Galian Beast
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Here is my draft analysis from 2010-2011
I break it down to the following categories
FTS - Full Time Starter (Clear cut starter)
PTS - Part Time Starter (Plays a significant amount of snaps)
R - Roster (Current Roster)
M - Miss (Is not on roster)
I think it's important to look at the last two drafts particularly when it comes to understanding the likelihood for certain players to make an impact or to make the roster.
1st round
Dez Bryant FTS
Tyron Smith FTS
1st round FTS rate = 100%
*I think this is an interesting note, because Claiborne is just as high if not highly projected as both Bryant and Smith. This is quite a boon for us getting the three of them in three straight years. Arguably all top 5-10 talents.
2nd round
Sean Lee FTS
Bruce Carter R
2nd round FTS rate = 50%
2nd round R rate = 100%
*I completely expect Carter to at the very least become a part time starter. It hurts to lose a 2nd round draft pick, but I think looking at Claiborne eases the pain completely. He is completely worth it, especially when you understand the absolute potential difference he gives us. Would you trade a 1st and a 2nd for Revis? Would you trade Sean Lee and Bruce Carter for Revis? I would. And I think highly of both Lee and Carter.
3rd round
DeMarco Murray FTS
3rd round FTS Rate = 100%
*I think this is an interesting note. Only a few really thought Murray would become the starter. Even I ultimately did not consider that. If I recall I expected him to become the 2 behind Felix. I think we shouldn't overlook the potential impact Crawford can have in Rob Ryan's system as a rotational player in key positions. People complained about our pass rush from the defensive line and we got a guy who should be able to help us out there. You combine guys like him, Ratliff, Lissemore, and Hatcher, and assuming healthy seasons, it's pretty good. Hatcher had 6.5 sacks in 13 games. Lissemore had 2 sacks in a third of Ratliff's snaps.
4th round
Akwasi Owusu Ansah M
David Arkin R
*I think we got cute with AOA, we took a risk and it didn't pan out. I think Arkin's contributions are yet to be seen. 4th is fairly high for a guard. I think we have to worry somewhat about him being leap frogged by other players, but let's give him a legitimate shot with Woicik and Callahan.
I see Wibler and Johnson as steadier picks who we think can become role players. Similar to Butler, who was also drafted in the 4th. I think Johnson is going to compete more with Church and McCray. I think he could definitely end up pushing McCray off the roster. If you look at Church, he was an undrafted guy yet he still had nearly 200 snaps last year.
4th round M rating - 50%
4th round R rating - 50%
5th round
Josh Thomas - M
5th round M rating - 100%
*We missed with Josh Thomas. I think a lot of these cornerbacks that we take in the later round, you're really just taking a flier to see how they adapt to the NFL game. It was the same for Mickens, DeAngelo Smith, but at least we "somewhat" hit on Scandrick. I think you absolutely expect 4th and 5th round contribution. I don't think these peoples are give aways.
I think Danny Coale has a real opportunity. He could be our 3rd receiver day one. There are A LOT of what I refer to as X Factor snaps. Basically snaps that go to a player who isn't generally a starter i.e. FB, 2TE, 3WR, 4WR
When you ask who is going to replace Laurent Robinson, it's really going to be Miles Austin and Dez Bryant. Jason Witten had 1074 snaps on offense last year. Dez had 791 and Miles had 572. Laurent Robinson had 599. Those snaps are going to go back to Dez and Miles, and get them back closer to 800-1000 snaps.
But then you have:
Martellus Bennett 428 snaps
Kevin Ogletree 280 snaps
Tony Fiammetta 227 snaps
Jesse Holley 53 snaps
I think obviously Fiammetta snaps will go to Vickers and and quite a few of Bennett's snaps as well (What doesn't go to Phillips), but ultimately a good portion of Bennett's, Robinson's, and Ogletree's snaps can go to someone who emerges as a #3 WR. I think we're going to have a lot of competition there. Radway, Harris, Holmes and now Coale.
6th round
Sam Young - M
Jamar Wall - M
Dwayne Harris - R
*I think the 6th round is getting towards more of a reach. You're taking players that really are role players or project type guys at this point. I think it's a part of the draft we're we've focused on getting depth type players. Which I think is even different from what we do in UDFA, where I think we just get players who had big question marks, and aren't worth the risk of the draft pick.
7th round
Sean Lissemore - PTS
Shaun Chapas - R
Bill Nagy - PTS
*Designated Nagy as a PTS because he played in a starting role but isn't the presumed starter next year. I think we could see a lot from Nagy in terms of strengthening and conditioning, combined again with Callahan's coaching. We liked him enough to start him at guard, which isn't his actual position. I think moving back to center, and having some experience under him will really help him. Nagy took 283 snaps as a rookie center playing guard...
Basically I wouldn't assume everyone will make the roster, but at the same time I wouldn't really write anyone off either. Just because someone doesn't become a 700+ snap guy, doesn't mean they aren't a big part of the team.
In the last 2 years, we have 5 misses, on 14 picks. That is a 35.7% drop rate. I would assume that less than 35% drop from this years list (as the previous year will have a higher drop rate in it's 2nd year than it's first, if that makes sense).
Anyways, my point is, even if you've been really frustrated with this team, it IS a process, and there is A LOT of turnover here.
Conservatively assuming that 3 or 4 of our picks make the team, and 1 undrafted free agent makes the team. That is a total of 4-5 rookies being added to the 53 man roster. Then add Pool, Vickers, Connor, Mac, Livings, Orton, Carr, and assuming I'm not forgetting anyone that is 11-12 new players.
Let's go with 12 since the rookie estimate was low anyways. 12/53... 23% turnover... And given that the only loss we would consider worthwhile is Robinson, that is pretty good improvement.
