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1981-82 vs. 2008-09 Commanders, A Comparison
During my usual morning reading today, I came across a USA Today article that opened by sorta-kinda comparing the possibility of the 2009 Commanders making a Super Bowl run with the 1982 Commanders that did so in a strike-shortened season.
The article points out the 1981 Commanders, like the 2008 version, finished 8-8. And that just as the 1982 Commanders entered the year with a second-year coach (Joe Gibbs) and a quarterback yet to inspire confidence in a fan base as being capable of leading a team to playoff success (Joe Theismann), so too will this year's Commanders with Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell.
The article wasn't saying it's likely this year's Commanders will make a run; it was merely drawing those two simple lines of comparison. (Though for the most optimistic of Commanders fans that is probably the best way to think about things going into the season.) But I decided to take a second look at the comparison to see just how much these two teams stack up, at least statistically on the surface.
This is as unscientific a comparison as you'll get, and by no means am I coming to any conclusions out of it. Just trying to see if/how they do compare.
A little check on pro-football-reference.com, and this is what I came up with:
1981 Points Scored: 347 points (21.7/g) -- 10th of 28 in NFL
2008 Points Scored: 265 points (16.6/g) -- 28th of 32 in NFL
1981 Points Allowed: 349 points (21.8/g) -- 16th of 28 in NFL
2008 Points Allowed: 296 points (18.5/g) -- 6th of 32 in NFL
1981 Takeaway/Giveaway: -2, 16th in NFL
2008 Takeaway/Giveaway: 0, 17th in NFL
Looking further into the comparison, you can see there is one difference that shows these two teams are going into Year 2 under much different circumstances.
Unlike the 2008 Commanders that started the season 6-2 before crashing to a 2-6 finish and .500 record, the 1981 version did it almost exactly opposite, opening the year losing six of their first seven and then winning seven of their final nine to finish the year 8-8.
The 1981 trajectory is much more comparable to Marty Schottenheimer's one year in Washington than it is Jim Zorn's first one, and indicates that this year's team doesn't have the momentum going into Year 2 that the 1982 team did.
The Theismann-Campbell comparisons are tougher to look at than just the offensive and defensive efficiency of the 1981 and 2008 teams.
Theismann was in his eighth season in 1981 and had started games in the previous five, while Campbell had started just 20 games entering last season. And the development of the passing game since Theismann's era obviously factors in.
I did two comparisons -- first, Theisman's numbers in 1977-78 when he started six and then 14 games, respectively, because I thought it could compare to Campbell's seven and 13 starts in 06-07. And then of course, a comparison between 1981 and 2008:
Theismann 77-78:
Games Started 20; Passes Cmp/Attempted 271/572; Percentage 47.4; Yards 3690; Yds/G 184.5; Yds/Cmp 13.6; TDs 20; INTs 27
Campbell 06-07:
Games Started 20; Passes Cmp/Attempted 360/624; Percentage 57.7; Yards 3997; Yds/G 199.9; Yds/Cmp 11.1; TDs 22; INTs 17
Theismann 1981 (4th year with 14 or more starts)
Games Started 16; Cmp/Att 293/496; Percentage 59.1; Yards 3568; Yds/Cmp 12.2; Yds/G 223.0; TDs 19; INTs 20; Rating 77.3
Campbell 2008 (2nd year with 13 or more starts)
Games Started 16; Cmp/Att 315/506; Percentage 62.3; Yards 3245; Yds/Cmp 10.3; Yds/G 202.8; TDs 13; INTs 6; Rating 84.3
Thoughts?
By Paul Tenorio | June 16, 2009; 2:00 PM ET
During my usual morning reading today, I came across a USA Today article that opened by sorta-kinda comparing the possibility of the 2009 Commanders making a Super Bowl run with the 1982 Commanders that did so in a strike-shortened season.
The article points out the 1981 Commanders, like the 2008 version, finished 8-8. And that just as the 1982 Commanders entered the year with a second-year coach (Joe Gibbs) and a quarterback yet to inspire confidence in a fan base as being capable of leading a team to playoff success (Joe Theismann), so too will this year's Commanders with Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell.
The article wasn't saying it's likely this year's Commanders will make a run; it was merely drawing those two simple lines of comparison. (Though for the most optimistic of Commanders fans that is probably the best way to think about things going into the season.) But I decided to take a second look at the comparison to see just how much these two teams stack up, at least statistically on the surface.
This is as unscientific a comparison as you'll get, and by no means am I coming to any conclusions out of it. Just trying to see if/how they do compare.
A little check on pro-football-reference.com, and this is what I came up with:
1981 Points Scored: 347 points (21.7/g) -- 10th of 28 in NFL
2008 Points Scored: 265 points (16.6/g) -- 28th of 32 in NFL
1981 Points Allowed: 349 points (21.8/g) -- 16th of 28 in NFL
2008 Points Allowed: 296 points (18.5/g) -- 6th of 32 in NFL
1981 Takeaway/Giveaway: -2, 16th in NFL
2008 Takeaway/Giveaway: 0, 17th in NFL
Looking further into the comparison, you can see there is one difference that shows these two teams are going into Year 2 under much different circumstances.
Unlike the 2008 Commanders that started the season 6-2 before crashing to a 2-6 finish and .500 record, the 1981 version did it almost exactly opposite, opening the year losing six of their first seven and then winning seven of their final nine to finish the year 8-8.
The 1981 trajectory is much more comparable to Marty Schottenheimer's one year in Washington than it is Jim Zorn's first one, and indicates that this year's team doesn't have the momentum going into Year 2 that the 1982 team did.
The Theismann-Campbell comparisons are tougher to look at than just the offensive and defensive efficiency of the 1981 and 2008 teams.
Theismann was in his eighth season in 1981 and had started games in the previous five, while Campbell had started just 20 games entering last season. And the development of the passing game since Theismann's era obviously factors in.
I did two comparisons -- first, Theisman's numbers in 1977-78 when he started six and then 14 games, respectively, because I thought it could compare to Campbell's seven and 13 starts in 06-07. And then of course, a comparison between 1981 and 2008:
Theismann 77-78:
Games Started 20; Passes Cmp/Attempted 271/572; Percentage 47.4; Yards 3690; Yds/G 184.5; Yds/Cmp 13.6; TDs 20; INTs 27
Campbell 06-07:
Games Started 20; Passes Cmp/Attempted 360/624; Percentage 57.7; Yards 3997; Yds/G 199.9; Yds/Cmp 11.1; TDs 22; INTs 17
Theismann 1981 (4th year with 14 or more starts)
Games Started 16; Cmp/Att 293/496; Percentage 59.1; Yards 3568; Yds/Cmp 12.2; Yds/G 223.0; TDs 19; INTs 20; Rating 77.3
Campbell 2008 (2nd year with 13 or more starts)
Games Started 16; Cmp/Att 315/506; Percentage 62.3; Yards 3245; Yds/Cmp 10.3; Yds/G 202.8; TDs 13; INTs 6; Rating 84.3
Thoughts?
By Paul Tenorio | June 16, 2009; 2:00 PM ET
