Garbage Time Defense

[ActualCowboysFan]

Win Probability vs scores for Dallas


vs. PHI

• Scenario: DAL 27-7 PHI. Win Pct. 94.3% --> (next play) TD PHI. DAL 27-14 PHI. DAL Win Pct. 91.9%
  
• Scenario: DAL 41-14 PHI. Win Pct. 99.9% --> (next play) TD PHI. DAL 41-21 PHI. DAL Win Pct. 99.9%

vs. CAR:

• Scenario: DAL 36-14 CAR. Win Pct. 99.9% --> (next play) TD CAR. DAL 36-21 CAR. DAL Win Pct. 98.0%
  
• Scenario: DAL 36-21 CAR. Win Pct. 99.6% --> (next play). TD CAR. DAL 36-28 CAR. DAL Win Pct. 90.7%

vs. NYG

• Scenario: DAL 34-13 NYG. Win Pct. 99.9% --> (next play) TD NYG. DAL 34-20 NYG. DAL Win Pct. 99.8%

Dallas has allowed 109 points. 35 of those points have made close to zero difference in win probability.

First Downs

Game in leverage: Dallas has given up 36 first downs. Blowouts with soft coverage in fourth quarter: Dallas has given up 32 first downs.

DVOA has Dallas as a top 8 defense for a reason. They remove a lot of the noise and Dallas is dominant on offense but this defense is severely underrated.

 

[JBS]

Win Probability vs scores for Dallas


vs. PHI

• Scenario: DAL 27-7 PHI. Win Pct. 94.3% --> (next play) TD PHI. DAL 27-14 PHI. DAL Win Pct. 91.9%
  
• Scenario: DAL 41-14 PHI. Win Pct. 99.9% --> (next play) TD PHI. DAL 41-21 PHI. DAL Win Pct. 99.9%

vs. CAR:

• Scenario: DAL 36-14 CAR. Win Pct. 99.9% --> (next play) TD CAR. DAL 36-21 CAR. DAL Win Pct. 98.0%
  
• Scenario: DAL 36-21 CAR. Win Pct. 99.6% --> (next play). TD CAR. DAL 36-28 CAR. DAL Win Pct. 90.7% (this is the lowest it would be for the remainder of the game)

vs. NYG

• Scenario: DAL 34-13 NYG. Win Pct. 99.9% --> (next play) TD NYG. DAL 34-20 NYG. DAL Win Pct. 99.8%

Dallas has allowed 109 points. 35 of those points have made close to zero difference in win probability.

First Downs

Game in leverage: Dallas has given up 36 first downs. Blowouts with soft coverage in fourth quarter: Dallas has given up 32 first downs.

DVOA has Dallas as a top 8 defense for a reason. They remove a lot of the noise and Dallas is dominant on offense but this defense is severely underrated.

I was looking for somebody to post this kind of information. Comparing how our defense performs when the game is in the balance vs when the game has been over. Thanks man.

 

[ActualCowboysFan]

Dak gave up a TD. Take out the garbage time 35 up there and the defense is giving up 15 a game.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Win Probability vs scores for Dallas


vs. PHI

• Scenario: DAL 27-7 PHI. Win Pct. 94.3% --> (next play) TD PHI. DAL 27-14 PHI. DAL Win Pct. 91.9%
  
• Scenario: DAL 41-14 PHI. Win Pct. 99.9% --> (next play) TD PHI. DAL 41-21 PHI. DAL Win Pct. 99.9%

vs. CAR:

• Scenario: DAL 36-14 CAR. Win Pct. 99.9% --> (next play) TD CAR. DAL 36-21 CAR. DAL Win Pct. 98.0%
  
• Scenario: DAL 36-21 CAR. Win Pct. 99.6% --> (next play). TD CAR. DAL 36-28 CAR. DAL Win Pct. 90.7% (this is the lowest it would be for the remainder of the game)

vs. NYG

• Scenario: DAL 34-13 NYG. Win Pct. 99.9% --> (next play) TD NYG. DAL 34-20 NYG. DAL Win Pct. 99.8%

Dallas has allowed 109 points. 35 of those points have made close to zero difference in win probability.

First Downs

Game in leverage: Dallas has given up 36 first downs. Blowouts with soft coverage in fourth quarter: Dallas has given up 32 first downs.

DVOA has Dallas as a top 8 defense for a reason. They remove a lot of the noise and Dallas is dominant on offense but this defense is severely underrated.

Good stuff.

 

[CowboyFrog]

Win Probability vs scores for Dallas


vs. PHI

• Scenario: DAL 27-7 PHI. Win Pct. 94.3% --> (next play) TD PHI. DAL 27-14 PHI. DAL Win Pct. 91.9%
  
• Scenario: DAL 41-14 PHI. Win Pct. 99.9% --> (next play) TD PHI. DAL 41-21 PHI. DAL Win Pct. 99.9%

vs. CAR:

• Scenario: DAL 36-14 CAR. Win Pct. 99.9% --> (next play) TD CAR. DAL 36-21 CAR. DAL Win Pct. 98.0%
  
• Scenario: DAL 36-21 CAR. Win Pct. 99.6% --> (next play). TD CAR. DAL 36-28 CAR. DAL Win Pct. 90.7%

vs. NYG

• Scenario: DAL 34-13 NYG. Win Pct. 99.9% --> (next play) TD NYG. DAL 34-20 NYG. DAL Win Pct. 99.8%

Dallas has allowed 109 points. 35 of those points have made close to zero difference in win probability.

First Downs

Game in leverage: Dallas has given up 36 first downs. Blowouts with soft coverage in fourth quarter: Dallas has given up 32 first downs.

DVOA has Dallas as a top 8 defense for a reason. They remove a lot of the noise and Dallas is dominant on offense but this defense is severely underrated.

Spot on this is why our passing yards allowed is so inflated...

 

[J12B]

I wish the defense didn't ever go prevent mode.

If they're playing so well a majority of the game why ease up on the opponents? Maybe under 2 minutes that would be fine, but they've been going prevent much earlier, thankfully because of some big leads but still too early in my opinion.

Unless it's for player safety and to avoid injury.