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http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insi...espn.go.com/nfl/insider/news/story?id=4640598
Article about the Packers troubles
Article about the Packers troubles
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wconn1979
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By Vince Verhei
Football Outsiders
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J. Meric/Getty Images
All well and good, but the team has one win. So, what now?
In Any Given Sunday, Football Outsiders examines the most surprising result of each NFL weekend and where the two teams involved can go from here. This week's edition focuses on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defeating the Green Bay Packers and becoming the final NFL team to record a win in the process.
Green Bay general manager Ted Thompson has put together a solid football team with few weaknesses -- but those weaknesses are so glaring, they all but guarantee the Packers won't win a playoff game this year. Those foibles were in full view Sunday, as the Packers became the first team to lose to Tampa Bay this season.
The first of these weaknesses is obvious: Green Bay gives up sacks at a historically high rate. They have surrendered 37 sacks, most in the league by a wide margin. At Football Outsiders, we measure pass protection by adjusted sack rate, which accounts for down and distance, quality of opposition and (most importantly) number of pass plays. It's no surprise that the Packers have the highest ASR in the league (11.7 percent), but it's even worse that that -- in the 14 years we have kept the data, only nine teams have finished a season with an ASR of 11 percent or higher.
Despite the high sack rate, Green Bay's passing offense is still dangerous, ranking 12th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), FO's exclusive statistic that evaluates all plays based on down, distance, score, opposition and other factors. Is that rare? Very. From the 1996 season (when FO started tracking data) through the 2008 season, 26 teams posted ASRs of 10 percent or higher. (Four teams this year -- the Packers, 49ers, Commanders and Raiders -- are currently above that threshold.) Only five of those teams had above-average passing offenses, and only the 2007 Steelers were better than the Packers have been so far this season.
That list of 26 teams tells a sad tale for Packers fans. Only five made the playoffs, and only two managed to win a playoff game. Those two were both the Atlanta Falcons, in 1998 (the Super Bowl team, led by the 1,846 rushing yards of Jamal Anderson) and 2004 (the Michael Vick/Warrick Dunn/T.J. Duckett team that led the league with 2,672 rushing yards). This year's Packers rank 10th in rushing yards per game and 11th in rushing DVOA, so the running game is neither prolific nor powerful enough to carry an offense by itself.
The problem with all these sacks is that they lead to punts -- and Green Bay has the worst punting unit in the NFL. That's the most notable portion of the Packers' horrible special teams, the other glaring weakness on this team. Mason Crosby has been about average on kickoffs and field goals, but Green Bay has been below average in every other phase of the kicking game: punt and kickoff returns, punt and kickoff coverage, and the punts themselves.
Green Bay made three crucial special-teams mistakes against the Buccaneers. Tramon Williams fumbled a kickoff return, and though he recovered the ball, the Packers still started the second half on their own 4-yard line. Worse, after QB Aaron Rodgers scrambled for a rushing TD that put the Packers up 11 early in the fourth quarter, Green Bay allowed Clifton Smith to return the ensuing kickoff to the Green Bay 17-yard line, setting up Tampa Bay's comeback. Worst of all was the blocked punt in the second quarter, which was returned for a touchdown by Ronde Barber. That was the worst mistake in the game -- and it highlights Green Bay's league-worst punting unit. FO estimates that Green Bay has lost 15.1 points worth of field position compared to what a league-average team would get from punts. That's twice as much negative value as any other team except Denver.
As for the Buccaneers, Josh Freeman is pretty clearly the best option at quarterback right now. His mobility will be needed to play behind Tampa Bay's porous offensive line, and he showed impressive touch and accuracy while throwing on the run against Green Bay. Still, Bucs fans need to keep their expectations in check. It's easy to point to Freeman's two fourth-quarter touchdowns and say he led the team to victory, but the biggest keys to Tampa Bay's win were the big special-teams plays and a 3-1 edge in turnovers, not Freeman's 14-for-31 passing performance.
Besides, it's on defense, not offense, where Tampa Bay has really struggled. For the season, the Bucs rank 24th in offensive DVOA, 22nd passing and 22nd rushing. On defense, though, they rank 31st, ahead of only St. Louis, 29th against the pass and 32nd against the rush. There is one thing the Bucs are good at, though: defending opposing No. 1 wide receivers, where they rank sixth. A lot of the credit there goes to Aqib Talib, who mostly covered Greg Jennings on Sunday. (It's not immediately clear whether Jennings or Donald Driver is the Packers' top receiver these days, but Jennings leads Driver in targets, 61 to 59.) Jennings managed only five catches for 61 yards on 10 targets, including an interception for Talib. Cornerbacks often break out in their third season; that Talib is playing so well in just his second year is a positive sign for the future in Tampa Bay.
