Help a newbie out... Complicated questions (Salary Cap, Draft, etc.)

[tskyler]

I am trying to learn the ins and outs of the NFL rules. First some history, I grew up in Texas and as a kid was a Cowboy fan. I began to watch religeously when I was in college the year they drafted Aikman and Landry was fired. (bad or good year to start depending on perspective) I watched throughout the early 90's Superbowl runs. Then I graduated and got busy with work and couldn't make the time to watch and be disappointed. I got interested in the game again last year right after the draft. Watched all the Parcells press conferences, listened to Talkin Cowboys. Read a little on ESPN, etc. This year I have been obsessed. reading the Zone, the blogs religeously (I am amazed at how differently I am watching the games armed with more knowledge than who the QB, RB, and Receivers are) I have not been posting because I didn't want to sound like an idiot. (now I am about too)

This is all a long way of saying, I missed most of the painful rebuilding years, it seems like from googling old stuff that it took forever. So my questions are these. Jerry keeps saying things look really good and we have all the right parts to do well. I don't know that I disagree (I'm almost as optimistic a Jerry) but let's say things turn out poorly for the next couple of seasons.
1. How do you blow up a team like this? Do you have to do it piecemeal. Are we in for another 7-10 years before things are in place again? How long did it take to go from 4-3 to 3-4?
2. How did Jerry do it last time? Seems like they just kept trying to patch this and that, thinking one more pick or free agent here or there would fix things.
3. Has any team just said "ok, we aren't gonna do well for a while. Let's forget win now. Lets get ready for three or four years from now. Lets fire or trade all our stars and sign every player for league minimums." (I do realize that you take a hit from cutting someone with a signing bonus. And the cuts wouldn't help and might hurt fiscally the first year)
4. I read somewhere on the board that you can carry over Salary Cap Money if you give someone an escalator that they can't earn at the end of the year. Any restrictions on this? Why doesn't any team have like $200 million bonuses rolling forward. (i.e. instead of rollover minutes, rollover salary) Would seem like you could use this to grab a load of high priced free agents when you are finally ready to make your run.
5. Why don't you see anyone trading a ton of this years draft picks for next years? (i.e. I'll give you this years first, for next years first and second) Any reason not to do this if you are rebuilding. Seems like better value if its a long process.
6. Seems like coaches are always afraid of playing rookies, etc. If you know you are going to suck for a couple of years. Why not sign a bunch of desperate castoff league minimum free agents to long term non-guaranteed deals and evaluate them in real games, rotating a new crop in for each regular season game? With some major exceptions, it seems like a lot of players are pretty close to each other with the exception of gametime experience.

I realize that this would piss the hell out of season ticket holders, would upset an owners ego and would be very radical in a pretty conservative business. Don't think this would likely happen. Certainly, not all things together. Just wondering what options a team has in the salary cap era to build a true dynasty if they think long term and accept major pain in the short-medium term.

Skyler

 

[Baileyneverfailey]

1. You definitely wouldn't blow up this roster, as it is top to bottom one of the 5 or 6 most talented rosters in the league in the opinion of most objective observers I think.

2. The rebuilding really began in 2003 when Parcells took over. He started churning the bottom of the roster, drafting well, and signing some good value free agents. He also signed a ton of his old retreads, but a few of them have been lovely, like Terry Glenn and Aaron Glenn to an extent.

3. No team has ever openly admitted they're not going to win and they're throwing in the towel. Competitors just can't and won't do it.

4. Adamjt13 would have to be the guy to answer this with expert knowledge, but from what I understand, you can get a bonus to the next year's salary cap if a guy doesn't earn a LTBE(Likely to be earned) incentive. I would assume the reason teams don't abuse this more, is because most guys wouldn't sign a contract with a bunch of incentives that are marked as LTBE but are clearly not something they have a shot at getting. After all, players and agents are trying to get paid.

5. You see a lot of this if you look closely enough really. Back in 2004, we traded out of the first round to get Buffalo's 2005 first rounder, and an extra 2004 2nd and 5th rounder. We ended up with Julius Jones, Marcus Spears, and a tight end named Sean Ryan who didn't stick with us. The Bills wanted JP Losman and the rest is history. We did the same thing this past year, trading down to get Cleveland's first pick next year, but then we traded back up into the first to get Anthony Spencer.

The Patriots have been trading first rounders and players to get extra first rounders and extra picks in future years almost every year for the past few. It's usually a smart play, but you run the risk of passing on a player like Steven Jackson, which we did.

