dwmyers
Well-Known Member
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If you look at the records of the top teams from week 8 on, you get a list that looks like this:
If you analyze as well for medians, so that you can get rid of puffery such as the Patriots running up scores, you see another (and interesting) picture.
Medians are a more reliable statistic than means, and if you use the rule of thumb that a team with 2 more points of median but one more loss is comparable, then the Pats rank .. uhm, even with Tampa Bay and just above Seattle, tied for 4th to 5th in the league.
Yep, I said it. "my" system predicts Dallas, Green Bay and Pittsburgh as better than the Pats in the second half of this season.
Four more games. Let's see how it goes.
David.
Code:
Rank Team Spread AvSco AvAll Wins Loss Ties
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1 NE 20.20 38.00 17.80 5 - 0 - 0
2 DAL 15.60 33.60 18.00 5 - 0 - 0
3 GB 11.00 30.17 19.17 5 - 1 - 0
4 PIT 9.83 22.67 12.83 5 - 1 - 0
5 TB 8.00 23.40 15.40 4 - 1 - 0
6 SEA 7.40 27.20 19.80 4 - 1 - 0
7 IND 7.00 24.00 17.00 4 - 2 - 0
8 MIN 6.67 27.17 20.50 4 - 2 - 0
9 SD 5.67 24.67 19.00 4 - 2 - 0
10 JAC 4.17 26.83 22.67 4 - 2 - 0
11 CLE 2.33 28.17 25.83 4 - 2 - 0
12 BUF -7.00 16.67 23.67 4 - 2 - 0
13 STL 2.40 23.40 21.00 3 - 2 - 0
14 ARI 2.20 26.80 24.60 3 - 2 - 0
15 NYG -4.20 17.40 21.60 3 - 2 - 0
Code:
Rank Team Spread Median StdErr TrMean
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1 NE 20.20 4.0 +/- 23.10 17.33
2 DAL 15.60 11.0 +/- 10.38 14.00
3 GB 11.00 11.0 +/- 14.17 10.50
4 PIT 9.83 7.0 +/- 12.04 7.75
5 TB 8.00 6.0 +/- 9.46 5.67
6 SEA 7.40 5.0 +/- 10.01 5.33
7 IND 7.00 3.0 +/- 11.35 5.50
8 MIN 6.67 12.5 +/- 24.13 10.50
9 SD 5.67 8.0 +/- 16.31 6.75
10 JAC 4.17 4.0 +/- 13.80 5.00
11 CLE 2.33 3.0 +/- 5.99 2.50
12 BUF -7.00 2.0 +/- 22.63 -2.00
13 STL 2.40 4.0 +/- 8.20 2.33
14 ARI 2.20 6.0 +/- 8.07 2.67
15 NYG -4.20 3.0 +/- 13.03 -1.00Yep, I said it. "my" system predicts Dallas, Green Bay and Pittsburgh as better than the Pats in the second half of this season.
Four more games. Let's see how it goes.
David.
