%	72%	16%
Year	QBR Dak	Pos	% Tgts	% Rec	Ctch %	% TD's
2022	57.9	RB	12%	14%	73%	9%
2021	60.5	RB	20%	22%	78%	8%
2019	71.9	RB	16%	18%	76%	10%
2018	55.2	RB	21%	24%	80%	14%
2017	69.9	RB	15%	17%	74%	14%
2016	77.6	RB	16%	17%	73%	4%

I went back to read this again and look at it a bit closer. Good work. And I am a big fan of using spreadsheets.

My question is, did you considerer adding the regular QB rating system as opposed to QBR? To view both side by side.
I have nothing against QBR. It is just I am curious how the two systems compare. Is there any correlation between to two that supports each other, or conflicts with each other.

I never looked at both close enough, nor concerned myself with it enough to look at it. So just curious if you compared them or if anyone else has.

 

[Spottswoode]

I went back to read this again and look at it a bit closer. Good work. And I am a big fan of using spreadsheets.

My question is, did you considerer adding the regular QB rating system as opposed to QBR? To view both side by side.
I have nothing against QBR. It is just I am curious how the two systems compare. Is there any correlation between to two that supports each other, or conflicts with each other.

I never looked at both close enough, nor concerned myself with it enough to look at it. So just curious if you compared them or if anyone else has.

The main reason I used QBR because it used a more holistic view of QB performance in it’s calculations. I didn’t even think to try the other rating.

I have another post focused on TE’s where I also used QBR. What I found interesting and the reason I shared with the board was that every year Dak has had an elite QBR, he also a TE target rate of +20% while every year he wasn’t elite, his TE target rate was <15%. Maybe I should run the numbers again using the regular rating to see if the same trend holds true

I realize that doesn’t necessarily reflect causality and there are other variables but the 100% correlation was interesting.

 

[Spottswoode]

You sure know a lot about posters here, when you joined less than 2 months ago ........ or are you someone back with a new username (and IP)?

No need to jump to conspiracy theories…everyone on this board was a <2 month member at one point.

You are the second person who has made this history length comment and both of you suggested a reincarnated poster.

Maybe if the professional agitators were more cordial to other posters, they wouldn’t be suffering from PTSD from past experiences and have to look for conspiracies.

 

[zrinkill]

No need to jump to conspiracy theories…everyone on this board was a <2 month member at one point.

You are the second person who has made this history length comment and both of you suggested a reincarnated poster.

Maybe if the professional agitators were more cordial to other posters, they wouldn’t be suffering from PTSD from past experiences and have to look for conspiracies.

Sure

This is the first time I have conversed with you ...... yet you brought my name up out of the blue.

But anyway carry on ....... people always reveal themselves in the end anyway.

 

[Spottswoode]

Sure

This is the first time I have conversed with you ...... yet you brought my name up out of the blue.

But anyway carry on ....... people always reveal themselves in the end anyway.

I see a bunch of people could not contain themselves in this thread.

Is this not your comment from above?

I’m sure you are well aware that I asked for others thoughts. Are you saying you didn’t read the post? Why did you even comment if you didn’t read the post? You know it was my post right?

Don’t pretend you weren’t making a derrisive comment about the fact that there has been little response. It’s kind of pathetic to throw around snide remarks but complain or feign surprise when called out.. And it shouldn’t be surprising to you that you have a pretty consistent theme and you don’t have to be a seasoned member to notice, I picked it up within a week.

The reason I pointed out you and Risen was because you both chose to not contribute anything to the post except dismissiveness. I know why he does it. I’m not sure why you do.

Just own it, hopefully reconsider your approach with others, and move on. I have no issues with you or Risen. But when I see someone I think is trying to be a bully or insult me or others, I’m going to say something.

 

[FanofJerry]

First and foremost...swell post.

Can anyone provide insight on QBR vs 3rd Down Passing Conversion or any other stat that can be used to discredit QB's and their clutch performances?

Looks like Dak's "good pass percentage" is consistent...but he is considered not clutch when it matters.

I am considering buying ALL-22 if it allows past seasons(doesnt look like thats available)...but I am more interested in Dak's overall liability to the production of the Offense when it matters as opposed to all season stats.

Buying ALL-22 seems like a mistake if I dont know anything about formations on either side of the ball...but I would like to know if Dak is responsible for clutch plays or mishaps based on review of the tape. Was the pass bad? Was he hurried or hurried more in certain formation situations? Does he not see the field well? Basiacally...is it Dak, the players, the play calling in certain situations, etc?

Seems like the only stat that matters is the ability to perform in clutch(when down or in playoffs)? Are his passes or decision making worse in those situations, or is it something else? QBR, I assume, is a good barometer...but does it need to be more specific? I suspect the barometer needs to be way more specific than general stats. Nothing against the thread starter.

