O.K., here's my spin on it, although some of you may want to refresh your coffee first:
I've done a spreadsheet on all of the possible combinations of wins & losses for the Cowboys, Giants and Commanders. I then analysed each possibility for tie-breakers (2 teams only). This is the result of the Dallas-NY Giants comparison in the race for NFC East supremacy.
Dallas and NY do not play each other again this year, so there are a total of 64 different combinations of Ws & Ls possible (I refer to them as scenarios). Each team has 8 and I numbered them like this:
1) W-W-W
2) W-W-L
3) W-L-W
4) L-W-W
5) L-L-W
6) L-W-L
7) W-L-L
8) L-L-L
I then use the comination of the numbers to represent a single scenario, listing the team currently ranked higher in the standings first. Therefore scenario 5-3 would have NY loosing their next 2 and winning the last, while Dallas wins 2 of 3, loosing at Carolina. More on that later.
Again, there are 64 scenarios, from 1-1 to 8-8. 75% of those scenarios can be described as follows:
"The Giants win 2 of 3, and the Cowboys loose 2 of 3, or both" In all of these 48 scenarios, the Giants would win the divsion. In 42 of the scenarios, the Giants would finish with a better overall record. In the remaining 6, the two teams would finish tied at either 11-5, or 9-7, but the Giants would own all tie-breakers.
Now onto the other 16 scenarios (25% of the total). In 7 scenarios, Dallas would win the division based upon the better overall record at 11-5, or 10-6. Described as follows:
" The NY Giants loose all 3 games, and the Cowboys win any 2 (or more) of 3; or The Cowboys win all 3 games, and the Giants loose any 2 (or more) of their 3."
Finally we are left with 9 scenarios that could lead to the teams finishing tied at 10-6. Those scenarios would be represented by the combinations beginning with 5-6-7 (again, the Giants are first), and ending with 2-3-4.
7 of these 9, including any with a win by NY over Wash, or a Loss by Dallas to Wash, gives the Giants the tie-breaker.
That leaves 2 magical scenarios, the aforementioned 5-3 and 7-3. Each of these scenarios would leave the 2 teams tied at the overall, head-to-head, division, common and conference games level and would then go onto the next tie-breaker "Stength of Victory" (SOV).
The scenarios can be described as: "Dallas looses only to Carolina, while the Giants loose to Washington and either KC or Oak." In Scenario 7-3 the Giants beat KC and loose to Oakland, while in 5-3 they loose to KC and beat Oakland. You decide which scenario is more likely between the 2, but I personally feel 5-3 is a REAL POSSIBILITY! I can easily see it happening.
In either of these scenarios, you have to look at the 10 teams each team had beaten. In 5-3, 7 of the 10 wins would "cancel each other out", while in 7-3, 8 of 10 would. In both scenarios Dallas would need wins by SD and DET (to improve their SOV), while the Giants would be rooting for DEN and NO. Scenario 5-3 would also add KC for Dallas and OAK for the Giants.
Going into the last few weeks the Giants would project to own a very slight Stength of Victory advantage (+1 win) in scenario 7-3, while Dallas has a stronger advantage in scenario 5-3 (+3 wins).
Also worth noting, SD & KC still play each other, as do SD & DEN and OAK & DEN. Also DET plays at NO on X-Mas eve. All of these games could figure into the SOV tie-breaker. Please note my SOV calculations are assuming wins over certains teams by NY/DAL, but not wins by those teams over others remaining on their schedules. (As I write this Dallas has the SOV edge .433 to .419). For more info, see here:
http://www.nfl.com/standings/conference
So, if the Giants loose the next 2, and we win at Wash next week, we'd only need to beat STL at home on New Years to win the Division. The Carolina game wouldn't matter. That my friends is the path of least resistance to an NFC East crown!
