Here are the trading down scenarios

whcarm

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Based on a NFL pick value chart. Here is what we would likely get in return for trading down with the teams behind us in the draft and why they might be looking to trade up.

Our 18th pick is worth 900 points

Chiefs:
Looking for a CB, WR, or LB ahead of SD
20th - 1st round = 850
154th - 5th round = 31.2
186th - 6th round = 18
900 v. 899.2

Patriots:
LB, RB, CB
21st - 1st round = 800
118th - 4th round = 58
136th - 5th round = 37
900 v. 895
OR
21st - 1st round = 800
106th - 4th round = 86
191st - sixth round = 15
900 v. 901

49ers:
DT, LB, WR
22nd - 1st round = 780
100th - 4th round = 100
175 - 6th round = 22.4
900 v. 902.4

Bucs:
OT, CB, LB, WR
23rd - 1st round = 760
90th - 3rd round = 140
900 v. 900

Bengals:
DT, S, CB
Because of the pics they have and don't have, it would be very difficult to match up the points with them. So they are a doubtful trading partner.

Giants:
OLB, DT, CB
25th - 1st round = 720
87th - 3rd round = 155
158 - 5th round = 29.2
900 v. 904.2
Another doubtful trading partner unless there is someone they really want. They don't have many picks in this draft.

Bears:
CB, TE
Because they have very few picks in this draft it would be very hard to match up the values and it is doubtful they would be willing to move up and give up more picks.

Panthers:
CB, RB, OLB
27th - 1st round = 680
89th - 3rd round = 145
121st - 4th round = 52
155th - 5th round = 30.8
900 v. 907.8

Jaguars:
CB, OT, LB
28th - 1st round = 660
60th - 2nd round = 300
92nd - 3rd round = 132
Dallas gives:
80th - 3rd round = 190
1090 v. 1092

Jets:
OT, RB, DE
29th - 1st round = 640
71st - 3rd round = 235
138th - 5th round = 37
900 v. 912
So switches in the sixth and/or seventh round might be needed to balance the value.

Colts:
RB, OLB, S, CB
30th - 1st round = 620
62nd - 2nd round = 284
900 v. 904

Seahawks:
S, CB, DE
31st - 1st round = 600
63rd - 2nd round = 276
163rd - 5th round = 27.2
900 v. 903.2

Steelers:
WR, S
32nd - 1st round = 590
64th - 2nd round = 270
129th - 4th round = 43
900 v. 903

Possible trading partners if we trade out of the first round all together:

Packers:
36th - 2nd round = 540
10th - 4th round: 86
2007 1st round = 300
Dallas gives:
150th - 5th round = 31.4
931.4 v. 926
May need some late round switches to equalize value. GB needs lots of help and I'd doubt they would be willing to do this, but if there is someone there at 18 that they really think would help them win this year then they might do it to help convince Farve to stay another year.


Broncons:
TE, WR, RB
37th - 2nd round: 530
119th - 4th round: 56
198th - 6th round: 13.2
2007 1st round = 300
900 v. 899.2
If Broncos think there is someone there at 18 that can help them get to the Super Bowl this year then they might do it. Probably the most likely trading partner if we trade out of the first round. Plus, they won't think their 2007 first round pick will be all that high.
 

whcarm

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By the way, I estimated the 2007 first round picks at 300 points because that was the value that we placed the Bills first round pick for the next year at when we made the trade a few years ago to drop out of the first round.
 

Rack

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Excellent work, Whcarm. Quality post as usual.
 

StanleySpadowski

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Nice work but don't forget that the team pushing the trade often pays a premium. It's usually the team trading up but occasionally a team wants down badly enough to pay up.
 

whcarm

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Based on my analysis, guessing which prospects the teams might be going after, and looking at the picks the various teams have, I would say that the 49ers, Bucs, Colts, Steelers, or Broncos are our most likely trading partners, if we trade down.
 

AdamJT13

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It should be noted that when trades happen, teams rarely quibble over points (they likely have different charts, anyway), especially when they're getting into the position where they want to be. Of the past 237 draft trades, 131 of them (55.3 percent) were simple two-for-one trades, and only 26 of them involved more than one pick going each way (ie., 211 out of 237 were one-for-one, two-for-one, three-for-one, four-for-one, etc.). They don't keep adding late picks on each side until everything balances out just right.
 

Cbz40

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whcarm said:
Based on a NFL pick value chart. Here is what we would likely get in return for trading down with the teams behind us in the draft and why they might be looking to trade up.

