Verdict
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It seems as though we may be hamstrung this year as far as acquiring players in free agency. With that being said, Spencer is an interesting player (and as much as I have bashed Spencer) in that he is a guy who could probably help us on the cap this year.
My understanding of incentive laden deals are considered "likely to be earned" when the player's stats from the previous year meet or exceed the incentives in the contract. Because Spencer really didn't play essentially all year long, is would be very easy to sign him to a contract that the incentives would essentially be easily met, but not considered likely to be earned (pushing the incentive money into next year's cap).
That is something to keep in mind as we move forward.
My understanding of incentive laden deals are considered "likely to be earned" when the player's stats from the previous year meet or exceed the incentives in the contract. Because Spencer really didn't play essentially all year long, is would be very easy to sign him to a contract that the incentives would essentially be easily met, but not considered likely to be earned (pushing the incentive money into next year's cap).
That is something to keep in mind as we move forward.