I like the Pickens trade, but I have one football-related red flag

[StarOfGlory]

Look at the QB's he had in Pittsburgh. That says a lot about these stats.
Pickett, Trubisky, Fields and a fading Wilson. Rudolph, and a few others.

True. Not exactly Pro Bowlers except for a washed Wilson.

 

[RS12]

 

[beware_d-ware]

I'd side with Pickens in this case. He was Pittsburgh's #1 receiver while Higgins and Smith got to operate as #2s, and Higgins and Smith both had way better QB situations than Pittsburgh's clown car.

On the football field, I really like this move. CeeDee is a high-volume target hog #1, so Pickens is just fine as a low-volume deep threat #2. Our offense needed more explosiveness in the worst way. Dak throws a good deep ball, so he can maximize Pickens. A 3rd rounder for a one-year rental is a very reasonable trade price, give how expensive WRs are.

But off the football field though, this is everything that's wrong with the Cowboys organization and is why we continue to lose. Schottenheimer gives all this rah-rah talk about character and leadership, and Jerry just trades for a head case anyway, completely undermining his new head coach and ensuring that no one will take him seriously.

Then this head case is going to want a $100M contract in 9 months. Jerry is re-making the same mistake he did with Cooper by not paying Pickens up front, and this contract negotiation is going to go the same way that Cowboys deals always go. Jerry is going to wait until the last minute next spring, then cave and pay Pickens top dollar as long as Pickens plays even halfway OK this season. Why the team doesn't use that same money to extend Tyler Smith right now is a mystery to me.

My problems with this trade are really less about Pickens and more about Jerry.

 

[Kwyn]

If Pickens can become what Tee Higgins or DeVonta Smith is, the trade will be excellent. The one red flag I have relating to football is his catch percentage. A top-tier #2 should have a high catch percentage, showing the defense that he is more of a threat. Pickens has three years into his career, and his catch percentage has decreased every year, unlike Higgins and Smith.

Tee Higgins:
2020-62%
2021-67.3%
2022-67.9%
2023-55.3%
2024-67%
Five-year average: 64.5%

DeVonta Smith:
2021-61.5%
2022-69.9%
2023-72.3%
2024-76.4%
Four-year average: 69.8%

George Pickens:
2022: 61.9%
2023: 59.4%
2024: 57.3%
Three-year average: 59.4%

I know Pickens had to operate as the #1 in Pittsburgh, so that may or may not affect his stats in ways you think. But any way you slice it, that is not a good percentage. To put this into perspective, here are the #1's for Higgins and Smith. Ja'Marr Chase catches at 67.9% average, AJ Brown's last two years in Philly are 68.1%. CeeDee's five-year average is 68.9%. Pickens should be able to have a catch percentage around 66%.

I already see people posting that we have a top five one-two duo in the league. For that to be a solid truth, Pickens should get his catch percentage up to Smith or Higgins level, or at least in the same neighborhood.

He has the talent to do so. Can he keep his head on straight and do it with Dak and our coaching staff? I can't wait to find out the answer to this question. If so, I think we make the playoffs.

Pickens also had terrible QB play.

How can you leave that out?

This is one of those “google some stats till you find one that looks iffy” type of arguments.

 

[Gameover]

back catches

receivers across the league make those type catches every week... Cowboys fans have a meltdown if a Cowboy receiver merely has to extend his hands! Miserable group of people

 

[Gameover]

Pickens also had terrible QB play.

Just watched some video on X and he dropping passes that were right in his hands

 

[Gameover]

He’ll need his leaping skills here

Dak is one the most accurate passers in the league. On the occasions when he's off(he's human) you guys turn it into a federal offense

 

[Kwyn]

Just watched some video on X and he dropping passes that were right in his hands

And did you see some of the ones where he made circus catches?

 

[Proof]

Dak is one the most accurate passers in the league. On the occasions when he's off(he's human) you guys turn it into a federal offense

"i just watched some video and he was throwing balls straight into the dirt or sailing them over the receivers head"

 

[Gameover]

And did you see some of the ones where he made circus catches?

I believe it was from an Eagles fan or a good riddance Steelers fan. So no

 

[DRella]

Ok let me helps some people out here. Pickens numbers have continued to get worse because the QB play in Pittsburgh has continued to get worse. Not to mention the offensive scheme of the Steelers is if not one of the worse probably the worse in football. Inclusive of the CFL, lol!!!!

Secondly let me help those that are chirping the Hurts is an actual great QB, hence Smith numbers. Hurts is one of the least accurate passers in the NFL. The QB in Philly does not make their offence. Their receivers and now their RB is the offence. With as many weapons that Philly has, Hurts still finds ways to screw up. Is he a good QB, yes. Great, no!!! Not even with a Super Bowl. He is at the same level as Nick Foles as a Super Bowl winning QB. The object of the tools and system around him. But not great.

