News: How long does the average draft pick stick around?

[Cowboy06]

I was thinking that with so many late round picks that I would look around at the average time the draft picks make the team and then how many years after that they are still on the roster. Dallas seems to do better with late round selections in my humble opinion, but I would like to see better production from the first few rounds going forward. Take this for what it's worth. Just numbers to me at this point.
RoundYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
199.7%93.5%83.9%77.4%71.0%
296.8%96.1%83.9%74.2%41.9%
396.9%75.1%62.5%37.5%18.8%
491.4%74.3%54.3%34.3%17.2%
581.1%56.8%37.8%24.3%16.2%
670.2%57.5%35.3%20.9%10.6%
758.3%45.8%31.3%21.7%16.7%

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http://www.milehighreport.com/2014/5/13/5713996/how-long-does-the-average-draft-pick-stick-around

 

[Cowboy06]

sorry about the formatting, but check out the link.

 

[Echo9]

That's some pretty cool stuff. The graph shows the trends nicely

 

[Cowboy06]

yeah I thought it was interesting as a league average. But if you draft really well, your picks will last longer. And if you are good at finding UDFA that's the icing on top of the cake. I'd love to get more 2nd and 3rd round picks. This team needs more depth on both lines and we need more safeties..

 

[Idgit]

Interesting that round 2s outperform round 1s there briefly. Also that 3s perform so much like 4s, and 5, 6 ,7s look pretty much the same once they get on the roster.

 

[Risen Star]

I felt confident going in that the Cowboys would find a player or two in the 7th round this year with so many picks. Now looking at the names, I like those odds even more.

 

[Idgit]

I felt confident going in that the Cowboys would find a player or two in the 7th round this year with so many picks. Now looking at the names, I like those odds even more.

If you look at the likelihood of being on a roster after an arbitrary 3rd year, 2 7th's are worth about as much as a 3rd rounder. If you look at year 5, after their rookie deals are over, they're almost equal. Obviously, there's no way to judge snaps played during those spans, but if playing that 5th year is any indication, I'd say those 7ths are generally undervalued.

I'd be curious to see them add UDFAs that make it to the final 53 over 5 years, too.

 

[Cowboy06]

So I wonder if trading back when value is there and teams want to move up isn't such a bad idea. I've been saying for years that you want boring drafts. Boring to me means you draft linemen for offense and defense early and you get your linebackers and other skill players in rounds 3 and 4. With 5,6,7 draft players that fit the mold of success (size, speed, stats) but perhaps played at smaller schools or just need to refine their game like running routes or learning to read the opposing teams,etc. I'm hoping the Cowboys keep drafting well and aren't afraid of letting talent fall to them.

 

[honyock]

Interesting that round 2s outperform round 1s there briefly. Also that 3s perform so much like 4s, and 5, 6 ,7s look pretty much the same once they get on the roster.

The really surprising thing to me was round 2's vs round 3's by year four. At that point a second rounder is twice as likely to still be on the roster as a third rounder. That's a huge discrepancy, much larger than I would have guessed.

And like you say, the difference between round 3 and round 4 is pretty small. Those stats almost make a case for a round three pick not being considered a premium pick.

 

[guag]

And like you say, the difference between round 3 and round 4 is pretty small. Those stats almost make a case for a round three pick not being considered a premium pick.

Don't say that around the folks who didn't take too kindly to us trading away our 3rd this year

 

[honyock]

Don't say that around the folks who didn't take too kindly to us trading away our 3rd this year

I thought about using this stat to bust those who complained about losing the 3rd round pick. But I was one of those who complained.

 

[honyock]

So I wonder if trading back when value is there and teams want to move up isn't such a bad idea. I've been saying for years that you want boring drafts. Boring to me means you draft linemen for offense and defense early and you get your linebackers and other skill players in rounds 3 and 4. With 5,6,7 draft players that fit the mold of success (size, speed, stats) but perhaps played at smaller schools or just need to refine their game like running routes or learning to read the opposing teams,etc. I'm hoping the Cowboys keep drafting well and aren't afraid of letting talent fall to them.

I've been thinking about this idea lately. I was really struck while doing the 2011 draft lookback thread last month, that that draft was basically over for offensive linemen by the end of round two. I don't know if that was an abnormal year or not, but it surprised me that there proved to be so little OL quality after round 2.

I've been thinking about one of these days when I get the time, looking back several years to see how deep offensive line drafts really go on average, in terms of quality picks. I wonder if it will prove the old OL adage of "get your tackles in round one and your guards by round two".

(Okay, it's not really an old adage, I just made it up.)

 

[OhSnap]

Drafting is over rated unless you do it really good or really bad.