Hypothetical: NFL seizes opportunity to invade college football market space

_sturt_

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.. by making in-roads to the college football marketplace. Premise here is that the NIL and the transfer portal ultimately corrode the romance of the college football environment--no loyalty among players to universities will have that effect. Mercenary football may not decapitate the animal, but, like I'm saying, it presents opportunity for a purely-capitalistic institution like the NFL and its owners to grab hold of a potentially lucrative over-time new income stream.

One man's look at what might that look like:

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_sturt_

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Yes, I'm bored. Can't you tell? ;) I'm a Cowboys fan, and for better or worse... it's free agent season... iow, some down time. :D

But yeah, amending the previous thought experiment presented to be something better...

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_sturt_

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Slight new improvement on the previous revision. I'm especially proud of the work on a NFJL logo, but also added a "team division assignments" piece to the mix.

(Can't we sign someone already??? :) )

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_sturt_

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Okay, you know it's getting pretty sparse in terms of things worth spending time talking about when everyone calling into Nick's show gets in on the first try, and in fact, they can't even fill an entire show with callers... right? Or, today, over on the Fan Zone, the only non-leftover thread is something about some retired player hating the Cowboys too much to be supportive of his son's team were he to be drafted by said team.

So, with that context, I find no further room for any apology here... this thread legitimately arguably is the most compelling thread on this entire site today. (Legitimately arguably... though, sure, maybe I can't say "proudly." ;) )

It's made all the more relevant as we see college basketball's feature event so decayed from what it was prior to one-and-done NCAA legislation that effectively has so extracted the upper tier, significant talent from that showcase. And though one may have read the news that NBA is deactivating the Ignite team as suggestive that they're giving up on making in-roads to the post-high-school market place... I'd caution that one might be smart to think the converse is actually true. That is, having a single team composed of ripening talent is recognized as a too little, not too much. Let's realize, only 5 players are on the floor at any one time, of course, and so players at that stage recognize that what they need as much as development in practice time is development during game time... and a lot of talent necessarily gets excluded if there's only one team in the G-League that is getting populated with green fruit. Look for, then, rather an expansion of opportunity for green fruit to play in G-League now, rather than it all being funneled through one roster.

This is part of the paradigm that shapes the model presented here. 24 teams. 30 players per team. If you get drafted and assigned to a team, you're going to be on the field. A lot. Fewer games, yes, but more minutes. And more time between games on-average, so that you're more likely to be able to get over the minor injuries between games, and get to play. You're going to get paid well for someone just out of high school, because the NFL can afford that, because the NFL knows how to generate money, and especially TV money. And you're not going to have any other obligations, like going to class and making grades. You can. You'll have sufficient time off to be able to earn some college credit, if that's what you want to do, but it's not an obligation. And no NCAA rules that mandate you can't be drafted until some certain time.

So, 720 of the best high school prospects... not all, but a lot of the upper tier highest caliber talent... end up taking this new, and tangibly more efficient, route to possibly getting drafted.

And even the college game benefits. Why? Because most of the ones going to college to play football are the ones who truly want to go to college, first, and play football, second. No more, or a whole lot fewer anyway, players abandoning their team in bowl season out of a sense that they need to protect their health. Some, and maybe a whole lot fewer players deciding to transfer for football-career reasons rather than academic-related (and thus, normal career) reasons. And costs associated with NIL, naturally severely reduced because most of the upper tier "names" who may have otherwise represented expense to the school, aren't so elite that they are considered great investments in that way... to the contrary, the NFL is effectively assuming those costs, now, and again, they have a revenue stream that allows them to cover that effectively.

In that scenario, the romance of the college game gets restored. Fans care again, because the players on the field aren't capitalistic mercenaries who have no plausible actual allegiance to the school for whom they play football.

Here we go. Bookmark this thread, and plan to revisit 10 years from now. This model won't be the exact model used, but the motivations driving something like this evolving are pretty extant right now. The only thing that could sabotage this is if, somehow, the SEC and the Big Ten prove to figure out some new system that works for all concerned. Me, I think that if that were a possibility, it would have already emerged. They're racking their brains for a solution, but time says the smart money is on pessimism for that, and in turn, optimism for the NFL to step into the void and do something that, just logically, helps the entire ecology to see improvement.
 

_sturt_

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Quietly, but tangibly, the trajectory is going where the trajectory is going...

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_sturt_

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Sports Business Journal has a paywall, and though I'm very interested in their content, not interested enough to pay for it, sooooooo... fortunately, though here's a regurgitated version of the story on some foreign website that I suppose probably peddles in regurgitating US sports content...

As to the gist of the story, it's hard for me to imagine that the NFL would do anything out of some magnanimous motive... true to the premise that began this thread, I maintain that the NFL could smell blood in the water here, and if the NCAA FBS franchises (because, after all, that's what they are... they just wear the names of schools at this point... ) can't figure out a way to restore some stability and order... and maybe even if they try... I'm persuaded the NFL will be more than willing to create a whole new income stream that is there for the taking.

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_sturt_

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Here we go. Bookmark this thread, and plan to revisit 10 years from now.
Little did I know...


10 years? Did I say 10 years?!?


Looking more like we could see something... maybe not resembling this model, but something... emerge that involves the NFL in a big way within 10 months... who knows, maybe even 10 weeks.

To be fair, this model hypothesizes a situation where NCAA FBS just cannot come together behind a substantive, effective plan. That's still very much a possibility, of course. In that case, the NFL has the good fortune of building something that is to their own liking... and/but also, the misfortune of having to build from the ground up.


