Interesting Peter King tidbit about a team possibly trading up

[CIWhitefish]

According to SI's Peter King, the Falcons are trying to trade up from No. 30 in the first round of the draft.
Thomas Dimitroff is annually one of the most aggressive general managers on draft day, especially when there's a player he wants -- such as Julio Jones in 2011. This year, the Falcons have holes at cornerback and pass rusher. They'd have to really reach to get into the Dee Milliner range, but Florida State's Xavier Rhodes or Washington's Desmond Trufant could be realistic. A darkhorse name to watch is Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert as the Falcons look toward the post-Tony Gonzalez era. Note that Dimitroff has 11 total picks to work with.

Per Rotoworld.com

Interesting to say the least. I know our history of trading back isn't good but at least there may be suitors if our targets are gone at 18.

 

[Staggerlee]

Not a fan of a trade-down to that low but if we move from 18 to 30 I want their second rounder. If the points are a little off we can swap 3rds or 4ths or something.

 

[TheRomoSexual]

Not a fan of a trade-down to that low but if we move from 18 to 30 I want their second rounder. If the points are a little off we can swap 3rds or 4ths or something.

30 and 60 for 18 is pretty even value...only off by 20 points or so.

 

[Nation]

In the 2007 NFL draft we were able to trade the 22nd pick for the 36th overall and a 2008 1st rounder. From there we were able to move 36, the 87th, and the 159th for 26th overall.

So essentially moving down four picks, plus a 3rd and 5th rounder, netted us a future first round pick.

Moving down might work sometimes and it might not other times. Same for moving up. But judging the merits of it shouldn't be done based on one bad year or one bad trade.

 

[morasp]

30 and 60 for 18 is pretty even value...only off by 20 points or so.

Try to get a seventh for the 20 points if they have one.

 

[JeffInDC]

Try to get a seventh for the 20 points if they have one.

It's 20 points in Dallas' favor (Pick 18 = 900) vs. (30 = 620 & 60 = 300).

 

[jterrell]

In the 2007 NFL draft we were able to trade the 22nd pick for the 36th overall and a 2008 1st rounder. From there we were able to move 36, the 87th, and the 159th for 26th overall.

So essentially moving down four picks, plus a 3rd and 5th rounder, netted us a future first round pick.

Moving down might work sometimes and it might not other times. Same for moving up. But judging the merits of it shouldn't be done based on one bad year or one bad trade.

No, but we can look at basic facts like:

The last time Dallas didn't have a pick in the top 30 they had the terrible Jason Williams lead draft class.

The time before that was the 2004 draft class which produced Julius Jones and Jacob Rogers in r2. ---that draft did produce probably the best 7th round draft class in our history with pat crayton, jacques reeves and nate jones.

All in all the draft you mention makes sense here. Dallas has traded down low twice before. Both times they traded back up to get guys in the 20s. Spencer at 26 and Dez at 24. It seems those were tremendous targets that also had no shot of making 30.

If I am moving down to 30 ATL better pay top dollar. You can forget matching value charts. I want 30, 60, the low 4th rounder and a late 7th to boot. I'd toss them a 6th next year when we should receive some compensatory picks. Reduces their load this year(8 picks) and ups ours(9 picks).

Crazy? I don't think so. ATL is trying to move up(IF THEY TRY) for a player they feel has an r1 grade. That we understand ends about where Dallas picks(at least form a Dallas POV). If you then drop to the middle of the r2 rated guys I want to really profit. ATL doesn't need 11 new players. They need a couple major pieces to push them over the top. They want to win it all and like now. They can use Eifert day 1. Same with Xavier Rhodes. And they can't wait til 22 or so to get those guys. The last is generally predicted to fall off the board around 20. Dallas SHOULD draft a starter at 18. At 30 they MIGHT draft a starter.

And once I am down at 30 loaded with picks I can pay the going rate to move back up to say 26 or 27. Haul in a Datone Jones/DJ Fluker/Sylvester Williams/Kenny Vaccaro if they still sit there. Much like we did with Spencer and Dez. Identifying guys with pure NFL talent who may not be day 1 starters.