Seems like clutch situations and situations where the team is down a 2 possessions and needs to win is where the stats matter for a QB...assuming the play calling is fair.

 

[zrinkill]

Is this not your comment from above?

I’m sure you are well aware that I asked for others thoughts. Are you saying you didn’t read the post? Why did you even comment if you didn’t read the post? You know it was my post right?

Don’t pretend you weren’t making a derrisive comment about the fact that there has been little response.

I was commenting on the fact that a bunch of people got banned in that thread ...... had nothing to do with your thread or its response rate or whatnot .... you can ask big dog cowboy what my post was referring too if you do not believe me.

But from your reaction thinking I was somehow picking on you ..... you are definitely a guy that was here before you current identity.

Anyway like I said before the first interaction I have had with you was today so .......... have fun on the board and stop playing the victim.

 

[Spottswoode]

I was commenting on the fact that a bunch of people got banned in that thread ...... had nothing to do with your thread or its response rate or whatnot .... you can ask big dog cowboy what my post was referring too if you do not believe me.

But from your reaction thinking I was somehow picking on you ..... you are definitely a guy that was here before you current identity.

Anyway like I said before the first interaction I have had with you was today so .......... have fun on the board and stop playing the victim.

I was one of the ones who got benched.

And I can guarantee you I have never been here before. We can make an avatar bet if you know of a way to confirm.

And trust me, I’m not a victim.

 

[Spottswoode]

First and foremost...swell post.

Can anyone provide insight on QBR vs 3rd Down Passing Conversion or any other stat that can be used to discredit QB's and their clutch performances?

Looks like Dak's "good pass percentage" is consistent...but he is considered not clutch when it matters.

I am considering buying ALL-22 if it allows past seasons(doesnt look like thats available)...but I am more interested in Dak's overall liability to the production of the Offense when it matters as opposed to all season stats.

Buying ALL-22 seems like a mistake if I dont know anything about formations on either side of the ball...but I would like to know if Dak is responsible for clutch plays or mishaps based on review of the tape. Was the pass bad? Was he hurried or hurried more in certain formation situations? Does he not see the field well? Basiacally...is it Dak, the players, the play calling in certain situations, etc?

Seems like the only stat that matters is the ability to perform in clutch(when down or in playoffs)? Are his passes or decision making worse in those situations, or is it something else? QBR, I assume, is a good barometer...but does it need to be more specific? I suspect the barometer needs to be way more specific than general stats. Nothing against the thread starter.

Seems like clutch situations and situations where the team is down a 2 possessions and needs to win is where the stats matter for a QB...assuming the play calling is fair.

It seems like someone had created a clutch index and if my memory is correct, I believe it had these kinds of elements.

1. QB conversion rate (it was either the 4th quarter or last drives)
2. Passer rating (I think it was the 4th quarter)

I don’t think Pro Football Reference has a specific clutch rating but they may have performance metrics by quarter and situation. You could possible back door a rating but it would take forever if you wanted to compare across the league.

I would think with all the analytics in football, there should be stats on clutch performance but I haven’t personally seen one compiled.

I agree that it would be interesting to view.

 

[Spottswoode]

First and foremost...swell post.

Can anyone provide insight on QBR vs 3rd Down Passing Conversion or any other stat that can be used to discredit QB's and their clutch performances?

Looks like Dak's "good pass percentage" is consistent...but he is considered not clutch when it matters.

I am considering buying ALL-22 if it allows past seasons(doesnt look like thats available)...but I am more interested in Dak's overall liability to the production of the Offense when it matters as opposed to all season stats.

Buying ALL-22 seems like a mistake if I dont know anything about formations on either side of the ball...but I would like to know if Dak is responsible for clutch plays or mishaps based on review of the tape. Was the pass bad? Was he hurried or hurried more in certain formation situations? Does he not see the field well? Basiacally...is it Dak, the players, the play calling in certain situations, etc?

Seems like the only stat that matters is the ability to perform in clutch(when down or in playoffs)? Are his passes or decision making worse in those situations, or is it something else? QBR, I assume, is a good barometer...but does it need to be more specific? I suspect the barometer needs to be way more specific than general stats. Nothing against the thread starter.

Seems like clutch situations and situations where the team is down a 2 possessions and needs to win is where the stats matter for a QB...assuming the play calling is fair.

I just did a quick check on NFL.com and they have some situational stats. I don’t understand the rules on posting links but if you go to NFL.com, click on players at the top, type in the name and hit that players name, click on stats, and click on situational, you will find all kinds of situational stats.

It has stats for field position, halves, quarters, point differential, margin of victory, etc. They use the regular QB rating process ((I believe QBR is an ESPN creation), but it may give you a start on what you are looking for.

Hope that helps.