Among the problems that the big name brand schools all understand is that there's simply too much development still to be had at these earlier ages for football (as opposed to manfredball or basketball), and the talent inventory pyramid is too flat... and now that exposure is so much more easily accessed, a player who 10 years ago would have eagerly accepted an offer from, say, TAMU, today is measuring instead where he can go to get on the field the earliest, and if that's not TAMU, he may choose TCU, or if the path is cloudy there, he may yet choose, say, Texas State.

Me, I think it's better that the NFL run its own operation completely independent of higher ed. Collaborating with FBS schools, seems to me, puts a lot of other stakeholders in the room, many with very disparate opinions of how they would want to see things done. Might be significant short-term up-front cost, but in the long term, it just seems so much smarter.

But yeah, what's also possible is some form of collaboration...


Two different stories from Florio.


https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profo...-with-college-presidents-to-form-super-league


College football would essentially become pro football. Which it already is, without the levers and protections that create stability for the teams.
The idea would be to embrace a unionized workforce, which would legitimize rules that, in the absence of a multi-employer bargaining unit, are antitrust violations that have been hiding in plain sight, for years. Now that one case after another is proving these violations of federal law — and racking up potential liability that currently exceeds $5 billion and counting — those who get it know that college football needs to break glass in event of emergency, because emergency has arrived.
Two school presidents gave on-the-record quotes to [a media outlet evidently outlawed around these parts] regarding the situation.
“The current model for governing and managing college athletics is dead,” Syracuse chancellor Kent Syverud said.
“We are in an existential crisis,” added West Virginia president Gordon Gee.
They’re right. It’s over. The system is and has been inherently corrupt, and the corruption is being exposed through viable litigation that will continue to blow massive holes into the budgets of conferences and their members.




(Mods, please delete one of these.)
 

_sturt_

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The most important news now on the stove seems to be barely getting talked about, and it's strange to me, given how normally pro football fans are also college football fans.




If a mod sees this, would you please modify the header of the thread?

Given the news of this past week, the term "Hypothetical" is past tense... so my preference would be

No longer hypothetical: NFL seizes opportunity to invade college football market space​

 

csirl

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I think the NFL would benefit from having reserve team football. Expanding practise squads to allow teams to hold onto the 90 players they keep on their books for 8 months of offseason/preseason wouldnt be a big deal from a cost perspective. A lot of players who are on PS or inactive would benefit from playing in real games.

Would make the 'product' better as players replacing injured players would be a lot more game ready.

If they didi the above, there is potential for teams to keep a few ex high school players on the reserve team roster for 3-4 years. Being a full time player, albeit on a NFL PS would make them better prepared for the NFL than 3-4 years in college.
 

ghst187

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Might as well separate college sports from universities, as a taxpayer it’s infuriating that the schools charge so much for tuition while paying their linebackers coach a million dollars. I know I know “the program makes the school money”…but schools also still take taxpayer handouts and trust funds and etc while the average student leaves with 100k loans. Some players are making more in college than they would as a rookie. Some universities like A&M just try to outbid everyone for players. Players may not spend more than one year at a school before another school poaches them with a better offer. The kids need agents now. The players won’t even play their bowl games. Most never went to class.
I’m all for colleges not selling Chris Weber memorabilia without comp to him but wow, this has gone poorly
 

_sturt_

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The newest... and surprisingly, no pay wall...

https://www.sportico.com/leagues/co...-football-super-league-pitch-deck-1234775652/

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"CST’s initiative assumes that a more concentrated structure for big-time college football would provide greater stability and increased media/sponsorship money than its current, fragmented model. Universities would each own a percentage of the league... with revenue sharing that favors the biggest brand names, like Alabama and Notre Dame. The group envisions a prospective players union that will collectively bargain on topics like NIL and transfer restrictions, and is prioritizing competitive equity that is also often absent in the current structure. The February plan is written for a college sports league that would launch in 2027, a timeline that has since drawn skepticism....

"....There are obvious challenges to the Super League happening on this schedule—or at all. For one, it purports to do away with the traditional conference structure at a time when the SEC and Big Ten are consolidating both power and money. Furthermore, the top college conferences all have existing media deals that run through at least the next five years, and all the leagues recently signed off on a six-year, $7.8 billion extension with ESPN to cover an expanded College Football Playoff."



Um. "At all"... to say the least.

The elephant in this room is "prospective players union."

That necessarily infers that players all become employees, subject to all the normal federal and state regulations that accompany employment, in addition to whatever might be collectively bargained. All of them. For every FBS institution. That's inherently significant added expense if we presume scholarships remain part of the compensation package.

And while I'm admittedly no attorney, I'm skeptical that you can restrict players' rights to transfer even if under the guise of that right having been collectively bargained... not sure that that holds up legally.

Add to all this the aspiration to "prioritize competitive equity," and that's automatically going to cause still more apprehension from those schools that perceive they end up losing more than they gain from this.
 

csirl

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ND looks geographically out of place in the north east.
 

_sturt_

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Working theory here is that you're going to have to have a legally-separate revenue sports league, and in other words, no legally-binding control/ownership (for lack of a better term) of the team by a given university and a given team.

Now maybe the team leases the rights to wear the university's name, and that's how the university still benefits from the system. But otherwise, you're just setting yourself up for more of the same lawsuits, effectively rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
 
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