Vince Verhei is an author of Football Outsiders.
Football Outsiders
Archive
J. Meric/Getty Images
All well and good, but the team has one win. So, what now?
In Any Given Sunday, Football Outsiders examines the most surprising result of each NFL weekend and where the two teams involved can go from here. This week's edition focuses on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defeating the Green Bay Packers and becoming the final NFL team to record a win in the process.
Green Bay general manager Ted Thompson has put together a solid football team with few weaknesses -- but those weaknesses are so glaring, they all but guarantee the Packers won't win a playoff game this year. Those foibles were in full view Sunday, as the Packers became the first team to lose to Tampa Bay this season.
The first of these weaknesses is obvious: Green Bay gives up sacks at a historically high rate. They have surrendered 37 sacks, most in the league by a wide margin. At Football Outsiders, we measure pass protection by adjusted sack rate, which accounts for down and distance, quality of opposition and (most importantly) number of pass plays. It's no surprise that the Packers have the highest ASR in the league (11.7 percent), but it's even worse that that -- in the 14 years we have kept the data, only nine teams have finished a season with an ASR of 11 percent or higher.
Despite the high sack rate, Green Bay's passing offense is still dangerous, ranking 12th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), FO's exclusive statistic that evaluates all plays based on down, distance, score, opposition and other factors. Is that rare? Very. From the 1996 season (when FO started tracking data) through the 2008 season, 26 teams posted ASRs of 10 percent or higher. (Four teams this year -- the Packers, 49ers, Commanders and Raiders -- are currently above that threshold.) Only five of those teams had above-average passing offenses, and only the 2007 Steelers were better than the Packers have been so far this season.
That list of 26 teams tells a sad tale for Packers fans. Only five made the playoffs, and only two managed to win a playoff game. Those two were both the Atlanta Falcons, in 1998 (the Super Bowl team, led by the 1,846 rushing yards of Jamal Anderson) and 2004 (the Michael Vick/Warrick Dunn/T.J. Duckett team that led the league with 2,672 rushing yards). This year's Packers rank 10th in rushing yards per game and 11th in rushing DVOA, so the running game is neither prolific nor powerful enough to carry an offense by itself.
The problem with all these sacks is that they lead to punts -- and Green Bay has the worst punting unit in the NFL. That's the most notable portion of the Packers' horrible special teams, the other glaring weakness on this team. Mason Crosby has been about average on kickoffs and field goals, but Green Bay has been below average in every other phase of the kicking game: punt and kickoff returns, punt and kickoff coverage, and the punts themselves.
Green Bay made three crucial special-teams mistakes against the Buccaneers. Tramon Williams fumbled a kickoff return, and though he recovered the ball, the Packers still started the second half on their own 4-yard line. Worse, after QB Aaron Rodgers scrambled for a rushing TD that put the Packers up 11 early in the fourth quarter, Green Bay allowed Clifton Smith to return the ensuing kickoff to the Green Bay 17-yard line, setting up Tampa Bay's comeback. Worst of all was the blocked punt in the second quarter, which was returned for a touchdown by Ronde Barber. That was the worst mistake in the game -- and it highlights Green Bay's league-worst punting unit. FO estimates that Green Bay has lost 15.1 points worth of field position compared to what a league-average team would get from punts. That's twice as much negative value as any other team except Denver.
As for the Buccaneers, Josh Freeman is pretty clearly the best option at quarterback right now. His mobility will be needed to play behind Tampa Bay's porous offensive line, and he showed impressive touch and accuracy while throwing on the run against Green Bay. Still, Bucs fans need to keep their expectations in check. It's easy to point to Freeman's two fourth-quarter touchdowns and say he led the team to victory, but the biggest keys to Tampa Bay's win were the big special-teams plays and a 3-1 edge in turnovers, not Freeman's 14-for-31 passing performance.
Besides, it's on defense, not offense, where Tampa Bay has really struggled. For the season, the Bucs rank 24th in offensive DVOA, 22nd passing and 22nd rushing. On defense, though, they rank 31st, ahead of only St. Louis, 29th against the pass and 32nd against the rush. There is one thing the Bucs are good at, though: defending opposing No. 1 wide receivers, where they rank sixth. A lot of the credit there goes to Aqib Talib, who mostly covered Greg Jennings on Sunday. (It's not immediately clear whether Jennings or Donald Driver is the Packers' top receiver these days, but Jennings leads Driver in targets, 61 to 59.) Jennings managed only five catches for 61 yards on 10 targets, including an interception for Talib. Cornerbacks often break out in their third season; that Talib is playing so well in just his second year is a positive sign for the future in Tampa Bay.
Vince Verhei is an author of Football Outsiders.