6. This goes back to how competitors won't just lay down and lose on purpose. Any owner who openly admits he's not trying to win is not going to keep any fans, that is certain. I don't think most coaches are afraid of playing rookies really, but they're usually just not ready to play. Their bodies aren't in the shape they need to be in, and the schemes are much more complex than most are used to.

If a team wants to build a dynasty, or even just a good team that can compete year in and year out, you just have to look at teams like the Patriots and Eagles(ugh it hurts me to say that). The major factors are good drafting and cutting guys loose when you can replace them with a cheaper player.

The Pats don't show loyalty to guys like Ty Law or Lawyer Milloy when they want money and they're getting to age 30 and such. Rather, they start the young guys who cost less. Every year they draft more good players who are ready to rip the starting job of a guy who isn't as effective any longer.

I think we are building in that direction. If you look at our team at some positions, especially linebacker, we have young guys who are 1st and 2nd rounders who are backups. This is not a bad problem to have, it just means we have an entire talented stable of linebackers, and it's not like they're getting paid a ton of money.

That is how you know you're working up a team that can win long term in my opinion, when you start drafting 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounders and there isn't anywhere on your team for them to start. Then you know your team is talented.

 

[tskyler]

Thanks for the incredibly good answers. Very helpful!

"You definitely wouldn't blow up this roster, as it is top to bottom one of the 5 or 6 most talented rosters in the league in the opinion of most objective observers I think."

I definitely wouldnt even consider it today. I like this team. However, I guess my feeling last year was that the team just didn't have the same sort of killer instinct that you see in a championship team. They showed sparks of brilliance and then when things counted always gave things away. They showed the spark in Denver. Then the first 2 1/2 quarters of the Houston game looked like deja vu all ove again I know its the preseason but it smelled like last year. It might have been bad luck, coaching, etc. for one year. They may be hobbled by injuries this year. (I still don't think that is likely) My comments were really assuming a continuation 1 or two more years down the road. If a team has this much talent and continues to slide for 3 or four years. I think you have to assume there is some chemistry issue that is deep and needs radical surgery. So I'm only in hypothetical mode but Im wondering about options.

"The rebuilding really began in 2003 when Parcells took over."
Wow I didnt realize they were asleep at the wheel for so long.

Don't know that I completely agree with, "No team has ever openly admitted they're not going to win and they're throwing in the towel. Competitors just can't and won't do it."

It happens in Baseball and Basketball all the time. (See Florida Marlins after World Series Win, Rangers every other season, too many to count in NBA...) Not really saying they openly admit it but its pretty obvious when they blow everything up and contract payroll. I think the NFL collective barganing agreement prevents major salary contraction, so some of the incentive disappears I think.

"Adamjt13 would have to be the guy to answer this with expert knowledge, but from what I understand, you can get a bonus to the next year's salary cap if a guy doesn't earn a LTBE(Likely to be earned) incentive. I would assume the reason teams don't abuse this more, is because most guys wouldn't sign a contract with a bunch of incentives that are marked as LTBE but are clearly not something they have a shot at getting. After all, players and agents are trying to get paid."

Hope Adamjt13 responds to this thread.

Assuming there is no rule against it, it would seem like it should be possible if only that if you are signing a castoff why would they complain about the LTBE's in the contract. The agent should legally be bound to do whats best for the player not his other clients. (i.e. getting whatever the minimum value would be for his skills, rather than the overall shrinking salary pool) Heck you could kick in an extra 100k for the paperwork expenses. But there has to be some rule here or I think someone would be abusing this.

Thanks again.

Skyler

 

[Baileyneverfailey]

Yeah, no problem. I guess I wasn't thinking about those other teams in different sports when I said I didn't see teams openly admitting they weren't going to win. With the Marlins, I think it's more of an issue that they don't make enough money to pay anybody, so every time they get good enough to win a series, they have to let everybody go because they can't afford to pay any of them.

I don't see any way they could pay Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, or any of those guys down the road when it's time to re-up.

 

[zrinkill]

I am trying to learn the ins and outs of the NFL rules.

Pay special attention to any of AdamJT13 ..... he is the resident cap expert and anything he says is money.

Look up some of the threads he has started ...... you will learn alot

 

[Hostile]

Great thread. Good, honest questions and very good, thoughtful answers.

 

[firehawk350]

As a skins fan, I would naturally have a more negative view so with that in mind, here's my thoughts on your questions.

