How Not To Draft In The NFL: QBs

[NeonDeion21]

Every year, we hear that the NFL draft is a crap-shoot. And I don’t necessarily disagree with this, but there are certain rules and tips that I would give general managers and front office decision-makers to help make their drafts and teams more successful. Today, we are going to look at drafting quarterbacks in the late rounds. Typically, these are the rounds (4-7) in which teams draft quarterback they want to develop long-term and/or believe they can become the team’s backup quarterback right away.

But I would advise teams to not use a pick on a quarterback after the third round. If your primary goal is to draft a backup quarterback and not have them play, you are already wasting your pick. For the purpose of just a backup quarterback, we have seen that there’s no real success in drafting a backup quarterback as they have no higher of a win percentage than a quarterback in free agency or wherever else they may appear. It also so happens to be that most teams in the NFL don’t pass on franchise quarterbacks multiple times in one draft, therefore there aren’t many “diamonds in the rough” in those later rounds. But let’s dig into this a little further.

Read the rest here: http://all22breakdown.com/how-not-to-draft-in-the-nfl-quarterbacks/

 

[tm1119]

Completely agree. The idea of a "developmental" QB is basically a myth. It happens extremely rarely

 

[NeonDeion21]

Completely agree. The idea of a "developmental" QB is basically a myth. It happens extremely rarely

When the best case scenarios include Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kyle Orton, I'm out.

 

[xwalker]

Every year, we hear that the NFL draft is a crap-shoot. And I don’t necessarily disagree with this, but there are certain rules and tips that I would give general managers and front office decision-makers to help make their drafts and teams more successful. Today, we are going to look at drafting quarterbacks in the late rounds. Typically, these are the rounds (4-7) in which teams draft quarterback they want to develop long-term and/or believe they can become the team’s backup quarterback right away.

But I would advise teams to not use a pick on a quarterback after the third round. If your primary goal is to draft a backup quarterback and not have them play, you are already wasting your pick. For the purpose of just a backup quarterback, we have seen that there’s no real success in drafting a backup quarterback as they have no higher of a win percentage than a quarterback in free agency or wherever else they may appear. It also so happens to be that most teams in the NFL don’t pass on franchise quarterbacks multiple times in one draft, therefore there aren’t many “diamonds in the rough” in those later rounds. But let’s dig into this a little further.

Read the rest here: http://all22breakdown.com/how-not-to-draft-in-the-nfl-quarterbacks/

I tend to agree. If a team see a QB late in the draft that they really like, then fine, but I wouldn't draft one just to draft one. The probabilities are against you.

The problem is that drafting one early could be wasting resources also when you have a starter in place. Under the current CBA it's a big disadvantage to have a rookie 1st round pick sitting on the bench for 2 or 3 years. Rookies are basically salary cap management tools because of their low rookie contracts. You need to get production from them while they're on their rookie contract.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

People wanted to draft a backup in the 1st round.

 

[joseephuss]

I tend to agree. If a team see a QB late in the draft that they really like, then fine, but I wouldn't draft one just to draft one. The probabilities are against you.

The problem is that drafting one early could be wasting resources also when you have a starter in place. Under the current CBA it's a big disadvantage to have a rookie 1st round pick sitting on the bench for 2 or 3 years. Rookies are basically salary cap management tools because of their low rookie contracts. You need to get production from them while they're on their rookie contract.

Interesting point. I think the opposite could be true as well. In the past rookies earned so much money a team was basically forced to play them. Now since the investment is cheaper you can let them sit and learn.

 

[xwalker]

Interesting point. I think the opposite could be true as well. In the past rookies earned so much money a team was basically forced to play them. Now since the investment is cheaper you can let them sit and learn.

Another way to look at it is in terms of draft pick values from 1 year to the next. During the draft a future year's draft pick is generally worth a round lower than a current year's draft pick. During the 2015 draft a basically equal trade would be a 2016 2nd for a 2015 3rd.

Based on this concept, drafting a player in the 3rd is similar to drafting an equivalent player in the 2nd the following year in terms of draft resources. Going 2 years out 2015 3rd = 2016 2nd = 2017 1st. Using this theory you could have just used the 2015 3rd on a ready now player at some other position and wait until 2017 and use a 1st round pick on a QB.

 

[joseephuss]

Another way to look at it is in terms of draft pick values from 1 year to the next. During the draft a future year's draft pick is generally worth a round lower than a current year's draft pick. During the 2015 draft a basically equal trade would be a 2016 2nd for a 2015 3rd.

Based on this concept, drafting a player in the 3rd is similar to drafting an equivalent player in the 2nd the following year in terms of draft resources. Going 2 years out 2015 3rd = 2016 2nd = 2017 1st. Using this theory you could have just used the 2015 3rd on a ready now player at some other position and wait until 2017 and use a 1st round pick on a QB.

Good points.

 

[darthseinfeld]

When the best case scenarios include Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kyle Orton, I'm out.

Beyond round 3 you are extremely lucky if you get a backup/spot starter

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

I'm in favor of drafting a QB about every three years or so. Yeah, you could be wasting a pick but if you are able to hit on one, it's worth it to me. The position is so important, the available options are always so limited, it's worth the risk IMO.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Maybe the old Ron Wolf nonsense about "drafting a QB every year" can be put to bed.

 

[Oh_Canada]

Completely agree, well almost. I'm ok with a sixth or seventh rounder, but not mid rounds. Too many good players available who can help immediately.