 

[DFWJC]

If I am moving down to 30 ATL better pay top dollar. You can forget matching value charts. I want 30, 60, the low 4th rounder and a late 7th to boot. I'd toss them a 6th next year when we should receive some compensatory picks. Reduces their load this year(8 picks) and ups ours(9 picks).

.

I see what you're saying.
To trade down that far you would play hardball.

That means:
1) Atlanta would not then be trading with Dallas and
2) Atlanta could easily find a team that would give them a better deal

Fair enough
Dallas is sitting ok at 18 and nobody is forcing anyone to trade up or down, plus there are 32 teams in the league and not just two.

I do think the earlier thought in this thread that if you trade way down, that does not at all mean you draft there. You can always try to trade back up if needed.

 

[JD_KaPow]

All in all the draft you mention makes sense here. Dallas has traded down low twice before. Both times they traded back up to get guys in the 20s. Spencer at 26 and Dez at 24. It seems those were tremendous targets that also had no shot of making 30.

We didn't trade down in 2010. We had pick 27 (as we reached the divisional round of the playoffs the year before) and traded up to 24 for Dez.

 

[HoosierCowboy]

we don't have to trade--so sit tight and take the best lineman available or jump on a great offer

 

[elcocinero]

If Cooper and Warmack are gone, I am all for trading back.

 

[jterrell]

I see what you're saying.
To trade down that far you would play hardball.

That means:
1) Atlanta would not then be trading with Dallas and
2) Atlanta could easily find a team that would give them a better deal

Fair enough
Dallas is sitting ok at 18 and nobody is forcing anyone to trade up or down, plus there are 32 teams in the league and not just two.

I do think the earlier thought in this thread that if you trade way down, that does not at all mean you draft there. You can always try to trade back up if needed.

Pretty fair assessment.

Last year we traded up because we got GREAT value to do so. The Rams had claimed a great value with the Skins and thus offered us the same. I am sure the Rams had great offers for other teams too but we were the ones who took the deal.

I'd only move down for similar great values. You certainly don't move down 13 spots to target a specific player. And you can't move that far down because you have 3 or 4 guys rated equally. That is a serious backing out of there move and means I need real value.

If you move down for trade chart value then you are going to have a harder time moving back up. That's why you get the leverage on the front end of those trades like the Rams did.

 

[jterrell]

We didn't trade down in 2010. We had pick 27 (as we reached the divisional round of the playoffs the year before) and traded up to 24 for Dez.

Good note. I remembered the move up but incorrectly assumed it was form an earlier trade down. Still hard to believe even when I look we were good enough in 2009 to only originally draft 27th overall... sheesh.

 

[Pabst]

Normally, I'm not for trading down. There's a lot of risk in getting too "cute" and having someone grab the player you want.

That having been said, I think this might be the year to do it, for two contrasting reasons.

If you can swing the deal where you get a first next year (Don't think you could, but devil's advocate), then you sit in really good position to make a move next year for one of the very elite talents that are expected to be available (Clowney in particular, possibly Manziel, although the Romo deal makes that less likely).

Conversely, you could also trade down and pick up an extra second/third in this draft. The general consensus seems to be that this is a deep draft with an overwhelming amount of 2nd round graded players, more than there is picks in that round. So you're looking at getting a better player for that slot than you would in a more traditional draft year. So maybe that's a reason to trade down.

Now, personally, if Warmack or Cooper is there, I think you take him and don't look back. But if they're gone, you have to look at the possibility.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Normally, I'm not for trading down. There's a lot of risk in getting too "cute" and having someone grab the player you want.

That having been said, I think this might be the year to do it, for two contrasting reasons.

If you can swing the deal where you get a first next year (Don't think you could, but devil's advocate), then you sit in really good position to make a move next year for one of the very elite talents that are expected to be available (Clowney in particular, possibly Manziel, although the Romo deal makes that less likely).

Conversely, you could also trade down and pick up an extra second/third in this draft. The general consensus seems to be that this is a deep draft with an overwhelming amount of 2nd round graded players, more than there is picks in that round. So you're looking at getting a better player for that slot than you would in a more traditional draft year. So maybe that's a reason to trade down.