I break it down to the following categories
FTS - Full Time Starter (Clear cut starter)
PTS - Part Time Starter (Plays a significant amount of snaps)
R - Roster (Current Roster)
M - Miss (Is not on roster)
I think it's important to look at the last two drafts particularly when it comes to understanding the likelihood for certain players to make an impact or to make the roster.
1st round
Dez Bryant FTS
Tyron Smith FTS
1st round FTS rate = 100%
*I think this is an interesting note, because Claiborne is just as high if not highly projected as both Bryant and Smith. This is quite a boon for us getting the three of them in three straight years. Arguably all top 5-10 talents.
2nd round
Sean Lee FTS
Bruce Carter R
2nd round FTS rate = 50%
2nd round R rate = 100%
*I completely expect Carter to at the very least become a part time starter. It hurts to lose a 2nd round draft pick, but I think looking at Claiborne eases the pain completely. He is completely worth it, especially when you understand the absolute potential difference he gives us. Would you trade a 1st and a 2nd for Revis? Would you trade Sean Lee and Bruce Carter for Revis? I would. And I think highly of both Lee and Carter.
3rd round
DeMarco Murray FTS
3rd round FTS Rate = 100%
*I think this is an interesting note. Only a few really thought Murray would become the starter. Even I ultimately did not consider that. If I recall I expected him to become the 2 behind Felix. I think we shouldn't overlook the potential impact Crawford can have in Rob Ryan's system as a rotational player in key positions. People complained about our pass rush from the defensive line and we got a guy who should be able to help us out there. You combine guys like him, Ratliff, Lissemore, and Hatcher, and assuming healthy seasons, it's pretty good. Hatcher had 6.5 sacks in 13 games. Lissemore had 2 sacks in a third of Ratliff's snaps.
4th round
Akwasi Owusu Ansah M
David Arkin R
*I think we got cute with AOA, we took a risk and it didn't pan out. I think Arkin's contributions are yet to be seen. 4th is fairly high for a guard. I think we have to worry somewhat about him being leap frogged by other players, but let's give him a legitimate shot with Woicik and Callahan.
I see Wibler and Johnson as steadier picks who we think can become role players. Similar to Butler, who was also drafted in the 4th. I think Johnson is going to compete more with Church and McCray. I think he could definitely end up pushing McCray off the roster. If you look at Church, he was an undrafted guy yet he still had nearly 200 snaps last year.
4th round M rating - 50%
4th round R rating - 50%
5th round
Josh Thomas - M
5th round M rating - 100%
*We missed with Josh Thomas. I think a lot of these cornerbacks that we take in the later round, you're really just taking a flier to see how they adapt to the NFL game. It was the same for Mickens, DeAngelo Smith, but at least we "somewhat" hit on Scandrick. I think you absolutely expect 4th and 5th round contribution. I don't think these peoples are give aways.
I think Danny Coale has a real opportunity. He could be our 3rd receiver day one. There are A LOT of what I refer to as X Factor snaps. Basically snaps that go to a player who isn't generally a starter i.e. FB, 2TE, 3WR, 4WR
When you ask who is going to replace Laurent Robinson, it's really going to be Miles Austin and Dez Bryant. Jason Witten had 1074 snaps on offense last year. Dez had 791 and Miles had 572. Laurent Robinson had 599. Those snaps are going to go back to Dez and Miles, and get them back closer to 800-1000 snaps.
But then you have:
Martellus Bennett 428 snaps
Kevin Ogletree 280 snaps
Tony Fiammetta 227 snaps
Jesse Holley 53 snaps
I think obviously Fiammetta snaps will go to Vickers and and quite a few of Bennett's snaps as well (What doesn't go to Phillips), but ultimately a good portion of Bennett's, Robinson's, and Ogletree's snaps can go to someone who emerges as a #3 WR. I think we're going to have a lot of competition there. Radway, Harris, Holmes and now Coale.
6th round
Sam Young - M
Jamar Wall - M
Dwayne Harris - R
*I think the 6th round is getting towards more of a reach. You're taking players that really are role players or project type guys at this point. I think it's a part of the draft we're we've focused on getting depth type players. Which I think is even different from what we do in UDFA, where I think we just get players who had big question marks, and aren't worth the risk of the draft pick.
7th round
Sean Lissemore - PTS
Shaun Chapas - R
Bill Nagy - PTS
*Designated Nagy as a PTS because he played in a starting role but isn't the presumed starter next year. I think we could see a lot from Nagy in terms of strengthening and conditioning, combined again with Callahan's coaching. We liked him enough to start him at guard, which isn't his actual position. I think moving back to center, and having some experience under him will really help him. Nagy took 283 snaps as a rookie center playing guard...
Basically I wouldn't assume everyone will make the roster, but at the same time I wouldn't really write anyone off either. Just because someone doesn't become a 700+ snap guy, doesn't mean they aren't a big part of the team.
In the last 2 years, we have 5 misses, on 14 picks. That is a 35.7% drop rate. I would assume that less than 35% drop from this years list (as the previous year will have a higher drop rate in it's 2nd year than it's first, if that makes sense).
Anyways, my point is, even if you've been really frustrated with this team, it IS a process, and there is A LOT of turnover here.
Conservatively assuming that 3 or 4 of our picks make the team, and 1 undrafted free agent makes the team. That is a total of 4-5 rookies being added to the 53 man roster. Then add Pool, Vickers, Connor, Mac, Livings, Orton, Carr, and assuming I'm not forgetting anyone that is 11-12 new players.
Let's go with 12 since the rookie estimate was low anyways. 12/53... 23% turnover... And given that the only loss we would consider worthwhile is Robinson, that is pretty good improvement.
