Future Cap Issues Simplified - Choose Players to Re-Sign

[xwalker]

I've done the calculations to simplify the review of new contracts for Cowboys players.

• I've already added Dak and Cooper into the calculations.
• It's your choice on new contacts for:
  • Zeke
  • Byron Jones
  • Keep/Cut Tyrone Crawford
  • Any other 2020 Cowboys Free Agent
  • Free Agents from other teams.

You have 80M to pay 12 players in the top 20 starting in 2020.

• The 80M is based on contract averages.
• The 8 shown below and players 21 to 53 take up the remaining cap space.
• The calculations to derive the 80M number are shown in the 2nd half of this post.

Starting in 2020, add 12 players (Zeke at 15.5M would be at #4)
1 Dak Prescott
2 Demarcus Lawrence
3 Amari Cooper
4 Zack Martin
5 Tyron Smith
6 Travis Frederick
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19 Leighton Vander Esch
20 L.P. Ladouceur


Options (choose from this list or free agents from other teams):
- Don't include future draft picks on rookie contracts.

• Tyrone Crawford: The cost is 8M to keep him in 2020.
• Zeke: 15M average if re-signed.

Free Agents - Medium Probability to Re-Sign

• Byron Jones
• Maliek Collins
• Anthony Brown

Free Agents Low Probability to Re-Sign

• Robert Quinn
• La'el Collins
• Randall Cobb
• Jason Witten
• Sean Lee
• Joe Thomas

Remaining Free Agents

• Christian Covington
• Jeff Heath
• Tavon Austin
• George Iloka
• Kerry Hyder
• Xavier Su'a-Filo
• Justin March
• Darian Thompson
• C.J. Goodwin
• Kavon Frazier

Calculations:
The NFL salary cap has increased about 8% on average each of the past 5 years.

Using the rate of increase over the past 5 years to project the future 5 years, the 5 year period starting with 2020 would average 232.9M.

Currently the bottom 33 players of 53 account for 16% of the cap.
- It would be difficult to squeeze this group (21-53) to below 16%.

That leaves 84% for the top 20.
Using the 232.9M number, 84% is about 195.6M on average available for the 5 years starting with 2020.

Now the average of the top 4 contracts for 2020:
21M Demarcus Lawrence
14M Zack Martin
12.2M Tyron Smith
9.4M Travis Frederick

Estimates for Dak & Cooper:
34M Dak Prescott
20M Amari Cooper

Now the top 6 contracts equal 110.6M average per year.

That leaves 85M for players 7 to 20 (14 total players).

LVE and LP will be about players 19 & 20.
2.96M Leighton Vander Esch
2.04M (estimate) L.P. Ladouceur

That leaves 80M for players 7 to 18 (12 total).

 

[sbark]

Jaylon fits in there somewhere, or am I looking at it wrong

 

[Oz-of-Cowboy-Country]

I'm a simpleton and I don't think that was simplified.

 

[xwalker]

Jaylon fits in there somewhere, or am I looking at it wrong

He is Restricted for 2020.

It's your choice on the 12 players added. You obviously have to sign some of the 12 players to short term contracts in order to sign future Cowboys free agents like Jaylon.

For instance, a player like Robert Quinn could get a 1 year deal for 2020. He would be gone by the time Jaylon is an unrestricted free agent.

 

[Oz-of-Cowboy-Country]

Jaylon fits in there somewhere, or am I looking at it wrong

Jaylon Smith's contract expires after this year. He is a restricted free agent. Having only three years under his belt. Jaylon, Jones, Dak, and Cooper are all to be resigned after this season. Due to expiring contracts.

 

[xwalker]

I'm a simpleton and I don't think that was simplified.

You have 80M per season to spend on 12 players over the 5 year period starting in 2020.

If you give out 5 year contracts to all 12 starting in 2020 then you won't have cap space for future Cowboys free agents like Jaylon Smith.

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

I don't understand why people keep treating AAVs as though they were cap charges. These calculations simply can't be done the way you guys are proposing to do them.

 

[xwalker]

I don't understand why people keep treating AAVs as though they were cap charges. These calculations simply can't be done the way you guys are proposing to do them.

All contracts for a team must average out over time to be equal to the NFL salary cap.

If the contract averages are more than the cap, the team will run out of cap space.

The true average is total paid to player on that contract divided by years played on that contract.

The contract AAV is not exactly equal to the true average unless the player plays out the contract from beginning to end.

The AAV is the closest thing that we have to the true average.

 

[Oz-of-Cowboy-Country]

The NFL salary cap has increased about 8% on average each of the past 5 years.

Using the rate of increase over the past 5 years to project the future 5 years, the 5 year period starting with 2020 would average 232.9M.

That's not the way I remember the being set. As I recall the cap has a baseline around 178 million. It goes up after they add in internet advertising and product sales. (caps, jerseys,etc.) But it comes right back down to that 178 million every year. So when we here the cap went up 10 million or 6% three years in a row that doesn't mean its constantly going up. Because it always comes back down to its baseline before going up again.

Basically they know how much they're going to make off of ESPN, FOX, etc. So the baseline is calculated off of those deals. They then add internet advertising and product sales to that baseline. Which makes the cap go up for that year.