Our 18th pick is worth 900 points

Chiefs:
Looking for a CB, WR, or LB ahead of SD
20th - 1st round = 850
154th - 5th round = 31.2
186th - 6th round = 18
900 v. 899.2

Patriots:
LB, RB, CB
21st - 1st round = 800
118th - 4th round = 58
136th - 5th round = 37
900 v. 895
OR
21st - 1st round = 800
106th - 4th round = 86
191st - sixth round = 15
900 v. 901

49ers:
DT, LB, WR
22nd - 1st round = 780
100th - 4th round = 100
175 - 6th round = 22.4
900 v. 902.4

Bucs:
OT, CB, LB, WR
23rd - 1st round = 760
90th - 3rd round = 140
900 v. 900

Bengals:
DT, S, CB
Because of the pics they have and don't have, it would be very difficult to match up the points with them. So they are a doubtful trading partner.

Giants:
OLB, DT, CB
25th - 1st round = 720
87th - 3rd round = 155
158 - 5th round = 29.2
900 v. 904.2
Another doubtful trading partner unless there is someone they really want. They don't have many picks in this draft.

Bears:
CB, TE
Because they have very few picks in this draft it would be very hard to match up the values and it is doubtful they would be willing to move up and give up more picks.

Panthers:
CB, RB, OLB
27th - 1st round = 680
89th - 3rd round = 145
121st - 4th round = 52
155th - 5th round = 30.8
900 v. 907.8

Jaguars:
CB, OT, LB
28th - 1st round = 660
60th - 2nd round = 300
92nd - 3rd round = 132
Dallas gives:
80th - 3rd round = 190
1090 v. 1092

Jets:
OT, RB, DE
29th - 1st round = 640
71st - 3rd round = 235
138th - 5th round = 37
900 v. 912
So switches in the sixth and/or seventh round might be needed to balance the value.

Colts:
RB, OLB, S, CB
30th - 1st round = 620
62nd - 2nd round = 284
900 v. 904

Seahawks:
S, CB, DE
31st - 1st round = 600
63rd - 2nd round = 276
163rd - 5th round = 27.2
900 v. 903.2

Steelers:
WR, S
32nd - 1st round = 590
64th - 2nd round = 270
129th - 4th round = 43
900 v. 903

Possible trading partners if we trade out of the first round all together:

Packers:
36th - 2nd round = 540
10th - 4th round: 86
2007 1st round = 300
Dallas gives:
150th - 5th round = 31.4
931.4 v. 926
May need some late round switches to equalize value. GB needs lots of help and I'd doubt they would be willing to do this, but if there is someone there at 18 that they really think would help them win this year then they might do it to help convince Farve to stay another year.


Broncons:
TE, WR, RB
37th - 2nd round: 530
119th - 4th round: 56
198th - 6th round: 13.2
2007 1st round = 300
900 v. 899.2
If Broncos think there is someone there at 18 that can help them get to the Super Bowl this year then they might do it. Probably the most likely trading partner if we trade out of the first round. Plus, they won't think their 2007 first round pick will be all that high.

What a great post...Thanks for the time and effort.
 

Crown Royal

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Anybody have the point conversion for our trade with Buffalo 2 years ago? It seems like we made out on the better end, but I'd like to see what the numbers say.
 

whcarm

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Dallas & Buffalo trade 2004:

Dallas got:
43rd pick = 470
144th pick = 34
Next year's first round pick = 275 (basing that on the difference in points)

Buffalo got:
22nd pick = 780

Dallas & New Orleans trade 2004

Dallas got:
182nd pick = 19.6
206th pick = 10

NO got:
156th pick = 30

29.6 v 30

Dallas & Oakland trade 2004

Dallas got:
205th pick = 10.4
223rd pick = 3.3

Oakland got:
182nd pick = 19.6

13.7 v. 19.6

In last years draft Dallas made one of those trades that Adam was saying was rare. Dallas gave the Eagles the 148th pick last year and a 4th round pick this year for the Eagles 132nd pick last year and their 6th round pick this year.
 

Crown Royal

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whcarm said:
Dallas & Buffalo trade 2004:

Dallas got:
43rd pick = 470
144th pick = 34
Next year's first round pick = 275 (basing that on the difference in points)

Buffalo got:
22nd pick = 780

Buffalo got:

JP Losman















- 11y billion points.
 

Longboysfan

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whcarm said:
Bucs:
OT, CB, LB, WR
23rd - 1st round = 760
90th - 3rd round = 140
900 v. 900


Colts:
RB, OLB, S, CB
30th - 1st round = 620
62nd - 2nd round = 284
900 v. 904

I could live with either of these two trades.
The first gives us an extra 3rd in a good spot. We could catch a dropping player or group of players by position.
Say RB became real hot where some teams traded up to get one.
And say OL was not so hot and the players were dropping as a group.

The second we would make if they thought the group of players as a whole from 15 to 30 were of all the same relative value.
And
They thought that any player taken would start anyway.
Plus the extra second round pick.
 
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