They gave it a more than fair shake man.. Modern Family is it's lead it, ABC's biggest show by about 80% in the ratings. This week ** pulled a 4.7 and Nashville pulled a 1.8. Truthfully a 1.8 in any other timeslot would probably be enough to get it another season, but that would require it not falling off anymore. However behind the monster that is ** it is a major problem.
For example The Voice usually pulls about a 3.7-4.2 and Revolution(Big hit) retains 2.7-3.0. On Tuesday's Go On retains 2.2-2.5. The acceptable retention for Modern Family would be about the same range as Go On.
Nashville also got massive advertising hyping its premiere and it was a late premiere allowing an extra 2 weeks of hype. Really it had everything going for it. It has stopped losing audience and seemingly is stabilizing. If it remains at 1.8 and they move it somewhere else and it doesn't fall below a 1.6 it may get another season but that is only because everything ABC has debuted this season has failed and most networks renew atleast 1 show a season even if it would be considered a failure - see FOX with "Touch" last year.
Edit - Suburgatory is the direct lead in for Nashville. I continuly made this mistake throughout my argument earlier, however Suburgatory pulls a 2.6 (above the safe range for the retention out of Modern Family I talked about earlier). Nashville may have a shot due to it being relatively the only success ABC has had thus far this season but no one around ABC's offices are proud of the 1.8 it is pulling after it's **/SUB lead in. They will probably move Nashville mid season and use this slot to launch a mid season show. If Nashville maintains a 1.6 on a weaker part of the schedule it should return for S2, if not the cancellation bear will feast on what looked to be a hit.
Source for majority of numbers.
