Homefield Advantage

[CouchCoach]

In the playoffs, the home team has a 68% chance winning vs 57% in the regular season.

One thing I used to do was track this during the playoffs when I was in a Pick'Em league and the one thing that stood out was to be aware of home wins early on because those road wins are coming.

So, applying that scientific approach and utilizing a Ouija board, Tarot cards and a Monkey's Paw, we need at least one of the visiting teams to win in one of the three games ahead of ours. Preferably two.

So, we have six games and LV visits CIN, NE visits BUF and PHL visits TB before DAL hosts SF, followed by PIT at KC and AZ at LAR.

The numbers say there will be two home teams lose because 4 of 6 is 67%, close enough to that 68% mark, and I do not see KC or TB losing, so that leaves CIN, BUF, DAL and LAR. Two of these teams are going to lose.

I do think there is a good chance AZ beats LAR so that could be one but I believe we Cowboys fans should be Raiders or Patriots fans Saturday, probably both.

I know, I know, some will scoff at the numbers but as accountants have impressed on me my whole life, the numbers do not lie. And the numbers say the DAL-SF game has the lowest spread, only 3 for the home team.

If CIN and BUF both win, we better become Eagles fans overnight.

 

[Diehardblues]

The Cowboys are least favorite to win with only 3 point line which is smallest of all of the WC games which would make it the most likely for home field to lose.

After that Buffalo and LA have moved down to only 4 point favorites . Which means early money has been on Patriots and Cards which are probably next most likely potential upsets .

Early money has also moved most dramatically as Bengals opened at 6 1/2 and has dropped to only 5.

Those are the 4 most likely upsets . But covering points isn’t the same as winning. I think Bills and Bengals both win but might not cover.

And the way the Cards finished season have to like Rams . I really believe the Cowboys are in the most vulnerable position. I could see us losing more than any other home team this round.

One reason home field in playoffs has proved to be so much more dominant is the elements in January. And playing at home inside there is none.

 

[foofighters]

The Cowboys are least favorite to win with only 3 point line which is smallest of all of the WC games which would make it the most likely for home field to lose.

After that Buffalo and LA have moved down to only 4 point favorites . Which means early money has been on Patriots and Cards which are probably next most likely potential upsets .

Early money has also moved most dramatically as Bengals opened at 6 1/2 and has dropped to only 5.

Those are the 4 most likely upsets . But covering points isn’t the same as winning. I think Bills and Bengals both win but might not cover.

And the way the Cards finished season have to like Rams . I really believe the Cowboys are in the most vulnerable position. I could see us losing more than any other home team this round.

One reason home field in playoffs has proved to be so much more dominant is the elements in January. And playing at home inside there is none.

Responding to your last sentence, I sure hope the stadium is filled with more Cowboys fans than it usually has.

 

[MoistMayonnaise]

Meh, we don't really have a home field advantage anyway. Tampa won four road games last year on the way to a SB. We're just gonna have to ride it out.

 

[Dallasfann]

I'll go the other way. We are the only home team to cover the spread. Yall gotta get off the ledge. Breathe. Everything is gonna be okay.

 

[JohnsKey19]

Hopefully Dallas comes out fast. They've shown they can scratch and claw their way back after a slow start. But this game could really go in their favor if they can get out to an early lead and put some pressure on the SF offense.

 

[Jake]

In the playoffs, the home team has a 68% chance winning vs 57% in the regular season.

That's because there are bad teams losing home games during the season. Those teams don't make the playoffs.

Road playoff games were different last season since no one was playing in front of a full capacity crowd. The atmosphere should be more normal this time around. But as for 68% meaning two teams will lose this weekend, remember that's 68% over the entire playoffs - not necessarily each weekend.

It's hard for me to see TB and KC losing this weekend, although anything is possible. Tomorrow could be the day. Cincinnati has no playoff experience and the Raiders have been playing with house money since Gruden got fired. The home team will be under more pressure. Weather in Buffalo could play into the Patriots' hands, as it did earlier this season. Plus there's a lot of playoff experience on New England's sideline.

SF/DAL and AZ/LAR are essentially toss ups, and the betting lines reflect it. Home field is usually worth 3 points. Dallas is favored by 3 and the Rams by 4.

 

[Reid1boys]

I would love to see a home team win % in the 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, 00s, 10s,

My guess is that win % is dropping fairly consistently to more closely resemble the regular season.

When I was a kid, number 1 always won and normally 1 or 2 was in the SB. Now... seems like a WC teams gets in every 2-3 years, or at least wins against a 1-2 seed every two to three years.

 

[JD_KaPow]

In the playoffs, the home team has a 68% chance winning vs 57% in the regular season.

One thing I used to do was track this during the playoffs when I was in a Pick'Em league and the one thing that stood out was to be aware of home wins early on because those road wins are coming.

So, applying that scientific approach and utilizing a Ouija board, Tarot cards and a Monkey's Paw, we need at least one of the visiting teams to win in one of the three games ahead of ours. Preferably two.

