How many big reaches are there in a typical draft?

[dwmyers]

I'm looking at Seattle, and James Carpenter's selection, and I'm asking myself, how many big reaches are there in a typical draft? By this I mean a reach of a round or more. 1 a draft? 1 a round, maybe?

I was thinking closer to 1 a round overall. Is that reasonable? Just asking for opinions here.

David.

 

[nathanlt]

I'm looking at Seattle, and James Carpenter's selection, and I'm asking myself, how many big reaches are there in a typical draft? By this I mean a reach of a round or more. 1 a draft? 1 a round, maybe?

I was thinking closer to 1 a round overall. Is that reasonable? Just asking for opinions here.

David.

Well, that depends heavily on how many picks Al Davis and the Raiders have.

 

[xwalker]

Carpenter was not as big of a reach as I initially thought.

Carpenter drafted at #25

cbs sports rank #40 overall
espn (scouts inc) rank #43 overall

It would be interesting to see a list of the biggest reaches in each round of this years draft.

 

[speedkilz88]

Carpenter was not as big of a reach as I initially thought.

Carpenter drafted at #25

cbs sports rank #40 overall
espn (scouts inc) rank #43 overall

It would be interesting to see a list of the biggest reaches in each round of this years draft.

When your talking about the first round and picking a guy that is a half round lower it's a pretty big reach.

 

[Cowboys22]

When your talking about the first round and picking a guy that is a half round lower it's a pretty big reach.

Maybe on the surface it is, but if the team has determined thats who they want and they know he will not be available with their next pick then they have to take him or risk losing him. Sure, they can try and trade down but if they cannot get a deal then they have to take him. Personally, I never consider a pick a reach unless the player would have been available with their next pick. If I'm the one making the decision, I go with the player I want when I'm on the clock even if all the draft sites and so called experts have that player rated lower. If I don't think he will still be their next round, I take him and be happy with it.

 

[AbeBeta]

When your talking about the first round and picking a guy that is a half round lower it's a pretty big reach.

when you are using a website's ranking -- rather than rankings of actual NFL team personnel -- then any conclusions you come to are a big reach -- also it is really problematic to say "oh, 15 spot difference" when the actual difference between those players ranked 25-40 may be negligible

 

[dogberry]

Goose's list might be the place to start, since it is not his view but his take on the league's view.

 

[dwmyers]

Abe,

All I'm asking for here are opinions. I'm entirely happy with the amateur nature of those opinions, and the nature of the data sources on which those opinions are crafted. Since no one is a professional here, I'm not expecting an opinion developed over man-months of research and effort.

That said, a relatively more professional source, such as Ourlads, doesn't have James Carpenter rated as a mid first rounder, and the Ourlads scale differences between other tackles available at the time are significant.

David.

 

[speedkilz88]

Goose's list might be the place to start, since it is not his view but his take on the league's view.

Goose had him at 41. He wasn't considered by anyone that I know of as a first round pick.

 

[dogberry]

I thought he, Carpenter, had good reviews from the Senior Bowl practices? My personal evaluation are sub-amateur.

 

[ThreeandOut]

The LB Mouton that San Diego picked up in the second round was probably the biggest reach in the draft this year. I think he was projected to go around the 6th round. So for those of you complaining about the Carter selection in round 2, it could have been much worse.

 

[burmafrd]

The only Carter selection I will hate for eternity is the one where we took Q.

 

[ThreeandOut]

The only Carter selection I will hate for eternity is the one where we took Q.

This is true.

 

[interestedobserver]

It's only a reach if they bust.

 

[jobberone]

The draft is such a crap shoot many picks will turn out to be 'reaches'. You can only evaluate a draft after several years. I do concede that some picks are immediately effective. I expect Smith and Murray to be 'good' picks this year. Carter will turn into one.

 

[AbeBeta]

Ourlads scale differences between other tackles available at the time are significant.

That's a loaded word there David -- you got actual #s complete with standard deviations to make that claim?