So yes, it goes up 6% or 10 million a year but it always starts off at its baseline per year too.

That's just how I remember it.

 

[Ranching]

My head hurts! I thought I was done with homework!!

 

[jterrell]

Ultimately DAL will have to keep drafting because they can't keep everyone and they will need draftees to develop and play.
They are very likely to go cheap at TE/Safety/DT/K/P going forward.
Not that different from what they do today.

As long as they don't start gambling on guys being healthy or same forever by restructuring them to push hits off it will work out fine.
Guys like Anthony Hitchens will be allowed to leave and they'll recoup comp picks and draft more dudes.

They have the proper model because they've been doing it for 3-4 years now.

Bryon Jones, Maliek Collins and La'el Collins all feel like guys who could move on for more money but also return solid comp picks.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

aav has little to do with it. You can just backload the crap out of the thing and then cut the guy later. Look at what the Patriots just did to Tom Brady, it's very abusable.

this guy wins:

I don't understand why people keep treating AAVs as though they were cap charges. These calculations simply can't be done the way you guys are proposing to do them.

 

[xwalker]

That's not the way I remember the being set. As I recall the cap has a baseline around 178 million. It goes up after they add in internet advertising and product sales. (caps, jerseys,etc.) But it comes right back down to that 178 million every year. So when we here the cap went up 10 million or 6% three years in a row that doesn't mean its constantly going up. Because it always comes back down to its baseline before going up again.

Basically they know how much they're going to make off of ESPN, FOX, etc. So the baseline is calculated off of those deals. They then add internet advertising and product sales to that baseline. Which makes the cap go up for that year.

So yes, it goes up 6% or 10 million a year but it always starts off at its baseline per year too.

That's just how I remember it.

That is completely wrong.

There is an actual NFL cap each year. Since the past 5 years are in the past the exact cap number for each year is a known number.

When there is an exactly number for each year including this year it's easy to determine the average rate that it has increased.

It is then easy to apply that same rate of increase to the future 5 years to get and estimated cap number for each of those years. At that point adding those 5 together and dividing by 5 gives the average.

 

[xwalker]

aav has little to do with it. You can just backload the crap out of the thing and then cut the guy later. Look at what the Patriots just did to Tom Brady, it's very abusable.

this guy wins:

That's completely wrong with regards to Tom Brady.

His previous contract was set to expire in 2017.

He signed a 41M extension is 2016 to add 2018 and 2019.

If he retires after 2019 he will have made 41M more than if he had not signed the extension and retired after 2017. That means that it costs 41M to have him on the team for 2018 & 2019. That is a 20.5M AAV.

 

[dallas72]

Jaylon Smith's contract expires after this year. He is a restricted free agent. Having only three years under his belt. Jaylon, Jones, Dak, and Cooper are all to be resigned after this season. Due to expiring contracts.

Dont see Byron being resigned...our Def Coord..likes ball hawk types

 

[Oz-of-Cowboy-Country]

That is completely wrong.

There is an actual NFL cap each year. Since the past 5 years are in the past the exact cap number for each year is a known number.

When there is an exactly number for each year including this year it's easy to determine the average rate that it has increased.

It is then easy to apply that same rate of increase to the future 5 years to get and estimated cap number for each of those years. At that point adding those 5 together and dividing by 5 gives the average.

Yeah my bad Xwalker. Things changed drastically in 2013 when the brought the floor back in. Silly me. Good memory outdated info.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

That's completely wrong with regards to Tom Brady.

His previous contract was set to expire in 2017.

He signed a 41M extension is 2016 to add 2018 and 2019.

If he retires after 2019 he will have made 41M more than if he had not signed the extension and retired after 2017. That means that it costs 41M to have him on the team for 2018 & 2019. That is a 20.5M AAV.

I’m talking about the extension he signed a couple days ago

 

[xwalker]

I’m talking about the extension he signed a couple days ago

It does not matter. It's the same concept.

They added 2 years and 70M to his contract. That's 35M AAV for 2020 and 2021.

It does not matter if he gets money in 2019. The new money is 70M for 2 years. That'a 35M AAV for those years.

All money paid to players must hit the salary cap. There is no magic that makes money go away.

If a team takes a 5M cap hit in year 1 of a 2 year, 20M contract, then they must take a 15M cap hit in the 2nd year. That's 10M average regardless of how the cap hits are split between years.

 

[big dog cowboy]

I was told there would be no math.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

It does not matter. It's the same concept.

They added 2 years and 70M to his contract. That's 35M AAV for 2020 and 2021.

It does not matter if he gets money in 2019. The new money is 70M for 2 years. That'a 35M AAV for those years.

All money paid to players must hit the salary cap. There is no magic that makes money go away.

If a team takes a 5M cap hit in year 1 of a 2 year, 20M contract, then they must take a 15M cap hit in the 2nd year. That's 10M average regardless of how the cap hits are split between years.

Brady’s contract voids after this year. The money disappears beyond what is added this year. That’s the point to Zeke, you can hike up AAV at the end of his contract with huge numbers you never intend to pay him.