I am trying to learn the ins and outs of the NFL rules. First some history, I grew up in Texas and as a kid was a Cowboy fan. I began to watch religeously when I was in college the year they drafted Aikman and Landry was fired. (bad or good year to start depending on perspective) I watched throughout the early 90's Superbowl runs. Then I graduated and got busy with work and couldn't make the time to watch and be disappointed. I got interested in the game again last year right after the draft. Watched all the Parcells press conferences, listened to Talkin Cowboys. Read a little on ESPN, etc. This year I have been obsessed. reading the Zone, the blogs religeously (I am amazed at how differently I am watching the games armed with more knowledge than who the QB, RB, and Receivers are) I have not been posting because I didn't want to sound like an idiot. (now I am about too)

Yeah, definitely helps when you know more about the game. I'm kinda in that phase too, I started really following football back in 04 when I followed the game as more of a pastime then a passion. My appreciation has grown along with my knowledge. Forums have been the biggest contributor in this, and I usually visit multiple (as in different teams) forums to get the positive view, the negative view and the indifferent one (the truth lies somewhere between). I suggest doing the same if you really want to know more about the Boys. Word of warning though, be careful on rival boards as things can get, heated...

This is all a long way of saying, I missed most of the painful rebuilding years, it seems like from googling old stuff that it took forever. So my questions are these. Jerry keeps saying things look really good and we have all the right parts to do well. I don't know that I disagree (I'm almost as optimistic a Jerry) but let's say things turn out poorly for the next couple of seasons.
1. How do you blow up a team like this? Do you have to do it piecemeal. Are we in for another 7-10 years before things are in place again? How long did it take to go from 4-3 to 3-4?

Well you never want to completely blow up the roster. The signing bonuses get accelerated and you end up with like $50M in dead cap and nobody on your roster. What you would want to do is identify young core players you want to build around and then cut the older players and less-talented players (or ones with losing attitudes).

As far as turnaround time, it depends on the franchise and the ability to evaluate talent. Bad talent evaluators and you will never rebuild. Good talent evaluators and then you get a turnaround season like New Orleans. Most of the time, you are looking at a couple of years (San Fran has gotten consistently better since 04 for example and now people are talking about playoffs). Parcells switched to the 3-4 in 05 if my memory serves me correctly.

2. How did Jerry do it last time? Seems like they just kept trying to patch this and that, thinking one more pick or free agent here or there would fix things.

Well it really depends a lot on what the management thinks of the roster as it is. This goes back to talent evaluation. Jerry thought Quincy Carter was the future. Jerry thought wrong.

Jerry now thinks that Romo is the future, so here it comes around again, if he's right then he just needed to add a couple of components to make a good push for the next couple of years. If he's wrong, then the team will lose a lot of talent in the next couple of years that it's going to take to figure out that Romo isn't the guy. Your going to lose TO, Terry Glenn, Anthony Henry, Fergy, Akin and some other guys will start looking at the downsides of their careers. So again, it depends on if the right guys are mostly in place now that determines if you are just a piece or two away or if you just are going to need to blow up the roster all over again.

3. Has any team just said "ok, we aren't gonna do well for a while. Let's forget win now. Lets get ready for three or four years from now. Lets fire or trade all our stars and sign every player for league minimums." (I do realize that you take a hit from cutting someone with a signing bonus. And the cuts wouldn't help and might hurt fiscally the first year)

I know when the 49ers hired Nolan, they trusted him to start over and took the hits for a couple of seasons. Now, they are starting to see the benefits. No team is going to admit that they are just giving up and nobody is going to cut everyone on the roster. That's not the way to rebuild. You need to keep the young talent that is already on the roster.

Also, you want some trusted vets to help your young guys grow. For example, let's say that team X ends up falling on their faces and at the end of the season, the higher-ups decide, you know, it's time to rebuild. So they go QB for the first pick. Do you really want a brand new QB throwing to receivers that are just learning too, behind a line that doesn't have any understanding of NFL blitz schemes? Your liable to get him killed and stunt his growth. You want a mix of trusted players that won't get your QB killed and young guys he can develop chemistry wihth.

4. I read somewhere on the board that you can carry over Salary Cap Money if you give someone an escalator that they can't earn at the end of the year. Any restrictions on this? Why doesn't any team have like $200 million bonuses rolling forward. (i.e. instead of rollover minutes, rollover salary) Would seem like you could use this to grab a load of high priced free agents when you are finally ready to make your run.

Well there are some teams that do that, and there are a number of tricks to use. But then again, you gotta remember that if your wrong and the player ends up sucking the next year, your strapped with a huge amount of bonuses and not enough cap space to sign the next batch of draftees/free agents. It's a balancing act.