So, we have six games and LV visits CIN, NE visits BUF and PHL visits TB before DAL hosts SF, followed by PIT at KC and AZ at LAR.

The numbers say there will be two home teams lose because 4 of 6 is 67%, close enough to that 68% mark, and I do not see KC or TB losing, so that leaves CIN, BUF, DAL and LAR. Two of these teams are going to lose.

I do think there is a good chance AZ beats LAR so that could be one but I believe we Cowboys fans should be Raiders or Patriots fans Saturday, probably both.

I know, I know, some will scoff at the numbers but as accountants have impressed on me my whole life, the numbers do not lie. And the numbers say the DAL-SF game has the lowest spread, only 3 for the home team.

If CIN and BUF both win, we better become Eagles fans overnight.

Home field advantage is disappearing. The last two years, the home team hasn’t won more than half the time.
The playoff HFA differential is driven by the fact that the better teams are given home games. Not always true, of course—some WCs are better then division champs and some teams get better later in the season while others fade—but certainly true overall.

So yeah, Dallas probably has to knock off at least one team that’s better than they are, but an inherent HFA isn’t the primary factor.

 

[Reid1boys]

That's because there are bad teams losing home games during the season. Those teams don't make the playoffs.

Road playoff games were different last season since no one was playing in front of a full capacity crowd. The atmosphere should be more normal this time around. But as for 68% meaning two teams will lose this weekend, remember that's 68% over the entire playoffs - not necessarily each weekend.

It's hard for me to see TB and KC losing this weekend, although anything is possible. Tomorrow could be the day. Cincinnati has no playoff experience and the Raiders have been playing with house money since Gruden got fired. The home team will be under more pressure. Weather in Buffalo could play into the Patriots' hands, as it did earlier this season. Plus there's a lot of playoff experience on New England's sideline.

SF/DAL and AZ/LAR are essentially toss ups, and the betting lines reflect it. Home field is usually worth 3 points. Dallas is favored by 3 and the Rams by 4.

I agree with you about Tampa and KC losing at home. But then again, I would have bet my house that the Colts were gonna beat the Jags last weekend also.
Thus the reason I dont bet on NFL games...lol

 

[Reid1boys]

Responding to your last sentence, I sure hope the stadium is filled with more Cowboys fans than it usually has.

than it usually has? lol. I went to the Raiders, Giants and Eagles games at AT&T. at least 90% were Cowboys fans against the Iggles and Giants.
Raiders had 15 %. Raiders game was on Thanksgiving.

 

[Rack]

The numbers DO lie. They were taken over a long period of time and they are not consistent. All away teams might win this weekend and then all home team win the rest of the way etc...

You like an addict in detox shaking and convulsing while anticipating the game.

Chill out. Either the cowboys win or they lose, it has no effect on the universe or even your life unless you let it.

I hope they win but I'm not gonna let a child's game played by a bunch of overpaid adults dictate my mood (any more).

Plus I'm tired of replacing broken remotes.

 

[JBS]

Yeah, this isn’t how it works. That’s 68% over hundreds of games. Not 68% of every small sample size you pick moving forward

 

[Praxit]

..lets suppose Dallas nation is hungry. Should be nice White-Out, or whatever suppose to happen.

BTW.... I think Eagles pull a wild upset this weekend.

 

[jazzcat22]

The #3 seed NFC team is winning it all. Not sure what all the concern is about.

 

[lukin2006]

I like that niners are talking and the Cowboys are preparing to beat them…go cowboys

 

[Diehardblues]

Responding to your last sentence, I sure hope the stadium is filled with more Cowboys fans than it usually has.

Playoffs games usually do.

There isn’t as much time for a playoff game like in regular season for opposing fans to plan their trip and get tickets in one week.

Plus season ticket holders who opt to buy the playoff games usually want to go .

 

[Reid1boys]

Playoffs games usually do.

There isn’t as much time for a playoff game like in regular season for opposing fans to plan their trip and get tickets in one week.

Plus season ticket holders who opt to buy the playoff games usually want to go .

or season ticket holders, which I know of one personally that had lower bowl tickets that he sold for 5 times face value. Have no idea who he sold them to.

 

[Reid1boys]

I like that niners are talking and the Cowboys are preparing to beat them…go cowboys

talking or not makes no difference.

Bet you LOVED when Jimmy J said, " We will win the ball game."

 

[Diehardblues]

Home field advantage is disappearing. The last two years, the home team hasn’t won more than half the time.
The playoff HFA differential is driven by the fact that the better teams are given home games. Not always true, of course—some WCs are better then division champs and some teams get better later in the season while others fade—but certainly true overall.

So yeah, Dallas probably has to knock off at least one team that’s better than they are, but an inherent HFA isn’t the primary factor.

This is a good point. In the playoffs the home team is usually a better team. Unlike in regular season. That’s bound to skew the percentage as well.