Good Grief---Draft Order

[SDogo]

I put together draft scenario generator just like the playoff one we have seen here.

Ran 768 different scenarios based on the last 3 weeks. Ran one with win/loss record, one with offensive rankings and one with defensive rankings.

Anyways, in

67% of the scenarios Dallas ended up picking between 15-20
16% of the scenarios Dallas ended up picking between 21-32
11% of the scenarios Dallas ended up picking between 12-14
6% of the scenarios Dallas ended up picking between 8-11

It is hard to believe that a team "fighting" for playoff spot with 3 weeks to go still has a shot at a top 10 pick at the same time.

 

[casmith07]

6% of the scenarios for a top 10 pick? And you're saying there's a "shot."

Reaching big time.

 

[SDogo]

6% of the scenarios for a top 10 pick? And you're saying there's a "shot."

Reaching big time.

There is a shot but it involves Chicago, Buffalo, Carolina and SF winning their last 3 games and some other stuff that we wont get involved in beacuse the first what if will never happen. lol

 

[Asklesko]

Where will we be most likely to pick if Dallas loses out?

 

[casmith07]

There is a shot but it involves Chicago, Buffalo, Carolina and SF winning their last 3 games and some other stuff that we wont get involved in beacuse the first what if will never happen. lol

Chicago winning their last 3 games would mean Cutler would have to throw no picks. It won't happen

 

[Doomsdayblitz]

There is a shot but it involves Chicago, Buffalo, Carolina and SF winning their last 3 games and some other stuff that we wont get involved in beacuse the first what if will never happen. lol

I like the fact that you have us taking at least two OLs, but we have to take them a LOT sooner. I would like to see us trade down with the Bucs, (who have the Bears' second rd. pick, & getting their first round pick for next year. That way, we'd be in the Emmitt, er, I mean Mark Ingram sweepstakes in 2011. With that pick, I see us taking OG Mike Iupati, Idaho, then with the second 2nd rd. pick, taking OT Anthony Davis, Rutgers, if he lasts that long.

We have the oldest O'line in captivity, & Flo needs to go. We should have taken Beatty or Vollmer this year. Now, we are in the desperate mode for O'linemen. In fact, I would love to see us take Thomas Austin, OC/OG, Clemson, in one of the later rounds.

 

[Yeagermeister]

We'll end up drafting the same place we always do somewhere around 18.

 

[big dog cowboy]

16% of the scenarios Dallas ended up picking between 21-32

6% of the scenarios Dallas ended up picking between 8-11

It is hard to believe that a team "fighting" for playoff spot with 3 weeks to go still has a shot at a top 10 pick at the same time.

It is hard to believe that a team "fighting" for playoff spot with 3 weeks to go still has a better shot at the 32nd pick at the same time.

 

[RS12]

Watching the Skins and Eagles play today, 8-8 looks like a strong possibility. Joe Haden please.

 

[AdamJT13]

I put together draft scenario generator just like the playoff one we have seen here.

Ran 768 different scenarios based on the last 3 weeks. Ran one with win/loss record, one with offensive rankings and one with defensive rankings.

Anyways, in

67% of the scenarios Dallas ended up picking between 15-20
16% of the scenarios Dallas ended up picking between 21-32
11% of the scenarios Dallas ended up picking between 12-14
6% of the scenarios Dallas ended up picking between 8-11

It is hard to believe that a team "fighting" for playoff spot with 3 weeks to go still has a shot at a top 10 pick at the same time.

The percentage of scenarios isn't the same as the chances of something happening. The playoff generators use percentages based on the odds of teams winning. Your system considers every game a 50-50 chance of winning for each team, which obviously isn't the case.


Here's a draft generator that uses actual odds --

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfldraftorder.html


Our chances of getting picks Nos. 8-13 are all less than 1 percent. The rest of the picks (before adjustments for playoff advancement), and our odds for getting them --

14 = 1
15 = 2
16 = 4
17 = 6
18 = 9
19 = 12
20 = 10
21 = 12
22 = 10
23 = 7
24 = 3
25 = 9
26 = 7
27 = 3
28 = 1
29 = 3
30 = < 1
31 = 0
32 = 0

 

[SDogo]

The percentage of scenarios isn't the same as the chances of something happening. The playoff generators use percentages based on the odds of teams winning. Your system considers every game a 50-50 chance of winning for each team, which obviously isn't the case.


Here's a draft generator that uses actual odds --

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfldraftorder.html


Our chances of getting picks Nos. 8-13 are all less than 1 percent. The rest of the picks (before adjustments for playoff advancement), and our odds for getting them --

14 = 1
15 = 2
16 = 4
17 = 6
18 = 9
19 = 12
20 = 10
21 = 12
22 = 10
23 = 7
24 = 3
25 = 9
26 = 7
27 = 3
28 = 1
29 = 3
30 = < 1
31 = 0
32 = 0

appreciate it Adam

I just started fooling around with it and this gives me something else to consider.

 

[dmq]

100% chance Jerry tries to look smart and botches the pick.

 

[Q_the_man]

The percentage of scenarios isn't the same as the chances of something happening. The playoff generators use percentages based on the odds of teams winning. Your system considers every game a 50-50 chance of winning for each team, which obviously isn't the case.


Here's a draft generator that uses actual odds --

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfldraftorder.html


Our chances of getting picks Nos. 8-13 are all less than 1 percent. The rest of the picks (before adjustments for playoff advancement), and our odds for getting them --

14 = 1
15 = 2
16 = 4
17 = 6
18 = 9
19 = 12
20 = 10
21 = 12
22 = 10
23 = 7
24 = 3
25 = 9
26 = 7
27 = 3
28 = 1
29 = 3
30 = < 1
31 = 0
32 = 0

Actually that system looks wrong, we have a better shot at getting picks 31 or 32 then 29 and 30, if the Colts and the Saints don't make the SB they get those 2 slots....Actually their is no way in the world that we can get the 29th or 30th pick unless we trade for it....