5. Why don't you see anyone trading a ton of this years draft picks for next years? (i.e. I'll give you this years first, for next years first and second) Any reason not to do this if you are rebuilding. Seems like better value if its a long process.

You gotta remember it takes two to trade. A team has to see somebody they really want to give up the picks. It's like selling your car for over the blue book value. If somebody absolutely has to have it, they pay. But mostly likely, your going to have to drive what you have. On top of that, your passing up on a player that could be great on the assumption that the talent you have to pick from is equally as good.

6. Seems like coaches are always afraid of playing rookies, etc. If you know you are going to suck for a couple of years. Why not sign a bunch of desperate castoff league minimum free agents to long term non-guaranteed deals and evaluate them in real games, rotating a new crop in for each regular season game? With some major exceptions, it seems like a lot of players are pretty close to each other with the exception of gametime experience.

Those desperate free agents got kicked off the other teams' roster for a reason most of the time. You dig through the trash, your mostly likely going to end up with a lot of trash. On top of that, nobody is going to have a great showing without developing chemistry with each other and truly understanding the scheme that usually takes a couple of weeks to a whole year. So, in your scenario, you've got a bunch of fringe players with a minimal understanding of what you want to do and your still at block one because you don't have anybody to start rebuilding around.

I realize that this would piss the hell out of season ticket holders, would upset an owners ego and would be very radical in a pretty conservative business. Don't think this would likely happen. Certainly, not all things together. Just wondering what options a team has in the salary cap era to build a true dynasty if they think long term and accept major pain in the short-medium term.

Skyler

It's almost impossible to build a true dynasty in this day and age. Your truly talented players are going to want huge paydays eventually and you either run the risk of downgrading the talent around them to keep them (and then they'll be less successful because even a superstar needs adequate talent around them to create a winning franchise), or assuming your going to find a replacement as good as them in the draft. It would work if you never strike out in the draft/free agency, but I've yet to met the GM that hasn't made a mistake.

 

[AdamJT13]

4. I read somewhere on the board that you can carry over Salary Cap Money if you give someone an escalator that they can't earn at the end of the year. Any restrictions on this? Why doesn't any team have like $200 million bonuses rolling forward. (i.e. instead of rollover minutes, rollover salary) Would seem like you could use this to grab a load of high priced free agents when you are finally ready to make your run.

LTBE bonuses count against the salary cap, so you can only "roll forward" whatever amount you didn't already spend.

 

[tskyler]

"LTBE bonuses count against the salary cap, so you can only "roll forward" whatever amount you didn't already spend."

I understand. I guess what I'm asking is... I think you have the cowboys under salary cap by 13 million or so. Could I write a contract with Stanback or someone that says you get 10 million if you make 50 touchdown catches. (Or some other unattainable stat) Next year with releases and increased revenue we are under cap by 50 million. We add the 10 million from Stanback's unearned LTBE for a total of 60 million. We take this and give it to Alan Ball in an LTBE for 60 million for 500 interceptions. Is there anything besides the amount of money I need to spend under the cap to keep me from continuing to do this and then blowing it all in one year on free agents when I feel like I have all of my draft picks and second teamers in place?

Skyler

 

[AdamJT13]

"LTBE bonuses count against the salary cap, so you can only "roll forward" whatever amount you didn't already spend."

I understand. I guess what I'm asking is... I think you have the cowboys under salary cap by 13 million or so. Could I write a contract with Stanback or someone that says you get 10 million if you make 50 touchdown catches. (Or some other unattainable stat) Next year with releases and increased revenue we are under cap by 50 million. We add the 10 million from Stanback's unearned LTBE for a total of 60 million. We take this and give it to Alan Ball in an LTBE for 60 million for 500 interceptions. Is there anything besides the amount of money I need to spend under the cap to keep me from continuing to do this and then blowing it all in one year on free agents when I feel like I have all of my draft picks and second teamers in place?

Skyler

You could do that (as long as you get around the minimum team salary rule), but that $60 million LTBE you gave to Ball counts against your cap that season -- which means you can't spend it on actual players. You'd be spending $50 million when everyone else is spending $110 million, for example. If you want to have an absolute garbage team for a year or two, then yes, it is possible to be able to spend $200 million in one season -- but you'd have to be sure there are free agents worth spending it on (and sure that they'd sign with you instead of a good team).

 

[tskyler]

Thanks!

What is the minimum team salary rule? (i.e. How much do I have to spend? and does an unreachable LTBE count against that minimum?)