Now, personally, if Warmack or Cooper is there, I think you take him and don't look back. But if they're gone, you have to look at the possibility.

We are not going to take a QB in the 1st round next year, all we would be doing is grooming him for somebody else. Romo has to be on this team for at least the next 4 seasons before you can even think about doing anything with his contract.

If we restructure Romo's contract next year, it makes it even harder. You are looking at a min of 5 yrs before you can do anything with Romo.

So drafting one of the top QBs is not going to happen fellas, that decision was made when we handed Romo $100 million.

 

[jterrell]

Normally, I'm not for trading down. There's a lot of risk in getting too "cute" and having someone grab the player you want.

That having been said, I think this might be the year to do it, for two contrasting reasons.

If you can swing the deal where you get a first next year (Don't think you could, but devil's advocate), then you sit in really good position to make a move next year for one of the very elite talents that are expected to be available (Clowney in particular, possibly Manziel, although the Romo deal makes that less likely).

Conversely, you could also trade down and pick up an extra second/third in this draft. The general consensus seems to be that this is a deep draft with an overwhelming amount of 2nd round graded players, more than there is picks in that round. So you're looking at getting a better player for that slot than you would in a more traditional draft year. So maybe that's a reason to trade down.

Now, personally, if Warmack or Cooper is there, I think you take him and don't look back. But if they're gone, you have to look at the possibility.

I think what you say about seeing who is gone at 18 is obviously consideration 1.

Where I logically disagree with you on the reasoning or value.

If we concede that there are say 45 r2 rated guys then the pick at 30 has actually a much smaller than normal value. If guys 17-62 all rate r2 why trade into the middle of that pile? That's not value.

Dallas feels there are 16 r1 guys apparently. If so and any two teams reach (for say QB, CB or WR) or disagree with our board we have a shot to get an r1 talent.

But even if we do not and the board falls according to Hoyle you have to think a few teams will have players there at 18 that they consider r1 talent. And if they do why not make them pay the premium to avoid the glut of r2 guys which every team will get a shot at anyway considering it lasts well over 30 selections.

 

[AMERICAS_FAN]

Dallas will have a short list of players worthy of the 18th pick that they will select from if any of them are there when its time to pick. The only way I see them trading down is if those players are NOT there at 18.

 

[Pabst]

I think what you say about seeing who is gone at 18 is obviously consideration 1.

Where I logically disagree with you on the reasoning or value.

If we concede that there are say 45 r2 rated guys then the pick at 30 has actually a much smaller than normal value. If guys 17-62 all rate r2 why trade into the middle of that pile? That's not value.

Dallas feels there are 16 r1 guys apparently. If so and any two teams reach (for say QB, CB or WR) or disagree with our board we have a shot to get an r1 talent.

But even if we do not and the board falls according to Hoyle you have to think a few teams will have players there at 18 that they consider r1 talent. And if they do why not make them pay the premium to avoid the glut of r2 guys which every team will get a shot at anyway considering it lasts well over 30 selections.

I agree with a lot of what you say. Again, I would prefer to sit tight at 18. I would present that, conversely, if all the round 1 players are gone by 18, then that 18 selection has a lot less value as well, and not much more than 30. It's part of the draft game, and we won't know how it plays out until next tuesday.

On the topic of R2 graded players, I mostly wanted to bring the discussion towards the possibility of getting an extra one in the 3rd round, should we finagle another selection. Of course, unless the draft board get's leaked again this year, we'll have very little knowledge if this occurs.

As before, mostly just talking devil's advocate. I absolutely concede your points regarding second round selection value.

 

[nalam]

30 and 60 for 18 is pretty even value...only off by 20 points or so.

Even better would be swap the 18th for the 30th and get Justin Blalock ( who is a plano native ) which would solve our guard issue and we can concentrate on the BPA approach.

 

[BIGDen]

Dallas will have a short list of players worthy of the 18th pick that they will select from if any of them are there when its time to pick. The only way I see them trading down is if those players are NOT there at 18.

Or if a few are there and they only move back a few spots.