 

[75boyz]

Even with all of the catch percentages of the OPs post being considered I have a few questions of my own:
-I mean it's a HUGE step up over Tolbert no doubt.
-But now how much can Schotty and Dak take away targets from CD and Ferg?
-I mean is this QB and playcaller talented enough to be able to use Pickens correctly?

-And lastly, how does this effect offensive direction that was all about the run game and physicality?

-Wasn't anybody else getting that same McFraud "Run the damn ball and rest the defense" vibe before this trade?

-It seems the more that things change the more they do stay the same.

Cowboys!

 

[Rock423]

Only thing that matters is all those UNDER THROWN and over thrown balls, we now have someone that lives for these moment

Only thing that matters is all those UNDER THROWN and over thrown balls, we now have someone that lives for these moments!!!

Dak is top Ten in NFL history as far as completion percentage. Who sir are you referring too?

 

[America's Cowboy]

Well I hope Dak works on his deep throws then!!

Dak always excels on deep throws when he has 2 good weapons at wide receiver. Look at 2019 when he had Amari Cooper and young Michael Gallup (before CeeDee was drafted). That was Dak's best throwing season (4,902 passing yards) and he excelled on his deep throws.

Dak should be able to get back to completing good deep throws now that he has two very good WR weapons in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.



PS: What Jerry Jones should do is go sign UDFA WR Isaiah Bond right now. That guy is a separation freak on the field. Him and Turpin would tear things up underneath. No defense would be able to stop our passing threat of CeeDee, Pickens, Turpin and Bond.

 

[Jarntt]

If Pickens can become what Tee Higgins or DeVonta Smith is, the trade will be excellent. The one red flag I have relating to football is his catch percentage. A top-tier #2 should have a high catch percentage, showing the defense that he is more of a threat. Pickens has three years into his career, and his catch percentage has decreased every year, unlike Higgins and Smith.

Tee Higgins:
2020-62%
2021-67.3%
2022-67.9%
2023-55.3%
2024-67%
Five-year average: 64.5%

DeVonta Smith:
2021-61.5%
2022-69.9%
2023-72.3%
2024-76.4%
Four-year average: 69.8%

George Pickens:
2022: 61.9%
2023: 59.4%
2024: 57.3%
Three-year average: 59.4%

I know Pickens had to operate as the #1 in Pittsburgh, so that may or may not affect his stats in ways you think. But any way you slice it, that is not a good percentage. To put this into perspective, here are the #1's for Higgins and Smith. Ja'Marr Chase catches at 67.9% average, AJ Brown's last two years in Philly are 68.1%. CeeDee's five-year average is 68.9%. Pickens should be able to have a catch percentage around 66%.

I already see people posting that we have a top five one-two duo in the league. For that to be a solid truth, Pickens should get his catch percentage up to Smith or Higgins level, or at least in the same neighborhood.

He has the talent to do so. Can he keep his head on straight and do it with Dak and our coaching staff? I can't wait to find out the answer to this question. If so, I think we make the playoffs.

OK but those guys had #1s across from them taking attention away. Pickens hasn’t…until this upcoming season

 

[5Stars]

Dak always excels on deep throws when he has 2 good weapons at wide receiver. Look at 2019 when he had Amari Cooper and young Michael Gallup (before CeeDee was drafted). That was Dak's best throwing season (4,902 passing yards) and he excelled on his deep throws.

Dak should be able to get back to completing good deep throws now that he has two very good WR weapons in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.



PS: What Jerry Jones should do is go sign UDFA WR Isaiah Bond right now. That guy is a separation freak on the field. Him and Turpin would tear things up underneath. No defense would be able to stop our passing threat of CeeDee, Pickens, Turpin and Bond.

Not to burst your bubble, but trying to go back six years when Dak was a little younger and not as hurt as he is now does not make the case that Dak is still the same player. He won't last the whole season at his rate of injuries lately.

 

[JayFord]

We needed a Receiver that’s a threat to put up 100 every game to take pressure off CeeDee

If Pickens gets 800 yards this year then CeeDee will threaten 2000

 

[Offsides]

the numbers lie all the time
the QBs he plays with...
interesting you do not want to talk about THEM
no Mahomes, Allen, etc

I have no worries about his ability or talent
now between the ears is another story but your OP is a joke

Is Jerry working on a deal for Mahomes or Allen?

 

[America's Cowboy]

Not to burst your bubble, but trying to go back six years when Dak was a little younger and not as hurt as he is now does not make the case that Dak is still the same player. He won't last the whole season at his rate of injuries lately.

You don't know that.

Dak's injury history is actually not that bad. Check it out...

https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy/injury-history/dak-prescott/7453

His prognosis for 2025 is a high rated 5: meaning expected most durable for 2025.

 

[5Stars]

You don't know that.

Dak's injury history is actually not that bad. Check it out...

https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy/injury-history/dak-prescott/7453

His prognosis for 2025 is a high rated 5: meaning expected most durable for 2025.

I guess we will see.